eth-dog
Tier 1 WW Player
So apparently we have a game before the Community Series. I'm guessing everyone fit will get a gig. Tell me if you want anything added to this, will see if I can work it in for one of the pre-season games.
Observations
Melbourne: After a terrible season Melbourne were hoping for a lot fewer injuries in pre season and that's been mostly the case, apart from one or two players. Expect to see first round draftees Luke Jackson and Kysaiah Pickett play in a couple of these matches for the big game, the Dees unlikely to have too many feature in the Charity match.
Essendon: The Dons have had a shocking run of injuries and unavailabilities over this pre-season, with most of the list having an interrupted run over the past 3 months or so. Along with the fact that a few of the better players are likely to be playing in the State of Origin Charity match, expect a weakened Bombers outfit for this match
Head to Head (last 5)
Melbourne 2-3 Essendon
Form Guide
Melbourne: 0W 0L
Essendon: 0W 0L
Sportsbet odds
West Coast: N/A
Essendon: N/A
Line: N/A ($1.90)
Possible sides
Melbourne vs Essendon
B: Aaron Francis - Brandon Zerk-Thatcher - Adam Saad
F: Austin Bradtke - Mitchell Brown - Kysaiah Pickett
HB: Jordan Ridley - Patrick Ambrose - Mason Redman
HF: Toby Bedford - Sam Weideman - Oskar Baker
C: Andrew McGrath - Devon Smith - Brayden Ham
C: Aaron Nietschke - Kyle Dunkley - Tom Sparrow
HF: Josh Begley - Harrison Jones - Ned Cahill
HB: Trent Rivers - Harrison Petty - Jordan James
F: Irving Mosquito - Shaun McKernan - Will Snelling
B: Marty Hore - Jake Lever - Joel Smith
R: Andrew Phillips - Kobe Mutch - Dylan Clarke
R: Luke Jackson - Kade Chandler - Jay Lockhart
I: Darcy Parish - Ross McQuillan - Kyle Langford - Tom Cutler
I: Charlie Spargo - Jordan Wagner - Kade Kolodjashnij - Ed Langdon
I: Matthew Guelfi - Cian McBride - Jacob Townsend - Nick Bryan
I: Harley Bennell - Jayden Hunt - Aaron Vandenberg - Jake Melksham
Melbourne in: N/A; Out: N/A
Essendon in: N/A; Out: N/A
Melbourne defence vs Essendon forward line
Essendon were ranked 10th in the AFL in terms of goals per inside 50 entry last season, getting one 22.3% of the time it enters the 50. Melbourne on the other hand were third last in terms of conceding goals per forward fifty entry, conceding a goal 25.9% of the time as it entered their defensive 50. The Dons aren't fielding a strong forward line with a few best 22 forwards out injured or possibly part of the State of Origin squad, so Shaun McKernan and draftee Harrison Jones will be the key posts, as well as giving the likes of Josh Begley and Will Snelling a chance to stake their claim, and young smalls Ned Cahill and Irving Mosquito a chance to impress fans as well. For Melbourne, Jake Lever and Harrison Petty are likely to take the talls whilst teenagers Trent Rivers and Jordan James get a good chance to show off as well.
Midfield/rucks battle
Essendon struggled in the clearances in the back half of the last year, their last 11 games going from 4th down to 12th overall, whilst Melbourne finished 3rd overall in this particular area. Essendon will be buoyed by the inclusion of 2018 best and fairest winner Devon Smith, who missed most of the following year with a knee injury, and the likes of Dylan Clarke and Kobe Mutch will be hopeful of a strong showing as well, whilst Melbourne will be looking at mid season draftee Kyle Dunkley, brother of Bulldogs star Josh, along with mature aged recruit from last season Jay Lockhart and perennially injured Aaron Vandenberg on the inside. Outside the contest, expect Andrew McGrath to try to control proceedings along with recruit Tom Cutler using their run and carry whilst Melbourne will hope Kade Kolodjashnij and former Docker Ed Langdon do the same for them. Rucks wise, Luke Jackson and Austin Bradtke are inexperienced but are coming up against Andrew Phillips and Nick Bryan, the former having struggled previously at AFL level whilst the latter is just as inexperienced as the Melbourne pair
Melbourne forward line vs Essendon defence
Melbourne struggled forward of centre last season with an injury interrupted season from Tom McDonald, ranking second last in goals/inside 50 with only a conversion of 18.8%. Essendon have a relatively strong back 7, conceding a goal 21.2% of the time it enters defensive 50, 6th in the league in this area last year. Melbourne will attempt to hit Essendon with height with the likes of Austin Bradtke, Sam Weideman and former Don Mitchell Brown, the trio most likely to be combated by Brandon Zerk-Thatcher, Aaron Francis and Patrick Ambrose respectively, whilst high draft pick Kysaiah Pickett will have a tough time against Adam Saad as the main small forwards.
X-Factor Player
Ned Cahill has been talked about as the underage draftee most likely to have an impact in 2020 for Essendon, his endurance and ability to kick goals exciting most bomber fans, so most Dons will be excited to see how he goes against men.
Key stat
Melbourne: Inside 50's conceded. Melbourne's defence was terrible in 2019, they need to arrest that. Best way to not concede goals is to not allow the ball to get up there.
Essendon: Clearances. As of Round 13: 4th in the league. Post round 14: -40 in clearances, bottom 4 in the AFL. Absolutely vital they get this right.
Tip
Hopefully we win but it looks unlikely. Dees by 25.
Observations
Melbourne: After a terrible season Melbourne were hoping for a lot fewer injuries in pre season and that's been mostly the case, apart from one or two players. Expect to see first round draftees Luke Jackson and Kysaiah Pickett play in a couple of these matches for the big game, the Dees unlikely to have too many feature in the Charity match.
Essendon: The Dons have had a shocking run of injuries and unavailabilities over this pre-season, with most of the list having an interrupted run over the past 3 months or so. Along with the fact that a few of the better players are likely to be playing in the State of Origin Charity match, expect a weakened Bombers outfit for this match
Head to Head (last 5)
Melbourne 2-3 Essendon
Form Guide
Melbourne: 0W 0L
Essendon: 0W 0L
Sportsbet odds
West Coast: N/A
Essendon: N/A
Line: N/A ($1.90)
Possible sides
Melbourne vs Essendon
B: Aaron Francis - Brandon Zerk-Thatcher - Adam Saad
F: Austin Bradtke - Mitchell Brown - Kysaiah Pickett
HB: Jordan Ridley - Patrick Ambrose - Mason Redman
HF: Toby Bedford - Sam Weideman - Oskar Baker
C: Andrew McGrath - Devon Smith - Brayden Ham
C: Aaron Nietschke - Kyle Dunkley - Tom Sparrow
HF: Josh Begley - Harrison Jones - Ned Cahill
HB: Trent Rivers - Harrison Petty - Jordan James
F: Irving Mosquito - Shaun McKernan - Will Snelling
B: Marty Hore - Jake Lever - Joel Smith
R: Andrew Phillips - Kobe Mutch - Dylan Clarke
R: Luke Jackson - Kade Chandler - Jay Lockhart
I: Darcy Parish - Ross McQuillan - Kyle Langford - Tom Cutler
I: Charlie Spargo - Jordan Wagner - Kade Kolodjashnij - Ed Langdon
I: Matthew Guelfi - Cian McBride - Jacob Townsend - Nick Bryan
I: Harley Bennell - Jayden Hunt - Aaron Vandenberg - Jake Melksham
Melbourne in: N/A; Out: N/A
Essendon in: N/A; Out: N/A
Melbourne defence vs Essendon forward line
Essendon were ranked 10th in the AFL in terms of goals per inside 50 entry last season, getting one 22.3% of the time it enters the 50. Melbourne on the other hand were third last in terms of conceding goals per forward fifty entry, conceding a goal 25.9% of the time as it entered their defensive 50. The Dons aren't fielding a strong forward line with a few best 22 forwards out injured or possibly part of the State of Origin squad, so Shaun McKernan and draftee Harrison Jones will be the key posts, as well as giving the likes of Josh Begley and Will Snelling a chance to stake their claim, and young smalls Ned Cahill and Irving Mosquito a chance to impress fans as well. For Melbourne, Jake Lever and Harrison Petty are likely to take the talls whilst teenagers Trent Rivers and Jordan James get a good chance to show off as well.
Midfield/rucks battle
Essendon struggled in the clearances in the back half of the last year, their last 11 games going from 4th down to 12th overall, whilst Melbourne finished 3rd overall in this particular area. Essendon will be buoyed by the inclusion of 2018 best and fairest winner Devon Smith, who missed most of the following year with a knee injury, and the likes of Dylan Clarke and Kobe Mutch will be hopeful of a strong showing as well, whilst Melbourne will be looking at mid season draftee Kyle Dunkley, brother of Bulldogs star Josh, along with mature aged recruit from last season Jay Lockhart and perennially injured Aaron Vandenberg on the inside. Outside the contest, expect Andrew McGrath to try to control proceedings along with recruit Tom Cutler using their run and carry whilst Melbourne will hope Kade Kolodjashnij and former Docker Ed Langdon do the same for them. Rucks wise, Luke Jackson and Austin Bradtke are inexperienced but are coming up against Andrew Phillips and Nick Bryan, the former having struggled previously at AFL level whilst the latter is just as inexperienced as the Melbourne pair
Melbourne forward line vs Essendon defence
Melbourne struggled forward of centre last season with an injury interrupted season from Tom McDonald, ranking second last in goals/inside 50 with only a conversion of 18.8%. Essendon have a relatively strong back 7, conceding a goal 21.2% of the time it enters defensive 50, 6th in the league in this area last year. Melbourne will attempt to hit Essendon with height with the likes of Austin Bradtke, Sam Weideman and former Don Mitchell Brown, the trio most likely to be combated by Brandon Zerk-Thatcher, Aaron Francis and Patrick Ambrose respectively, whilst high draft pick Kysaiah Pickett will have a tough time against Adam Saad as the main small forwards.
X-Factor Player
Ned Cahill has been talked about as the underage draftee most likely to have an impact in 2020 for Essendon, his endurance and ability to kick goals exciting most bomber fans, so most Dons will be excited to see how he goes against men.
Key stat
Melbourne: Inside 50's conceded. Melbourne's defence was terrible in 2019, they need to arrest that. Best way to not concede goals is to not allow the ball to get up there.
Essendon: Clearances. As of Round 13: 4th in the league. Post round 14: -40 in clearances, bottom 4 in the AFL. Absolutely vital they get this right.
Tip
Hopefully we win but it looks unlikely. Dees by 25.


