Pointless Statistical Analysis Which Will Only Waste Your Time

[The Royal Sampler]

Seems to me that the 2008 National Draft was a bit of an anomaly with us picking up a few "sliders", at least according to their Burgatron rankings which are of course only one interpretation, but probably also BF perception. So I've backtracked for the Hine years and worked out where players were projected to go in relation to where we got them, leaving out F/S selections, mature recruits and Irish wunderkinds, so we can see what "steals" we've stumbled upon, what "reaches" we've made, and what success we've had with them.

Ratings:
0-3 spots from ranking: "neutral"
4-10 spots from ranking: "slight" reach/steal
11-25 spots from ranking: reach/steal
26+ spots from ranking: "major" reach/steal
Where (National Drafted) players were not drafted by Burgatron I've just taken a punt

2004
Chris Egan #10 (Burgatron: #13 to Melbourne) neutral
Sean Rusling #23 (Burgatron: correct) neutral
Adam Iacobucci #55 (Burgatron: undrafted) reach

Rookies
Ben Davies (Burgatron: undrafted) neutral
Harry O'Brien (Burgatron: undrafted) neutral

2005
Dale Thomas #2 (Burgatron: #5) neutral
Scott Pendlebury #5 (Burgatron: #13 to West Coast) slight reach
Danny Stanley #21 (Burgatron: #15 to Geelong) slight steal
Ryan Cook #23 (Burgatron: #70 to Port Adelaide) major reach
John Anthony #37 (Burgatron: undrafted) reach
Sam Iles PSD (Burgatron: #51 to Sydney) steal

Rookies
Alan Toovey (Burgatron: #27 to WBD) major steal
Danny Nicholls (Burgatron: undrafted) neutral
Shannon Cox (Burgatron: undrafted) neutral

2006
Ben Reid #8 (Burgatron: #13 to Richmond) slight reach
Nathan Brown #10 (Burgatron: #15 to Sydney) slight reach
Chris Dawes #28 (Burgatron: #63 to Collingwood) major reach
Brad Dick #44 (Burgatron: #42 to Essendon) neutral
Tyson Goldsack #63 (Burgatron: undrafted) slight reach

Rookies
Sharrod Wellingham (Burgatron: undrafted) neutral
Brent MacAffer (Burgatron: undrafted) neutral

2007
John McCarthy #31 (Burgatron: #38 to Adelaide) slight reach
Tobias Thoolen #47 (Burgatron: undrafted) reach

Rookies
Luke Casey-Leigh (Burgatron: undrafted) neutral

2008
Steele Sidebottom #11 (Burgatron revised: correct) neutral
Dayne Beams #29 (Burgatron revised: #19 to Melbourne) slight steal
Jarrad Blight #45 (Burgatron: #36 to WCE) slight steal
Luke Rounds #46 (Burgatron: #49 to Geelong) neutral

So the wash-up so far, is that our biggest "steals" in previous draft years have been Stanley (slight), Iles and Toovey. Not sure that bodes altogether well for the 2008 draft where we've scored the most "steals" since 2005. Having said that, Beams was originally touted as a pick #29 and later revised, so he could easily have been a "neutral". Blight, in Burgatron's wrap, was said to be "more likely" to go at #18 or #20 and yet he picked him at #36. Go figure.

Perhaps interestingly, of the delisted players, 4 were classed as "neutral", 2 as "reaches" and 1 as a "steal", but then we've had so few "steals" (only 3 before 2008) there are few representing the category.

So all in all, we learn very little if anything from all of this, it's very subjective, but hopefully they all turn out to be guns and I've wasted some more time before the rookie draft.

 

[duds0101]

Atleast someone bothered to do it. Good read.

 

[Dave The Man]

Good Read and The biggest steal was Probably was Toovey rated as a Possible 2nd Rounder and we got him in the Rookie Draft

 

[sirlothie]

Good Read and The biggest steal was Probably was Toovey rated as a Possible 2nd Rounder and we got him in the Rookie Draft

Yeah and what dividends!

 

[Dave The Man]

Yeah and what dividends!

That probably why he Slid so far

 

[Dave The Man]

Also Intresting where actually most picks where reaches and not Steals.

Well Dawes was only a Major Reach because of his Injury and Burgan had no Idea where he would go

 

[beez]

So our so called "steals" really haven't done much. Kinda makes sense then doesn't it?

 

[duds0101]

Also Intresting where actually most picks where reaches and not Steals.

Well Dawes was only a Major Reach because of his Injury and Burgan had no Idea where he would go

That is fair to him in saying that hard to predict that sort of thing.

 

[Dave The Man]

That is fair to him in saying that hard to predict that sort of thing.

Well No One was 100% sure where he would go - I heard pre-injury he was a Possible 1st Rounder

 

[bucksisbest]

From my understanding the Burgatron mock drafts are based on whispers he hears about who your club is going to draft , or has strong interest in , rather than a consensus order of draft watchers and 'experts'. So it is probably a poor sample to do such an exercise with.

 

[duds0101]

Well No One was 100% sure where he would go - I heard pre-injury he was a Possible 1st Rounder

Yeah - I love this world of footy - Its so etertaining.

 

[Dave The Man]

From my understanding the Burgatron mock drafts are based on whispers he hears about who your club is going to draft , or has strong interest in , rather than a consensus order of draft watchers and 'experts'. So it is probably a poor sample to do such an exercise with.

Well its no worse than what people say on here

 

[motr]

Great title.

 

[smiddaz123]

Well No One was 100% sure where he would go - I heard pre-injury he was a Possible 1st Rounder

You were fed bullshit then.

He was always rated a mid-late second rounder. He was predicted to slide due to injury, but we decided he was still worth that.

 

[Dave The Man]

You were fed bullshit then.

He was always rated a mid-late second rounder. He was predicted to slide due to injury, but we decided he was still worth that.

Where did you hear that.

Got that Info here:
http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showpost.php?p=9795017&postcount=49