Player Watch Reilly O'Brien

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1970crow said:
Our issue, not just with ROB and ignoring the injury thing, is that we get an ok piece in the 22 and think that the job is done. We don't identify the areas where we need to move past ok to improve. Our midfield triumvirate is doing an ok job of getting their hands on the ball enough, averaging 82.4 disposals between them this year. Hey, that's ok, no need to seek improvement there. Where can we improve? It's obviously 2 or 3 of the spots in the forward line that need looking at and sometimes playing 2 KPDs instead of one. Everything else is basically locked in for the year. And to keep the continuity credits increasing, these locked in pieces will get selected regardless of injury or form. Whatever has changed under Nicks, it's certainly not selection philosophy when there's an actual decision to make. Coin toss Mackay and Hamill, nope, no need, Mackay evey time if it's between those 2. Sloane clearly struggling to impact the midfield battle anywhere near enough, do we have a look at him up forward and get a better look at other players in the stoppage rotation? Don't be stupid, why would we do that?

This is meant to be a rebuild and yet we continue to make the exact opposite decision every time we are presented an opportunity to experience (theoretically) a small amount of extra pain in favour of a bit of extra development for our future. How much worse would the result have been if Mackay wasn't selected and Schoey, Pedlar, Berry and even McHenry covered most of Sloane's midfield time and Sloane played a bit up forward. If it would have even been worse, it wouldn't have been that much worse and we'd have gotten a better look at a couple of the kids in the role they played their junior football in. I can handle getting walloped, I expect it and I still don't reckon a 10 goal loss away to the Dons is that bad, given where we are. But to do it without a development dividend apart from adding to player's game tallies, is not how a good rebuild would look.
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Yup, it's meant to be a rebuild and we've been continuously been playing 13-14 sub 50 gamers, which is a league high. We've been doing the short term pain whether you want to acknowledge it or not. After all, our last two off-season has seen us cut the majority of our senior group. It's going to repeat this off-season too, seeing Crouch, Kelly, Talia, Mackay and Lynch all out of contract, and we're clearly going to be cutting into that considering Parnell, O'Connor and Gollant have earned a reprieve. I also do not think it's that surprising we've been rather rigid this year. We have been dealing with a squad that most of the players in our best 22 are <1 season worth of games into their career. There is a lot of value into pumping continuity into a kid when they're finding their feet at an AFL level, especially if they didn't get much, if any game time last year (which is a fair number of our prospects, seeing we didn't have a reserves side last year).

If we're talking about the Dons game, Schoenberg spent a large portion in the midfield (spent time going head to head with Parish), Thilthorpe as a key forward, Sholl as a winger, Butts as a defender, Jones as a mid-defender, Hamill likewise, McHenry as a half forward, Murray as a key defender etc. For the most part we were playing kids where their long term future lies, or they're rebuilding their game. The only two (well... it might be four, but Jones and Hamill really shouldn't be moved around at this point) we really didn't is Pedlar who is certainly a case of just giving a taster of AFL in the back end of the season (in terms of fitness, Pedlar really doesn't have any business being in an AFL squad at the moment, though we should be persisting with him), and Berry who has played close to every game without a U/18 season (which is a hell of an effort in its own right, seeing he lost a year of development), though playing him as a third tall was just dumb when Gollant was in the reserves.


We probably got more out of that then you're willing to admit, seeing Murray, Jones and Schoenberg showed a fair bit. I also don't think it's too bad for our current situation, seeing it was an away game with young and very inexperienced squad (clocking in at 64.9 games, whereas we're usually around 72-80 games), and it was just a game we weren't up for the fight, which so far has been pretty limited this year. Just highlighted that we're truly not ready for the world without Tex just yet, and we need another key forward prospect. The only sour note was the 2.9 instead of 5.6, which becomes a bit more acceptable.
 
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Drugs Are Bad Mackay? said:
Because they'll cost the money plus our first draft pick minimum
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I was more thinking at the end of contracts next year. We would be close to the bottom of the ladder. We could do a Hately. If it’s just a matter of money and big $$ (Grundy level) then unlikely any club takes them before us.

Don’t particularly like to give any of those names big $$$. But would prefer any of them to Grundy.
 
Drugs Are Bad Mackay? said:
Has Nicks ever been asked in a press conference what ROB is doing during F50 boundary throw ins?

He stands 10-15m from the ruck contest near the 50m arc while either Tex or Thilthorpe takes the hitout. He's not at the contest or a kick behind play. Completely in no man's land

1970crow raised it earlier in the season and ROB is still doing it

If our thinking is "Is there a spot on the ground where you can be no value whatsoever"? then we've nailed it

Imagine getting Pick 2 (or worse, 1) and having to explain that set up to the AFL Commission. I hope we've got a story sorted out
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We are setting rob up there in case rob takes it out of the ruck and scrub kicks it the wrong way.
 

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Santoz said:
Don't forget the gems you can find in the Rookie Draft either :thumbsu:
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Indeed. 2016
Bicks said:
Tom had a good year in the VFL for the Roosters but if I was him I'd get a gig with one of the SA teams, the Roosters being based in Ballarat don't get a lot of VFL coverage compared with the Melbourne based teams. The guy from the Roosters I'd be looking to rookie would be big youngster Rowan Marshall 200+cm Ruck/KPP, still only 20 years old, mobile and a beautiful kick. Invited to the State Combine so there is interest from AFL clubs.
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Santoz said:
Don't forget the gems you can find in the Rookie Draft either :thumbsu:
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Bicks said:
Knightmare's caught onto a player I've had time for for several seasons now in big local lad Rowan Marshall,thought he was worth a shot in his draft year, seems he's grown 3 or 4 cms too since his draft year, seriously good overhead, mobile and a beautiful kick for a tall. Way better than Luke Lowden and Paul Hunter and a good back up for our KPP's having played both CHF and CHB at a good standard as well as Ruck in the TAC Comp and VFL. Posted some footage a few pages back,

http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/17829343/knightmare-afl-draft-wrap-best-state-league-prospects
Knightmare's piece:
Firmly in the mix to be selected in the national draft is developing North Ballarat ruckman Rowan Marshall. The 203cm big man, who will turn 21 in November, has shown significant growth in the VFL this season and has shown ability both through the ruck and up forward. His tackling this season has proven particularly impressive along with his mobility and involvement around the ground.
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Santoz said:
Don't forget the gems you can find in the Rookie Draft either :thumbsu:
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Bicks said:
We're talking Rowan Marshall Wayne's-World , he is an elite overhead mark and a beautiful kick, how he never at least got a rookie spot in his draft year was a surprise to me, Since then he's had two good years in the VFL for the Ballarat Roosters, last year played CHF/Ruck this year CHB/Ruck. 199cm and very mobile, strong overhead and a beautiful kick. Don't take my word for it, take a look at video footage I've posted on the previous page, especially his comprehensive AFL video from his draft year at this link. Guarantee you'll like what you see, and I know he tested at the State Combine again last week so there is interest...http://www.afl.com.au/video/2014-09-16/draft-prospect-rowan-marshall
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bigman said:
Time for Strauchnie to help out rob. I would be looking at Briggs from GWS or the young Ballarat boy playing at freo in the new year
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Or do something novel and draft a youngster to develop, I saw Geelong Falcons ruck Toby Conway live earlier this year when they played the Rebels at C.T Brown Reserve Wendouree and was mightily impressed and the live streams I've watched since he looks my pick of the Rucks in this year's draft.
Certainly be worth a shot with a mid-late pick and steal if still there for the rookie draft.

Next year there look to be 2 really outstanding Ruck prospects WA's Alex Condon and SA's Will Verrall, both very highly athletic which I think is big plus in the modern day Ruckman. They went head to head in the recent U17's game and I thought Condon clearly got the better of Verrall on that occasion but both look super prospects this far out from next year's draft.
 
Mutineer said:
Or do something novel and draft a youngster to develop, I saw Geelong Falcons ruck Toby Conway live earlier this year when they played the Rebels at C.T Brown Reserve Wendouree and was mightily impressed and the live streams I've watched since he looks my pick of the Rucks in this year's draft.
Certainly be worth a shot with a mid-late pick and steal if still there for the rookie draft.

Next year there look to be 2 really outstanding Ruck prospects WA's Alex Condon and SA's Will Verrall, both very highly athletic which I think is big plus in the modern day Ruckman. They went head to head in the recent U17's game and I thought Condon clearly got the better of Verrall on that occasion but both look super prospects this far out from next year's draft.
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We could do both. We have been incredibly lucky this year rob has not gone down injured. Get in one of these rucks and train up the younger Verrall etc for two or three years further down the track
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Golumless said:
Yup, it's meant to be a rebuild and we've been continuously been playing 13-14 sub 50 gamers, which is a league high. We've been doing the short term pain whether you want to acknowledge it or not. After all, our last two off-season has seen us cut the majority of our senior group. It's going to repeat this off-season too, seeing Crouch, Kelly, Talia, Mackay and Lynch all out of contract, and we're clearly going to be cutting into that considering Parnell, O'Connor and Gollant have earned a reprieve. I also do not think it's that surprising we've been rather rigid this year. We have been dealing with a squad that most of the players in our best 22 are <1 season worth of games into their career. There is a lot of value into pumping continuity into a kid when they're finding their feet at an AFL level, especially if they didn't get much, if any game time last year (which is a fair number of our prospects, seeing we didn't have a reserves side last year).

If we're talking about the Dons game, Schoenberg spent a large portion in the midfield (spent time going head to head with Parish), Thilthorpe as a key forward, Sholl as a winger, Butts as a defender, Jones as a mid-defender, Hamill likewise, McHenry as a half forward, Murray as a key defender etc. For the most part we were playing kids where their long term future lies, or they're rebuilding their game. The only two (well... it might be four, but Jones and Hamill really shouldn't be moved around at this point) we really didn't is Pedlar who is certainly a case of just giving a taster of AFL in the back end of the season (in terms of fitness, Pedlar really doesn't have any business being in an AFL squad at the moment, though we should be persisting with him), and Berry who has played close to every game without a U/18 season (which is a hell of an effort in its own right, seeing he lost a year of development), though playing him as a third tall was just dumb when Gollant was in the reserves.


We probably got more out of that then you're willing to admit, seeing Murray, Jones and Schoenberg showed a fair bit. I also don't think it's too bad for our current situation, seeing it was an away game with young and very inexperienced squad (clocking in at 64.9 games, whereas we're usually around 72-80 games), and it was just a game we weren't up for the fight, which so far has been pretty limited this year. Just highlighted that we're truly not ready for the world without Tex just yet, and we need another key forward prospect. The only sour note was the 2.9 instead of 5.6, which becomes a bit more acceptable.
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Nup, apart from Murphy and Lynch's 2 tune ups after lengthy injuries, we haven't made a single selection decision that has prioritised the future over the present. Name 1, just 1 time we left a senior player in the 2s so a kid could play.
 

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bigman said:
Time for Strauchnie to help out rob. I would be looking at Briggs from GWS or the young Ballarat boy playing at freo in the new year
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Strachany is a beautiful kick of the footy for a ruck & that's valued pretty highly around these parts in scouting reports I'm told :thumbsu:

How good was that laser he put onto the tit of the FF a month back through traffic! 81% disposal efficiency is the best in the SANFL for rucks.

Would help out ROB immensely.
 
1970crow said:
Nup, apart from Murphy and Lynch's 2 tune ups after lengthy injuries, we haven't made a single selection decision that has prioritised the future over the present. Name 1, just 1 time we left a senior player in the 2s so a kid could play.
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I could have sworn that you initially said that Lynch would be brought straight into the AFL.
Then….he will absolutely be brought in to play against Essendon.
After two strong perfermances in the Twos, I guess you will be right sooner or later.

#howlingatthemoon.
 
ROB is our clear #1 ruckman who is signed to a long-term contract and after rounds is ranked #5 in the AFL for hit-outs in a poor team that is 16th on the ladder - so surely he is the least of our problems and we should talk about something else...I beg to differ.

At this stage ROB's clear, possibly only, strength as an AFL ruckman is staying on the park. He's played all 17 matches with TOG% of 90% (what you may term 15.3 full match equivalents [FMEs]) which along with Max Gawn (15.5 FME) and Todd Goldstein (15.6 FME) is head and shoulders above every other ruckman in the comp. Furthermore ROB has attended over 100 more ruck contests this season (1162) than the next highest player (Big O with 1053).
So give ROB full credit for effort and durability in being out there - even if he is/was as many suspect playing injured at various stages.

But how effective has he been as a ruckman in all that TOG? Well despite having many more opportunities (ruck contests) than any other ruckman he only ranks 6th in the league for hit-outs to advantage. Why is that? Well firstly his win % (among the top 25 for hit-outs) is down at 16th winning only 42.1% of contests as compared to Max Gawn at 59.7% and others (Ryder, Grundy, Darcy, Naitanui) in the mid to high 50s. [Narrator: Might occasionally jumping off the ground help?] Even worse though, when he does win the tap it only goes to advantage a paltry 28% of the time which ranks him down at 19th and miles behind the elite level of Naitanui (38.8%) and behind virtually every other first ruck in the comp (aside from Suns fill-in Chris Burgess and Cats' utility duo Stanley & Blicavs).
So if you view every ruck contest as an opportunity to kickstart a scoring chain with a hit-out to advantage then we're squandering that opportunity on ROB who gets a HOA only 11.8% of contests compared to the average of the ten best ruckmen who do it 17% of the time. Put another way ROB costs as a HOA every single quarter he's out there.

But, you say, he's a competitive beast who makes up for what he lacks in ruck output with impact around the ground. Wrong again. If you look at (the admittedly flawed metric of) AFL fantasy points and deduct points for hit-outs to see what other, non-ruck, points are left then (again adjusted for TOG) ROB is an also-ran at only 20th best among his peers. The best all-around players in the ruck (Grundy, Gawn plus Rowan Marshall) generate more than 50% greater contribution than ROB.
It's only the other ruck 'dinosaurs' like Goldstein and Mumford who sit alongside ROB for lack of production.

To be fair perhaps the only thing that can be said in his defence is that we don't suffer any meaningful hit-out or clearance differential to our opponents across the season. So perhaps our strategy is to have ROB out there to basically nullify the opposition which is hardly a lofty ambition.

Now despite everything I've written here I do like the bloke as he seems like a nice bloke who's no trouble around the club and he's gives everything he's got but surely it's come time to experiment a bit more with this position as we go through our rebuild. Try Kieren Strachan as first ruck for a few weeks and give ROB a rest...try the two of them in tandem to see what happens. Draft a young, high potential ruckman who we can nurture for a few years with at least the hope of having a high performer in the role in the distant future.

But surely the numbers don't lie, ROB is simply not the quality of player to lead us to a premiership.
 
Bob Neil said:
ROB is our clear #1 ruckman who is signed to a long-term contract and after rounds is ranked #5 in the AFL for hit-outs in a poor team that is 16th on the ladder - so surely he is the least of our problems and we should talk about something else...I beg to differ.

At this stage ROB's clear, possibly only, strength as an AFL ruckman is staying on the park. He's played all 17 matches with TOG% of 90% (what you may term 15.3 full match equivalents [FMEs]) which along with Max Gawn (15.5 FME) and Todd Goldstein (15.6 FME) is head and shoulders above every other ruckman in the comp. Furthermore ROB has attended over 100 more ruck contests this season (1162) than the next highest player (Big O with 1053).
So give ROB full credit for effort and durability in being out there - even if he is/was as many suspect playing injured at various stages.

But how effective has he been as a ruckman in all that TOG? Well despite having many more opportunities (ruck contests) than any other ruckman he only ranks 6th in the league for hit-outs to advantage. Why is that? Well firstly his win % (among the top 25 for hit-outs) is down at 16th winning only 42.1% of contests as compared to Max Gawn at 59.7% and others (Ryder, Grundy, Darcy, Naitanui) in the mid to high 50s. [Narrator: Might occasionally jumping off the ground help?] Even worse though, when he does win the tap it only goes to advantage a paltry 28% of the time which ranks him down at 19th and miles behind the elite level of Naitanui (38.8%) and behind virtually every other first ruck in the comp (aside from Suns fill-in Chris Burgess and Cats' utility duo Stanley & Blicavs).
So if you view every ruck contest as an opportunity to kickstart a scoring chain with a hit-out to advantage then we're squandering that opportunity on ROB who gets a HOA only 11.8% of contests compared to the average of the ten best ruckmen who do it 17% of the time. Put another way ROB costs as a HOA every single quarter he's out there.

But, you say, he's a competitive beast who makes up for what he lacks in ruck output with impact around the ground. Wrong again. If you look at (the admittedly flawed metric of) AFL fantasy points and deduct points for hit-outs to see what other, non-ruck, points are left then (again adjusted for TOG) ROB is an also-ran at only 20th best among his peers. The best all-around players in the ruck (Grundy, Gawn plus Rowan Marshall) generate more than 50% greater contribution than ROB.
It's only the other ruck 'dinosaurs' like Goldstein and Mumford who sit alongside ROB for lack of production.

To be fair perhaps the only thing that can be said in his defence is that we don't suffer any meaningful hit-out or clearance differential to our opponents across the season. So perhaps our strategy is to have ROB out there to basically nullify the opposition which is hardly a lofty ambition.

Now despite everything I've written here I do like the bloke as he seems like a nice bloke who's no trouble around the club and he's gives everything he's got but surely it's come time to experiment a bit more with this position as we go through our rebuild. Try Kieren Strachan as first ruck for a few weeks and give ROB a rest...try the two of them in tandem to see what happens. Draft a young, high potential ruckman who we can nurture for a few years with at least the hope of having a high performer in the role in the distant future.

But surely the numbers don't lie, ROB is simply not the quality of player to lead us to a premiership.
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Probably goes 1st round - Mac Andrew

MA.jpg

Probably goes mid -late draft - Toby Conway.

toby.jpg
 
" but surely it's come time to experiment a bit more with this position as we go through our rebuild. Try Kieren Strachan as first ruck for a few weeks and give ROB a rest...try the two of them in tandem to see what happens."

It might be me, but playing Strachan surely isn't the answer. Do we want to go down the track of bringing in a 25yo rookie ruck at this point in our development? Let's just get a ruck in the draft and put some games into him.
 
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