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G'day folks, I was just wondering through Porthos' draft web-site and found this profile on Paul Johnson. Don't know if this has been posted, or if anyone has read it, but it's quite interesting. There were no profiles for Brent Staker or Adam Selwood.
Paul Johnson (Vic)
26th June, 1984 - 197cm - 98kg
Paul Johnson - Dandenong Stingrays
Athletic ruckman/forward who is strong overhead and accurate kick at goal on his preferred left foot. Member AIS/AFL Academy in 2000-2001. Victoria Metro representative this year winning All Australian honours. From Frankston YCW. One big young man with his 197cm and 98kg frame matched by the biggest handspan (26.5cm) and longest arms (86.5cm) at the National AFL Draft camp.
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Paul Johnson - All-Australian
An extremely mobile ruckman/key position player, Johnson showed great agility and determination for a big man. Standing at 197cm, Johnson was a deadly accurate kick in front of goal and this was displayed when he booted four goals against Western Australia, while he also kicked truly under pressure against Vic Country in the final. A much improved player.
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Colin Wisbey's profile of Paul Johnson from the Extreme Black & White Bulletin Board
Paul Johnson (Dandenong Stingrays)
197/96 top-age left-footer (but dual-sided).
Lion-hearted hard-working hard-running large fwd/ruck with special small-man skills but NQR for an AFL tall.
(Forward) style like combination of Molloy (Bris) and Cummings.
(Ruck) style like Primus.
Has small-man skills which a big man has no right to have. Unfortunately, is NQR in some big-man skills which a big man is expected to have.
Will probably go first round but I have serious concerns about whether some attributes and techniques effective for him at U18 level will translating well to AFL level . I do not share the opinion of those who see his future as a versatile ruckman who can also play FF, CHF or CHB. I see any AFL future as primarily a FF (in a role similar to Molloy’s at Brisbane) who can handle forward line ruckwork and can pinch-hit as relief (but not man) ruckman. Against the weight of general opinion, I believe a 2nd round pick is fair and a first round pick is too high a price, given the concerns. Johnson is probably the player who has caused me the greatest grief in assessing AFL potential.
Arguably the standout big man in the U18 Champs series, and certainly in the TAC comp, as both ruck & FF but his competition was generally sub-standard, especially in ruck. At U18 level, Paul is both a delight to watch and an enigma. Has improved quite a lot since last year.
For his size, his straight-line agility is outstanding and his straight-line pace is usually quite good once he has built up momentum. He is exceptionally clean-handed and reliable below the knee even within a pack or through serious traffic. .He is incredibly adept at half-volley pickups at top pace - either takes off the ground or diving marks. He regularly sets up play by charging through traffic, taking the ball amazingly cleanly, then feeding off.
His work ethic is exceptional. He never gives up and he covers a lot of ground. He contests the ruck or marking contest then immediately pushes himself to remain an active participant until the ball is cleared. Even then, he will typically run on, with a sense of purpose, to the next play downfield. His 2nd and 3rd efforts terrific. He will regularly chase hard to try to pressure an opponent. He will regularly throw himself fiercely to smother an opponent’s kick or feed, including smothering the ball off the boot. Stats tell only part of his picture – one-percenters are a big feature. Although Paul is not quick as such, he pushes himself hard to get to, and actively participate in, any contests in which he can play a part. He will run flat out for 40mark just to block for a team-mate. His team ethic is so impressive. He is very unselfish. In particular, he will instinctively block for a team-mate after feeding the ball. He will clear a path & then follow up to present again “just in case”.
And he has terrific evasion skills for a big man.
And he thinks quickly when he has, or is going for, the ball.
And he has great awareness of where team-mates are around him.
…. BUT
… he rarely take contested overhead marks and his current rucking techniques, while regularly successful against most U18 rucks ( who are usually much shorter and/or skinnier) are likely to be exposed at AFL level. It’s not just a technique thing. Paul’s techniques can be worked on and improved to some extent, but the major part of the problem seems to relate to instinct and judgement and that’s why I am not confident he can adequately address my concerns.
And that’s the sticking point, together with the fact that his impressive agility in a straight-line or when he has the ball does not translate to lateral agility when the ball is loose or an opponent has it. In the latter circumstances, Paul has improved a lot since last year but is still cumbersome. It is easy to wrong-foot Paul and his recovery at such times is so slow that the opponent simply runs off him each time.
I see Johno’s best AFL prospect as a leading full-forward who, although not strong overhead, does lead hard and direct, has clean hands in front, and open the forward line up. Not just a Cummings (WCE) but, importantly, also a Molloy (Brisbane) in his ability to create opportunities and protection for other forwards. That, coupled with the ability to manufacture special goals from close in and the danger he presents with any kick for goal within 60mark, are where his real strength lies. That he can at least pinch-hit / relieve in ruck and take the ruckwork deep in the forward line is a plus.
To focus on a few aspects of where he is now:-
Marking:
Is excellent on the lead but rarely take contested overhead marks.
He is officially 197/96. Therefore, if he is playing key forward (typically FF), it might seem logical to man him up with your best big strongman. I believe, however, the best opponent is someone tallish (but not necessarily more than 6’2” even) and disciplined who has the pace, leap, mobility and concentration to wear him like a blanket on the lead, and to run off him at every opportunity.
Paul is a very strong, purposeful, steam-train lead. He hits the ball at top pace and has vice-grab hands if he can take the ball out if front. If you are even a metre behind him on the lead and the ball comes no higher than head height, he will mark it every time. And when he does he will hurt because he is such a reliable thumping kick, especially for goal.
If the ball presents a genuine overhead marking contest, Paul struggles big-time. He will always give you a big chance because he gives you unlimited access to the ball. He instinctively tends to run at the ball in such a way that he gets to a point underneath the ball and then jumps virtually straight up. He doesn’t have a feel for jumping up and INTO the ball. Nor does he steady at the last moment to shield the ball from the opponent’s reach. The bottom line is that Johnson is often not well-balanced at impact and, most importantly, the opponent doesn’t have to reach around Johnson’s body, let alone his arms, him for the ball. To compound things (or possibly connected) Paul often has hard hands overhead and struggles to even get hands to ball if he is coming from behind or mid-pack. Put simply, Paul‘s overhead marking usually consists of him running to the spot and jumping vertically straight up to catch. If he doesn’t have clear access to both those aspects, he is in trouble. Hence, he is usually in trouble overhead.
Ruckwork:
Is dual-handed and very clever with many of his ho's - can do monster punch hitouts to the front, or straight-arm jolt punches sideways, but he does try to direct hitouts & does have good awareness of where his "rover" options are. That’s the good news.
At ruck contests, tends to get to a position underneath where he expects the ball to drop. At ball-ups, as with his overhead marking, this typically means he finishes up having to jump straight up vertically instead of coming at an angle with a run up. This leaves him susceptible to a big-leaping ruckman jumping over the top of him and with greater purchase of the ball. Additionally, at throw-ins, he often tends to lean back excessively (a la J Madden). This allows him to out-body U18 rucks - he holds his arms out to the side to ward off opponent but in doing so he often leans way back leaving himself poorly-balanced to adjust if the throw-in is not tossed to the exact right spot.
At throw-ins, he will try to out-body his opponent almost every time.
He will bully any short ruckman who tries to out-body him. At U18 level they don't come much bigger & stronger than him. Most U18 rucks, including in the U18 Championships, are much shorter than Paul. Many are barely 6’3”. However, Johno is no Primus and nor is he exceptionally tall by AFL standards at barely 197cm and he is unlikely to get away with it at AFL level - opposition rucks will just jump over the top of him.
I believe the key to beating Johnson at ball-ups is oppose him with either a big leaper or someone of greater height and good leap, or similar or greater in both height and strength. At throw-ins, I would either let him do his wrasslin’ thing with the normal opponent but have a leaper (even fairly small) either come over the top late (a la J Cloke) or rush in front to intercept the ball. If you have an athletic huge-leaper, again not necessarily super tall but with a good sense of timing, who can come in late over the top of Johnson or early in front from the side, you don’t even need to have another person physically engaging him.
Agility:
There are two conflicting aspects to his agility. When he has the ball, his evasion skills are disarmingly outstanding – side-stepping or wrong-footing an opponent or selling the dummy. However, when the opponent has the ball or the ball takes a sideways bounce, Paul is easily wrong-footed and, when that happens, his slow reaction to recover, his poor turning circle and his lack of acceleration off the mark are such that he misses the train completely. His turning circle has improved since last year but is still a major weakness for the game he tries to play.
SUMMARY:
- Thumping reliable left foot kick but also get good depth and accuracy with his right. Consistent, even on the run. Excellent goal-sense.
- Always tries to play in front. Always.
- Has amazing clean ball-handling skills below the knee for his size – he is especially clean at picking up the half volley in front of him. (The trouble is, if it veers from his straight line path he is in trouble - even if he only has to veer off 45degrees).
- Very good with both hands (and arguably seems to use his right even more than his left) – both handball and hitouts, both depth and accuracy. Except for overhead marking, his hands are clean, quick and reliable. He is good at feeding the ball out, even under great pressure.
- Amazing on-field work ethic – running, presenting, competing, one-percenters, 2nd efforts, blocking, tackling, pressuring, etc
- Very intense at both man and ball. Fierce & desperate tackler.
- Great awareness of team-mates around him.
- Excellent decision-maker – any thinks quickly in doing so.
- Excellent evasion skills for his size
- Agility is a mixed bag – what he does well he does brilliantly, but his recovery when wrong-footed is poor.
- Pace and acceleration are somewhat of a mixed bag. Is not flash of the mark and can sometimes look lumbering but on other occasions, when he has some momentum up and/or is on his own terms, he can look very mobile for his size. - Never gives up.
- As a hard-leading forward he is terrific if the ball is out in front of him at head height or below - has vice-like grip running flat out taking the ball in front of him when he has even the slightest break on his opponent.
Query:
- Sub-standard contested overhead marking
- Ruck technique which may not succeed at AFL level
- If he is forced (i.e. not by his own choice) to change stride from his straight-line path he is in trouble and is way too slow to recover. It is very easy to wrong-foot him & run off him - either on the run or when he is standing the mark - & that's going to hurt him at AFL level, not just around the ground but even as a key forward they will run off him.
- Will he have weight problems which may impact his strengths (pardon the pun)? 96kg but has an Adonis build at 18yo. Officially added 6gk in the past year.
- stamina? (I don’t have any reason to believe he does or does not have stamina, so it is a query. He doesn’t tend to ruck long stints - his local team has two dedicated rucks + Johnson + R Brown, and Vic Metro had Cloke + part-timers Walsh & Brown. Certainly he runs hard and covers a lot of ground “non-stop”).
Some stats:
* In 2 full TAC seasons, has never got more than 20 possessions and only 3 times has taken more than 6 marks. Hasn't taken more than 5 marks in any game since April.
* TAC Avg disposals 15, up 25% on last year.
* Tac Avg marks 3.8
* 50% improvement in TAC avg handballs in 2nd half of his season
* 33% decrease in TAC avg marks in 2nd half of his season
* 35% decrease in TAC avg tackles in 2nd half of his season
* Has most average frees against in the TAC comp – has reduced from 2.6 mid-year to 2.2 though. (Was 4th last year)
* Morrish Medal votes in 5 games.
* Avg 12 disposals in U18 Championships – but a TOTAL of only 5 marks in 3 games.
Paul Johnson (Vic)
26th June, 1984 - 197cm - 98kg
Paul Johnson - Dandenong Stingrays
Athletic ruckman/forward who is strong overhead and accurate kick at goal on his preferred left foot. Member AIS/AFL Academy in 2000-2001. Victoria Metro representative this year winning All Australian honours. From Frankston YCW. One big young man with his 197cm and 98kg frame matched by the biggest handspan (26.5cm) and longest arms (86.5cm) at the National AFL Draft camp.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Paul Johnson - All-Australian
An extremely mobile ruckman/key position player, Johnson showed great agility and determination for a big man. Standing at 197cm, Johnson was a deadly accurate kick in front of goal and this was displayed when he booted four goals against Western Australia, while he also kicked truly under pressure against Vic Country in the final. A much improved player.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Colin Wisbey's profile of Paul Johnson from the Extreme Black & White Bulletin Board
Paul Johnson (Dandenong Stingrays)
197/96 top-age left-footer (but dual-sided).
Lion-hearted hard-working hard-running large fwd/ruck with special small-man skills but NQR for an AFL tall.
(Forward) style like combination of Molloy (Bris) and Cummings.
(Ruck) style like Primus.
Has small-man skills which a big man has no right to have. Unfortunately, is NQR in some big-man skills which a big man is expected to have.
Will probably go first round but I have serious concerns about whether some attributes and techniques effective for him at U18 level will translating well to AFL level . I do not share the opinion of those who see his future as a versatile ruckman who can also play FF, CHF or CHB. I see any AFL future as primarily a FF (in a role similar to Molloy’s at Brisbane) who can handle forward line ruckwork and can pinch-hit as relief (but not man) ruckman. Against the weight of general opinion, I believe a 2nd round pick is fair and a first round pick is too high a price, given the concerns. Johnson is probably the player who has caused me the greatest grief in assessing AFL potential.
Arguably the standout big man in the U18 Champs series, and certainly in the TAC comp, as both ruck & FF but his competition was generally sub-standard, especially in ruck. At U18 level, Paul is both a delight to watch and an enigma. Has improved quite a lot since last year.
For his size, his straight-line agility is outstanding and his straight-line pace is usually quite good once he has built up momentum. He is exceptionally clean-handed and reliable below the knee even within a pack or through serious traffic. .He is incredibly adept at half-volley pickups at top pace - either takes off the ground or diving marks. He regularly sets up play by charging through traffic, taking the ball amazingly cleanly, then feeding off.
His work ethic is exceptional. He never gives up and he covers a lot of ground. He contests the ruck or marking contest then immediately pushes himself to remain an active participant until the ball is cleared. Even then, he will typically run on, with a sense of purpose, to the next play downfield. His 2nd and 3rd efforts terrific. He will regularly chase hard to try to pressure an opponent. He will regularly throw himself fiercely to smother an opponent’s kick or feed, including smothering the ball off the boot. Stats tell only part of his picture – one-percenters are a big feature. Although Paul is not quick as such, he pushes himself hard to get to, and actively participate in, any contests in which he can play a part. He will run flat out for 40mark just to block for a team-mate. His team ethic is so impressive. He is very unselfish. In particular, he will instinctively block for a team-mate after feeding the ball. He will clear a path & then follow up to present again “just in case”.
And he has terrific evasion skills for a big man.
And he thinks quickly when he has, or is going for, the ball.
And he has great awareness of where team-mates are around him.
…. BUT
… he rarely take contested overhead marks and his current rucking techniques, while regularly successful against most U18 rucks ( who are usually much shorter and/or skinnier) are likely to be exposed at AFL level. It’s not just a technique thing. Paul’s techniques can be worked on and improved to some extent, but the major part of the problem seems to relate to instinct and judgement and that’s why I am not confident he can adequately address my concerns.
And that’s the sticking point, together with the fact that his impressive agility in a straight-line or when he has the ball does not translate to lateral agility when the ball is loose or an opponent has it. In the latter circumstances, Paul has improved a lot since last year but is still cumbersome. It is easy to wrong-foot Paul and his recovery at such times is so slow that the opponent simply runs off him each time.
I see Johno’s best AFL prospect as a leading full-forward who, although not strong overhead, does lead hard and direct, has clean hands in front, and open the forward line up. Not just a Cummings (WCE) but, importantly, also a Molloy (Brisbane) in his ability to create opportunities and protection for other forwards. That, coupled with the ability to manufacture special goals from close in and the danger he presents with any kick for goal within 60mark, are where his real strength lies. That he can at least pinch-hit / relieve in ruck and take the ruckwork deep in the forward line is a plus.
To focus on a few aspects of where he is now:-
Marking:
Is excellent on the lead but rarely take contested overhead marks.
He is officially 197/96. Therefore, if he is playing key forward (typically FF), it might seem logical to man him up with your best big strongman. I believe, however, the best opponent is someone tallish (but not necessarily more than 6’2” even) and disciplined who has the pace, leap, mobility and concentration to wear him like a blanket on the lead, and to run off him at every opportunity.
Paul is a very strong, purposeful, steam-train lead. He hits the ball at top pace and has vice-grab hands if he can take the ball out if front. If you are even a metre behind him on the lead and the ball comes no higher than head height, he will mark it every time. And when he does he will hurt because he is such a reliable thumping kick, especially for goal.
If the ball presents a genuine overhead marking contest, Paul struggles big-time. He will always give you a big chance because he gives you unlimited access to the ball. He instinctively tends to run at the ball in such a way that he gets to a point underneath the ball and then jumps virtually straight up. He doesn’t have a feel for jumping up and INTO the ball. Nor does he steady at the last moment to shield the ball from the opponent’s reach. The bottom line is that Johnson is often not well-balanced at impact and, most importantly, the opponent doesn’t have to reach around Johnson’s body, let alone his arms, him for the ball. To compound things (or possibly connected) Paul often has hard hands overhead and struggles to even get hands to ball if he is coming from behind or mid-pack. Put simply, Paul‘s overhead marking usually consists of him running to the spot and jumping vertically straight up to catch. If he doesn’t have clear access to both those aspects, he is in trouble. Hence, he is usually in trouble overhead.
Ruckwork:
Is dual-handed and very clever with many of his ho's - can do monster punch hitouts to the front, or straight-arm jolt punches sideways, but he does try to direct hitouts & does have good awareness of where his "rover" options are. That’s the good news.
At ruck contests, tends to get to a position underneath where he expects the ball to drop. At ball-ups, as with his overhead marking, this typically means he finishes up having to jump straight up vertically instead of coming at an angle with a run up. This leaves him susceptible to a big-leaping ruckman jumping over the top of him and with greater purchase of the ball. Additionally, at throw-ins, he often tends to lean back excessively (a la J Madden). This allows him to out-body U18 rucks - he holds his arms out to the side to ward off opponent but in doing so he often leans way back leaving himself poorly-balanced to adjust if the throw-in is not tossed to the exact right spot.
At throw-ins, he will try to out-body his opponent almost every time.
He will bully any short ruckman who tries to out-body him. At U18 level they don't come much bigger & stronger than him. Most U18 rucks, including in the U18 Championships, are much shorter than Paul. Many are barely 6’3”. However, Johno is no Primus and nor is he exceptionally tall by AFL standards at barely 197cm and he is unlikely to get away with it at AFL level - opposition rucks will just jump over the top of him.
I believe the key to beating Johnson at ball-ups is oppose him with either a big leaper or someone of greater height and good leap, or similar or greater in both height and strength. At throw-ins, I would either let him do his wrasslin’ thing with the normal opponent but have a leaper (even fairly small) either come over the top late (a la J Cloke) or rush in front to intercept the ball. If you have an athletic huge-leaper, again not necessarily super tall but with a good sense of timing, who can come in late over the top of Johnson or early in front from the side, you don’t even need to have another person physically engaging him.
Agility:
There are two conflicting aspects to his agility. When he has the ball, his evasion skills are disarmingly outstanding – side-stepping or wrong-footing an opponent or selling the dummy. However, when the opponent has the ball or the ball takes a sideways bounce, Paul is easily wrong-footed and, when that happens, his slow reaction to recover, his poor turning circle and his lack of acceleration off the mark are such that he misses the train completely. His turning circle has improved since last year but is still a major weakness for the game he tries to play.
SUMMARY:
- Thumping reliable left foot kick but also get good depth and accuracy with his right. Consistent, even on the run. Excellent goal-sense.
- Always tries to play in front. Always.
- Has amazing clean ball-handling skills below the knee for his size – he is especially clean at picking up the half volley in front of him. (The trouble is, if it veers from his straight line path he is in trouble - even if he only has to veer off 45degrees).
- Very good with both hands (and arguably seems to use his right even more than his left) – both handball and hitouts, both depth and accuracy. Except for overhead marking, his hands are clean, quick and reliable. He is good at feeding the ball out, even under great pressure.
- Amazing on-field work ethic – running, presenting, competing, one-percenters, 2nd efforts, blocking, tackling, pressuring, etc
- Very intense at both man and ball. Fierce & desperate tackler.
- Great awareness of team-mates around him.
- Excellent decision-maker – any thinks quickly in doing so.
- Excellent evasion skills for his size
- Agility is a mixed bag – what he does well he does brilliantly, but his recovery when wrong-footed is poor.
- Pace and acceleration are somewhat of a mixed bag. Is not flash of the mark and can sometimes look lumbering but on other occasions, when he has some momentum up and/or is on his own terms, he can look very mobile for his size. - Never gives up.
- As a hard-leading forward he is terrific if the ball is out in front of him at head height or below - has vice-like grip running flat out taking the ball in front of him when he has even the slightest break on his opponent.
Query:
- Sub-standard contested overhead marking
- Ruck technique which may not succeed at AFL level
- If he is forced (i.e. not by his own choice) to change stride from his straight-line path he is in trouble and is way too slow to recover. It is very easy to wrong-foot him & run off him - either on the run or when he is standing the mark - & that's going to hurt him at AFL level, not just around the ground but even as a key forward they will run off him.
- Will he have weight problems which may impact his strengths (pardon the pun)? 96kg but has an Adonis build at 18yo. Officially added 6gk in the past year.
- stamina? (I don’t have any reason to believe he does or does not have stamina, so it is a query. He doesn’t tend to ruck long stints - his local team has two dedicated rucks + Johnson + R Brown, and Vic Metro had Cloke + part-timers Walsh & Brown. Certainly he runs hard and covers a lot of ground “non-stop”).
Some stats:
* In 2 full TAC seasons, has never got more than 20 possessions and only 3 times has taken more than 6 marks. Hasn't taken more than 5 marks in any game since April.
* TAC Avg disposals 15, up 25% on last year.
* Tac Avg marks 3.8
* 50% improvement in TAC avg handballs in 2nd half of his season
* 33% decrease in TAC avg marks in 2nd half of his season
* 35% decrease in TAC avg tackles in 2nd half of his season
* Has most average frees against in the TAC comp – has reduced from 2.6 mid-year to 2.2 though. (Was 4th last year)
* Morrish Medal votes in 5 games.
* Avg 12 disposals in U18 Championships – but a TOTAL of only 5 marks in 3 games.
