Operation 2017

[Defacto]

now that scott is openly admitting we are going through a complete rebuild i thought it would be interesting to see how our list is progressing to a serious tilt at the flag in 4 years time. i do not think we have the talent to push for a flag between now and then. there is going to be signification drop off when the likes of hayes, milne, reiwoldt, fisher, dal santo, montagna retire/age further.

so i started to lock players into positions for the 2017 side that have at least shown signification signs that they will be ready to play that position. the one rule i had was that no player can be older than 29 in 2017. heres side i could lock in:
B Geary (29) FB BP
HB Roberton (26) CHB HB
C Newnes (24) Armitage (29) Steven (27)
HF HF CHF Siposs (24)
F Saad (28) FF Stanley (26)
R McEvoy (28) RR ROV
I/C/SUB

we are seriously lacking some quality midfield talent coming through. i do not think we have any game winning mids that we can say right now have shown signs of becoming that player. its crucial that we start uncovering more A grade midfield talent.

likewise we have massive holes when it comes to FB/CHB. our best options are probably ferguson and lever. ferguson is probably more suited to a third tall or off HBF and who knows when it comes to lever. our best option is probably to recruit a CHB and FB who will be ready for 2017. nathan and or mitch brown would be a good get and would be 29 in 2017. but i think we still need to draft kids to potentially fill these gaps in 3-4 years time.

the other hole is CHF and FF. white and lee are our two available options now. lee is more of a HFF though than a CHF or FF. i can see us drafting another tall kid or two over the next two years to give us depth in this position. in the meantime i think beau will be used to cover the FF position.

i'd be very interested to hear from other supporters to see when they think we can challenge for a flag again and where they think the list will be at

 

[goodie23]

Wonder if Pelchen's done an analysis of the Saints like he did at Hawthorn when he arrived. Friday night was a reminder of the importance of kicking skills and grace under pressure.

 

[jakestar1]

I honestly think the 'rebuild' term is overused and means nothing. We just need to term up, play the ball simple, kick it long and things will happen.

 

[saintsrfreak]

I honestly think the 'rebuild' term is overused and means nothing. We just need to term up, play the ball simple, kick it long and things will happen.

Tell that to Melbourne

 

[Radius]

Well we know we're rebuilding. The difference between what we're doing and a 'complete rebuild' is that we picked up more mature guys like Lee, Saad, Milera, fought hard to secure Brown ASAP etc. and don't plan on dropping right to the bottom.

To be honest I'm pretty confident we can fill those holes by 2017...though it's going to be weird having a new core group of star players.

 

[Kildonan]

The OP has misinterpreted Scott Watters, I believe.

We are rebuilding - that can't be denied - we've turned over 23 players in the last 2 years, but Watters wasn't resigning himself to a season of mediocrity while the Saints rebuild...

Watters said his team lacked polish and indicated he would look to blood new players who could improve the Saints' skill level.

"I think we've got to rejuvenate certain areas of our side," Watters said.
"We can't accept the same mistakes whether they be skill errors or efficiency.
"So ultimately every player needs to be held accountable for your performance.
"And if you fail to deliver – and it's not a threat, it's just selection – someone will get an opportunity and they'll get a chance to actually come in and fulfill the role."

To me it sounds like he was talking about improving the team by replacing a player who is not performing adequately by someone who can.
That may require some experimentation and maybe some concomitant performance degradation but he has not given up playing finals football this year.
Nor have I.

 

[Ants]

now that scott is openly admitting we are going through a complete rebuild i thought it would be interesting to see how our list is progressing to a serious tilt at the flag in 4 years time. i do not think we have the talent to push for a flag between now and then. there is going to be signification drop off when the likes of hayes, milne, reiwoldt, fisher, dal santo, montagna retire/age further.

so i started to lock players into positions for the 2017 side that have at least shown signification signs that they will be ready to play that position. the one rule i had was that no player can be older than 29 in 2017. heres side i could lock in:
B Geary (29) FB BP
HB Roberton (26) CHB HB
C Newnes (24) Armitage (29) Steven (27)
HF HF CHF Siposs (24)
F Saad (28) FF Stanley (26)
R McEvoy (28) RR ROV
I/C/SUB

we are seriously lacking some quality midfield talent coming through. i do not think we have any game winning mids that we can say right now have shown signs of becoming that player. its crucial that we start uncovering more A grade midfield talent.

likewise we have massive holes when it comes to FB/CHB. our best options are probably ferguson and lever. ferguson is probably more suited to a third tall or off HBF and who knows when it comes to lever. our best option is probably to recruit a CHB and FB who will be ready for 2017. nathan and or mitch brown would be a good get and would be 29 in 2017. but i think we still need to draft kids to potentially fill these gaps in 3-4 years time.

the other hole is CHF and FF. white and lee are our two available options now. lee is more of a HFF though than a CHF or FF. i can see us drafting another tall kid or two over the next two years to give us depth in this position. in the meantime i think beau will be used to cover the FF position.

i'd be very interested to hear from other supporters to see when they think we can challenge for a flag again and where they think the list will be at

Hope I'm not intruding, but find the rebuilding discussions fascinating. There are a number of similarities to Ess circa 2005 => 2007, where we had the ageing Lloyd, Lucas, Hird, J. Johnson, some good young guys and a lot of "what if". And frankly, if you think you can turn it around in four years I think you're dreaming.

Just looking at your spine - your missing your next FB, CHB, CHF and FF. Even if you drafted brilliantly next year, those guys take a while to mature. Hurley, Hooker are just hitting their straps and they were drafted back in 2007 and 2008. But to get the guys we currently have, we drafted/traded (from 2004) Lee, Neagle, Lucy, Gumby, Pears, D. Daniher, Hooker, Hurley, Still, Carlisle and Williams. That is a lot of picks, and although it can be argued we were a touch unlucky with injuries on Gumby, I think thats partially the hit and miss nature of the draft. So Hawthorn all for getting Roughy & Franklin, also missed with Dowler & Thorp.

I'm just using this as an example, but the odds are its going to take you at least 3-4 drafts even if you're drafting well, and then 2-3 years beyond that to get them all sufficiently matured. From Essendon slipping out of finals in 2005 we haven't really made it back in a way that speaks to getting premierships (well, I'm hopeful this is the year we're back as a force ). So it will have been at least 8 years. Can you do it faster? Sure. But I wouldn't be hanging out hoping to do it in four. The ones who do that (Sydney, Collingwood) have been brilliant in either trading/drafting or both, and probably never had the holes you have in your team above to fill. Also, crucially, they never slipped out of the eight for long.

 

[Squizz]

If we're dreaming, you're just blind.

Haven't you noticed that we've targeted more mature players in recent times?

Wilkes, Saad, Milera, Hickey, Lee, Dunell (a player the bummers were keen on), Roberton.

Whilst we are paying a price for the 2008-10 drafts, we've taken big strides in the last two years (which will take less time to bed down).

Make sure you aren't getting a bit dizzy on your high horse.

 

[sammm]

The OP has misinterpreted Scott Watters, I believe.

We are rebuilding - that can't be denied - we've turned over 23 players in the last 2 years, but Watters wasn't resigning himself to a season of mediocrity while the Saints rebuild...

Watters said his team lacked polish and indicated he would look to blood new players who could improve the Saints' skill level.

"I think we've got to rejuvenate certain areas of our side," Watters said.
"We can't accept the same mistakes whether they be skill errors or efficiency.
"So ultimately every player needs to be held accountable for your performance.
"And if you fail to deliver – and it's not a threat, it's just selection – someone will get an opportunity and they'll get a chance to actually come in and fulfill the role."

To me it sounds like he was talking about improving the team by replacing a player who is not performing adequately by someone who can.
That may require some experimentation and maybe some concomitant performance degradation but he has not given up playing finals football this year.
Nor have I.

If he means what he said, then sooner rather then later Blake will be out of the sie (unfortunately for him) maybe when dempster and wilt gets back. i am sure Blake was only a stop gap measure this year, in case somethng happens, (like it did)

 

[SaintsSeptember]

When Lyon came to StKilda:
Gehrig and Hamil were finished. The only forwards were Riewoldt /Kosi with Allen a potential. The closest Lyon came to replacing them were Stanley and Gamble. Watters/Pelchan choices of Lee and Wilkes seems better on the surface.

Ackland left. We only had injured Gardiner. While he sucessfuly recruited McEvoy, there was no backup after the aging Gardiner and King left. Pattison was never going to cut it.
Watters/Pelchen have recruited a long term backup/replacement and a development ruckman.

Penny was gone, and Max was unreliable. Lyon sucessfully recruited Dawson. At his age he can be compared with the trades for Milera, Saad etc , a pity he left really. Fergason/Simpkin probably reasonable backup if we still had Dawson.

Schnieder / Dempster was an inspired trade. Ray was OK.

So what is the difference now?

Watters/Pelchen are not recruiting ANY older players ( Matthew Clarke /King/ Peake ) that will make the cliff higher.
Recruited mature players are now mostly still "uknowns" who may have big upsides. As opposed to Ray/Polo/C Gardiner/Pattison/Peake/Gamble who were exactly what they seemed to be. ( Trent Dennis Lane is probably as close to this category as Pelchen/Watters have gone for ).
Watters/Pelchen are not using the rookie list to shuffle ordinary players onto when they arent up to standard.

 

[Ian Dunross]

2017:
Geary FB Webster
Murdoch Stanley Wright
Siposs Armo Newnes
Saad Spencer Milera
Hickey Lee Curren

McEvoy Steven Ross

Saunders, TDL, Minchington + draft picks from 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016.

Some definite quality there. A pretty good spine potentially. Stanley and Armo certainly look the part. And quality pace in Steven, Wright, Murdoch, Milera and Saad and good disposal in Webster, Murdoch, Siposs, Lee, Saad, Ross and Stanley.

 

[Squizz]

Plus Dunell (elevated to the senior list and a nice kick of the ball), Roberton (mobile 194cm defender), White (definite potential), Ledger (would probably have got AFL games elsewhere) and Simpkin.

 

[Ian Dunross]

Forgot about Roberten - he looks genuine quality at HB. Composed, good disposal, good intercept mark. Spencer White is perhaps the biggest factor in the Saints rebuild. Can he be even as half as good as the potential suggests? If so, it would go a long way to helping a premiership push. Simpkin, Ledger good squad players at the least and possibly more.

 

[Ian Dunross]

Adelaide and Sydney are possible comparisons to the Saints. Had premiership tilts in 05/06. Then lost some stars to retirement. Didn't have any top 5 draft picks, just recruited well, see Phil Davis, Tippet, Walker, Talia, Dangerfield and Sloane for Crows and Reid, Parker, Hannerbury, Jetta, Smith and Mumford for Swans and had a strong culture for the youngsters to develop in. The same could be said of the Saints so far, 11 and 12 drafts look like good efforts. The strong culture is there. On the way to following the Crows/Swans path.

 

[Squizz]

Adelaide and Sydney are possible comparisons to the Saints. Had premiership tilts in 05/06. Then lost some stars to retirement. Didn't have any top 5 draft picks, just recruited well, see Phil Davis, Tippet, Walker, Talia, Dangerfield and Sloane for Crows and Reid, Parker, Hannerbury, Jetta, Smith and Mumford for Swans and had a strong culture for the youngsters to develop in. The same could be said of the Saints so far, 11 and 12 drafts look like good efforts. The strong culture is there. On the way to following the Crows/Swans path.

Some of the trading by the Swans was crazy good too.

Mummy was a steal (pick 28).

Kennedy even more so (no pick under 39 involved).

Rhyce Shaw (I didn't think much of him at the time but he's blossomed up there) for a swap of lateish picks.

Mattner (pick 28).

Ted Richards required a bit more (pick 19 and a late one) but has played 150 games for them.

And there was a fair bit of controversy on the rookie selection of Jack, who is one of their better players.

And then they didn't give up anything for Tippett!!!

 

[hayes]

Future 22's are always fun so here's mine. Potential 2017 starting 22:

B: Gwilt FB Geary
HB: Dunell Stanley Webster
C: Newnes Wright Murdoch
HF: Siposs Lee Markworth
FF: Saad White Milera

R: Macca Steven Armo

Int: Hickey Gilbert Ross Saunders

Others in the mix:

Robertson
Simpkin
Maister
Minchington
Ferguson
Lever
Ray
Ledger
TDL

Plus potentially 16 draft picks from now til the start of 2017. Who knows what we'll get with them.

As I've said before I think Wright will be a midfielder eventually. Murdoch a HF/winger in the Isaac Smith mould. Tall-ish forward line with two mediums but with the pace of Markworth that shouldn't matter.

The worry is FB. Fingers crossed for Lever and Ferguson, or god forbid both. Not many locks yet but I don't mind the look of that team in all honesty.

I still think we should follow the Geelong mode of nobody getting over 600k. If a young player is coming out of contract and we're pretty confident in them lock them up nice and early and for even 4 years if possible. Sign them up as cheap as possible for as long as possible.

 

[Sainttony]

2017:
Geary FB Webster
Murdoch Stanley Wright
Siposs Armo Newnes
Saad Spencer Milera
Hickey Lee Curren

McEvoy Steven Ross


Saunders, TDL, Minchington + draft picks from 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016.


Some definite quality there. A pretty good spine potentially. Stanley and Armo certainly look the part. And quality pace in Steven, Wright, Murdoch, Milera and Saad and good disposal in Webster, Murdoch, Siposs, Lee, Saad, Ross and Stanley.

This side looks good on paper but you never know how some of these young guys will develop.

 

[Tongue In Cheek]

You guys are all forgetting one thing. We are now in the age of free agency.

In the space of two years we have not only turned over 20-odd players; we have gone from a salary cap position that was so tight we had to shuffle Jason Blake off the veteran list via the draft, to one where we are one of the most aggressively placed teams in the competition. So what are they going to do with all that salary cap space? Hmm?

Essendon aren't the only team that can "poach" a star. Look out.

 

[Tombowler]

You guys are all forgetting one thing. We are now in the age of free agency.

In the space of two years we have not only turned over 20-odd players; we have gone from a salary cap position that was so tight we had to shuffle Jason Blake off the veteran list via the draft, to one where we are one of the most aggressively placed teams in the competition. So what are they going to do with all that salary cap space? Hmm?

Essendon aren't the only team that can "poach" a star. Look out.

I reckon we should go hard for Dale Thomas, reckon he's the right age and right player for us for the next 3 or so years...

 

[aussierulesrules]

You guys are all forgetting one thing. We are now in the age of free agency.

In the space of two years we have not only turned over 20-odd players; we have gone from a salary cap position that was so tight we had to shuffle Jason Blake off the veteran list via the draft, to one where we are one of the most aggressively placed teams in the competition. So what are they going to do with all that salary cap space? Hmm?

Essendon aren't the only team that can "poach" a star. Look out.

Exactly. That is the big wildcard that makes it incredibly difficult to predict what will happen over the course of a few years for any club.

We didn't even get them through free agency, but look at what a difference getting Gehrig, Hamill and Lawrence in one trade week made to us about a decade ago.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Future 22's are always fun so here's mine. Potential 2017 starting 22:

B: Gwilt FB Geary
HB: Dunell Stanley Webster
C: Newnes Wright Murdoch
HF: Siposs Lee Markworth
FF: Saad White Milera

R: Macca Steven Armo

Int: Hickey Gilbert Ross Saunders

Others in the mix:

Robertson
Simpkin
Maister
Minchington
Ferguson
Lever
Ray
Ledger
TDL

Yep, plenty to like about that team, IMO. Even if we just had that team, with no additions in the next 4 years, I reckon it has the potential to be very, very good. It's exciting to think that we could have all of them, plus all those we get in the meantime through FA, trades and the many drafts.

I reckon I'd swap Murdoch and Webster though, as Jimmy ought to be ideally suited to the wing, with his skinnier frame, great endurance, good speed and great kicking, whereas with his bigger body and extremely strong overhead marking I reckon Murdoch would be better suited to the HBF, where he could be like a marking and rebounding wall back there, like a Dempster and has a similarly terrific long left foot to Webster.

I also think on what we've seen so far that Roberton has to get the HBF ahead of Dunell, even though I also like Sam a lot. I'm also still reasonably confident that Fergo will make it and it's probably a good sign that we haven't upgraded anyone from the rookie list so far this year, which may indicate that we are waiting for him to be available, so that we can then upgrade him. If not at FB I have a good feeling that he could be good at CHB. Hopefully we'll have someone else good for FB by then, which will allow us to play Rhys in the Dustin Fletcher role in a pocket, or to move him back up forward.

B: Gwilt Ferguson Geary
HB: Roberton Stanley Murdoch
C: Newnes Wright Webster
HF: Siposs Lee Markworth
FF: Saad White Milera

R: Macca Steven Armo

Int: Hickey Gilbert Ross Saunders

 

[hayes]

Yep, plenty to like about that team, IMO. Even if we just had that team, with no additions in the next 4 years, I reckon it has the potential to be very, very good. It's exciting to think that we could have all of them, plus all those we get in the meantime through FA, trades and the many drafts.

I reckon I'd swap Murdoch and Webster though, as Jimmy ought to be ideally suited to the wing, with his skinnier frame, great endurance, good speed and great kicking, whereas with his bigger body and extremely strong overhead marking I reckon Murdoch would be better suited to the HBF, where he could be like a marking and rebounding wall back there, like a Dempster and has a similarly terrific long left foot to Webster.

I also think on what we've seen so far that Roberton has to get the HBF ahead of Dunell, even though I also like Sam a lot. I'm also still reasonably confident that Fergo will make it and it's probably a good sign that we haven't upgraded anyone from the rookie list so far this year, which may indicate that we are waiting for him to be available, so that we can then upgrade him. If not at FB I have a good feeling that he could be good at CHB. Hopefully we'll have someone else good for FB by then, which will allow us to play Rhys in the Dustin Fletcher role in a pocket, or to move him back up forward.

B: Gwilt Ferguson Geary
HB: Roberton Stanley Murdoch
C: Newnes Wright Webster
HF: Siposs Lee Markworth
FF: Saad White Milera

R: Macca Steven Armo

Int: Hickey Gilbert Ross Saunders

I just think it makes the backline too tall if you swap them. If we get another FB and Stanley plays on the third tall that just makes it even taller. I think Gwilt, Roberton, Stanley and maybe Ferguson can all do what you said Murdoch would be capable of back there, whereas Webster with his pace might be able to do a job on a small. Maybe he could be our Suckling/Clint Young type back there?

I agree that we're waiting for Fergo to be right before we upgrade a rookie to give him some experience at key position and see how he goes. If I were him I'd be putting my hand up for that every day of the week given he's a rookie in his last year. It will be ugly at the start, but could really pay off down the line if we stick with it.

 

[sammm]

i posted this link in another thread, but i think it deserves to also be here especially as Pelchin talks about our multiple draft picks

http://www.news.com.au/sport/afl/saints-this-is-the-future/story-fndv8ufg-1226623717340

 

[McCrann]

Tell that to Melbourne

Tell that to Sydney. Good rebuild between 2005/06 and 2011/12 wouldn't you say?

 

[Richter]

In 2017, both Dal and Joey will be 33 - same age as Lenny is now. Neither have been injured much during their careers. So I reckon they'd be a chance of still being playing then. Ditto Sam Fisher, who was a late starter and will be 34 in 2017.