Pick 3 undervalued performers for 2011

[AlibiMonday]

From your club only, pick 3 players in order who you think are going to deliver the most improvement in 2011 based on 2010's form. AND Pick one player from your club who you think others will overvalue their improvement.

Criteria:

•*Must be from your club
•*Must have played at your club last year
•*Only players you think will play at least 15 games in 2011 (non-chronic injuries permitting)

UNDERVALUED

1. Brett Meredith (prediction 70-80 SC avg +30 on 2010)
- He's definitely got the match committee's eye. Has been a little bit interrupted in the his previous years due to impact injuries, but still managed to jump the queue of his reserve peers. Always has played off the bench and struggled with the pace at seniors, but his composure was there at the end of last year - looked far more confident with the ball. I think he'll make his play this year and establish himself. He doesn't have any other choice. If he starts performing pre-season, he'll be a regular for the rest of the year.

2. Craig Bird (80-90 SC avg +25 on 2009)
- They didn't give him No.14 for nothing. Earmarked as a potential champion from the moment he was zone selected by the club. Was absolutely primed to have a breakout year but got stress fractures in the foot. Was going neck and neck Kieran Jack going into last year and both were expected to make their move - Jack obviously did averaging over 140 SC in his final 7 weeks. Bird could do something similar this year. Will start if fit.

3. Ryan O'Keefe (100-110 SC avg +15 on 2010)
- He's a quality player who continued his B&F 2009 form into 2010, then injury struck. Carried a groin from the start of May last year and his numbers fell away. Had surgery the week after the finals. If the groin's fixed, watch his value head back up.

OVERVALUED

1. Gary Rohan
- I think a lot of people will be selecting this guy. Had a great debut season last year, but I think the second year blues will kick in hard on this one. Can't see him getting many more than 10 games nor making enough of an impact to keep up the faith. He'll start to bloom in 2012/3.

 

[Ed D]

Firstly I'd just like to say Collingwood probably isn't the right club to look at when looking for improving players who will play 15+ games. I can see untried kids coming in and making an impact/scoring well, but they don't fit the criteria for this. Picking players was tricky.

Undervalued:

1. Brad Dick (predictied 80 SC ave +0 on 2010 (2 games so will be discounted))
If he stays fit he'll score well and cement a spot in the side. He has had injury problems but has proven he can score big (120+). A great user of the ball, Brad plays in the attacking half and can kick goals. Sets up a lot of scoring opportunities too. The question mark is going to be over his durability. Offers something that was missing in 2010.

2. Sharrod Wellingham (100 ave +25 on 2010)
Sharrod started last year well then suffered injuries. He came back strongly late in the year and is a starting player already. Will be a lot more consistent in 2011 barring injuries. I wouldn't say he'll be an elite but a step or two below. Still he will improve on 2010 where he had a really lean patch in the middle of the year. If you cut that out his average already moves up a lot.

3. Darren Jolly (90-100 ave +15 on 2010)
Jolly struggled big time at the start of 2010 basically because he was getting used to his role and how the team played. By the end of the year he was scoring big because he knew what he was doing and Malthouse knew how to manage him. Expect him to be one of the top scoring ruckmen in 2011.


Overvalued

1. Steele Sidebottom
I would love to be wrong about this but I think people will be expecting too much from Steele because the way he played in the Grand Final. He's a great player, but he's not a consistent high scorer and will be priced reasonably high with not a huge amount of scoring improvement to come in 1 year. He's a big game player, but can have quiet games as well which people don't seem to notice. He will improve but not as much as people expect.

 

[dlanod]

I like the concept a lot.

Here's my effort for Brisbane:

Undervalued

1. Claye Beams - The BF board is expecting him to play from round 1 or thereabouts after his work in the reserves last year. Rookie priced but has had a year in the system.

2. Xavier Clarke - Should have a very nice discount after being injured for all but about 15 minutes last year. We really need a touch of speed, so Clarke should be in as long as he's fit. High risk given the obvious injury issues, but could be worth a punt.

3. Matthew Leuenberger - Starting ruck for all next year, injury allowing. Clark has been highlighted for a move into the forward line, and the substitution changes means a starting ruck would be on full time. Put up some solid scores in the second half of last year, so hopefully he'll keep it up and be undervalued for his average.

Overvalued

1. Tom Rockliff - This probably won't be a huge surprise, but I don't think he's worth what his salary is going to be. Second year blues and all that. You won't get the big salary bump from a rookie price so you're basically gambling that he'll keep up his averages from last year.

Bonus name

One to keep your eye on - Mitch Clark. May score brilliantly as a hard-running forward, in which case he'll be undervalued after his efforts in 2010. May become inconsistent like most KPFs, in which case he's probably still overvalued. Either way, watch out for him in the preseason to see how he's traveling.

 

[TigerGlory]

Nathan Foley - Speaks for himself but at $283,700 in the fan planner he is an absolute steal, will walk into an improving midfield next year and with extra protection, will most likely improve on his previous averages.

Apart from Foley there is nothing that stands out for Richmond atm. Cotchin is apparantley having a ripper pre-season but will still start at around 400k next year so may not be worth it. Martin could suffer second year blues.

Deledio should be a lock regardless of his price. Morton could be an interesting one since he'll be playing on the wing next year but will still be priced pretty highly.

Stay away from Angus Graham who will probably struggle to break even with this year. Jack Riewoldt would probably be a bit of an unnecessary risk. Daniel Connors is a rebounding defender but could get a job every now and then as Deledio and Newman are ahead as quarter backs.

 

[Super Hans]

Undervalued: Callan Ward. Should step up and average 90+ will start cheap and rise

Ryan Griffen: we saw what he can do in this years finals an should average 05+ next year

Justin Sherman: so cheap and won't cop a tag, 90+ average

Overvalued: ???? Barry Hall maybe

 

[thomas_m18]

This is tough for the Saints as for us, it's either stars, fringe players who aren't worth touching or kids. Nevertheless:

UNDERVALUED:

1. Jason Gram: (predicted 90-95 SC average + 15-20 on 2010)

Gram is a funny one to call because his bad DT to SC conversion kills him as a reliable pick in this game. Regardless, 2010 was a year he'd probably rather forget with all of the injuries and hardships he went though and if he's fit in 2011 he should have a better year. Should be considered as a starter in a backline although he might not blossom into anything overly special.

2. David Armitage: (predicted 90 SC average +25 on 2009)

So much hype around him but had a forgetable 2010. Probably not a great starting pick because of his awkward price but could be considered. Will improve, but probably not enough to really be considered. Don't forget about him though.

3. Ben McEvoy (predicted 80 SC average +20 on 2009)

If he takes the number 1 ruck mantle he should improve his scores enough to be considered an option at least. If Gardiner stays, probably not a valid choice but I think he can average around 80. He can score, but probably would need to be the best ruck at the Saints in order to be a real consideration

OVERVALUED

1. Sam Gilbert

Only because of a forward movement is this guy probably overpriced. Quality player but probably one to avoid early in the season until his role is defined.




Look out for Adam Schneider as one to improve also if he plays more midfield.

 

[hendo8888]

Undervalued

Bernie Vince: 100+ expected. +22
Had an injury interrupted 2010. Only averaged 78 which is ridiculously underpriced for what he is capable of.

Chris Knights: 85+ expected +25
Similar to Bernie. Only played the 5 games, so could be eligible for a discount. Is a bit of an injury risk, but has 3 years in a row of over 80 before this year, so should at least reach that level again next year.

Andy Otten: 80 expected (depends on discount)
Didn't play a game this year, so should be in line for a handy discount. 30% is the usual going rate for a full year off I think. Should at least reach last year's level.

Overpriced
Richard Douglas: 80 expected (-9)
Was the one who benefitted the most from our injury list this year. Finally getting the midfield time he wanted. Don't think he will get the same amount again next year, so at best will break even, but will probably decrease imo. (could increase slightly, but not to the level that you'd want in a keeper, which he'd need to be at his price)

 

[blueiris]

undervalued players1.Jonathan Brown I problely be howled down but when superstars get injured their price drops the next year and when fully fit he is the best forward in the game and scores high scores I think he'll be over his injury and will be ready to push the club towards a finals berth.
2.Jared polec-This kid has played two years of senior football for Woodville West Torrens and I think will step up to Afl with no trouble at all and his only 18.
3.Pearce Hanley-He didn't play many games last year but when he did i liked what i saw he has pace to burn and i see him playing on the wing and getting underestermated by the oppossion.
I tend to overvaule all the brisbane lions players so it's hard to pick just one but if i had to it would be Todd Bandfield I love this kid but he goes missing in games but I think the trip to Ireland has gone along way to fixing that.
my kid to watch this year is Josh Green.

 

[muttonchops]

Undervalued

James Kelly - 95 SC last year. Expected 2011 105+ (predicted price $403,500)

With Ablett gone Kelly will have a greater on ball roll next year and still will go untagged with the likes of Selwood, Bartel etc. Will be a definite keeper that will give you 100+ point average.

Travis Varcoe - 75 SC last year. Expected 2011 90-95 ave (predicted price $329,000)

Another who will get more onball time next year and with his ability to go forward and kick goals is a juicy prospect for SC next year. Also i a great tackler sure to help gets points. Could be a keeper especially if named as a forward.

Daniel Menzel - 49 SC lst year. Expected 2011 70 (predicted price $209,300)

Should get plenty of opportunities next year and should be good to earn some cash if he plays early. Is highly rated and is a goal kicker.

Overpriced

James Podsiadly - 81 SC last year. Expected 2011 about the same (predicted price $349,000)

Was a super bargain last year and will still gets you points next year. Can be inconsistent but for that price there will be better.

 

[coryne]

Undervalued

Gibbs. 2010 value. 103 SC points. 2011 value +115 (+12 points).

He probably won't be the biggest improver in the team but he is VERY underrated IMO. Sure he had an up and down season last year, but still averaged +100 points despite being played out of position for the majority of the season. Will HOPEFULLY be released back into the midfield and tear games apart in 2011. Will also be good value if his 460K finishing price is anything to go by

Bower. 2010 value 75 SC points. 2011 value +90 (+15 points)

Bower can be a bit of a whipping boy in the Blues side, but he played a fair chunk of last year injured and should (hopefully) get a full pre-season under his belt and hit next season running. His first 2 games were great, but due to various niggles he wasn't able to carry it through the rest of the season when he was probably played more out of necessity than good planning.

Walker. 2010 value 69 SC points. 2011 value 85+ (+16 points)

Walker was thrown around a fair bit last year, but will hopefully settle into the midfield/forwardline for next year. If he plays through the midfield, and can use his run and carry, then his price should jump up a fair bit from last year. He may also be a MPP/DEF who actually plays a fair portion in the forward line/midfield, so he could be good value.


Overrated.

Does anyone actually value Carlton players ??? hehe.

Scotland. If I had to pick a player who will drop down in price next year it would probably be Scotland. He had a GREAT year last year, averaging 93 points (much higher than I expected) but he will be 31 yrs old in July next year, and I think the competition for midfield time will be increased with Gibbs being released from the backline, Walker promised more midfield time and players such as Lucas/Mclean coming back from injury.

 

[TigerGlory]

Undervalued

Gibbs. 2010 value. 103 SC points. 2011 value +115 (+12 points).

He probably won't be the biggest improver in the team but he is VERY underrated IMO. Sure he had an up and down season last year, but still averaged +100 points despite being played out of position for the majority of the season. Will HOPEFULLY be released back into the midfield and tear games apart in 2011. Will also be good value if his 460K finishing price is anything to go by

Not sure about Gibbs. From what ive seen his best asset is his real sharp kicking and thats a quality best suited for a running half back. I think the Blues have enough quality midfielders that Gibbs wont get much of a run there and you'll probably utilize him as more of a running backman.

He'll still get good scores, but theres lots of things to consider. Among which is the potential possibility that his scores could lower slightly with less midfield time.

I would think Carlton will be pushing McLean into the midfield and with an extra year into the development of your other up and comers, I would think that Gibbs may be utilized as a running back.

If he is classified as a back in SuperCoach, I would definatley pick him though! I have the same attitude with Deledio.

 

[coryne]

Not sure about Gibbs. From what ive seen his best asset is his real sharp kicking and thats a quality best suited for a running half back. I think the Blues have enough quality midfielders that Gibbs wont get much of a run there and you'll probably utilize him as more of a running backman.

He'll still get good scores, but theres lots of things to consider. Among which is the potential possibility that his scores could lower slightly with less midfield time.

I would think Carlton will be pushing McLean into the midfield and with an extra year into the development of your other up and comers, I would think that Gibbs may be utilized as a running back.

If he is classified as a back in SuperCoach, I would definatley pick him though! I have the same attitude with Deledio.

IMO, and the opinion of MANY Carlton supporters, Carlton went after Laidler (and recruited Duigan) with the view of using them in the same role as what Gibbs played this yeah across the HBF line, releasing Gibbs into the midfield.

The kid was equal 10th in the Brownlow in 2009 playing through the midfield in his 3rd year, and will hopefully be doing the same next year

 

[eskimo]

If the fanplanner is anything to go by -

Undervalued

Colin Sylvia - 2010 avg 88, exp 2011 avg 100+
This could very well be the year of Colin Sylvia. Undoubted talent, but injury has hit hard. Last year was very unlucky with the blood clot in his foot, and a very unlikely injury. PLayed 4 or 5 games with the injury which hurt his average. According to training reports is in the best condition ever (who isn't?) and could really go from a good player to a star this year. Gets lots of touches and kicks goals.

Ricky Petterd - 2010 avg 83.8, exp 2011 avg 95+
In the few games that Ricky played last year he started to show a lot. Average went down as a result of the game he got injured in (from memory only scored 20 or so that game). Works hard up the ground, takes a good contested grab and uses the ball pretty well. Will not be an absolute out and out star, but will give you the same performance week in week out. If the fanplanner price of $254k is right, then he should be in 100% of teams around the country!

Jeremy Howe - no score for 2010, exp 2011 avg 60-70
From all reports Jeremy is a chance to play rd1. With a bargain basement price of $87k, his price will rocket up if he is given the opportunity. He is a great contested mark in a forward line that lacks those options up forward. Comes into the AFL system at 20 years old, and has played senior footy. Only downside I can see is that he might be an option to get "subbed" out as his fitness might not be at AFL standard just yet. Should definately be considered as a bench option.

Overvalued -
Possibly Jack Grimes - Coming back from yet another injury, durability is the only question mark over "Frank." He wont go up by any great degree in 2011, unless he goes into the midfield (I don't think it's likely given our other options and how well he plays across half back). He has been on the Demons list for 3 years and has only played 25 games, so although he will give you a score of what he is worth (will score you 85-105 every week) is he really worth the risk at that price?

 

[Double the Fist]

Undervalued

Cant be ****ed looking up SC values but I will give my 2c anyway.

Sam Butler Has a durability risk attatched but if he is fit and firing will get a lot of the ball in the backline and through the midfield.
Is very fit and has had a very solid pre-season.
If he can stay on the field I think he'll score in the 80-90s consistantly.

Josh Kennedy Risky but should increase score output. Was hampered by injury last year abut has had a great pre-season and is looking the goods.
Price would have dropped last year due to us being shit, and him being hampered.
Will share the forward like with Cox and Naita at times but will be the pack busting gut running forward for us.
We wont be that shit this year so we will kick a few more goals.....

Dean Cox Cox is reported to be very fit, and running very very well. Training repots has him a little bit thinner and slightly faster.
Should be his last year at the top of his game. Was cruelled by injury last year but sat out a fair bit and looks to have recovered.
Will be great in SC this year.

Overvalued
Might surprise everyone but I think Luke Shuey may only increase a little. I beilieve he will be tagged most of the time this year, meaning Priddis may get even more of the ball. Make no mistake he will be a jet. His high to midrange price will not make him that much of a bargain pick.

Regards
DTF