No Passengers - Week 3

[54Dogs]

Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

WELCOME

This thread contains excerpts from the No Passengers discussion occurring last week in preparation for their first episode released tomorrow...
- Kildonan


Today 19:19
54Dogs

I was hoping to post this last night but have been away at a conference. Would be happy to open up debate around this but was thinking we could set aside Wednesday night for discussion around potential captains for the upcoming week. Myself or another poster can open this up with some historical data around players recent history against this weeks opponents. Hopefully this can open up some commentary around the prospects for each.

I am already a day late for this round but here are the recent scores these players have had against this weeks opponents. The last score listed is the most recent.

JB - 20,111,106
Volt - 86,119,104
Pav - 89,84,128
GAblett - 55,63,92
Corey - 91,79,108
Bartell - 109,75,150
Chappy - 143,78,96
KCornes - 121,71,61
CCornes - 125,51,129
BJ - 44,141,107
Swan - 136,123,109
Cox - 111,96,102
Cross - 93,94,102

If you need stats for players I have not included let me know and I will include next week but that should cover most. JB and CCornes low scores were through injury as they did not play the following week.

I would say if you have Swan he is the pick, unfortunately I don't. Chadwick looks the pick this week with the risk over Cox. KCornes last 2 low scores against the Lions are interesting. Can anyone rember his role (tagging Black possibly?) but may well be a steer clear. Could also be a sign not to trade him in for a few weeks if he has a poor score this week.

Happy to open up any discussion about whether this exercise is worthwhile or not.

I have moved this across from the social board for those who missed it. Sorry for the double up if you have already seen it. Interested in any feedback on this weeks captains choices.

 

[Jolldo87]

Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

Good post, i think there should be a captains thread each week in this section of the board.

If i had Bartel or Swan i would probably select one of them but i don't so at this stage i'm going with Chad Cornes.

Other Possible Selection:
J. Bowden - 73,95,94,70,49 (any reason why that is so bad?)

 

[banana_bus]

Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

Good post, i think there should be a captains thread each week in this section of the board.

If i had Bartel or Swan i would probably select one of them but i don't so at this stage i'm going with Chad Cornes.

Other Possible Selection:
J. Bowden - 73,95,94,70,49 (any reason why that is so bad?)

People are saying he may be dropped, the footy show is hinting at it.

Im looking at Pavlich, Cross and CCornes this week.

The tigers will struggle with a match up for him. Chad is chad, and the game is at AAMI. Cross is always consistent.

Note also that Aurora Stadium is the 2nd highest scoring ground (behind Skilled Stadium). Maybe have a look at someone there.

 

[iamthestig]

Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

People are saying he may be dropped, the footy show is hinting at it.

Im looking at Pavlich, Cross and CCornes this week.

The tigers will struggle with a match up for him. Chad is chad, and the game is at AAMI. Cross is always consistent.

Note also that Aurora Stadium is the 2nd highest scoring ground (behind Skilled Stadium). Maybe have a look at someone there.

I think the bold ones are the best options but I wouldn't be suprised to see JB tear Port up. I don't see who can stop him, and the Lions have a good record at Footy Park (AAMI for those who have sold out). It would take big kahunas to do it, and I won't be picking him, but I just thought I would throw it out there.

Edit: Maybe the kahunas required are actually a little smaller than I first thought. Brown only has an average of 71 against Port but his last 2 games have been 100+ and with no Wakelin he should eat the Port defence.

 

[happy_eagle]

Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

Captain stats

Pavlich- averages 100.3 in last 3 outings against tigers
2007: 128
2006: 89
2005: 85
Should tear the Richmond defence, minus bowden, apart. will go up ground if needed

Cross- averages 99 in last 3 outings against bombers
2008(nab): 101
2007: 92
2006: 99

Always good for a 100, but the lack of stoppages may hurt him, from getting the 120+ needed

Chad Cornes- averages 101 in last 3 outings against brisbane
2007: 129
2006: 51
2005: 121

Looks like a good option, behind pavlich. That 50 may scare people off

Corey- averages 99 in last 3 outings against St Kilda
2008: 112
2007:108
2006: 79

Will be sure to rack it up, but i dont think many have him

Bartel- averages 111 in last 3 outings against st kilda
2007: 150
2006:75
2005: 109

If you had bartel, you would go with him

Swan- averages 122 in last 3 outings against blues
2007:109
2006: 123
2005:136

Even when this bloke is quiet, he still racks em up. Has absolutely dominated the blues in the past, and if he gets TOG, then should be a good choice

 

[Jolldo87]

Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

Captain stats
Chad Cornes- averages 101 in last 3 outings against brisbane
2007: 129
2006: 51
2005: 121

Looks like a good option, behind pavlich. That 50 may scare people off

The 50 was an injury game, he didn't play the next week.

 

[Mordecai]

Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

I've been meaning to praise on your name "iamthestig". That program is great - i love their trip to antartica in the toyota hilux.

I'm hoping to start discussion on trading. I feel my knowledge on specific players and their form is good but when to bring them in is always a point of conjecture for me.

We only get 2 trades per round and the aim is to get your team as you want it as early as possible. It's a game of brinkmanship because we still need to let our rookies increase in cash, which takes time.

If we take it that rookies top out at around round 8 at a minimum then I'm guessing some our trading heavily at around round 6. For this reason I am guessing it is better to wait for more value and let Adcock and Van Berlo (for this round) return back up the charts never to be seen again.

From this I also think it is ok to do sideways trades (if it is allowed in your trade budget) of rookies. Hartlett to Gamble or Cotchin to Palmer for example. These rookies can be used to fuel other trades in round 12 after you have used all your other rookies.

So from this, I am lead to believe you keep trades to a minimum from now to approximately round 6-7.

 

[banana_bus]

Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

I've been meaning to praise on your name "iamthestig". That program is great - i love their trip to antartica in the toyota hilux.

I'm hoping to start discussion on trading. I feel my knowledge on specific players and their form is good but when to bring them in is always a point of conjecture for me.

We only get 2 trades per round and the aim is to get your team as you want it as early as possible. It's a game of brinkmanship because we still need to let our rookies increase in cash, which takes time.

If we take it that rookies top out at around round 8 at a minimum then I'm guessing some our trading heavily at around round 6. For this reason I am guessing it is better to wait for more value and let Adcock and Van Berlo (for this round) return back up the charts never to be seen again.

From this I also think it is ok to do sideways trades (if it is allowed in your trade budget) of rookies. Hartlett to Gamble or Cotchin to Palmer for example. These rookies can be used to fuel other trades in round 12 after you have used all your other rookies.

So from this, I am lead to believe you keep trades to a minimum from now to approximately round 6-7.

Unless you are in dire need of of some cash cows, then there is no need to do a sideways rookie trade. Ie if you have hill rioli and tippet, there is no need to trade tippet to gamble. If you have Bird Masten and Jack, there is no need to go Jack to Palmer.

But a sideways trade at a higher price can be more viable. Im looking at picking up Tuck for Houli. As I have seen no form coming out of Houli, I cant see him getting to 300k. But Tuck on recent form could average 80 for the season. What are your thoughts?

 

[Mordecai]

Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

Agree with your first sentiments. Tippett for Gamble is silly. If you picked up Hartlett or Myers for example though then I think the trade is justified. That's what I was trying to get at - misfiring rookies for rookies who are certain to play games is a good play as it will fuel trades in rnd 12 (the last trades you make to settle your team). If you already have playing rookies then forget it.

Tuck looked really appealing to me but being placed on the extended bench is not the greatest vote of confidence. I get the feeling the Hawks will rotate their youth through the squad to keep them happy. Houli to Tuck doesn't feel like you gain much - I'd be looking to trade down to Palmer who should play only slightly fewer games and average only slightly less. You'll gain 100k to use elsewhere. The only reason you would get Tuck is if you would keep him for a long, long time - basically the season. I don't think he presents as a season long player personally. I think you let him go.

If you have a look at all the midfielders still to play you can see that there will be so many opportunities in the future. For now address other areas. Coughlan, Dempsey, McNamara, Prismall, Myers etc etc are all yet to lay down their hands.

Tuck is a good gamble to make though - could be the "priddis" of last year. That term does annoy me because there may be no "priddis" this year.

They're my thoughts.

 

[banana_bus]

Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

Thats the problem, im not sure that Tuck will play 22. If he does he could be a keeper. Ive only used the one trade so far, and I already have Palmer. I also have Masten, Bird and Dyson, so as you can see my midfield is fairly weak.

Im really 50-50 at the moment with the trade.

 

[Mordecai]

Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

Thats the problem, im not sure that Tuck will play 22. If he does he could be a keeper. Ive only used the one trade so far, and I already have Palmer. I also have Masten, Bird and Dyson, so as you can see my midfield is fairly weak.

Im really 50-50 at the moment with the trade.

Same boat re: the weak midfield. I honestly thought it was going to work wonders at the start of the year. My forwards and rucks are done for the year. I have 3 to upgrade in the backs and 5 in the midfield.

Dyson you have to keep 1 more round. Houli you don't have to but if you want to move for Tuck you can't wait. There is no reason why Houli can't turn it on. He is being given games and could work his way into form. Tuck will have Crawford coming back, then Lewis. Thorp and Murphy could come back and displace on team balance in a round. A string of bad games, same with Ellis, and I think he will be in trouble. My gut says he could play a few more games but not perform the role to the nth degree you want him to - I'd be wondering over to the Hawks board.

 

[banana_bus]

Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

Yeah I dont think its worth the trade. Hopefully Houli can work his way into form and gain me some cash. And then Ill either upgrade him to a gun or downgrade him to Coughlan/Cotchin etc.

Another to watch in the next few week is Jesse Smith. We know he has potential but will he turn it on?

 

[theone5]

Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

I have been playing Dream Team since 1996 and i can say what i am about to say with a great deal of confidence.

I HAVE NEVER STRUGGLED MORE WITH MY BACKLINE THAN I HAVE THIS YEAR

Pre-Season
Do i start with B.Goddard or do i get him during the middle of the year?
Do i take a punt on D.Bradshaw?
Do i take L.Hansen, S.Thompson or both?
B.Waters, L.Gilbee or G.Birchall. Which one do i pick?

These are the kinds of questions i faced before the season started.

I finally selected my team and thought that the headaches were over.
How wrong i was.

Now i face many, many more problems.
I will show you my backs and i will let the jury have their say.
C.Cornes
H.Shaw
J.Bowden
G.Birchall
B.Symes
A.Carlile

A.Hartlett
S.Thompson
J.Anthony

What to do?

I have only made the 1 trade all year and that was:
OUT: M.Whelan (a loose cannon which his expected return unknown)
I took the risk on him and he let me down.
IN: A.Carlile (a guaranteed player who shows that he has the potential to score 60-80)
I picked him in order to get a player who i know will actually play.

 

[happy_eagle]

Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

Good work happy_eagle.

I have a question though:
Are you saying that NONE of those players you mentioned played the team they are playing this week more than once in the last three seasons?

Teams play 7 out of the 16 teams twice in a season and going by your stats, you only have one score from each season.
Do you know what i am saying?

yeh, that was my mistake

some teams played each other twice, some didnt

 

[54Dogs]

Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

I have been playing Dream Team since 1996 and i can say what i am about to say with a great deal of confidence.

I HAVE NEVER STRUGGLED MORE WITH MY BACKLINE THAN I HAVE THIS YEAR

Pre-Season
Do i start with B.Goddard or do i get him during the middle of the year?
Do i take a punt on D.Bradshaw?
Do i take L.Hansen, S.Thompson or both?
B.Waters, L.Gilbee or G.Birchall. Which one do i pick?

These are the kinds of questions i faced before the season started.

I finally selected my team and thought that the headaches were over.
How wrong i was.

Now i face many, many more problems.
I will show you my backs and i will let the jury have their say.
C.Cornes
H.Shaw
J.Bowden
G.Birchall
B.Symes
A.Carlile

A.Hartlett
S.Thompson
J.Anthony

What to do?

I have only made the 1 trade all year and that was:
OUT: M.Whelan (a loose cannon which his expected return unknown)
I took the risk on him and he let me down.
IN: A.Carlile (a guaranteed player who shows that he has the potential to score 60-80)
I picked him in order to get a player who i know will actually play.

Very good post one5 as a large number of posters on the main board have the same issue.

My solution to this has been to use 2 trades last week to dump my low end back, SDT for Newman, and bring in Hill for Cloke in the forwards. This leaves me running 2 rookies on the field in the forwards and none in the backs and the issue is gone. Hurn is my lowest performing back who will be traded in the next few weeks. The others are 5 keepers + Symes.

The key has been to try and structure the team to steer clear of the low end backs whilst using the obvious value in mids and forwards rookies. This opportunity still exists by downgrading a mid to palmer / masten and upgrading a backs rookie to a keeper.

 

[iamthestig]

Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

Very good post one5 as a large number of posters on the main board have the same issue, they simply have not articulated it as well as you have.

My solution to this has been to use 2 trades last week to dump my low end back, SDT for Newman, and bring in Hill for Cloke in the forwards. This leaves me running 2 rookies on the field in the forwards and none in the backs and the issue is gone. Hurn is my lowest performing back who will be traded in the next few weeks. The others are 5 keepers + Symes.

The key has been to try and structure the team to steer clear of the low end backs whilst using the obvious value in mids and forwards rookies. This opportunity still exists by downgrading a mid to palmer / masten and upgrading a backs rookie to a keeper.

Most people are pretty nervous about the backline, myself included. I'm hoping to ride it out but I can't help feeling I have made a mistake by picking SDT and another by leaving him there. I understand that sideways trades are generally a waste but as Harro said earlier there are exeptions to every rule. Sideways trades are less of a DT crime than leaving underperforming players in your team. This extends to blokes who can't get a game IMO. I have resisted the urge to trade so far but I can't see him getting a game ahead of Smith, Sinclair, McMahon and Lower. Urquhart had a good preseason by all reports, and if Riggio does what they say he can do he will be ahead too. FFS Hansen is probably ahead because they will want games into the future star, but admittedly he has to earn them. I think Harro is the only Roo so far so maybe he can correct anything I have wrong.

The moral of the story is that I think the competition for that last spot in the Roos side is very strong and there will come a time in the not too distant future when I have to fix the problem. Cash is king, and the ability to generate it is crucial.

 

[54Dogs]

Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

Most people are pretty nervous about the backline, myself included. I'm hoping to ride it out but I can't help feeling I have made a mistake by picking SDT and another by leaving him there. I understand that sideways trades are generally a waste but as Harro said earlier there are exeptions to every rule. Sideways trades are less of a DT crime than leaving underperforming players in your team. This extends to blokes who can't get a game IMO. I have resisted the urge to trade so far but I can't see him getting a game ahead of Smith, Sinclair, McMahon and Lower. Urquhart had a good preseason by all reports, and if Riggio does what they say he can do he will be ahead too. FFS Hansen is probably ahead because they will want games into the future star, but admittedly he has to earn them. I think Harro is the only Roo so far so maybe he can correct anything I have wrong.

The moral of the story is that I think the competition for that last spot in the Roos side is very strong and there will come a time in the not too distant future when I have to fix the problem. Cash is king, and the ability to generate it is crucial.

Agree 100% on SDT. With Smith returning this week and Sinclair in the near future all the players you mention, plus Harding, are competing for one spot at best. To keep SDT in that situation is not sustainable. It's either up to a guaranteed keeper or sideways to another rookie which only makes sense if you are running with a consistent 0 on the field each week. Even then my preference would be option 1 given NBrown is the only player at the low end certain of getting a game. No point in bringing in Pfieffer, Ibbo or A.W. if they don't play next week as you have used a trade and still have a zero on the park.

IMO there is just too much uncertainty at the bottom end in the backs. The only thing which would change my opinion is big games from Ibbo or A.W. followed by the coach talking them up.

 

[sante]

Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

I think Defence is the main concern for a lot of teams this year. Not much talent to choose from especially lower down. After Birchall/Waters and co. the talent pool was very shallow.

My defence looks like this;

C Cornes
H Shaw
J Bowden
B Waters
G Birchall
B Symes
H Taylor (Traded him in this week to cover Joel).

M Spangher (Will play because of Bowden missing).
S Thompson (Looks like I will be stuck with him all year like Riggio in 2007).

I went for an expensive defence and a cheap midfield set-up. Better chance of cheap midfielders scoring well-ish than a cheap defender, below Symes' starting price.

 

[Jolldo87]

Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

B. Johnson (averaging 79.25)
Round 4 Price: 376,500
Predicted Round 5 Price: 349,704
Predicted Round 6 Price: 339,492
Predicted Round 7 Price: 336,211
Predicted Round 8 Price: 333,780

J. Hill (averaging 83)
Round 4 Price: 217,400
Predicted Round 5 Price: 245,741
Predicted Round 6 Price: 261,027
Predicted Round 7 Price: 282,354
Predicted Round 8 Price: 298,157

So After round 8 it is possible that Hill to Johnson will only cost out 35,000. This is assuming Hill keeps up his average and Johnson doesn't get a big score.

 

[54Dogs]

Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

B. Johnson (averaging 79.25)
Round 4 Price: 376,500
Predicted Round 5 Price: 349,704
Predicted Round 6 Price: 339,492
Predicted Round 7 Price: 336,211
Predicted Round 8 Price: 333,780

J. Hill (averaging 83)
Round 4 Price: 217,400
Predicted Round 5 Price: 245,741
Predicted Round 6 Price: 261,027
Predicted Round 7 Price: 282,354
Predicted Round 8 Price: 298,157

So After round 8 it is possible that Hill to Johnson will only cost out 35,000. This is assuming Hill keeps up his average and Johnson doesn't get a big score.

Jolldo, looking forward into the crystal ball I would be looking to trade Hill after round 6 if there is a good switch on offer. I have him factored in at around 250K at this time but only see his maximum at about 260K so he would be almost there.

There are 2 main reasons for this. Firstly, the Dogs draw, we play Richmond and West Coast in the next 2 rounds then I would sell prior to Swans in Sydney. This game could hurt his average and price fluctuations for the following 3 weeks. Secondly, Hill will be the first rookie to reach his maximum price because of his flying start so this gives you the chance to upgrade 2-3 weeks earlier than other rookies.

 

[Kid A]

Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

As far as trades go, if I'm not completely sure, I ease off. Every week there will be an Adcock or Hill type player where if you don't jump on him this week, you'll be paying $20-40,000 more the next week. You can't capitalise on every one of these.

I have Coughlan in my reserves, because I had pinned him down as a cash cow to upgrade late season. The last two rounds I've been sorely tempted to get Tuck in, but I couldn't prior to round 3 (used a trade, Bradshaw to Hill, and wasn't keen on using another) and now they're essentially the same price. Since I'd be looking both to rise in value and trade midseason, I stuck with Coughlan. I'm not sure how many of you would have been more aggressive and taken Tuck prior to R3. (I had Palmer, Bird and Dyson in the eight midfielders as well, so having another 'non-guaranteed starter' seemed risky. Though those three seem to have shored up spots now.)

I was also tempted to trade Nicoski out this week, since his high score from round 1 will drop off the radar. But I couldn't find a compelling backman. So I let him stay there. You do want the best team asap, but each week you hold off gives you more information for trading.

I agree that sideways trades aren't always bad. Guns don't need to be traded sideways. Rookies are too inconsistent to use a trade on unless it's someone like Hill who screams for a trade.

 

[Beau_Waters for PM]

Re: The No Passengers Discussion Thread

B. Johnson (averaging 79.25)
Round 4 Price: 376,500
Predicted Round 5 Price: 349,704
Predicted Round 6 Price: 339,492
Predicted Round 7 Price: 336,211
Predicted Round 8 Price: 333,780

J. Hill (averaging 83)
Round 4 Price: 217,400
Predicted Round 5 Price: 245,741
Predicted Round 6 Price: 261,027
Predicted Round 7 Price: 282,354
Predicted Round 8 Price: 298,157

So After round 8 it is possible that Hill to Johnson will only cost out 35,000. This is assuming Hill keeps up his average and Johnson doesn't get a big score.

But you're assuming BJ won't improve on his current average of 79. I strongly believe he will. Good job with the numbers though.

 

[Kildonan]

Please feel welcome to add comments or criticisms about the discussion here.

The No Passengers group have started a feature: Critiques on individual players, these will be posted soon.
If you have a burning yearning for the inside goss on a particular player - then let us know - the panel will choose who gets done and when.

My advice to you - is dont make your Dream Team trades without checking out what the experts are doing ... and why !

Tomorrow - the first edition of No Passengers (Ironically entitled No Passengers Week 4)

 

[Hawks 08]

Great work guys. I'm sure that would help people out immensley.

 

[Dime]

Looks good guys

Some intellectual DT talk... i'm so jealous, it's been so long