Sherriff Incorporated
Club Legend
- Nov 9, 2023
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No oner reads that rubbish paper anymore anyway.
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Toast Reasons for Optimism
- Thread starter poshman
- Start date
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- Aug 20, 2010
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The stage is set for a fairytale finish. Fairytales do not always come true but, what if? The ingredients are all there:
- Retiring club champion
- Rising star young player (think of Daicos, Rioli, Joel Selwood)
- Star players on every line
- Good record in close games against top opposition
- Game style that should stack up in finals
- Healthy list
- Best player in the comp returning from injury
- A team from Perth has never done is from outside the top 4
- We would need to win three away games in a row
- We're too flaky and prone to dockery
- We're a young list
- We don't have the right coach
- Our losses all relate to fatigue. Geelong game played in over 35 degree heat. Melbourne game we made the mistake of staying on the road after Gather Round, didn't work, St Kilda game played after a gruelling start where all previous games were played in over 30 degree heat, should have beaten Sydney but inexperience in key moments cost the game, should have beaten Collingwood but didn't take advantage of huge I50 advantage, second lost to Sydney we ran into them just as they had a form up tick, and loss to Brisbane we were playing our third game in 12 days. Every time this team has played in a well rested state they have performed well.
- There is no standout team. Adelaide are not better than Fremantle. Who won this match up earlier this season? Geelong have had the cushiest of fixtures possible. Is it plausible to have a health reset with this week off, beat Gold Coast at home, defeat Geelong at the G, then take on Adelaide or Collingwood in a Prelim?
- We have Bolton, the September specialist.
Agree with all of the above. The boys will be hungry to push themselves in these finals after what it took to get there. I'm getting a sense of anything's possible right now, it feels like the shackles have been released with that Bulldogs win. Having just been burnt by Brisbane is probably a blessing in disguise to a degree. It'll be a stark reminder if we meet again.
Now hopefully take care of the Suns then back into underdog mode away. A win over Brisbane or Geelong would be monumental but not an entirely crazy possibility. But probably shouldn't get ahead of what's up next, the Suns won't be pushovers.
Now hopefully take care of the Suns then back into underdog mode away. A win over Brisbane or Geelong would be monumental but not an entirely crazy possibility. But probably shouldn't get ahead of what's up next, the Suns won't be pushovers.
Just gonna have my 5c here.
If we get over Gold Coast - and this is the Optimism thread, so let's go with WHEN we get over Gold Coast - the next game will be tough but entirely gettable.
We have a pretty good recent record against Geelong in Victoria, other than the stinkfest at the start of this year, and their fans are already bleating that they deserve to have the game in Geelong, which should suit us slightly better than the MCG.
If it's Brisbane, I have to stretch a bit harder, but Brisbane have not been a sure thing at home all year, and going in as underdogs and away from the spotlight in Brisbane will suit the mentality of the team I reckon. Yes, we've had shocking games against both Geelong and Brisbane this year, but St Kilda Mk II vs St Kilda Mk I shows that we might have a team that's genuinely learning from their mistakes and we can turn around a poor performance.
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rubydoomsday
Team Captain
hard agree.
head says we should be getting it done by 4 goals or so, based on: recent form, changes to our game, personnel back in etc
heart is way less certain, beholden as it is in the absence of logic and reason to 'vibes' and how much 'ticker' we've recently shown.
f you, heart
or wait, maybe i have that backwards. heart says we do it by 4 goals.
then head undermines it with maths, facts, Dockery PTSD.
f you, head
chaosball32
All Australian
- May 1, 2024
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The stage is set for a fairytale finish. Fairytales do not always come true but, what if? The ingredients are all there:
Many focus on why we can't win it:
- Retiring club champion
- Rising star young player (think of Daicos, Rioli, Joel Selwood)
- Star players on every line
- Good record in close games against top opposition
- Game style that should stack up in finals
- Healthy list
- Best player in the comp returning from injury
Consider these thoughts:
- A team from Perth has never done is from outside the top 4
- We would need to win three away games in a row
- We're too flaky and prone to dockery
- We're a young list
- We don't have the right coach
It may not happen. But it could.
- Our losses all relate to fatigue. Geelong game played in over 35 degree heat. Melbourne game we made the mistake of staying on the road after Gather Round, didn't work, St Kilda game played after a gruelling start where all previous games were played in over 30 degree heat, should have beaten Sydney but inexperience in key moments cost the game, should have beaten Collingwood but didn't take advantage of huge I50 advantage, second lost to Sydney we ran into them just as they had a form up tick, and loss to Brisbane we were playing our third game in 12 days. Every time this team has played in a well rested state they have performed well.
- There is no standout team. Adelaide are not better than Fremantle. Who won this match up earlier this season? Geelong have had the cushiest of fixtures possible. Is it plausible to have a health reset with this week off, beat Gold Coast at home, defeat Geelong at the G, then take on Adelaide or Collingwood in a Prelim?
- We have Bolton, the September specialist.
To add to all that, the team we fielded last week was on average older then 8 premiership teams of the last 20 years:
- Freo R24 2025: 25y 307d
- Sydney GF 2005: 25y 273d
- Geelong GF 2007: 25y 179d
- West Coast GF 2006: 25y 83d
- Richmond GF 2017: 25y 43d
- Melbourne GF 2021: 24y 306d
- Hawthorn GF 2008: 24y 218d
- Bulldogs GF 2016: 24y 144d
- Collingwood GF 2010: 24y 57d
We’ve known all season that our best can match it with just about anyone and it was just about getting to September. Well we’re here now and although we have to do it the hard way from outside the top 4, we beat GC this weekend and I’d give us a solid chance in a semi against Geelong at the G (I think Brisbane will beat them on Friday) and from there anything can happen.
Why not us?
The Bullldogs, Richmond and Melbourne teams are comparable for finals experience too. I think the others are too far back though as there has been advances in sports science and the average age has trended up. We have a very balanced team though and do not rely on our older players so should be set to compete for an extended period.
Lets hope it all comes together.
Good work, hopefully that puts the bs argument we are too young to bed.
Wrong thread for it but I'd be curious to see how our current 22 is stacking up on average games played as well as the proportion of B22 players in each ~ 3 year age bracket. The distribution of age and experience is probably more important than just reducing it down to a mean.
Agree with the general sentiment though. There's no better time than now.
Agree with the general sentiment though. There's no better time than now.
Cam Payne
Club Legend
With our record this year against teams outside the eight, it's lucky we're playing a side in the eight this week.
It’s not quite what you’re after, but there is some related info in the second part of this column which you might find interesting. You can click across on each of the graphics to get other categories / teams.
Expected Score rankings, minutes played by age, favourite games: The Notebook, Round 24
It’s time for the final home and away season Notebook!
theshinboner.com
- Oct 17, 2010
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Was thinking that. Finally get a match-up we're looking for ... with more to come.
You make a great point about statistics. Context is everything and the data needs to some level of analysis than just pulling out stats.
If we win this week AND next week then I'll accept nothing less than ultimate glory this season.
Otherwise sack Longmuir.
yup...two wins and Im driving EASTwards!
Cam Payne
Club Legend
Sack him once we qualify for the GF. The dead coach bounce will terrify our opponent.
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rubydoomsday
Team Captain
Switta back in for the Prelim
- Aug 20, 2010
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Semi...
how is that affected by losing switta (28) and wagner (28) this week?
but it does raise a good point, JLo has been pushing towards age and experience as we have headed towards finals. In terms of INS it puts Cooper and Wombat as unlikelys I would think.
rubydoomsday
Team Captain
look, i'm excited too but TMI
Can you do your sums again?