Analysis Permutations

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samFFC

samFFC

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Veteran 10k Posts Chess Club Member NFL Prediction Comp Participant
Jul 1, 2013
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I am aware of "one week at a time".

But this got my mathsyness ticking.

With only three rounds left, the permutations and statistical analysis can be better predicted.

Take home messages:
80% chance to make the 4
<10% chance to make top 2

Mathematically, we can still leapfrog the three teams ahead of us; and there are 2 teams behind us (PA, NM) who can jump us. Adelaide/Ess/Coll/GC can be level on wins but will almost certainly not jump us on percentage.

So looking at those 6 teams:

Hawthorn 15-4 (142.6%) - Fremantle (A), Geelong (MCG), Collingwood (MCG)
Sydney 15-4 (139.1%) - St Kilda (H), WB (A), Richmond (H)
Geelong 15-4 (113.1%) - Carlton (Docklands), Hawthorn (MCG), Brisbane (Kardinia)
Fremantle 13-6 (129.4%) - Hawthorn (H), Brisbane (A), Port Adelaide (H)
Port Adelaide 12-7 (126.7%) - GC (A), Carlton (H), Fremantle (A)
North Melbourne 11-8 (114%) - WB (Docklands), Adelaide (Tasmania), Melbourne (Docklands)

I've been playing around on a Google spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nfGH8cIEQbiXPM5TpXFtZFFyOE9N1xpYqldPdRjbkSY/edit?usp=sharing
(I have multiple sheets for multiple people to have a go)

With the probabilities I have for the remaining games (R21 is based on the odds for this week, the rest are my estimates), our possibilities are:
13-9: 0.0175 (1.75%)
14-8: 0.2075
15-7: 0.4825
16-6: 0.2925

So at this stage, it is most likely we will win 2/3 of the remaining matches. Which would sit us 15-7 or 16-6.

TOP 4 PROBABILITY

Port has just a 0.1344 probability of ending at 15-7, and would need to jump our percentage as well. So Top 4 is looking very likely, from a mathematical perspective. What I've found:

Get to 16-6: 0.2925 probability; guaranteed top 4
Get to 15-7: 0.4825 probability; approx 0.87 top 4 chance (0.42)
Get to 14-8: 0.2075 probability; approx 0.45 top 4 chance (0.09)
Stay at 13-9: 0.0175 probability; approx 0.05 top 4 chance

So overall, top 4 is about 80% likelihood. Thus, missing it is a 20% probability.


TOP 2 PROBABILITY

To get to top 2, we need at least 15-7. There is a 0.225 probability of us finishing 13-9 or 14-8.

Finishing at 15-7 will unlikely to be useful, as we would need 2 or 3 of the top 3 to finish at 15-7 as well: the chances of this are practically 0 (well less than 1%).

Finishing at 16-6 is then our only chance. Firstly, this is only a 0.2925 probability of happening.

Freo 1st: almost impossible
Hawthorn 1st, Freo 2nd: <1%
Sydney 1st, Freo 2nd: 7% (assuming we can jump Hawks percentage); 1% (if we don't jump Hawks percentage)
Geelong 1st, Freo 2nd: <1%

So overall, top 2 is about an 8-9% likelihood.



Now I will go and watch more RTB press conferences and recite "one week at a time" and "anyone, anywhere, anytime"....
 

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se17enteen said:
I'm happy with finishing 4th and hoping Geelong finishes 1st.
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This would be a blockbuster and I would love to see the AFL try to move the game to Geelong. The interest in this game would be huge.

As a Freo supporter there is nothing that really worries me about playing Geelong. We have been in pretty poor form and still only went down by one point, and should have won it.
 
I think winning against Hawks this week would be a huge weight off our shoulders (and can prove we can beat a Top 2 side) - then if we beat Brisbane we can see where the chips fall against Port and pitch who we need to pitch.
 
Yep Sydney will finish top and we should finish 4th or 3rd depending on us and Geelong vs the Dawks. Fair chance that the Port game will be a dead rubber in which case we rest players knowing we have to travel week one of the finals. That would be the plan - try to win the next two and then rest Vs Port. AFL will whinge again no doubt!
 
Freo Dr said:
Yep Sydney will finish top and we should finish 4th or 3rd depending on us and Geelong vs the Dawks. Fair chance that the Port game will be a dead rubber in which case we rest players knowing we have to travel week one of the finals. That would be the plan - try to win the next two and then rest Vs Port. AFL will whinge again no doubt!
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Definitely hope we aren't playing for Top 4 spot against Port. I would back us to win but I imagine it would be a hard contest which would hurt us leading into the finals.

Lets beat the Hawks and Brissy then we can rest up against Port. Port would probably rest up players too if Top 4 was out of reach.
 
AChance.jpeg
 
It's all about beating Hawthorn on Sunday for Fremantle but still I'll feel better when Port drop a game. Gold Coast have a lot to play for and Carlton are finding form so with Port's recent form you'd think they will but they're also both winnable games and until they lose again round 23 will be for a place in the top 4 almost regardless of what we do (unless we win both and get a big % lead).
 

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I was just listening to Michael Thompson on 882. He thinks that the Eagles will win all 3 remaining games and finish 8th. He thinks Freo will finish fourth and that the Eagles will win their first finals game away and Freo will lose to Sydney week one.

That will mean we play the Eagles back here.

o_O
 
Harry Reems said:
I was just listening to Michael Thompson on 882. He thinks that the Eagles will win all 3 remaining games and finish 8th. He thinks Freo will finish fourth and that the Eagles will win their first finals game away and Freo will lose to Sydney week one.

That will mean we play the Eagles back here.

o_O
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Good news then. We won't have to travel too much and get to a prelim.
 
If we're 4th we'd be home anyway but imo North or Essendon could be a bigger threat than the Eagles if they turned up to play. That first derby final is going to be huge whenever it happens :).
 
There are 2 scenarios that favour us, and both involve Geelong, as they are the team that I would be most confident of beating in a final (Sydney and Hawks less confident). So if we get Geelong week 1, chances are we beat them over there and get a home pre-lim (this would be fking hilarious). This is looking unlikely though.

The other scenario is we vs Sydney over in Sydney, probably lose, win the Semi at home and then we would be lining up against Hawks or Geelong, depending how the other qualifying final went. We can all hope that it is Geelong because again we can beat them and get into the grand final. If however we meet Hawthorn in the Pre-lim, I think that might be as far as we go.

TL/DR hope for a game against Geelong in the final as that will be our best chance of getting to the GF.
 
Harry Reems said:
I was just listening to Michael Thompson on 882. He thinks that the Eagles will win all 3 remaining games and finish 8th. He thinks Freo will finish fourth and that the Eagles will win their first finals game away and Freo will lose to Sydney week one.

That will mean we play the Eagles back here.

o_O
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Definitely a plausible scenario. Can't see the Eagles winning their first final but you never know.
 
beetz said:
If Freo don't win their next 2-3 they don't deserve to be there. Can't worry about what everyone else is doing.

I think they'll finish 4th.
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I tend to agree. We're almost certainly going to have to beat the Hawks and the Swans away to win everything. So for me it's win week 1, have a 50/50 shot at the GF. Lose week one, and I think with our game plan and a 6 day break in there somewhere we might well fall short at the prelim.
 
Quokka said:
It's all about beating Hawthorn on Sunday for Fremantle but still I'll feel better when Port drop a game. Gold Coast have a lot to play for and Carlton are finding form so with Port's recent form you'd think they will but they're also both winnable games and until they lose again round 23 will be for a place in the top 4 almost regardless of what we do (unless we win both and get a big % lead).
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Already 6% up, and likely to beat Brisbane by a fair bit, so should be okay on the front unless Port wins by a lot. Issue will mainly arise if we lose this week.

But agree, a GC win this weekend would make me much happier than not.
 
MrSynthesist said:
True but it's just a statistical anomaly. Teams have won from 3rd and there is essentially no difference between 3rd and 4th
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There is in the sense that 4th has a free shot at top place, and plays 2nd/3rd in the Prelim.

The team that ends 3rd is more likely to win through to a home prelim, but then plays 1st away most likely in the Prelim.

So it should in theory be easier from 4th!!
 
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