Reality Check?

[saintberra]

After reading into a lot of threads, it seems to be a common theme that perhaps we are over-hyping this season/next season.

Do we need a reality check?

I believe that we will be a better team, skills wise, this year but I do not think we will get close to those teams from 1-6. We will be lucky to get 7-8 and I think the more likely scenario is that we will finish near Hawthorn around the 9/10 mark.

I think we will just scrape past Melbourne in round one, but I don't think it will be indicative of how either team will perform this year. Melbourne, barring injury, will probably place higher than us.

Unlike a lot of other teams, we do not have any elite players. Steven is not A+, he is closer to A- (and he's probably the highest-rated player on our list). Our "young guns" have shown signs of becoming "guns" but have not hit it. It's not likely that suddenly all of them will hit their potential this year, nor next year. We may get an elite player this next off-season, but it is no certainty. If we do not, our premiership window will be pushed even a little bit further away - most likely in contention in four years time.

I am always someone that enjoys a glass-half empty life. It means that when things go better than expected I tend to be happier. It's nice to read articles being posted saying "Saints will push the top 4" but lets be honest, we'll be lucky to hit top 8.

Thoughts?

 

[JG22]

Acres is the most overhyped thing about the club

 

[Barrels]

This needed it's own thread?

 

[SaintByTrade]

Just let the people be excited, hard not to be hyped after last year.

 

[Smoke_Me_AKipper]

No harm to hype it up at this stage of the season as long as people don't melt spectacularly when things happen as you set out in your OP.

FWIW I think we\ll end up 7th/8th and with a bit of luck maybe 6th. We need some luck and things such as injuries or contentious umpiring decisions to go our way.

I think we just enjoy the ride rather than worry about the destination

 

[Blended]

Get stuffed, Steven is A+

Can't believe he wasn't All Australian last year

 

[Masquerade]

Poor guy. You're very brave.

Some of the posters here are going to eat you alive. My advice is leave. You can't win now. If you're wrong, you'll never hear the end of it. People will bring it up over and over again, even if you make a good point. If you're right, you can't gloat because it means we've done badly and they'll call you a troll.

You raise very good points though. The success of our season is very much dependant on how quickly Carlisle adapts to the pace of AFL football again, if Nathan Brown really is an upgrade on Keys, if the 2013-2014 draft crop can have breakout years etc. Also, if the inevitable drop of form occurs for Roo or Joey this year, then we're going to need players to cover that too.

On the flipside, we've got more depth than we know what to do with. Steele, Acres, Billings, Dunstan, McCartin, McKenzie, Webster, Gresh, Goddard, Long and Lonie are just some of the kids who've not yet hit their peak. There's a lot of room to improve and there's no reason it can't be this year. Similarly, the group has had an extra year to mesh with our gameplan and our structure looks very sound.

Hopefully you're wrong but it's wait and see, I guess. Good luck and don't be discouraged by the flame war that's about to begin.

 

[saintkildaman]

This needed it's own thread?

I would say it definitely did. It's something that has me concerned of late, only because it's a very realistic possibility that we will be 0-2 to start the season and I can see this board becoming a shit storm. Of course there's going to be optimism, it's the best squad we've had since 2011 but also be wary of your expectations on this young group in such an even competition in 2017.

 

[sverik25]

I think there are definitely a few on here who may have gotten a bit ahead of themselves and when this happens, it's not a great look.

For one thing, while most of us believe we will improve, nothing is a given, and there will be a lot of teams in a similar bracket to us competing for the last few spots in the eight. And while last year was a big step in the right direction, there are still a lot of doubts about the team, such as whether we can finally perform interstate and whether we can better challenge the best teams on a more consistent basis, which we will need to do if we're going to play finals.

Even with our new additions, I think our midfield in particular still looks a little weak unless some of our youngsters take a big step forward, because at the moment we're pretty heavily reliant on Steven.

Personally, I prefer a cautious optimism that we can improve on last year, but with a tougher draw we will need some luck along the way and more of our players in that 50-100 game bracket to stand up.

 

[Barrels]

I would say it definitely did. It's something that has me concerned of late, only because it's a very realistic possibility that we will be 0-2 to start the season and I can see this board becoming a shit storm. Of course there's going to be optimism, it's the best squad we've had since 2011 but also be wary of your expectations on this young group in such an even competition in 2017.

I don't think the premise is faulty, I just think the thread is unnecessary.

 

[ERMAHGERD]

I dont believe we need a lot of elite players to go all the way, although it does help. As they say a champion team is better than a team of champions!
I can see our team becoming that champion team, we have great depth already.
We probably only need a couple of specific players to come into the side to compliment what we already have.
If we get a good start anything can happen!
I really believe we can go as high as 4th this year.
Even last year, if we play Saints footy we can beat anyone on that day! We just need to learn how to be consistent in that area.
My 2 cents worth.

 

[CALL ME SNAKE]

Reality check Pfffft.
Every day i wake up feeling great and i jump in the shower. Then i get out and in the mirror i see my naked wet body and i think to myself
"Holy shit what the f*** happened to my body".

Life! Thats enough of a reality check for me.
When it comes to footy i wanna live in fantasy land.
SAINTS PREMIERS 2017

 

[Persevering Saint]

You mean I have to get my "Saints 2017 Premiers" tattoo removed?

 

[crasha301]

 

[Flandersss]

I would say it definitely did. It's something that has me concerned of late, only because it's a very realistic possibility that we will be 0-2 to start the season and I can see this board becoming a shit storm. Of course there's going to be optimism, it's the best squad we've had since 2011 but also be wary of your expectations on this young group in such an even competition in 2017.

+1.

 

[hayes]

I would say it definitely did. It's something that has me concerned of late, only because it's a very realistic possibility that we will be 0-2 to start the season and I can see this board becoming a shit storm. Of course there's going to be optimism, it's the best squad we've had since 2011 but also be wary of your expectations on this young group in such an even competition in 2017.

There's going to be carry on after losses either way. The entire rebuild was questioned after every loss last year and I can't see that changing!

 

[Glen Buterol]

If we go 0-2 ima lose my shit & start throwing shade at any campaigners in my way

 

[St Neil]

I've been following the Saints for 50 years and have never been as optimistic as I am now.

It's not just short-term but long-term. This year is a stepping stone to sustainable success.

We've got our act together for the first time in decades. Board, administration, football department and team. A critical storm of inter-related dominoes.

Personally, the lid is off. I can see, for the first time, this club inexorably catapulting to success. Look at everything that is happening. It's because we have the best people working for us.

Whether we make the 8 or not won't change that. The long-term trend is happening.

For the record I think we'll win 13 games and finish 7th. And we'll pinch a final as well.

So rejoice and be happy. We are in a rarified era of optimism. Not something that has happened often in the St Kilda Football Club's 144 year history.

 

[Savage Kent]

While I think it is best to approach the new season with cautious optimism, you can't deny that there are many factors both on and off the field to get very excited about:
- The level of depth in our list. Can't think of a time since I started following the saints where we have had the talent base so spread out. During our grand finals years our top end talent was top notch but the bottom 6 not where it should have been. Our bottom 6 has the potential to be the best in the league.
- Just missing out on finals last year by percentage, knocking off the premiers, prelim finalists and coming close against the likes of the hawks. Impressive given how undersized our defenders were. With the additions in the off season and another pre season into our existing youngsters, we should be pushing for a spot in the finals.
- Having 3 1st round picks to play with this year. Gives us so many possibilities. Either go to the draft in what is shaping up as a very good draft, having an excellent hand at the trade table or picking up a gun FA.
- Having one of the most professional administrations, recruiting and development teams during the club's history to help see us through our rise and be in a better position to take advantage of this, compared to past administrations we had during periods of on field success which we did not seem to capitalise on enough.
- On track to reach a record membership tally.
- The move back to Moorabbin.

Exciting times ahead.

 

[Plumber66]

Given the season hasn't started, how the **** do we know either way.

Enjoy the journey ffs and deal with it when the time comes.

 

[NarklesHelmet]

If I want a "reality check" I just read the Herald Sun or listen to SEN. If the journalists even bother talking about us it is to say pretty much what you are saying in the thread because the reality is, besides us fans knowing differently because we live and breathe the Saints, we are flying under the radar of the competition while others are getting the plaudits.

I feel we have every right to be confident in this team because I can honestly say for the first time supporting this club in almost 40 years that we have all boxes ticked:

Stable admin/CEO

Long term strategy and vision that we will stick to

Intelligent list managers and recruiters

A well balanced list age-wise that has a lot of depth

Coaching staff that are a perfect fit for all of the above

If us Saints supporters can't go into the next few seasons feeling bullish and optimistic based on where our club is at we might as well pack it in in my humble opinion.

 

[Mowman]

I've been following the Saints for 50 years and have never been as optimistic as I am now.

It's not just short-term but long-term. This year is a stepping stone to sustainable success.

We've got our act together for the first time in decades. Board, administration, football department and team. A critical storm of inter-related dominoes.

Personally, the lid is off. I can see, for the first time, this club inexorably catapulting to success. Look at everything that is happening. It's because we have the best people working for us.

Whether we make the 8 or not won't change that. The long-term trend is happening.

For the record I think we'll win 13 games and finish 7th. And we'll pinch a final as well.

So rejoice and be happy. We are in a rarified era of optimism. Not something that has happened often in the St Kilda Football Club's 144 year history.

+1 Great post

 

[FlyingSledghamer]

After reading into a lot of threads, it seems to be a common theme that perhaps we are over-hyping this season/next season.

Do we need a reality check?

I believe that we will be a better team, skills wise, this year but I do not think we will get close to those teams from 1-6. We will be lucky to get 7-8 and I think the more likely scenario is that we will finish near Hawthorn around the 9/10 mark.

I think we will just scrape past Melbourne in round one, but I don't think it will be indicative of how either team will perform this year. Melbourne, barring injury, will probably place higher than us.

Unlike a lot of other teams, we do not have any elite players. Steven is not A+, he is closer to A- (and he's probably the highest-rated player on our list). Our "young guns" have shown signs of becoming "guns" but have not hit it. It's not likely that suddenly all of them will hit their potential this year, nor next year. We may get an elite player this next off-season, but it is no certainty. If we do not, our premiership window will be pushed even a little bit further away - most likely in contention in four years time.

I am always someone that enjoys a glass-half empty life. It means that when things go better than expected I tend to be happier. It's nice to read articles being posted saying "Saints will push the top 4" but lets be honest, we'll be lucky to hit top 8.

Thoughts?

 

[Persevering Saint]

Starts a thread about keeping a lid on it.

All replies have the lid well and truly off.

 

[aussierulesrules]

We're rising with a bullet (18th to 9th in two years, twice as many wins in 2016 as in 2015) and have 4 new potential additions who could all add to/improve our best 22 (not to mention Freeman, or even Long, who could take it to as many as 6) and in particular address the most glaring weaknesses we had last year (height in defence and midfield quality/depth), which means we also have the big likelihood of having a better structure.

It also enables us to play more the way we really want to (being able to press up closer to goal, to try and turn the ball over in the midfield, rather than pressing further back to try and protect our undersized backline and thus turning the ball over more in the backline- which gives the opposition more of a chance to lock it into their forwardline). We obviously didn't want to play that way last year, but felt we had to, as we were so vulnerable down back with the likes of Dempster, Fisher and Gilbo playing key defence. They can now go back to the roles they are much better suited to.

As a group we're also another year more experienced and more used to the way Richo wants us to play and the young ones in particular are more likely to be able to apply the pressure and defensive running that Richo wants for longer in games, due to their greater fitness. They might have been able to do it for a half last year, this year perhaps 3/4.

Then there are all the young ones who are a good chance of being this year's versions of Ross, Membrey, Hickey, Weller and Geary last year and Armo and Bruce the year before. Not to mention Armo having had a full preseason this time and as such being an excellent chance of getting back to his dominant best of 2015.

Then there's the depth that is way better than it has been since at least 2005, if not ever. That gives us not only a better chance for covering for any injuries we do get, but it also creates fantastic competition for spots, which is extremely healthy and will keep everyone on their toes and knowing that they need to perform week in, week out, if they want to play regular senior footy.

Of course plenty could happen like injuries or gameplans not working, but there are a hell of lot of reasons I see to be optimistic, so as someone else said, if we're not going to get excited now, when will we!? We just need to relax and enjoy the ride and not worry so much! There's nothing wrong with believing in yourself (or your footy team) and backing yourself (them) in and in fact you probably won't get too far if you don't.