Resurgence

[TheCotchyBear]

Does anyone else get the feeling once big Ivan come's back in, hopefully this week, we'll see a resurgent Tigers outfit?

Everytime you hear the players speak about Ivy they talk about how much of a barometer he is, the way he organises the centre clearences, and his overall impact as a leader.

I get a strong inkling we will start to fire once the big bloke is back in the side. Will be vital.

 

[avengers]

He always give me hope.. He is our mulletted angel sent from heaven via the crows to forever give hope and inspire the thousands of Richmond supporters with his warrior like effort and blood pumping goals!

 

[Rumballs]

You can't help but hope.
The thought of an even half fit Ivvy at Dreamtime

 

[WATiger86]

We'll surge to 9th on the back of a stronger second half of the season...

 

[Tiger Titus]

We'll surge to 9th on the back of a stronger second half of the season...

I'll preface this by saying I can't tip for shit and am coming last in the office comp at the moment, but I went through Bailey's ladder predictor on the AFL website.

The only blatant fudges I was aware of making were being favourable towards us, and giving the Suns too much weight for home ground advantage (they play all their tough games at home for the rest of the year). I got the following result, and when I realised it was possible I dropped a truckload of expletives:

I present to you all Richmond with 15 wins + 9th postion

 

[SumTingWong]

I'll preface this by saying I can't tip for shit and am coming last in the office comp at the moment, but I went through Bailey's ladder predictor on the AFL website.

The only blatant fudges I was aware of making were being favourable towards us, and giving the Suns too much weight for home ground advantage (they play all their tough games at home for the rest of the year). I got the following result, and when I realised it was possible I dropped a truckload of expletives:

I present to you all Richmond with 15 wins + 9th postion
View attachment 58982

Why would somebody who is last in their tipping comp predict the winners of every single games from round 11 and then post their findings as though they could actually happen? Perplexed..................but slightly amusing.

 

[Tiger Titus]

Why would somebody who is last in their tipping comp predict the winners of every single games from round 11 and then post their findings as though they could actually happen? Perplexed..................but slightly amusing.

Not saying it's likely, just depressed that it's possible.

 

[SumTingWong]

Not saying it's likely, just depressed that it's possible.

Don't get too depressed, doesn't look like we'll finish anywhere near that high this year........................

 

[juss]

Yes we will come home strong in the second half of the year, but the damage has been done with losses to the Bulldogs and Melbourne. We will fall just short of the 8.

 

[juss]

I'll preface this by saying I can't tip for shit and am coming last in the office comp at the moment, but I went through Bailey's ladder predictor on the AFL website.

The only blatant fudges I was aware of making were being favourable towards us, and giving the Suns too much weight for home ground advantage (they play all their tough games at home for the rest of the year). I got the following result, and when I realised it was possible I dropped a truckload of expletives:

I present to you all Richmond with 15 wins + 9th postion
View attachment 58982

There is no chance Gold Coast are finishing top of the ladder.

 

[TiggerMan22]

I'll preface this by saying I can't tip for shit and am coming last in the office comp at the moment, but I went through Bailey's ladder predictor on the AFL website.

The only blatant fudges I was aware of making were being favourable towards us, and giving the Suns too much weight for home ground advantage (they play all their tough games at home for the rest of the year). I got the following result, and when I realised it was possible I dropped a truckload of expletives:

I present to you all Richmond with 15 wins + 9th postion
View attachment 58982

Only tipped Gold Coast to lose 1 more game for the year?
Also what up with the losses column from 10th down.

 

[Tiger Titus]

There is no chance Gold Coast are finishing top of the ladder.

Only tipped Gold Coast to lose 1 more game for the year?

I said I gave too much weight to their home ground advantage, but the only current top 8 team they play away from home for the rest of the year is Hawthorn.

Take 4 wins off their tally and add one to each of Geelong, Sydney, Collingwood, and Port. It doesn't change where we're at does it?

Also what up with the losses column from 10th down.

The output didn't seem to cope with 2 digit numbers, see also the games played column.

 

[RichoLedio]

While he is my favourite player and I love the man in scary and confusing ways it worries me to think just how important it seems he is to us

 

[juss]

I said I gave too much weight to their home ground advantage, but the only current top 8 team they play away from home for the rest of the year is Hawthorn.

Take 4 wins off their tally and add one to each of Geelong, Sydney, Collingwood, and Port. It doesn't change where we're at does it?



The output didn't seem to cope with 2 digit numbers, see also the games played column.

Still feel that Gold Coast being relatively young will drop off in the second half of the year. They will finish 5th-8th.

 

[Cotcho]

LOL We only lose 1 more game for the year!!! Where do I sign up?!

 

[TheLoungeLizard]

I don't want to be blacklisted here, but is he that important?

Reality is he's getting older than we would like, with injury issues that will always be an issue till he retires.

 

[leekok]

I'll preface this by saying I can't tip for shit and am coming last in the office comp at the moment, but I went through Bailey's ladder predictor on the AFL website.

The only blatant fudges I was aware of making were being favourable towards us, and giving the Suns too much weight for home ground advantage (they play all their tough games at home for the rest of the year). I got the following result, and when I realised it was possible I dropped a truckload of expletives:

I present to you all Richmond with 15 wins + 9th postion
View attachment 58982

I may be pretty new to this still but from where I sit, we finish equal eighth with norf according to your ladder. Wouldn't that be something to consider.

 

[Ralll]

Ivan will definitely help but when you put all the pieces together theres a logical reason why we've been so poor early.

*We start the season a little complacent after over achieving(?) last season.
*We put alot of emphasis on our defensive game in the off season to try to improve it.
*We change our forward line structure and its taking us a while to get competent at it.
*We then lose Maric/Lids/Jackson/Rance which further stops our run and contested ball after the defensive focus.
*Not only are these our better players, theyre some of our best on field leaders which is another area we have been lacking.

Losing to GC we had plenty more I50's we just couldnt hit the scoreboard with the new forward line strategy.
Bulldogs was a shocker and still only lost by 2(?) points.
9.20 against Melbourne without much intent was poor but we should have won.
Geelong/Hawks/Collingwood had our measure, not that we played overly well...

I can definitely see a resurgence coming, our little club wide powow seems to have kick started us again and Ivy coming back now will be some nice icing on the cake. I still think our season is gone and we dropped the ball early not making fundamental changes to a more attacking attitude after the injuries, but hey... hindsight is a wonderful thing.

Lets hope Dimma and co. learnt something from it all for next season, while we enjoy screwing up others finals hopes, with a glimmer of hope for us still.

 

[TJTIGER]

Don't get too depressed, doesn't look like we'll finish anywhere near that high this year........................

Going to go out on a limb here and say I'd rather finish lower than 9th if we're outside the 8. Only because I think our team will rebound strongly next year (and I'd rather get the higher draft picks if we are out of the 8). That's just me though because I think this season has been an abberation....

 

[Tiger Titus]

I may be pretty new to this still but from where I sit, we finish equal eighth with norf according to your ladder. Wouldn't that be something to consider.

I think the ladder prediction program is fairly limited and placed them higher because they come first alphabetically.

The point I was trying to make was that if the top teams keep winning it's possible for us to turn our season around, experience this "resurgence", get 13+ wins, and still miss finals. More people seem to be getting caught up in "Richmond and Gold Coast only losing 1 more game this season - lol nope".

I won't be surprised if there's a team on 13-14 wins in 9th spot this year. I hope it's North.

 

[cairo tiger]

I don't want to be blacklisted here, but is he that important?

Reality is he's getting older than we would like, with injury issues that will always be an issue till he retires.

hes the best big ruckman we have. he can jump, run, is good on the ground, he can take a mark and he is a good kick. I cannot believe you even ask the question.....

problem is what happens to the other big guys? I say keep hampo for a bit, and play one of griff and vickery. If you have read any of my posts
before you will understand that I support griff more than vickery.

 

[T4P]

I don't rate Adelaide, Carlton, WC or Essendon. Reckon 8th is between us and GC, barring some massive collapse by hawthorn due to injuries everywhere, or Port for overachieving, or North choking.

Them:
Win: Eagles (away), Dogs (away), Lions, Saints (home), Bombers (away), Eagles (home): 4 guaranteed, 2 ifs
Lose: Crows (away), Swans, Cats (home), hawks (away), Pies (home), Blues (away), Power (Home): 4 guaranteed, 3 ifs
13-9

I have us:
Beating: Bombers x2, Freo (home), Syd (home), saints x2, lions, power (melb), eagles (away), giants, crows (away): 6 guaranteed, 5 ifs
Losing to: Roos, Swans (away): 1 guaranteed, 1 if.
14-8

Really was an 8 point match losing to them at the start of the year. Bolded are the consistency issues between the two. It's an uphill battle for us to make it, but it's not all that out of reality, considering everything...

 

[ReaperX]

Let's just focus on getting wins, the ladder will take care of itself at the end of the year.

Looking at our next 13 matches, I have it broken up into blocks. This upcoming block of 4, and then 3 blocks of 3 matches each.

This next 4 week block, we have:

Essendon (The Dreamtime game which we have struggled to play well in recent times)
North Melbourne (Major bogey team, but very hot and cold)
Fremantle (At the MCG)
Sydney (At the MCG)

We can afford 1 loss from these 4 matches, the rest we need to win.

If we can do that, we turn into the next block of 3 matches at 6-7.

That next block consists of:

St. Kilda (Had the wood over them for a few years)
Brisbane Lions (At the MCG)
Port Adelaide (At the MCG)

This concludes our run of 7 straight matches in Victoria (6 at the MCG, and 1 at Etihad). Of those above 3, we must win minimum 2 of them, however I do feel that despite the form of the Power at the moment, by the time Round 16 drops around, we'll be in some good form and wlll be a real shot to take them down.

Due to the losses against the Demons and Bulldogs earlier in the year, we effectively have to win 6 of these first 7 matches. IF we can do it though, we'll be heading into the next block of 3 games at a respectable 9-7 win/loss ratio.

That next block is:

West Coast (At Pattersons Stadium)
GWS (At the MCG)
Essendon (The second encounter of the year, in which we usually go alright against the Bombers, who by this time of the year are fading into insignificance).

This is the block where, if we've built some sufficient momentum in the previous couple of months (as mentioned above), we can carry that through to win all 3 of them, and take ourselves to 12-7, and almost a lock for finals.

Our final block goes:

Adelaide (At Adelaide Oval, very winnable)
St. Kilda (see above)
Sydney (At ANZ, which means we avoid the SCG, a place we hate to play)

Win 2 of these last 3, and we finish 14-8, and probably 7th. If we can snag the Sydney game too, and go 15-7, we'd probably have built up a pretty decent percentage through only losing 2 more games for the whole year (considering we are already at 102%) and could replicate 5th from 2013. Lose to Sydney, and drop the game to Adelaide, and we could finish 8th with 13 wins and 9 losses, and potentially play Gold Coast in a sudden death final at Metricon.

Playing off against a team without any finals experience, even if it is at their home ground, well here's when that loss to Carlton becomes important, because it gives us the finals experience necessary to deal with the pressure, and considering we'd be playing the 5th placed team, the pressure would probably be off us anyway, so I could forsee a win there against the youngsters of the GC, similar to the way Carlton beat us last year (5th placed, over-achieving for where we were truly at, and being overrun by a team with finals experience).

Does this seem realistic in terms of optimal outcomes, or am I completely off with the fairies? I'll admit my faith was shaken with the loss to the Dees, and even though we beat a poor team in GWS, it was actually the way we did it that gave me some optimism, moreso than the actual result.

We absolutely put GWS to the sword, when the usual Richmond of 2014 (and even of 2013 mostly) would have won that game by 40 or 50 points, ala the win against the Lions in Round 5 (who were arguably in worse shape when we played them than what GWS were on the weekend).

 

[Tiger Toffee]

Just looking at the ladder and the next 2 rounds, there is a real chance that 8th -13th could all be on 5-6 including the tigers and the tigers come home with the easier draw.

 

[kozi]

Let's just focus on getting wins, the ladder will take care of itself at the end of the year.

Looking at our next 13 matches, I have it broken up into blocks. This upcoming block of 4, and then 3 blocks of 3 matches each.

This next 4 week block, we have:

Essendon (The Dreamtime game which we have struggled to play well in recent times)
North Melbourne (Major bogey team, but very hot and cold)
Fremantle (At the MCG)
Sydney (At the MCG)

We can afford 1 loss from these 4 matches, the rest we need to win.

If we can do that, we turn into the next block of 3 matches at 6-7.

That next block consists of:

St. Kilda (Had the wood over them for a few years)
Brisbane Lions (At the MCG)
Port Adelaide (At the MCG)

This concludes our run of 7 straight matches in Victoria (6 at the MCG, and 1 at Etihad). Of those above 3, we must win minimum 2 of them, however I do feel that despite the form of the Power at the moment, by the time Round 16 drops around, we'll be in some good form and wlll be a real shot to take them down.

Due to the losses against the Demons and Bulldogs earlier in the year, we effectively have to win 6 of these first 7 matches. IF we can do it though, we'll be heading into the next block of 3 games at a respectable 9-7 win/loss ratio.

That next block is:

West Coast (At Pattersons Stadium)
GWS (At the MCG)
Essendon (The second encounter of the year, in which we usually go alright against the Bombers, who by this time of the year are fading into insignificance).

This is the block where, if we've built some sufficient momentum in the previous couple of months (as mentioned above), we can carry that through to win all 3 of them, and take ourselves to 12-7, and almost a lock for finals.

Our final block goes:

Adelaide (At Adelaide Oval, very winnable)
St. Kilda (see above)
Sydney (At ANZ, which means we avoid the SCG, a place we hate to play)

Win 2 of these last 3, and we finish 14-8, and probably 7th. If we can snag the Sydney game too, and go 15-7, we'd probably have built up a pretty decent percentage through only losing 2 more games for the whole year (considering we are already at 102%) and could replicate 5th from 2013. Lose to Sydney, and drop the game to Adelaide, and we could finish 8th with 13 wins and 9 losses, and potentially play Gold Coast in a sudden death final at Metricon.

Playing off against a team without any finals experience, even if it is at their home ground, well here's when that loss to Carlton becomes important, because it gives us the finals experience necessary to deal with the pressure, and considering we'd be playing the 5th placed team, the pressure would probably be off us anyway, so I could forsee a win there against the youngsters of the GC, similar to the way Carlton beat us last year (5th placed, over-achieving for where we were truly at, and being overrun by a team with finals experience).

Does this seem realistic in terms of optimal outcomes, or am I completely off with the fairies? I'll admit my faith was shaken with the loss to the Dees, and even though we beat a poor team in GWS, it was actually the way we did it that gave me some optimism, moreso than the actual result.

We absolutely put GWS to the sword, when the usual Richmond of 2014 (and even of 2013 mostly) would have won that game by 40 or 50 points, ala the win against the Lions in Round 5 (who were arguably in worse shape when we played them than what GWS were on the weekend).

Completely off with the fairies, sorry. Even been the most optimistic i can be i don't see us getting anywhere near 14 wins. 11 out of the next 13 simply ain't gonna happen. This is a reasonable prediction:

Essendon W
North Melbourne L
Fremantle W/L
Sydney W/L (1 of these 2)

St. Kilda W
Brisbane Lions W
Port Adelaide L

West Coast 50/50
GWS W
Essendon L (odds are we go 1-1 against them)

Adelaide W
St. Kilda W
Sydney L

So 11 if we beat Eagles in the West. On the ladder that would put us at.... you guessed it.