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On Melbourne's Depth

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Initially I was going to post this on the main board, but decided you guys would appreciate it more.

Melbourne's depth is starting to become good. Balance and variety are all coming together. There are problems which I'll note though.

Defence
Defence is pretty well set. Frawley, Garland, Watts and Tom McDonald are first-choice; Sellar is first backup. Throw Gillies in here, plus Lynden Dunn. Troy Davis is developmental but may not make it.
On the smaller defender side, James Strauss, Dan Nicholson and Nev Jetta make up the brigade, and Dean Terlich now will be that rebounding type. Josh Tynan got a couple of games into him last year too, giving him a taste of what's needed.
Ultimately it's a good unit which is underrated due to the number of I50s they've copped. The big problem is next year. By me, assuming he doesn't sign this year, Frawley will be RFA in 2014. This is one time where we will have to pull out the big bucks, cos he will get offers, and unlike last year and Beamer, Frawley is well worth matching a multi-year large deal for.

Midfield
Inside mids have reloaded. On top of Nathan Jones, McKenzie, Couch and Magner, we've gotten Viney and Matt Jones. We have depth and different talents - a true constant handball type with McKenzie, a wrecking ball in Viney and a "close-inside" type in Nat Jones. (By close-inside, I mean those guys that can get to 2-3 paces outside the contest.

Those guys that can play both inside and out are critical. We already had Col Sylvia, Rohan Bail and Jack Trengove here, but now Jack Grimes slots in here as well as Jimmy Toumpas. Means we can finally thread some blokes through here rather than try to stopgap it with a Magner.

True outside types is probably our biggest 'concern'. Sam Blease is obviously critical here, but Michael Evans is good for this if he can get on the park. Dom Barry is here too, but won't play in 2013; kid is just too small yet.

The group is coming together. Now, Col Sylvia is UFA I believe, and I'll be pissed as anything if he finally has a massive year and then pisses off for cash. That said, it may not matter, as we could always reload through a draft pick if he did get big bucks - he'd be worth at least a 2nd rounder in my books. Apart from him though, the unit is going to stay together; the only other FA risk is Jones who is contracted to the end of 2015.

Forwards
Medium forwards have reduced dramatically compared to two or three years ago, but they're probably not a great role anymore unless you're amazing. Howe is the obvious one, but Dunn can slot down in here too. Tapscott plays best off here too. Really though, you only want one, maybe two mediums, rather than in previous years where we were playing all of Bate, Dunn, Miller and Robbo. Mediums on their own can't really give structure; you can't build a forward line around them as they either get beaten at ground level or beaten body-on-body.

The change is in talls. For the first time since at least Neitz and Miller, and in my eyes Schwartz and Neitz, Melbourne have multiple true tall forwards who are really ready to go. Mitch Clark is #1 of course, then Dawes is #2 and Pedersen #3. Jack Fitzpatrick is behind these guys as the #4 but could crack a big one this year. And then there's Hulk waiting for 2014. We will almost certainly play a three-tall forward line of Clark, Dawes and Pedo once Mitch is fit. This is going to stretch defences to breaking point - very few backlines can compete with 3 power forwards.

Smalls we finally have, too. Apart from Davey and Blease rotating through, we've now got Byrnes and Rodan. We almost definitely need one more, probably in the 2014 draft, as a 2-3 year development prospect, as 3 of those 4 probably won't be around in 4 years.

Rucks
The Big Rush. He's back. But there's improvement behind him too. I never wanted to see Spencer in a Melbourne jumper again at the start of 2012, but he shocked me with how much he's improved. Jamar all over again is a distinct possibility, and probably even better - Spencer's got better contest awareness than Jamar when the pill is in play. There's the rare Gawnius Maximus too...if he can ever get on the park, poor bastard. Add Mitch and Pedo rotating through here as backups - yes, Mitch will play in the ruck at times, but with a 3-tall forward line it doesn't matter as much - and you're extremely set.

Going forward
Now, obviously there's a problem with a lack of potential draft options. Right now though, in 3 years my ideal (hopefully flag-challenging) side would be:

B: Strauss/Garland Frawley Jetta
HB: Watts TMac Strauss/Terlich
C: Blease Viney Grimes
HF: Howe Dawes Barry
F: Clark Hogan (FP type)
Fol: Spencer/Gawn Jones Toumpas
Int: Evans Trengove Tapscott (Developing Player)

Obviously there's some flaws here - the need for a forward pocket is probably most critical here. The double-Strauss is because I'm not sure where he fits, and it depends on how Terlich adapts to AFL level. Spencer/Gawn could also possibly have Fitz added in there if he comes good - the best of those three will take over from Rush by then. A small defender may be in order depending on how NevJet goes down there.
 
Love your optimism Striker, and I agree that out depth is looking much better, but let's be honest... It's coming off a low base.

Tall forwards are obviously infinitely better than a year ago. Fitz is just potential, but if he gets a chance he could do a bit.

Tall backs, yeah sure. Could be in deep shit if Frawley leaves but until then we look good, and should look better with fewer I50s every week.

Mids... A midfield is never complete, and the main thing for us is more experience in there. It's coming together.

Not convinced about our small backs yet. I rate all of Strauss, Nicholson and Jetta to a degree, but if you asked a random punter he would have little idea who any of them were because none have really done anything. All are still getting games largely on potential. Terlich and Tynan even more so - nothing shown yet. Give them time, sure, but let's not sit back and consider that slot sorted.

Importantly for the small forward 'position' we now have a leader in Byrnes showing the way to the kids (and probably Davey for that matter).

Ruck should be ok for now, although I don't want to rely on Spencer for too long... Sure he's improved, but he's still worse than Jamar with ball in hand.
Speaking of, is Jamar really that good? Solid player, yeah, but he's had one amazing year followed by some injury-riddled 'meh' games. Almost 2013 or bust for him - if Gawn comes along to push Rush out of the team that's a bonus for us.
 

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Love you're optimism Striker, and I agree that out depth is looking much better, but let's be honest... It's coming off a low base.
Is true. Better than nothing.

Mids... A midfield is never complete, and the main thing for us is more experience in there. It's coming together.
I think you can come pretty close. I'd say a midfield of Swan-Pendlebury-Beams-Ball-Young-Sidebottom is pretty complete; now, obviously that's perfect, but you can generally get away with one 'lesser' player. Personally, I think Jordie McKenzie will be that 'lesser' - and he'll look a hell of a lot better with better players around him, because his work is heavily in-traffic and will benefit from people outside to feed to.

Not convinced about our small backs yet. I rate all of Strauss, Nicholson and Jetta to a degree, but if you asked a random punter he would have little idea who any of them were because none have really done anything. All are still getting games largely on potential. Terlich and Tynan even more so - nothing shown yet. Give them time, sure, but let's not sit back and consider that slot sorted.

I honestly think Strauss is the one. I don't get why he gets slagged so much on here - he'd cemented himself before he broke his leg, and he was back in and solid late last year despite the shitstorm all over the rest of the ground. It's still a wait-and-see to a point - he's not back to pre-break form yet, but he's getting close.

Importantly for the small forward 'position' we now have a leader in Byrnes showing the way to the kids (and probably Davey for that matter).
A leader, sure, but who's the prospect? This is where I'm shocked that we didn't spend one of the rookie spots.

Ruck should be ok for now, although I don't want to rely on Spencer for too long... Sure he's improved, but he's still worse than Jamar with ball in hand.
Speaking of, is Jamar really that good? Solid player, yeah, but he's had one amazing year followed by some injury-riddled 'meh' games. Almost 2013 or bust for him - if Gawn comes along to push Rush out of the team that's a bonus for us.

Gawnius Maximus is the dream, but 2 knee recos never ever bodes well for rucks. (Related - has he done both knees, or just one knee twice?) His hamstring problems aren't unusual with that sort of comeback either. My concern is we'll never see the best of him. Spencer has improved out of sight, and the guy is still only 23 - we've got a lot of guys who we're still talking about 'potential' who are that age or older.
Honestly, though? Come 2014 or 2015 it would not surprise me to see Clark slot back into the ruck because of Hulk. I'm going to wait to see Hogan's playstyle, but if he's plays the Neitz-esque lead-or-muscle marking style, I don't know that he and Clark can play in the same forward line. It probably wouldn't hurt our structure either - 4 tall forwards is too tall, but running Hogan-Dawes-Pedo with Clark rotating through would be dangerous as hell anyway.
 
I have no doubt our best and FIT 22 can compete with any other side ATM. With say a hand full of injuries we MIght struggle. That is why I am optimistic of this season because its our turn to have a bit of luck with injuries HENCE the reason I think we will win more games than others predict.
 
I agree with Captain Jack wrt our small defenders. None of them stand out as pure 1 on 1 match ups with the better smaller forwards of the comp. Not to say they won't improve with experience but for all of Macdonalds shortcomings, he's still on our list for a reason. We seem to have the defensive run but not the defensive stoppers in this demographic.

I'm not as worried about Jamar. If we can use him sparingly with Spencer (assuming Spencer improves) then hell go longer in the game. I agree that he is no longer the saviour we thought he was though. Having said that, I sense a mature age ruck acquisition next trade/FA period.

2 Questions:

1) What is Taggert's natural position?

2) Out of 10 what is Fitzpatrick's rucking ability?

Btw nice OP Striker475
 
1) What is Taggert's natural position.
To quote him, he models his game off Dustin Martin. So that predominantly outside but can damage inside type.

2) Out of 10 what is Fitzpatrick's rucking ability.

It's hard to know at AFL level because he simply hasn't rucked there, but at VFL level he's been pretty dominant from what I understand; I'm going to go with a 6 based on that.
 
Good thread :thumbsu:

Defence - All things considered our backs aren't in too bad shape. Agree on Frawley, clubs will come at him and we can't afford to lose a player of that quality. Losing Rivers will hurt, he was underrated by demon fans IMO. Tom McDonald looks like he's going to hold down CHB for a long time, what a bargain. I like Garland but he didn't have a great 2012 and is still prone to brain farts, needs to have a solid year to really establish himself going forward. Watts will play the QB role really well, his skills are superb but I'm not sure he can defend one and one. Agree with CJ about our small defenders, despite his pace Nicholson can't kick the ball. Apparently Strauss is a beautiful kick but when he plays I rarely notice he's out there. Jetta tackles well but outside of that I'm not sure what he does.


Mids - Our midfield has been awful, in rebuild mode. Jones has become a terrific player, Mckenzie tries his guts out, and his borderline illegal tagging jobs are brilliant. Add Grimes, Trenners, Viney and Toumpas and there's a future there but it's going to take a while.

Forwards - This time last year people were saying Clark would free up Jurrah and Watts in the forward line. A year is a long time I guess. As stated in OP we have fixed the medium forward problem with a sledge hammer. No more Bate or Petterd plus Dunn is now a defender as far as i know. Now we have Clark, Dawes, Pederson and maybe Firtzy as genuine targets in our forward 50, plus Howe jumping on their heads. Outside of Clark and Howe I'm not really convinced of the players in that group, but at worst they provide a much more structured attack. Small forward is a problem, I thought Byrnes was the man but others have said he's not going to play that role. Blease could do it but we want him tearing up and down the wings. Maybe Davey??? :eek:

Rucks - Jamar is getting older but is still good when fit. Spencer surprised me last year but I'm not holding my breath. Hopefully Gawn gets a chance to succeed, no more injuries. Losing Martin is no big deal IMO, insert Pederson.

Also wasn't sure where to put Tapscott in all of this, I see him as a high half forward but he needs to find his role in the side soon.
 
Nice OP, but I can't help but feel that I've heard it all before. Players like 'Nev Jetta' who we use as options down back are really nothing more than last years trash in a new wrapper. Once again, I'll believe this stuff when I see it.
 
Nice OP, but I can't help but feel that I've heard it all before. Players like 'Nev Jetta' who we use as options down back are really nothing more than last years trash in a new wrapper. Once again, I'll believe this stuff when I see it.
I'm willing to cut a guy some slack when he has a bad ankle break and doesn't train for 16 weeks or however long it was...
 
Regardless of being a Veteran and freeing up some cap space, Davey's salary has Chip's and Sylvia's names on it next year.

Only a stellar year will see him retained you'd think.
 
I'm willing to cut a guy some slack when he has a bad ankle break and doesn't train for 16 weeks or however long it was...
I remember his really courageous effort against St Kilda; because it was all he did in the month and a half worth of games that he played.

You can list all the names you want, improvement will only gone when they extract their fingers out of their arse like Adelaide last season.
 

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Regardless of being a Veteran and freeing up some cap space, Davey's salary has Chip's and Sylvia's names on it next year.

Only a stellar year will see him retained you'd think.
I think you're right tbh. Terribly sad too. He's looking at a pay cut or changing sides - if someone comes in with quality cash for him I can't see him staying.
 
Re: the small defenders. I'm a big fan of Strauss, and I think he's coming on nicely. But if he has cemented a spot with his form so far, that's a concern. Not saying he has been bad, because as I say I rate him and think he's on the up, but his defensive work leaves a bit to be desired, and his much-vaunted kicking hasn't been displayed too much either.

Obviously that's a lot to do with out midfield getting pantsed every week, but still... If he's holding down a BP spot on exposed form it's largely because of a lack of options at this stage.

Same goes for Jetta, who has shown a bit but not yet enough to be a certain starter.

So I guess my point is that it can't be called 'depth' if it's just a handful of blokes who have shown a bit and who may hold down a spot this year. Depth is our tall defenders, where some quality players are backed up by guys who could probably hold their own when needed - Sellar and Gillies to be precise, also Davis to an extent.
 
I remember his really courageous effort against St Kilda; because it was all he did in the month and a half worth of games that he played.

You can list all the names you want, improvement will only gone when they extract their fingers out of their arse like Adelaide last season.

Jetta's a footballer, more then I can say for Fitzy ;)
 
Jetta's a footballer, more then I can say for Fitzy ;)
If Jetta's a 'footballer' than I want my money back. I'd hate to think that he'd be happy with what he's accomplished at Melbourne thus far.
 
Regardless of being a Veteran and freeing up some cap space, Davey's salary has Chip's and Sylvia's names on it next year.

Only a stellar year will see him retained you'd think.
Sylvia? Also needs a stellar year if he wants to be retained IMO.
 
Players who've proven themselves to be in the side when fit:
Nathan Jones
James Frawley
Mitch Clark
Jack Grimes
Jeremy Howe
Mark Jamar

Players who should be in the best side when fit:
Jack Watts
Chris Dawes
Jack Trengove
Shannon Byrnes
Colin Sylvia
Jordie McKenzie
Sam Blease
Colin Garland
Tom McDonald

Players who are borderline best side:
Lynden Dunn
David Rodan
Cam Pedersen
James Magner
Dan Nicholson
Aaron Davey
Rohan Bail

Players with something to prove in 2013:
James Strauss
Tom Gillies
Joel MacDonald
James Sellar
Michael Evans
Luke Tapscott
Neville Jetta
Jake Spencer
Troy Davis
Matt Jones
Dean Terlich
Tom Couch
Jack Fitzpatrick

Youth in 2013:
Jimmy Toumpas
Jack Viney
Josh Tynan
Dom Barry
Dean Kent
Nathan Stark
Mitch Clisby


This is my break down of the side, and the best 22 I'd pick from that include: all of the first group, most of the second group, a few of the third group, two from the fifth group and a big question mark over the fourth.

Ideally, Group 1 sticks around. If we have an improved season, Group 2 will almost certainly stay here. Group Three represents good depth, but there are no guarantees there. Group 4, unless we have a world beating year, will lose anything from 30% to 70% of it's numbers. Group 5 is safe, aside from the two rookies.

There's my break down, and I've put plenty of effort into it. No trajectories, no bullshit - just where things stand.
 

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Sylvia? Also needs a stellar year if he wants to be retained IMO.
I understand your sentiment HFF, Col's output must increase and hopefully it will with more mid time but he is still an important player for us. He will be in demand. If Neeld wants to retain him (and I think it is more likely than not) then it might come at a slight premium if Col is a RFA.

Gone are the days of the club bending over though on player contracts. If Col pushes too hard I doubt Neeld will be that forthcoming.
 
I understand your sentiment HFF, Col's output must increase and hopefully it will with more mid time but he is still an important player for us. He will be in demand. If Neeld wants to retain him (and I think it is more likely than not) then it might come at a slight premium if Col is a RFA.

Gone are the days of the club bending over though on player contracts. If Col pushes too hard I doubt Neeld will be that forthcoming.
Agree with your sentiments in turn Rand, although perhaps without the wistful recollections of a yesterday that has yet to pass.
 
Good OP Striker. Excellent decision not to waste your time on the MB with this. You would get a few decent replies, but most would be filled with "Meltank" sort of rubbish. Not worth it.

While I think the list is the strongest it's been in a long time we still have many players who are a question mark, or guys who have shown they have the ability when fit, but they can't stay fit for long enough. Recruiting some experienced bodies has allowed a few of those guys to be pushed out of what would be our best 22. Some competition for places won't hurt our cause either.

Re: Jetta and Fitzy. Both are in the same boat, although I'd argue Jetta has shown more in his time in the side than Fitzy, although to be fair they play different roles. BOTH have had serious injuries and, from what we can gather, both are having their first full pre-season. We would all like them to make it but they have some serious points to prove.

Unless he falls off the face of the Earth or gets a big offer in free agency Sylvia will stay.
 
Agree with your sentiments in turn Rand, although perhaps without the wistful recollections of a yesterday that has yet to pass.
His good is pretty good though, you must admit. As always its about consistency. I doubt we'll ever see the perfect season from Sylvia but if he can punch out more better games then he's still above a lot of other players at this stage IMO.
 
If Jetta's a 'footballer' than I want my money back. I'd hate to think that he'd be happy with what he's accomplished at Melbourne thus far.

He goes hard, has good skill and has good athletic attributes; no doubt he's underperformed but there are reasons for that.

He wouldn't be the first 50+ draft pick to take time to adjust to AFL.
 
He goes hard, has good skill and has good athletic attributes; no doubt he's underperformed but there are reasons for that.

He wouldn't be the first 50+ draft pick to take time to adjust to AFL.
This is the problem that I fundamentally have with the OP (although I can see that there was plenty of effort put into it, so respect) and many of our supporters in general. Jetta does go hard, and he is relatively athletic - but I'd be stuffed if I had to provide some evidence of this 'good skill'. It's the same in Striker's post: Sandwiched between Frawley, McDonald and Garland, who are an impressive trip of KPDs, and the reloaded midfield is this paragraph:

On the smaller defender side, James Strauss, Dan Nicholson and Nev Jetta make up the brigade, and Dean Terlich now will be that rebounding type. Josh Tynan got a couple of games into him last year too, giving him a taste of what's needed.

So easy to get lost in the general fandom is the fact that none of these players is anywhere near the level of an exceptional or even very good small defender. Tynan, as the only lock down small on our list, has potential...but he remains 19 years old and the ONLY lockdown small on our list. Nicholson is a running half back whose shown enough to be considered; my thoughts on Jetta have been displayed above; Terlich hasn't even played a game yet and Strauss hasn't shown much either side of his injury to really tell us that he'll ever make the grade.

Maybe they'll be considered a decent small 'brigade' in 2015 but all I see right now is one underwhelming and injured rebounder whose boot is nowhere near as potent as we were warned it was, a 19 year old who has played two games, a state league footballer, a 40 game player wit injury issues whose never really done much and Nicho.

Competitive and potential are dirty words when spoken by Bailey, but they're flung around here with a fair bit of ease.
 

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