NFL 18/19

chrisdon16

Premiership Player
Mar 20, 2013
3,254
2,155
AFL Club
Essendon
W7: 6-11-0 -5.5u
YTD: 19-28-0 -10.65u
O/A: 159-150-4 -4.97u

Brutal sport to bet on. Could of easily been 11-6 some really close losses, icing on the cake was a TD + a 2 point conversation with 10 seconds to go today to blow the cover.
 

Sabbathen

Club Legend
Aug 17, 2016
1,006
1,010
AFL Club
West Coast
More importantly what’s your closing line value been like? Doesn’t matter how many “close beats” you have had(you’ve probably had just as many that ended up as wins) if you are mainly betting early in the week and not consistently beating the closing line you have no hope.
 

chrisdon16

Premiership Player
Mar 20, 2013
3,254
2,155
AFL Club
Essendon
More importantly what’s your closing line value been like? Doesn’t matter how many “close beats” you have had(you’ve probably had just as many that ended up as wins) if you are mainly betting early in the week and not consistently beating the closing line you have no hope.
Actually had a close look at the losing lines and the majority of the bets are beating them. And definitely not had just as many close wins as losses....
 

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Sabbathen

Club Legend
Aug 17, 2016
1,006
1,010
AFL Club
West Coast
Actually had a close look at the losing lines and the majority of the bets are beating them. And definitely not had just as many close wins as losses....
No you are not sorry, Pinnacle's closing line is the only thing you should be comparing to.
By my quick count, this year you are 18-16-13 beating Pinnacle's closing line.
The problem is when you get the same number the line closes at. That would be fine if you were getting atleast $2 odds every time you bet but no one can.
When you add up a large sample of bets where you are taking the same number as the line closes but only getting on average $1.90, you are going to slowly but surely lose money. You will hit periods of variance where you get lucky and you will hit periods where you are unlucky but mathematically, you will not be profitable when you have such low closing line value. I hope you understand the theory behind my post, it's not meant to mean or trolling but to help you understand that it's not the "bad beats" that are costing you.
 

chrisdon16

Premiership Player
Mar 20, 2013
3,254
2,155
AFL Club
Essendon
W8

PHI@JAX - u42 ($1.91 SB)
Eagles -3 ($1.94 TS)
TB@CIN - o53.5 ($1.82 SB)
Bengals -4 ($1.91 TS)
Chiefs -10 ($1.91 SB)
Rams -8.5 (1.94 TS)
BAL@CAR - u43 ($1.94 TS)
49ers ML ($1.97 TS)
 

NonPhixion

DevilFish
Mar 27, 2018
1,836
1,832
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
I like Pointsbet's promo for Friday's game.
Deshaun Watson 300+ passing yards & Texans win @3.50
He has hit 4/7 so far this year and coming up against Miami who have a bad D and at home. good value
 

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kaiserchief13

Brownlow Medallist
Jul 12, 2011
23,604
15,502
AFL Club
West Coast
Other Teams
Eagles, Lakers, Bayern, Trojans
You are almost always better to buy half a point back when the line is 3.5 and take 3 instead. NFL winning margin of exactly 3 points is disproportionately high(close to 20% of games).
Think Eagles will win by a TD or more anyway

33-20
 

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