NFL 18/19 | Page 3 | BigFooty

NFL 18/19

Discussion in 'Punting Board' started by chrisdon16, Oct 2, 2018.

  1. chrisdon16

    chrisdon16 Premiership Player

    Essendon
    Joined:
    Mar 13
    Posts:
    3,013
    Location:
    Launceston, TAS
    W7: 6-11-0 -5.5u
    YTD: 19-28-0 -10.65u
    O/A: 159-150-4 -4.97u

    Brutal sport to bet on. Could of easily been 11-6 some really close losses, icing on the cake was a TD + a 2 point conversation with 10 seconds to go today to blow the cover.
     

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  2. Sabbathen

    Sabbathen All Australian

    West Coast
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    More importantly what’s your closing line value been like? Doesn’t matter how many “close beats” you have had(you’ve probably had just as many that ended up as wins) if you are mainly betting early in the week and not consistently beating the closing line you have no hope.
     
  3. chrisdon16

    chrisdon16 Premiership Player

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    Actually had a close look at the losing lines and the majority of the bets are beating them. And definitely not had just as many close wins as losses....
     
  4. chrisdon16

    chrisdon16 Premiership Player

    Essendon
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    Location:
    Launceston, TAS
    W8

    Dolphins @ Texans - u45 ($1.85 SB)
     
  5. Sabbathen

    Sabbathen All Australian

    West Coast
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    No you are not sorry, Pinnacle's closing line is the only thing you should be comparing to.
    By my quick count, this year you are 18-16-13 beating Pinnacle's closing line.
    The problem is when you get the same number the line closes at. That would be fine if you were getting atleast $2 odds every time you bet but no one can.
    When you add up a large sample of bets where you are taking the same number as the line closes but only getting on average $1.90, you are going to slowly but surely lose money. You will hit periods of variance where you get lucky and you will hit periods where you are unlucky but mathematically, you will not be profitable when you have such low closing line value. I hope you understand the theory behind my post, it's not meant to mean or trolling but to help you understand that it's not the "bad beats" that are costing you.
     
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  6. chrisdon16

    chrisdon16 Premiership Player

    Essendon
    Joined:
    Mar 13
    Posts:
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    Location:
    Launceston, TAS
    W8

    PHI@JAX - u42 ($1.91 SB)
    Eagles -3 ($1.94 TS)
    TB@CIN - o53.5 ($1.82 SB)
    Bengals -4 ($1.91 TS)
    Chiefs -10 ($1.91 SB)
    Rams -8.5 (1.94 TS)
    BAL@CAR - u43 ($1.94 TS)
    49ers ML ($1.97 TS)
     
  7. chrisdon16

    chrisdon16 Premiership Player

    Essendon
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    Location:
    Launceston, TAS
    W8

    Jets @ Bears - o45.5 ($1.91 TS)
     
  8. NonPhixion

    NonPhixion Senior List

    Collingwood
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    I like Pointsbet's promo for Friday's game.
    Deshaun Watson 300+ passing yards & Texans win @3.50
    He has hit 4/7 so far this year and coming up against Miami who have a bad D and at home. good value
     
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  9. chrisdon16

    chrisdon16 Premiership Player

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    Location:
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    W8

    Seahawks +3 ($1.93 TS)
     
  10. chrisdon16

    chrisdon16 Premiership Player

    Essendon
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    Location:
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    W8

    Washington ML ($1.93 TS)
     
  11. chrisdon16

    chrisdon16 Premiership Player

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    Location:
    Launceston, TAS
    W8

    Colts -3 ($1.85 TS)
     

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  12. kaiserchief13

    kaiserchief13 Brownlow Medallist

    West Coast
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    20,345
    Location:
    Melbourne
    Other Teams:
    Eagles, Lakers, Bayern, Trojans
    Eagles -3.5/over 43.5 vs Jags @ 3.30

    NYJ +8.5/over 45.5 vs Bears @ 5.00
     
  13. Sabbathen

    Sabbathen All Australian

    West Coast
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    You are almost always better to buy half a point back when the line is 3.5 and take 3 instead. NFL winning margin of exactly 3 points is disproportionately high(close to 20% of games).
     
  14. kaiserchief13

    kaiserchief13 Brownlow Medallist

    West Coast
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    Other Teams:
    Eagles, Lakers, Bayern, Trojans
    Think Eagles will win by a TD or more anyway

    33-20
     
  15. kaiserchief13

    kaiserchief13 Brownlow Medallist

    West Coast
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    Other Teams:
    Eagles, Lakers, Bayern, Trojans
    Eagles really disappointing. Only 24 pts with that offense....
     
  16. NonPhixion

    NonPhixion Senior List

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    Mark Ingram o49.5 rushing yards
     
  17. NonPhixion

    NonPhixion Senior List

    Collingwood
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    Josh Gordon 50+ receiving yards + Patriots win @2.10
     
  18. chrisdon16

    chrisdon16 Premiership Player

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    Fairly brutal one boys. 15-3 going into the 4th, TD in the last 30 seconds.
     

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  19. chrisdon16

    chrisdon16 Premiership Player

    Essendon
    Joined:
    Mar 13
    Posts:
    3,013
    Location:
    Launceston, TAS
    W8: 5-7-1 -2.55u
    YTD: 24-35-1 -13.2u
    O/A: 164-157-5 -7.52u
     
  20. chrisdon16

    chrisdon16 Premiership Player

    Essendon
    Joined:
    Mar 13
    Posts:
    3,013
    Location:
    Launceston, TAS
    W9

    Redskins -1 ($1.85 SB)
    HOU@DEN - u47 ($1.80 SB)
     
  21. chrisdon16

    chrisdon16 Premiership Player

    Essendon
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    Mar 13
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    Location:
    Launceston, TAS
    W9

    Rams ML (2.11 TS)
     
  22. chrisdon16

    chrisdon16 Premiership Player

    Essendon
    Joined:
    Mar 13
    Posts:
    3,013
    Location:
    Launceston, TAS
    W9

    Chiefs -8 ($1.85 SB)

    Falcons @ Redskins - u47.5 ($1.80 TS)
     
  23. chrisdon16

    chrisdon16 Premiership Player

    Essendon
    Joined:
    Mar 13
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    Location:
    Launceston, TAS
    W9

    Panthers -6 ($1.92 TS)
     
  24. chrisdon16

    chrisdon16 Premiership Player

    Essendon
    Joined:
    Mar 13
    Posts:
    3,013
    Location:
    Launceston, TAS
    W9

    Titans @ Cowboys - u40.5 ($1.91 SB)
     
  25. chrisdon16

    chrisdon16 Premiership Player

    Essendon
    Joined:
    Mar 13
    Posts:
    3,013
    Location:
    Launceston, TAS
    W9

    Raiders @ 49ers - o43.5 ($1.91 SB)
     
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