Our future has never looked brighter

[Pure_Ownage]

If we use 2007 as an example

Milburn 30
Harley 29
Scarlett Mooney Ottens 27
Corey Chapman Enright Ling Hunt Wojcinski 26
SJ Ablett Bartel Kelly 24
Mackie 23
Selwood 19

The mainstay of our A grade midfield was made up of Ottens Ablett Bartel Corey Ling
this suggests that players enter there prime at around 24 when players enter there twilight is another matter. By 2014 a lot of the youngster playing today will be 22-23 and about to enter there prime while support from players of the calaber of Bartel SJ Kelly who will be the same age as Chapman,Corey and Enright are now and thus can be expected to perform at there very least near there prime as our 29-30 years old are today.

But they'll be older. In 2007 we had no one over 30 (and only one player aged 30). In 2015 (let's assume we're playing in finals that year for the sake of this discussion) Bartel and Kelly will be 31 and SJ 32. Now don't get me wrong, they are fantastic players and will still play at a high level, but if we're planning our next flag tilt dependent on a very significant contribution from them in 2015 then that's unlikely, even the best older players decline over time.

You do correctly point out that we had a number of very critical players in the side under the prime age group (the 24 year olds the obvious ones) but this was counterbalanced by the fact that they had 9 players in that prime age group (most of whom were very critical to the side). Fast forward to 2015 and the group of excellent 22-24 year olds is only going to have 4 guys in that age group to support them, with 2 or 3 stars in their twilight years. Some of the stars may enter their prime early as you rightly point out, after all Selwood is pretty much in his prime now (what a rare freak he is) but the truth remains they won't have the same depth of players around that 26ish age to form the core/guts of the side, as the 07 side was blessed to have. Now we might win a flag with a group that is therefore significantly younger in 2015, all I'm saying is I think it's more likely than less likely unless either some of the other names I mentioned in my first list above significantly develop, or we carefully target some quality players in that age group from elsewhere. That's nothing against our youth by the way, which is absolutely fantastic, and Wells drafting which I think is worthy of many many medals, it's just part of what I think we need to do to complete the picture for our future crack at another flag.

 

[witsend]

We'd better hope that C Scott turns out to be an unbelievable coach, because this group we are seeing is once in a number of lifetimes!
The odds on that re-occurring any time soon seem insurmountable to me. We need to jag one more from this group, and then hope we can manufacture a flag with a very high quality side.

When we reminisce about this group we will be staggered at the depth of talent.

Ablett/Bartel/Selwood/Scarlett/Enright/Milburn/Ottens/Harley/Ling/Corey....ridiculous!!

 

[bulletproof]

We'd better hope that C Scott turns out to be an unbelievable coach, because this group we are seeing is once in a number of lifetimes!
The odds on that re-occurring any time soon seem insurmountable to me. We need to jag one more from this group, and then hope we can manufacture a flag with a very high quality side.

When we reminisce about this group we will be staggered at the depth of talent.

Ablett/Bartel/Selwood/Scarlett/Enright/Milburn/Ottens/Harley/Ling/Corey....ridiculous!!

Totally agree with this.

Our young players are nice types but they have to replace Geelong legends.

This year is our best chance.

 

[you pick one]

We'd better hope that C Scott turns out to be an unbelievable coach, because this group we are seeing is once in a number of lifetimes!
The odds on that re-occurring any time soon seem insurmountable to me. We need to jag one more from this group, and then hope we can manufacture a flag with a very high quality side.

When we reminisce about this group we will be staggered at the depth of talent.

Ablett/Bartel/Selwood/Scarlett/Enright/Milburn/Ottens/Harley/Ling/Corey....ridiculous!!

I'm not in the lawn section of any cemetery yet.


As those of us who are old enough to remember did about our great back to back side of 51/52.

But you are right chances of seeing another group like this in the blue and white hoops short to medium term at least are very slim, given the expanded competition , AFL draft and the change to the father/son rule.

 

[Lana]

But they'll be older. In 2007 we had no one over 30 (and only one player aged 30). In 2015 (let's assume we're playing in finals that year for the sake of this discussion) Bartel and Kelly will be 31 and SJ 32. Now don't get me wrong, they are fantastic players and will still play at a high level, but if we're planning our next flag tilt dependent on a very significant contribution from them in 2015 then that's unlikely, even the best older players decline over time.

You do correctly point out that we had a number of very critical players in the side under the prime age group (the 24 year olds the obvious ones) but this was counterbalanced by the fact that they had 9 players in that prime age group (most of whom were very critical to the side). Fast forward to 2015 and the group of excellent 22-24 year olds is only going to have 4 guys in that age group to support them, with 2 or 3 stars in their twilight years. Some of the stars may enter their prime early as you rightly point out, after all Selwood is pretty much in his prime now (what a rare freak he is) but the truth remains they won't have the same depth of players around that 26ish age to form the core/guts of the side, as the 07 side was blessed to have. Now we might win a flag with a group that is therefore significantly younger in 2015, all I'm saying is I think it's more likely than less likely unless either some of the other names I mentioned in my first list above significantly develop, or we carefully target some quality players in that age group from elsewhere. That's nothing against our youth by the way, which is absolutely fantastic, and Wells drafting which I think is worthy of many many medals, it's just part of what I think we need to do to complete the picture for our future crack at another flag.

Its had to predict AFL tends in a year let alone 3 but there are paterns to be found in premiership teams. They all had a decent group of 3-4 older experience players in there twilight a large core of players in the 'peak' 23-27 age range and some youth who bring enthusaism leg speed and tackling pressure.

While I don't think that we are going to win a premiership in the 2014-2015 years, they could be like our 2004-2005 years where we chalange deep into the finals. In the 6 next years we are going to have 2 waves of retirements, of the 11 players who are 29 this season and older by the end of the 2013 and the 7 players who are 27 and older by the end of the 2015 season. This second group will be like sanderson, kent kingsly and the peter ricardis for our next generation. If they are our core players until they retire we would have fallen into the same hole that all other teams do when they bottom out.

The reason I am optermistic is that the transition has already begun. We have a new young coach with the will and pataince to build his own list in time, we are blooding our young players while our stars are still in good form, giving them a standard to strive for. And most importantly he is backing young players like Duncan, Menzel and T.Hunt as best 22 as there form suggests they are.

Our future looks bright if our list managerment is well planned where we have incramental retirements giving our next generation oppertunities to develop without ruining its growth.

 

[RegHickeyStand]

I remember watching a game from 2004 early this year. We were playing a gun side (BL?), and we had an unexpected win. All the commentators could say in the second half was that this was a surprise and who would have predicted such nobodies such as Ling, Ablett, Bartel, Chapman, and a few others could play like this against such a champion team as Brisbane.

Yep, even back then we didn't get no respect. lol

I think the next lot will be harder to predict than we think. I can't remember any Cat's supporters at the time predicting this was going to be just about our best post WW2 team at that time.

 

[dharma bum]

. . . I watched sTkilda game on saturday they had a 1st year player Sipowitz or something 6 ft 3 moves well , good kick, looked a natural-got him with pick 79 . . .

 

[ATSAM]

Mmmm I don't think that I started to belive until the 24 min of the last 1/4 in 2007 GF either. Love to have it over again so that I could sit back and relax.
Our future started to look very bright in the 2002 (I think or was it 2003 when we won with T McGrath et el?)VFL Grand Final.

 

[vinum coupe]

ha ha. Well to be honest I was certain we'd win.
Loved the first quarter. And called it over half way through the second.

That 2nd half was the easiest 1/2 of footy I have ever watched.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I think he means Sipposs, pick 75.

Geez I miss the ol Dennis Franz on NYPD Blue, he was so good in that role.

 

[Scarlett Fever]

I think we have been in transition planning for a number of years and most of the senior players have mini-me's running around that are earmarked for their position. The start of this was 2007 when Taylor was recruited to replace Egan. Not all are perfect fits, some have evolved into different types of players and there are a few that don't look like making the grade. But overall our drafting the last few years has been uncanny in the characteristics between new and old.

Here is the list:
Mooney to be replaced by Hawkins
Ottens to be replaced by D.Simpson
Nathan Ablett to be replaced by Mitch Brown
Scarlett to be replaced by Gillies
Wojo to be replaced by T Hunt
Corey to be replaced by Duncan
Enright to be replaced by Menzel
Milburn to be replaced by Smedts
Ling to be replaced by Guthrie
Chapman/Rooke to be replaced by Schofield

As you can see the best laid plans don't always go perfect and things change.. I am more likely to get hit by an asteroid than Gillies is likely to be as good as Scarlett. But as someone said earlier it is a bit like the Australian cricket team - some guys just can't be replaced and Scarlett is one of them. We will probably still need to find another key defender if Gillies doesn't come up. I have a gut feel that Smedts maybe our next Scarlett like attacking defender but he is not a Gorilla keeper. Lonergan has slotted into this role nicely and along with Taylor we are now ok in that area.

As for the others - Menzel is developing into a different player than the defender he was drafted as. Guthrie may be better suited to J Hunt's role given what we have seen so far. However, everytime Ling is out Guthrie comes in. Simpson is no Otto but we have Vardy. Chappy is probably not replacable and hopefully Schofield can become the next tough defensive forward who can slot 6 pointers in a Rooke type mould. Come to think of it - how do you replace the great Maximus Rooke? Big shoes to fill indeed and in the end this will be the problem. You may be able to replace the old with similar type players but will they be of the same quality. Probably not, but if they are then we are a truly great club.

 

[Gladbaqs]

I think we have been in transition planning for a number of years and most of the senior players have mini-me's running around that are earmarked for their position. The start of this was 2007 when Taylor was recruited to replace Egan. Not all are perfect fits, some have evolved into different types of players and there are a few that don't look like making the grade. But overall our drafting the last few years has been uncanny in the characteristics between new and old.

Here is the list:
Mooney to be replaced by Hawkins
Ottens to be replaced by D.Simpson
Nathan Ablett to be replaced by Mitch Brown
Scarlett to be replaced by Gillies
Wojo to be replaced by T Hunt
Corey to be replaced by Duncan
Enright to be replaced by Menzel
Milburn to be replaced by Smedts
Ling to be replaced by Guthrie
Chapman/Rooke to be replaced by Schofield

As you can see the best laid plans don't always go perfect and things change.. I am more likely to get hit by an asteroid than Gillies is likely to be as good as Scarlett. But as someone said earlier it is a bit like the Australian cricket team - some guys just can't be replaced and Scarlett is one of them. We will probably still need to find another key defender if Gillies doesn't come up. I have a gut feel that Smedts maybe our next Scarlett like attacking defender but he is not a Gorilla keeper. Lonergan has slotted into this role nicely and along with Taylor we are now ok in that area.

As for the others - Menzel is developing into a different player than the defender he was drafted as. Guthrie may be better suited to J Hunt's role given what we have seen so far. However, everytime Ling is out Guthrie comes in. Simpson is no Otto but we have Vardy. Chappy is probably not replacable and hopefully Schofield can become the next tough defensive forward who can slot 6 pointers in a Rooke type mould. Come to think of it - how do you replace the great Maximus Rooke? Big shoes to fill indeed and in the end this will be the problem. You may be able to replace the old with similar type players but will they be of the same quality. Probably not, but if they are then we are a truly great club.

This is my favourite post for the year so far (apart from referring to Schroder as Schofield)