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Poker: Luck vs skill?

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jerry springer

jerry springer

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Greetings all, longtime reader of this forum first time poster.I have over the past 12-18 months started playing regular poker to at this stage to quite a basic social level.

Started off mainly on Zynga poker on facebook then have migrated to 888 games for small amounts of change.From there I have been playing quite a few games of real poker with some mates in perth on a friday night.To start off got quite a rude shock how much harder it was in real life and the fact for me that i dont own a poker face at all.Im still about 6 months off actually going up to the burwood casino or finding a pub comp and seeing out I go for real with a couple of hundred.

Anyway enough of my background,my question is this.In your estimation how much % would you put on your skill winning you regular poker hands over how much you think pure luck has to play a part?

Cheers
 
jerry springer said:
Greetings all, longtime reader of this forum first time poster.I have over the past 12-18 months started playing regular poker to at this stage to quite a basic social level.

Started off mainly on Zynga poker on facebook then have migrated to 888 games for small amounts of change.From there I have been playing quite a few games of real poker with some mates in perth on a friday night.To start off got quite a rude shock how much harder it was in real life and the fact for me that i dont own a poker face at all.Im still about 6 months off actually going up to the burwood casino or finding a pub comp and seeing out I go for real with a couple of hundred.

Anyway enough of my background,my question is this.In your estimation how much % would you put on your skill winning you regular poker hands over how much you think pure luck has to play a part?

Cheers
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The more hands you play the more skill comes into it. Over a 1 hand sample it might be 10% skill 90% luck or something like that. Over 10,000,000 hands I'd say it's 100% skill.

The beauty of the game is that it appears to be a lot about luck when you first play but over time you recognise the skills that are involved.

People who blame their bad results on luck, lack of good cards, a particular poker site being rigged etc are just really bad players who can't be bothered reading a poker book, learning about the game and recognising how to plug holes in their game.

Luck is for losers.
 
Why do you think the same five guys make it to the final table of the World Series of Poker every year?

What, are they the luckiest guys in Las Vegas?
 
jerry springer said:
Anyway enough of my background,my question is this.In your estimation how much % would you put on your skill winning you regular poker hands over how much you think pure luck has to play a part?
Click to expand...

Firstly, it's important to realise that it's not the number of pots you win or even the proportion of pots you win that is important, but rather the net winnings (wins-losses).

Secondly, whether you win an individual hand is almost entirely down to luck. In some cases, you are more likely to win a hand if you are a bad player (e.g if you pick up 72o under the gun).

Whether you win a particular session is almost entirely down to luck. Even whether you win over a week of regular sessions is very significantly dictated by luck.

On the other hand, whether you are a net winner after a million hands is 100% down to skill. One of the problems with live poker is that it takes a very long time to play a million hands, and there are probably many live players who are "lifetime cooler" or "lifetime heater" players where the weight of luck has overwhelmed their skill or lack thereof over the relatively small number of hands they are able to play.

This variability is also one of the secrets of poker's success. It can take a very long time to figure out if you are a good or a bad player, and some players never really figure out they are a fish, because they can always put a bad session or a bad month down to "variance".
 

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paxmaniac said:
Firstly, it's important to realise that it's not the number of pots you win or even the proportion of pots you win that is important, but rather the net winnings (wins-losses).

Secondly, whether you win an individual hand is almost entirely down to luck. In some cases, you are more likely to win a hand if you are a bad player (e.g if you pick up 72o under the gun).

Whether you win a particular session is almost entirely down to luck. Even whether you win over a week of regular sessions is very significantly dictated by luck.

On the other hand, whether you are a net winner after a million hands is 100% down to skill. One of the problems with live poker is that it takes a very long time to play a million hands, and there are probably many live players who are "lifetime cooler" or "lifetime heater" players where the weight of luck has overwhelmed their skill or lack thereof over the relatively small number of hands they are able to play.

This variability is also one of the secrets of poker's success. It can take a very long time to figure out if you are a good or a bad player, and some players never really figure out they are a fish, because they can always put a bad session or a bad month down to "variance".
Click to expand...


So when do I know I'm no good?


I have been a long time player with friends, but over the last 3 months have been playing tournaments on pokerstars. I normally play $12, I have probably played 30 tournaments final tabled 4 times and won once (180 people per tournament). Once I get down to the last 20 or so it seems like people either fold or go all in. Going all in before the flop seems to be a bit of a coin toss most of the time IMO.
 
Kruzering said:
So when do I know I'm no good?
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That's the million dollar question. Some people will never know, which is why poker will always be a good game.

I have been a long time player with friends, but over the last 3 months have been playing tournaments on pokerstars. I normally play $12, I have probably played 30 tournaments final tabled 4 times and won once (180 people per tournament). Once I get down to the last 20 or so it seems like people either fold or go all in. Going all in before the flop seems to be a bit of a coin toss most of the time IMO.
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Great start, obviously, but I expect you still have a lot to learn. Read books, watch videos, analyse hands. When the blinds get relatively big (compared to stacks) at the end of a tournament, push or fold becomes the correct strategy for many hands and situations.
 
paxmaniac said:
That's the million dollar question. Some people will never know, which is why poker will always be a good game.



Great start, obviously, but I expect you still have a lot to learn. Read books, watch videos, analyse hands. When the blinds get relatively big (compared to stacks) at the end of a tournament, push or fold becomes the correct strategy for many hands and situations.
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Yeah, I have been working on playing position, and reading position eg, if someone is early and push they usually have something good.

Also researched the order of most winning hands, was surprised to see how important a high kicker is. eg. Apparently A,5o is worse than J,10s etc.

Anyway, it's a very enjoyable game, and I hope to improve every few months...and hopefully not be one of these "never realises they're rubbish" type player.
 
Kruzering said:
So when do I know I'm no good?
Click to expand...

Its an interesting question and to answer it really needs an understanding of what you want to achieve out of playing poker;

Is it

entertainment
win regular online tournaments
win a pub poker tourney
Grind money out of cash tables at the Casino
Win the Aussies Millions
Earn a WPT or WSOP bracelet
Become a professional and travel the world.


Personally, I'm a poker tragic and see cards of some kind every day and consider myself a sucessful poker player.

Whilst this is the case my player profile can be summarised as follows;

  • Typically Only play micro stake tournaments, heads up, sit'nGo, and double up games online and have no idea how to withdraw money from my account, but are familiar with how to deposit funds (and hide it from my wife)
  • have only ever played once (at a casino) at Star City in Auckland and was felted in a cash game in about 8 hands
  • Played in a pub tourney once In Bunbury and made it to the final table as the short stack
  • My only saving grace is a regular monthly tournament that I typically co-ordiante for a bunch of mates (5-7 players $20 buyin) where I have won enough times to more than cover my other other poker losses.
I am sure almost 99% of you who read this would not consider the above to represent a sucessful poker player, however for me Poker is primarily entertainment but with a burning desire to play well and win.

I have harboured aspirations of trying to improve and take my game to the next level and perhaps play more seriously at Crown, however I fear that may end in Divorce.

Consequently I am grinding away online trying to improve my game by "doing the math".
 
paxmaniac said:
Firstly, it's important to realise that it's not the number of pots you win or even the proportion of pots you win that is important, but rather the net winnings (wins-losses).

Secondly, whether you win an individual hand is almost entirely down to luck. In some cases, you are more likely to win a hand if you are a bad player (e.g if you pick up 72o under the gun).

Whether you win a particular session is almost entirely down to luck. Even whether you win over a week of regular sessions is very significantly dictated by luck.

On the other hand, whether you are a net winner after a million hands is 100% down to skill. One of the problems with live poker is that it takes a very long time to play a million hands, and there are probably many live players who are "lifetime cooler" or "lifetime heater" players where the weight of luck has overwhelmed their skill or lack thereof over the relatively small number of hands they are able to play.

This variability is also one of the secrets of poker's success. It can take a very long time to figure out if you are a good or a bad player, and some players never really figure out they are a fish, because they can always put a bad session or a bad month down to "variance".
Click to expand...

that makes a lot of sense:thumbsu:

Cheers guys overall some interesting feedback
 
in any tourney you will probably need to get lucky to cash let alone win. i copped a sick run of beats in tourneys and now will not generally play them.

the famous ol' ace o'diamonds on the river at stars still tilts me so hard.

cash game is more interesting imo to play and watch on tv. compare HSP to ESPN ME. it is also more profitable.
 

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DoggyStyle said:
fair call. Care to elaborate on your overall bank roll to date?
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I'm a uni student with a part-time job. However poker is my main source of income. I will generally play a minimum 20 hours pw.

I'm primarily a $2/5NL live player. Have a pretty reasonable amount of hands online, but i find the live games at crown more profitable. I just moved back up after a stint down rebuilding my roll at 2/3 after a cold streak/substantial holiday.

$2/5 bankroll is currently >$20k (strictly designated for poker). I had a good week this week, so i've also just taken $5k out of my BR for spending.
 
checkraiseulite said:
I'm a uni student with a part-time job. However poker is my main source of income. I will generally play a minimum 20 hours pw.

I'm primarily a $2/5NL live player. Have a pretty reasonable amount of hands online, but i find the live games at crown more profitable. I just moved back up after a stint down rebuilding my roll at 2/3 after a cold streak/substantial holiday.

$2/5 bankroll is currently >$20k (strictly designated for poker). I had a good week this week, so i've also just taken $5k out of my BR for spending.
Click to expand...
:thumbsu:Thanks for sharing and re-affirming my thoughts on not taking my game to crown.
 
When I win....it's skill. When I lose....it's bad luck. :D

I'm at an awkward point in my play. I'm better than any of my mates, go ok in pub environments (not aggressive enough), and win at the casino small stakes - but online and higher stakes casino I just get chewed up.

I tend to go well for long periods of time at low stakes, then cop one big hit that undoes the last few hours work. There's nothing quite like playing 8 hours, being $1400 up, and then losing 3 hands in the last ten minutes to stand up with just $300.
 
The same people make it to the WSOP final tables because its about as well run as a chook raffle at a McDonalds.

People cheat at the WSOP main event constantly and they get away with it. Namely tables stop playing near the bubble
 

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The skill v luck debate is one that was solved 100 years ago but still needs to be proved and visited every day it seems

Short term is a great deal of luck. Every session on its own is going to have a bearing of luck involved. Whats important to remember is cards dont have memory or a brain. They arent aware of whos playing and who needs luck and who doesnt. Over time, with 9 players at a table, each player is going to be dealt an equal number of winning and losing hands. Its how you play those hands that defines whether you are a winner or loser

There is no secret or magic book to read that will make you a good player. It is purely time at the table and an overall effort to take information from various sources to improve your game. I couldnt say how many times in the short time I've been playing that I've thought I've figured it out and I've learnt all there is to know. Then in a few months I'll look back on those times and realise how little I actually knew.

The point is you'll never stop learning, and at each individual point you may think you know everything there is to know and you just need to put those points into practice, I guarantee in another month you'll relfect and realize you knew nothing at all

In the online rigged debate: its been discussed over and over again, anybody with decent experience will tell you it isnt, it seems all the new players throw out the 'its rigged' theory to explain why they are losing. The truth is it isnt rigged and there is no need for it to be, the sites are guaranteed to make money so there is zero reason to play with the decks to create conspiracys or ruin the legitimacy of the site. If I happened to ever have the ability to operate an online pokersite, I would pour every spare penny I had into ensuring the games were legit and there were no bugs with the software because it would only take 1 issue to have people flee your site like rats on a sinking ship.
 
JuddsABlue said:
In the online rigged debate: its been discussed over and over again, anybody with decent experience will tell you it isnt, it seems all the new players throw out the 'its rigged' theory to explain why they are losing.
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It's not quite that simple. Ultimate Bet and Absolute proved that online poker can and has been rigged. It's possible there is some site-level cheating going on still (probably at some small obscure sites), and I'd almost guarantee there will be another massive scandal sometime in the future. Add to that the poker bots (of which Stars and Tilt discover and ban a few fairly regularly), and the fact that AIs are improving every day, plus collusion which also happens on a regular basis. Sites can also go bankrupt, or dodgy operators can run off with your money (e.g Eurolinx).

The fact is that it isn't rigged the vast majority of the time, but that you do have to be careful.
 
paxmaniac said:
It's not quite that simple. Ultimate Bet and Absolute proved that online poker can and has been rigged. It's possible there is some site-level cheating going on still (probably at some small obscure sites), and I'd almost guarantee there will be another massive scandal sometime in the future. Add to that the poker bots (of which Stars and Tilt discover and ban a few fairly regularly), and the fact that AIs are improving every day, plus collusion which also happens on a regular basis. Sites can also go bankrupt, or dodgy operators can run off with your money (e.g Eurolinx).

The fact is that it isn't rigged the vast majority of the time, but that you do have to be careful.
Click to expand...

Its not that simple depending on what you define as 'rigged'

In the case of the superuser yes thats happened and can happen again. However things like coding in the RNG to bring hell on new players or increase certain players ability to flop sets etc is nonsense

Bots are not rigged they are players they dont have an unfair advantage other than being smarter than you, but they dont have the ability to change cards or create cold decks. A bot can be profitable against if you know its a bot

Certain small sites are shady as hell yes which is why I keep my traffic on Stars and Tilt and why anybody else would play on those sites amazes me but the general 'online poker is rigged' debate isnt really a debate

Which online sites cannot be trusted is a debate and an important one at that, but the two are different altogether
 

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