Opinion Peter Bell - Should get a raise?

[Square Peg]

Yep - you'd prefer the numbers went backwards?

Mate, honestly. If you take out the shortened season 2020, your own figures showed we've improved by one win over the last three seasons. Our ladder position the last four years is 14,13,12,11. Not going backwards is not a measure of success.
I hasten to add lots of things contribute to that, not just Bell, but there's nothing here that says success

 

[WilloTree]

Mate, honestly. If you take out the shortened season 2020, your own figures showed we've improved by one win over the last three seasons. Our ladder position the last four years is 14,13,12,11. Not going backwards is not a measure of success.
I hasten to add lots of things contribute to that, not just Bell, but there's nothing here that says success

You don't think continuing to better your ladder position is good for the club?

Again, I disagree. I think we're at the point we're just going to have to leave it here. We're so far off a common ground.

 

[poshman]

You don't think getting better on the field and posting better win/loss than the previous 5 seasons is a good thing?

I disagree. I like that we're improving, but hey, you do you.

I didn't say we weren't improving. I said it wasn't much to point to.

I then asked a question that you refused to answer.

Where are you expecting us to finish next season?

I personally expect us to improve our wins by more than one. Which means I am expecting a 12-13 win season. How is that negative?

I would like to get an idea, from a range of posters, what their win/loss expectation is this year. What they would consider an acceptable improvement or regression. Why is that something people don't want to engage with?

Going by the clubs stated goals, we need to improve by at least 2 wins for us to get close to reaching the targets over a five year period. If we continue to improve by one win a season it would look like the following:

22 - 11 wins
23 - 12 wins (8th - 9th or worse % depending)
24 - 13 wins (6th to 7th % depending)
25 - 14 wins (5th to 6th)
26 - 15 wins (4th-5th)


That would mean we miss on the 5 year target. I think we have to improve by two wins this coming season because I think it is easier to go from 10 wins to 12 wins than it is to go from 12 - 14 or 13 - 15. We have to have a two win improvement in one of the next two seasons. Therefore, if I am correct (and I may not be) we need that two win improvement at a minimum this coming season if we have the best chance of hitting the clubs goals. The next part of my question is at what point do Bell or JL come under pressure in line with the clubs stated goals.

I understand those finishing places are a rough estimate. What has been consistent is that 15 wins are needed for a top five finish, and can land a team in fourth if percentage is good enough.

For those taking the position that I am just attacking Bell or the club, look through my posts, look through game day posts. Pretty much the most negative thing I say is that I am going to do some gardening so the footy doesn't ruin my mood. Hardly scathing or anywhere close to the levels of the many calling for sackings in first and second quarters when the previous coach was in place.

The club, not me, has come out with the goals. I am asking, again, what do we think it looks like next season for us to be on target for those goals? In response there has been a fair bit of personal attack but very little analysis of the question. Why are people unwilling to evaluate it?

 

[raffrox]

LMAO. It's not going to happen in a year or two but it will happen eventually?

I'll let you in on a secret, even gold coast will happen eventually. That's the way of the AFL. You keep failing for long enough and in the end you get there.

Putting the aforementioned gold coast aside, the only club that's been out of finals longer than us is Carlton. Yes we'll get back there eventually. It's almost impossible in this competition not to. I can't imagine how anyone seriously thinks waiting another year or two to get there means the prior five years are a success story.

I think we'll make the finals this year. When I said that it will take a year or two it was more around us being a consistently good team that's considered in the top handful of teams in the league.

 

[mayne iac]

What snipers?

Everything? Injuries? Surgery problems? Membership?

Always changing it? That’s a big statement. Looking at just the top four target which is not as difficult as winning the thing. I am asking - at what point does Bell or Justin come under pressure in light of a target the club came out with. I didn’t set the target. Therefore, how am I sniping?

You sound like a sniper

 

[raffrox]

I didn't say we weren't improving. I said it wasn't much to point to.

I then asked a question that you refused to answer.

Where are you expecting us to finish next season?

I personally expect us to improve our wins by more than one. Which means I am expecting a 12-13 win season. How is that negative?

I would like to get an idea, from a range of posters, what their win/loss expectation is this year. What they would consider an acceptable improvement or regression. Why is that something people don't want to engage with?

Going by the clubs stated goals, we need to improve by at least 2 wins for us to get close to reaching the targets over a five year period. If we continue to improve by one win a season it would look like the following:

22 - 11 wins
23 - 12 wins (8th - 9th or worse % depending)
24 - 13 wins (6th to 7th % depending)
25 - 14 wins (5th to 6th)
26 - 15 wins (4th-5th)


That would mean we miss on the 5 year target. I think we have to improve by two wins this coming season because I think it is easier to go from 10 wins to 12 wins than it is to go from 12 - 14 or 13 - 15. We have to have a two win improvement in one of the next two seasons. Therefore, if I am correct (and I may not be) we need that two win improvement at a minimum this coming season if we have the best chance of hitting the clubs goals. The next part of my question is at what point do Bell or JL come under pressure in line with the clubs stated goals.

I understand those finishing places are a rough estimate. What has been consistent is that 15 wins are needed for a top five finish, and can land a team in fourth if percentage is good enough.

For those taking the position that I am just attacking Bell or the club, look through my posts, look through game day posts. Pretty much the most negative thing I say is that I am going to do some gardening so the footy doesn't ruin my mood. Hardly scathing or anywhere close to the levels of the many calling for sackings in first and second quarters when the previous coach was in place.

The club, not me, has come out with the goals. I am asking, again, what do we think it looks like next season for us to be on target for those goals? In response there has been a fair bit of personal attack but very little analysis of the question. Why are people unwilling to evaluate it?

You see things progressing in a very linear way and things in a real world context rarely do. I think that's the issue I have. It's hard to not see what you're saying as purely criticism when what I feel there are arbitrary targets made.

Maybe the Melbourne board should have sacked Goodwin a few years ago?

 

[mayne iac]

Are you referring to the number of wins increasing?

I am not sure one more win than 2019 is much to point to if that is what you mean.

Where are you expecting us to finish this year?

Its exactly the the point to consider, Longmuir became coach at the time.
New coach - New list - 1 or 2 years to get the game plan into players heads etc. We should be expecting to finish in the eight or very close to the eight this year IE. Projecting upwards.
The interesting factor will be the departure of Cerra - our best midfielder last year IMO. Not an excuse but a factual reason, we will be weaker for him leaving.
in 2/3 years we will be right in the mix.

 

[poshman]

You see things progressing in a very linear way and things in a real world context rarely do. I think that's the issue I have. It's hard to not see what you're saying as purely criticism when what I feel there are arbitrary targets made.

Maybe the Melbourne board should have sacked Goodwin a few years ago?

Thank you for interacting with the post.

I would say it isn't arbitrary as the targets are not mine nor set by me, they were set by the club.

I also don't think of improvement as linear, which is why I am saying we need to have a two win season to reach the target set by the club.

 

[poshman]

Its exactly the the point to consider, Longmuir became coach at the time.
New coach - New list - 1 or 2 years to get the game plan into players heads etc. We should be expecting to finish in the eight or very close to the eight this year IE. Projecting upwards.
The interesting factor will be the departure of Cerra - our best midfielder last year IMO. Not an excuse but a factual reason, we will be weaker for him leaving.
in 2/3 years we will be right in the mix.

I agree with all of that - which is why I found the clubs announcement surprising. But since they have set the targets we have to finish in the 8 or at worst 9th on percentage if we are going to achieve those targets.

Cerra is going to be a big loss. More and more he allowed Mundy to rest as his consistency and influence increased. I think Cerra will be an AA player in the next three years, and a multi AA player over the next 5 seasons.

 

[WilloTree]

Where are you expecting us to finish next season?

I'm hoping for a top 8 finish, but that doesn't account for the myriad of things that can happen during a season.

My expectation is that we improve.

 

[poshman]

I'm hoping for a top 8 finish, but that doesn't account for the myriad of things that can happen during a season.

My expectation is that we improve.

Fair enough - mine too.

The rest is based around my thoughts if I align them with the clubs goals. We definitely need to improve our injury record if we are going to get close to anything like what we all want to see.

 

[GingerDocker]

I'm as upbeat as anyone after the draft period and see good times ahead.

The problem is, I'm not convinced that will be next year. Losing Cerra, the inevitable drop-off from Mundy and Fyfe's injury plagued off-season means we will be essentially going into round one with a lesser midfield on paper.

Obviously, the natural improvement curve our young list is on will hopefully cover some of these loses, but I'm not sure they will cover them completely in the short term.

While it will cost me a number of cartons (like most years recently) I'm not sure we make the finals.

I'm not jumping off though as we are in as good a shape, list wise, as we have been for quite some time and I'm a big believer in JL being the right person to get the best out of them.

I know this stance can be criticised as accepting, mediocrity or not being hard enough on the club, and that's fair enough, I just think it would be crazy to change anything over the next 12-18 months while we are on the current trajectory.

The examples of Richmond and Melbourne should enough of a guide. Both clubs could easily have imploded right before significant success but maintained their resolve.

We should hold the line, keep our cool and reap the rewards. There will be plenty of opportunities to sharpen the pitchforks in a few years if the results if things go pear shaped.

 

[Tony_Clifton]

Interesting to see that the numbers look quite linnear. I think that's more quirk than anything.it should be noted that though the rebuild started in 2016 we continued to lose more experienced players than we were bringing in. Meaning the uptick from maturing our youngsters was offset by the losing of older players.

2016 - 4
2017 - 8 Last year for Lachie Weller
2018 - 8 Andy and Cez debut, last year for Lachie Neale

9

Lachie Neale

Age

32

Ht

177cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

27.0

5star

K

11.5

4star

HB

15.5

5star

M

4.0

4star

T

3.7

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

28.3

5star

K

13.9

5star

HB

14.4

5star

M

4.6

4star

T

4.0

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

12.0

3star

K

4.6

2star

HB

7.4

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

1.0

3star

CL

0.4

3star

2019 - 9 last year for Brad Hill, last year for Ed Langdon

15

Ed Langdon

Age

30

Ht

182cm

Wt

78kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.0

5star

K

12.1

4star

HB

9.0

5star

M

5.0

5star

T

2.3

4star

CL

1.4

4star

D

20.3

5star

K

12.8

5star

HB

7.5

4star

M

4.5

4star

T

0.8

1star

CL

1.8

4star

D

13.0

4star

K

6.4

3star

HB

6.6

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.4

4star

CL

0.6

3star

2020 - 7*
2021 - 10
I would think it's fair to say that we have had more than the average number of games missed through injury for the last couple of years. I understand that part of that can be attributed to coaching and player management but would like to point out that part of that is also dumb luck.

It seems like we have had less off field incidents. JLo and Bell when asked what type of players we are looking to draft always mention character. I'm sure all coaches talk about character but it seems we have put an weighting on the character component when selecting draftees. I was mad at how we gave away JHo for nothing but it really doesn't bother me anymore. Same with Bennell not working out.

 

[theGav56]

I think Erasmus is going to go BANG Morabitto style.

 

[Purple Jesus]

I think Erasmus is going to go BANG Morabitto style.

Let's not put that mozza on him

 

[Tony_Clifton]

I think Erasmus is going to go BANG Morabitto style.

I too, like to live dangerously, baby

 

[IlGolf]

Going by the clubs stated goals, we need to improve by at least 2 wins for us to get close to reaching the targets over a five year period. If we continue to improve by one win a season it would look like the following:

22 - 11 wins
23 - 12 wins (8th - 9th or worse % depending)
24 - 13 wins (6th to 7th % depending)
25 - 14 wins (5th to 6th)
26 - 15 wins (4th-5th)


That would mean we miss on the 5 year target. I think we have to improve by two wins this coming season because I think it is easier to go from 10 wins to 12 wins than it is to go from 12 - 14 or 13 - 15. We have to have a two win improvement in one of the next two seasons. Therefore, if I am correct (and I may not be) we need that two win improvement at a minimum this coming season if we have the best chance of hitting the clubs goals. The next part of my question is at what point do Bell or JL come under pressure in line with the clubs stated goals.

The way I see it, your just not focusing on the long term picture:
2027 - 16 wins
2028 - 17 wins
2029 - 18 wins
2030 - 19 wins
2031 - 20 wins

by 2040 we will be winning 29 games for the season, we will be setting records that can never be broken (except by us the following year). We will be winning games we don't even play in, I for one can't wait

 

[Eski3]

I think Erasmus is going to go BANG Morabitto style.

I'd prefer him to go bang Caleb Serong style

 

[Nothing]

With a two year extension before a single game in the coaches third season, Bell would want to have a successful 2022 or he should be sacked.

 

[Eski3]

With a two year extension before a single game in the coaches third season, Bell would want to have a successful 2022 or he should be sacked.

Why would the club want an out of contract Longmuir to be an unnecessary distraction this year when we are trying to make finals?

What if someone like St Kilda have a bad year and start asking the question of Longmuir? Or West Coast commit to a rebuild and try to bring him back? We are trying to make finals not stop our coach from being poached. Locking him in now is just smart business.

 

[Nothing]

Why would the club want an out of contract Longmuir to be an unnecessary distraction this year when we are trying to make finals?

What if someone like St Kilda have a bad year and start asking the question of Longmuir? Or West Coast commit to a rebuild and try to bring him back? We are trying to make finals not stop our coach from being poached. Locking him in now is just smart business.

If you extend the coach and he fails, the GM of football should be sacked.

I want Longmuir to succeed and I want to play finals football. But, if that is Bell's thoughts (removing a distraction) then if we have a bad year, then Bell should be sacked.

 

[Eski3]

If you extend the coach and he fails, the GM of football should be sacked.

I want Longmuir to succeed and I want to play finals football. But, if that is Bell's thoughts (removing a distraction) then if we have a bad year, then Bell should be sacked.

All a GM can do is make a decision with the information he has at the time. Letting JLo get poached would be the sackable offence here, not a hindsight analysis of a 2 year extension

 

[Nothing]

All a GM can do is make a decision with the information he has at the time. Letting JLo get poached would be the sackable offence here, not a hindsight analysis of a 2 year extension

Would he be getting poached before 6-10 games of the season? At least then you would have some information from his third year to determine whether an extension is right. In my opinion, Bell has gone early and if it fails he should be sacked. If it succeeds (I really hope it does), then he has done the right thing.

The entire process, I've said Longmuir should be given into his third season before making a decision on him. In my opinion, it reeks of the boys club we currently appear to be.

If we start 0-5 (with our draw) do you think we should be extending Longmuir?

 

[Taylor]

The scale of the ambitious plan for these next five years overshadows the risk of extending a coach for two years. I'd question the plan if they didn't feel they had the right coach in place already.

Point being, if the coach fails and the system fails then there's already enough skin in the game prior to JL's extension that the entire shed would be empty once the clean up is completed.

 

[Freo Shark]

Why would the club want an out of contract Longmuir to be an unnecessary distraction this year when we are trying to make finals?

What if someone like St Kilda have a bad year and start asking the question of Longmuir? Or West Coast commit to a rebuild and try to bring him back? We are trying to make finals not stop our coach from being poached. Locking him in now is just smart business.

I can see the argument to wait till the Bye. But the weagles are vulnerable if they have a shit start. You could count on them tanking & trying to poach JLo. Do we need that distraction when we're trying to get into the finals.