Player Watch Reilly O'Brien

Remove this Banner Ad

Reader mode
Thetrader15 said:
" but surely it's come time to experiment a bit more with this position as we go through our rebuild. Try Kieren Strachan as first ruck for a few weeks and give ROB a rest...try the two of them in tandem to see what happens."

It might be me, but playing Strachan surely isn't the answer. Do we want to go down the track of bringing in a 25yo rookie ruck at this point in our development? Let's just get a ruck in the draft and put some games into him.
Click to expand...
Strachan wouldn't be picked for development, it would be to make sure O'Brien knows that he isn't welded to his position in the side regardless of form.

The extremely unlikely event that it turns out Strachan is actually ready to go as a top tier AFL ruck can be dealt with after the fact.
 
I think the analysis is pretty spot on TBH. We rarely get clean ball out of the centre even when he wins the tap, as it's always brought down to his feet in most cases, then there's a scrap for the ball. I'd love to get someone like Tim English back, who has some pretty decent skills besides his ruck work, and is more athletic. (Or we could go down the Carlton path on the weekend and play a 6'2" ruck for a period of time). Our midfield are bad enough already without having a ruckman who can't put it to their advantage.
 
Some interesting info here - thanks for posting it.

Bob Neil said:
But how effective has he been as a ruckman in all that TOG? Well despite having many more opportunities (ruck contests) than any other ruckman he only ranks 6th in the league for hit-outs to advantage. Why is that? Well firstly his win % (among the top 25 for hit-outs) is down at 16th winning only 42.1% of contests as compared to Max Gawn at 59.7% and others (Ryder, Grundy, Darcy, Naitanui) in the mid to high 50s. [Narrator: Might occasionally jumping off the ground help?] Even worse though, when he does win the tap it only goes to advantage a paltry 28% of the time which ranks him down at 19th and miles behind the elite level of Naitanui (38.8%) and behind virtually every other first ruck in the comp (aside from Suns fill-in Chris Burgess and Cats' utility duo Stanley & Blicavs).
So if you view every ruck contest as an opportunity to kickstart a scoring chain with a hit-out to advantage then we're squandering that opportunity on ROB who gets a HOA only 11.8% of contests compared to the average of the ten best ruckmen who do it 17% of the time. Put another way ROB costs as a HOA every single quarter he's out there.
Click to expand...


What would be really interesting is the breakdown of win% and HOA between centre bounces, throw ins and round the ground ball ups. They have markedly different ruck craft, and also significantly different ground level structures. Centre bounces can reward an athletic leaper like Nic Nat, whereas the round the ground stuff relies more on positioning and strength. I'd postulate (without evidence) that a clean centre clearance would lead to a score more often than a stoppage clearance - but there tend to be more of the latter. We were +3 (24-21) in stoppage clearances on Sunday but -6 (8-14) in the middle, but the centre bounces are more aesthetic (and so more memorable).

Bob Neil said:
To be fair perhaps the only thing that can be said in his defence is that we don't suffer any meaningful hit-out or clearance differential to our opponents across the season. So perhaps our strategy is to have ROB out there to basically nullify the opposition which is hardly a lofty ambition.
Click to expand...

Hardly lofty, I'd agree - but the list of premiership ruckmen is full of nulliflers over the past decade or so.

Bob Neil said:
Now despite everything I've written here I do like the bloke as he seems like a nice bloke who's no trouble around the club and he's gives everything he's got but surely it's come time to experiment a bit more with this position as we go through our rebuild. Try Kieren Strachan as first ruck for a few weeks and give ROB a rest...try the two of them in tandem to see what happens. Draft a young, high potential ruckman who we can nurture for a few years with at least the hope of having a high performer in the role in the distant future.

But surely the numbers don't lie, ROB is simply not the quality of player to lead us to a premiership.
Click to expand...

But also not the first issue to resolve. Nankervis joined Richmond at the end of 2016 for pick 46. There is always a veteran ruckman available for a late pick.
 

Log in to remove this ad.

It's like when we had Ivan Maric as ruckman. He was an average, slow lumbering ruckman like ROB who battled hard and admirably. But the moment we got Sauce in the team our midfield started functioning much better.

The problem this time around is that if we replaced ROB, his replacement would be hitting it down to a D grade midfield and it would be hard to tell the difference.

I'm still of the opinion we should be developing a couple of young ruck prospects and not tie ourselves to ROB for his career. We can do much better.

On SM-A205YN using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
Weird that someone with a statistical aptitude would not recognise that hitouts are the most insignificant stat when it comes to correlation with team margin. Hitouts to advantage are very minorly correlated with team margin. You're a dinosaur yourself if you think that's still important.

I agree with the premise that ROB is a pretty awful tap ruckman and he's just there for the contests not for any real advantage, but comparing hitouts is one of the last ways that we should be measuring a ruckman not the first. The stuff they do around the ground is much much much more important, namely Contested Marks or Intercept Marks. ROB does both on a good day. Being athletic enough to cover the ground like a midfielder and having an elite ball-take in marking contests and ground ball contests are the two most important attributes for a ruckman to have. He's elite for endurance, pretty average for general athleticism, very very good for the aerial ball take and pretty bad for the ground ball take. It's why he's a slightly above average ruckman, not a generational one like Nic Nat.

What I will say is that when he's not marking around the ground or covering the ground as well is when we can really see his flaws as a player.
 
Crows 2024 Premiers said:
Weird that someone with a statistical aptitude would not recognise that hitouts are the most insignificant stat when it comes to correlation with team margin. Hitouts to advantage are very minorly correlated with team margin. You're a dinosaur yourself if you think that's still important.

I agree with the premise that ROB is a pretty awful tap ruckman and he's just there for the contests not for any real advantage, but comparing hitouts is one of the last ways that we should be measuring a ruckman not the first. The stuff they do around the ground is much much much more important, namely Contested Marks or Intercept Marks. ROB does both on a good day. Being athletic enough to cover the ground like a midfielder and having an elite ball-take in marking contests and ground ball contests are the two most important attributes for a ruckman to have. He's elite for endurance, pretty average for general athleticism, very very good for the aerial ball take and pretty bad for the ground ball take. It's why he's a slightly above average ruckman, not a generational one like Nic Nat.

What I will say is that when he's not marking around the ground or covering the ground as well is when we can really see his flaws as a player.
Click to expand...

Well go look at the figures on contested marks and intercept marks compared to other ruckman.

You can't say he's good at these things without any evidence and expect us to take your word for it.
 
Crows 2024 Premiers said:
Weird that someone with a statistical aptitude would not recognise that hitouts are the most insignificant stat when it comes to correlation with team margin. Hitouts to advantage are very minorly correlated with team margin. You're a dinosaur yourself if you think that's still important.

I agree with the premise that ROB is a pretty awful tap ruckman and he's just there for the contests not for any real advantage, but comparing hitouts is one of the last ways that we should be measuring a ruckman not the first. The stuff they do around the ground is much much much more important, namely Contested Marks or Intercept Marks. ROB does both on a good day. Being athletic enough to cover the ground like a midfielder and having an elite ball-take in marking contests and ground ball contests are the two most important attributes for a ruckman to have. He's elite for endurance, pretty average for general athleticism, very very good for the aerial ball take and pretty bad for the ground ball take. It's why he's a slightly above average ruckman, not a generational one like Nic Nat.

What I will say is that when he's not marking around the ground or covering the ground as well is when we can really see his flaws as a player.
Click to expand...
Didn't look to bloody insignificant against the Weagles on the weekend with the Eagles mids on the move at centre ball ups knowing the odds were Nic Nat was going to put it down there throat. A couple of those palm downs to Yeo were poetry in motion.
 
Thetrader15 said:
" but surely it's come time to experiment a bit more with this position as we go through our rebuild. Try Kieren Strachan as first ruck for a few weeks and give ROB a rest...try the two of them in tandem to see what happens."

It might be me, but playing Strachan surely isn't the answer. Do we want to go down the track of bringing in a 25yo rookie ruck at this point in our development? Let's just get a ruck in the draft and put some games into him.
Click to expand...
His stats in the SANFL would suggest he deserves an opportunity and what have we got to lose.
 
Crows 2024 Premiers said:
Weird that someone with a statistical aptitude would not recognise that hitouts are the most insignificant stat when it comes to correlation with team margin. Hitouts to advantage are very minorly correlated with team margin. You're a dinosaur yourself if you think that's still important.
Click to expand...

If I talked only about raw hit-outs I’d say you have a point Crows 2024 Premiers but I discussed hit-outs to advantage and his other ‘non-tapwork’ impact which are both reasonable metrics to assess him against and more predictive of our team success.

I did read a longer analysis article elsewhere which made a similar argument and which claimed that points from stoppage differential was one of the best indicators (75% of the time the team which wins that also wins the match) but I don’t have a CD subscription so this is the info I could use.

Finally even if we agree that winning taps is not a major KPI we should surely aim to get the most out of the ruckman we have and I’m not convinced ROB is giving us that.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Bob Neil said:
ROB is our clear #1 ruckman who is signed to a long-term contract and after rounds is ranked #5 in the AFL for hit-outs in a poor team that is 16th on the ladder - so surely he is the least of our problems and we should talk about something else...I beg to differ.

At this stage ROB's clear, possibly only, strength as an AFL ruckman is staying on the park. He's played all 17 matches with TOG% of 90% (what you may term 15.3 full match equivalents [FMEs]) which along with Max Gawn (15.5 FME) and Todd Goldstein (15.6 FME) is head and shoulders above every other ruckman in the comp. Furthermore ROB has attended over 100 more ruck contests this season (1162) than the next highest player (Big O with 1053).
So give ROB full credit for effort and durability in being out there - even if he is/was as many suspect playing injured at various stages.

But how effective has he been as a ruckman in all that TOG? Well despite having many more opportunities (ruck contests) than any other ruckman he only ranks 6th in the league for hit-outs to advantage. Why is that? Well firstly his win % (among the top 25 for hit-outs) is down at 16th winning only 42.1% of contests as compared to Max Gawn at 59.7% and others (Ryder, Grundy, Darcy, Naitanui) in the mid to high 50s. [Narrator: Might occasionally jumping off the ground help?] Even worse though, when he does win the tap it only goes to advantage a paltry 28% of the time which ranks him down at 19th and miles behind the elite level of Naitanui (38.8%) and behind virtually every other first ruck in the comp (aside from Suns fill-in Chris Burgess and Cats' utility duo Stanley & Blicavs).
So if you view every ruck contest as an opportunity to kickstart a scoring chain with a hit-out to advantage then we're squandering that opportunity on ROB who gets a HOA only 11.8% of contests compared to the average of the ten best ruckmen who do it 17% of the time. Put another way ROB costs as a HOA every single quarter he's out there.

But, you say, he's a competitive beast who makes up for what he lacks in ruck output with impact around the ground. Wrong again. If you look at (the admittedly flawed metric of) AFL fantasy points and deduct points for hit-outs to see what other, non-ruck, points are left then (again adjusted for TOG) ROB is an also-ran at only 20th best among his peers. The best all-around players in the ruck (Grundy, Gawn plus Rowan Marshall) generate more than 50% greater contribution than ROB.
It's only the other ruck 'dinosaurs' like Goldstein and Mumford who sit alongside ROB for lack of production.

To be fair perhaps the only thing that can be said in his defence is that we don't suffer any meaningful hit-out or clearance differential to our opponents across the season. So perhaps our strategy is to have ROB out there to basically nullify the opposition which is hardly a lofty ambition.

Now despite everything I've written here I do like the bloke as he seems like a nice bloke who's no trouble around the club and he's gives everything he's got but surely it's come time to experiment a bit more with this position as we go through our rebuild. Try Kieren Strachan as first ruck for a few weeks and give ROB a rest...try the two of them in tandem to see what happens. Draft a young, high potential ruckman who we can nurture for a few years with at least the hope of having a high performer in the role in the distant future.

But surely the numbers don't lie, ROB is simply not the quality of player to lead us to a premiership.
Click to expand...

Is a hitout to advantage still defined as a Hitout that reaches an intended team mate?

We have one of the worst midfield in the comp, I would suggest worst.


Wouldn't our Ruckman's HoA stat be hindered by that? Our midfield not able to win the ball off his tapwork.



I think RoB is a good, not great Ruckman. Which is really all you need. I would rather spend cap space on quality mids than a better Ruckman.



Of course we should be looking to draft one this year though. Our young Ruck stocks are bare. And 3 years of development from this draft sees out most (all) of RoB's current contract.

Sent from my SM-G965F using Tapatalk
 
Geoffa32 said:
Is a hitout to advantage still defined as a Hitout that reaches an intended team mate?

We have one of the worst midfield in the comp, I would suggest worst.


Wouldn't our Ruckman's HoA stat be hindered by that? Our midfield not able to win the ball off his tapwork.



I think RoB is a good, not great Ruckman. Which is really all you need. I would rather spend cap space on quality mids than a better Ruckman.



Of course we should be looking to draft one this year though. Our young Ruck stocks are bare. And 3 years of development from this draft sees out most (all) of RoB's current contract.

Sent from my SM-G965F using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
ROB is a very ordinary Centre ball up ruck because he can't grapple etc like he does at stoppage ball ups and boundary throw ins.
 
Mutineer said:
ROB is a very ordinary Centre ball up ruck because he can't grapple etc like he does at stoppage ball ups and boundary throw ins.
Click to expand...
That is true.

But I still think that stat would be better with a more capable midfield.


I am of the view that you just need a Ruck who is not completely dominated in the middle.

And he doesn't get completely dominated.

Build the midfield group up, rather than bring in an elite Ruck via trade.


If we draft an elite Ruck, even better.



Sent from my SM-G965F using Tapatalk
 
Last edited:
How are hitouts to advantage adjudicated? If O'Brien does a great hitout that is seemingly to the advantage of one of our players, but they slip over or otherwise fumble the ball, does it still count as a hitout to advantage? Just saying, his poor HTA stat could be the result of the worst-in-the-AFL midfield around him.

In any event, I agree with you. O'Brien is a decent ruck at best and likewise decent at best around the ground. Not the highest priority for our list, and I definitely wouldn't look to trade in a top-shelf ruck unless they happened to come at a bargain price, but we should definitely be drafting a minimum of one new young ruck in to start developing, in the hopes that they're ready to go when our list is ready to contend again.
 
With a ruckman such as ROB it means our mids can’t be proactive at all at the centre bounce. We can’t have movement through there as odds are ROB won’t win the tap and our mid who is streaming through will be completely out of position. We’re stagnant in there because of ROBs deficiencies as a ruckman.
 
like a couple have said... our midfield must be terrifying to tap to.

I'm up and down on the bloke, but he did have an imposing field game (#hurnlike) on the weekend with 6 marks (50% contested) to natanui's 1...
 
marvin said:
But also not the first issue to resolve. Nankervis joined Richmond at the end of 2016 for pick 46. There is always a veteran ruckman available for a late pick.
Click to expand...

Bingo. You don't draft a good ruckman, you buy one from someone else. Like we did with Sauce. Like Sydney have done over and over. The draft is for back up rucks.

We're not good enough to entice another Sauce just yet. Like a lot of players and coaches at the club, ROB has another year or two to show he's a true # 1 ruck in a good team, or risk being cast aside for someone better.
 
ROB is also a bit Kelly-like in that when he takes one of his very impressive towering marks in general play (usually defensive), he cannot move the ball on quickly.

I think this is because of his poor disposal skills by hand and foot. The only thing that he can reliably do is to settle himself and then carefully kick a long 40-45m ball forward. Unfortunately he cannot kick it to himself.

As a result of this deficit, he also cannot act as a midfielder in a rapid chain of ball movement out of defence and into the forwards.

If ROB had the luxury of Andy McLeod reading the play to be able to glide past and quickly take a 1-2m handball after a mark, who would then evade and race away to deliver the ball accurately (or Goodwin, Ricuitto, Edwards, K Johnson) then he’d be a better player than he is now. ROB and Caleb Daniel might bear some fruit.
 
If ROB can learn to play within his limits and leverage his attributes which his contested marking, work rate around the ground and 2nd efforts he will be a stronger player for the team

When ROB starts to flirt with doing things that are outside of his strengths or limits that's where it goes a bit wrong for him.

The team also needs to play to his strengths and stop giving him the ball as a 1st or 2nd receiver

On SM-G973F using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
Mutineer said:
Didn't look to bloody insignificant against the Weagles on the weekend with the Eagles mids on the move at centre ball ups knowing the odds were Nic Nat was going to put it down there throat. A couple of those palm downs to Yeo were poetry in motion.
Click to expand...
Nic Nat does that to every Ruckman though

I've heard it said that it's not so much about winning taps, but neutralising the contest and giving your mids 50/50 opportunities to go to work

Interesting that Nankervis is viewed as an integral component to the RICH midfield ......he's hardly a great tap ruckman, but it's his around the ground stuff that is so valued ......likewise the same with McEvoy

I'm seeing ROB in the Nankervis bracket .....very average tap ruckman, but his value is his marking and around the ground stuff
Well that's been absolutely horrid this year .....his attitude hasn't been right & he's been half-hearted in his efforts .....yes he's had games where his marking has been excellent & you think he's back ....but the next week he's off his game again .....dropping his head in marking contests, blindly throwing the ball on his boot, and just wandering from contest to contest

The problem remains, you get this sporadic form when there's no competition for your position
 
WaynesWorld19 said:
Nic Nat does that to every Ruckman though

I've heard it said that it's not so much about winning taps, but neutralising the contest and giving your mids 50/50 opportunities to go to work

Interesting that Nankervis is viewed as an integral component to the RICH midfield ......he's hardly a great tap ruckman, but it's his around the ground stuff that is so valued ......likewise the same with McEvoy

I'm seeing ROB in the Nankervis bracket .....very average tap ruckman, but his value is his marking and around the ground stuff
Well that's been absolutely horrid this year .....his attitude hasn't been right & he's been half-hearted in his efforts .....yes he's had games where his marking has been excellent & you think he's back ....but the next week he's off his game again .....dropping his head in marking contests, blindly throwing the ball on his boot, and just wandering from contest to contest

The problem remains, you get this sporadic form when there's no competition for your position
Click to expand...
Lycett and Nankervis are Premiership Ruckman.

Nicknat, Grundy and Gawn are not.

Sent from my SM-G965F using Tapatalk
 
Reader mode
You must log in or register to reply here.

Remove this Banner Ad

Back
Top