Jimmae
Brownlow Medallist
Over my lifetime, there are only three clubs who have gotten under my skin for their ability to pull a performance out of nowhere against us: Essendon, Fremantle and North Melbourne.
The worst part about this is that all three tend do it through back chat, obscuring the umpires view at stoppages and good old fashioned intimidation. Not the stuff of strong men, but the stuff of school-yard bullies. And almost every time, we get sucked in.
However unlike the other two teams, our rivalry with the Dons is the stuff of legend:
The 2001 game without SOS, Bradley and Kouta.
The 1999 prelim.
The 1993 Grand Final (how many AFL rules do these arseclowns get to break anyway?).
They love to crow about the recent encounters between the two teams, but frankly we've both been at best middle-of-the-road since then end of 2001, since they hilariously squandered a dynasty and we had thrown all our eggs in the Kouta, Parkin and Legends Stand basket, and subsequently watched the basket burst into flames.
And so those all these figurative fires burn on, with the victor of these games typically the team that can hold their nerve for longer.
Matchups almost don't matter; ladder position doesn't matter. This game is decided by the psyche of the 22 men that go out for each team, and that's why these games are unnerving for me no matter how good our form is.
Form line:
Blues - TBD, L, L, W, L, L
Dons - W, W, [REDACTED]
Last five encounters: L, W, L, D, L
Noteable injuries:
Blues - Byrne (ACL, indefinite), Phillips (foot, 1 week)
Dons - Green (hamstring, 2 weeks), Laverde (ankle, 11 weeks), Leuenberger (hamstring, test)
Selection chances:
Blues - Kerridge, Buckley, Sheehan, Palmer, McKay, Boekhorst
Dons - Bellchambers, Francis, Leuenberger, Stewart, Brown
Team philosophies:
Blues - stoppage control, high press and midfield/forward pressure, counter attack, marks inside 50
Dons - stoppage spread, midfield pressure, counter attack, numbers back and goals over the top
Difference makers:
Blues - Cripps, Gibbs, Murphy, Kreuzer, Weitering, Docherty, Marchbank, Pickett
Dons - Hurley, Daniher, Watson, Heppell, McDonald-Tipungwuti, Hooker
Our defence vs their forwards:
Despite his kicking woes, Daniher is a constant threat on the lead, and will be a challenge for Rowe, White or Plowman, which leaves a pretty tough test for Marchbank, especially if Hooker remains forward.
That said, there's a real possibility that Hooker gets shifted into defence and a genuine ruck comes in to support McKernan, with both Bellchambers and Leuenberger close to sleection.
Their small forwards could be troublesome if we worry about them on the counter, but the focus should be on pressuring the kicker so that their longer kicks fall shallow and we can intercept. If you're late to a marking pack and your name isn't Sam Rowe or Levi Casboult, please stay the **** down.
Midfield:
Very evenly matched, right down to archetypes. Watson vs Cripps; Thomas vs Heppell; Simpson vs Stanton; Murphy vs Parish; Wright vs Colyer; Goddard vs Docherty; SPS vs Zaharakis; Gibbs vs Kelly. They bat a smidge deeper with Merrett running around versus us having Smedts in the mix, not to mention a larger contingent of small defenders and forwards to support that group.
This makes the ruck battle extremely important, as does each team playing to their strengths. Whichever side is faster and more accurate in its decision making about when to spread versus when to collapse and pressure is going to win the midfield battle, clearance and contested stats be damned.
Support from Pickett and Armfield will be critical in giving us opportunities on the outside.
Our forwards vs their defence:
This is the uphill battle for us. If Hooker goes to defence, that's two former All-Australian backmen against Levi and an otherwise youthful forward group. Wright, Armfield, Gibbs, Murphy, Thomas and Pickett will assist at times at ground level, but it's at best break even contests everywhere unless Charlie Curnow or SOS can exploit a mismatch.
Levi cannot allow himself to get controlled by Hartley again, and additionally must assert himself in the ruck to drive home the advantage we should have there.
Final thoughts:
If we go tall again, I fear that the swarm Essendon traditionally offer around the stoppage and on the counter attack will melt down our defenses if current form offers any guide.
There's a decent chance for us to be competitive if we trust in what our youth can provide in terms of attacking avenues and opportunities. Round 1 showed us they're willing to give them that chance.
My tip:
Head - Essendon by 20
Heart - Tachycardia
ping Aphrodite
The worst part about this is that all three tend do it through back chat, obscuring the umpires view at stoppages and good old fashioned intimidation. Not the stuff of strong men, but the stuff of school-yard bullies. And almost every time, we get sucked in.
However unlike the other two teams, our rivalry with the Dons is the stuff of legend:
The 2001 game without SOS, Bradley and Kouta.
The 1999 prelim.
The 1993 Grand Final (how many AFL rules do these arseclowns get to break anyway?).
They love to crow about the recent encounters between the two teams, but frankly we've both been at best middle-of-the-road since then end of 2001, since they hilariously squandered a dynasty and we had thrown all our eggs in the Kouta, Parkin and Legends Stand basket, and subsequently watched the basket burst into flames.
And so those all these figurative fires burn on, with the victor of these games typically the team that can hold their nerve for longer.
Matchups almost don't matter; ladder position doesn't matter. This game is decided by the psyche of the 22 men that go out for each team, and that's why these games are unnerving for me no matter how good our form is.
Form line:
Blues - TBD, L, L, W, L, L
Dons - W, W, [REDACTED]
Last five encounters: L, W, L, D, L
Noteable injuries:
Blues - Byrne (ACL, indefinite), Phillips (foot, 1 week)
Dons - Green (hamstring, 2 weeks), Laverde (ankle, 11 weeks), Leuenberger (hamstring, test)
Selection chances:
Blues - Kerridge, Buckley, Sheehan, Palmer, McKay, Boekhorst
Dons - Bellchambers, Francis, Leuenberger, Stewart, Brown
Team philosophies:
Blues - stoppage control, high press and midfield/forward pressure, counter attack, marks inside 50
Dons - stoppage spread, midfield pressure, counter attack, numbers back and goals over the top
Difference makers:
Blues - Cripps, Gibbs, Murphy, Kreuzer, Weitering, Docherty, Marchbank, Pickett
Dons - Hurley, Daniher, Watson, Heppell, McDonald-Tipungwuti, Hooker
Our defence vs their forwards:
Despite his kicking woes, Daniher is a constant threat on the lead, and will be a challenge for Rowe, White or Plowman, which leaves a pretty tough test for Marchbank, especially if Hooker remains forward.
That said, there's a real possibility that Hooker gets shifted into defence and a genuine ruck comes in to support McKernan, with both Bellchambers and Leuenberger close to sleection.
Their small forwards could be troublesome if we worry about them on the counter, but the focus should be on pressuring the kicker so that their longer kicks fall shallow and we can intercept. If you're late to a marking pack and your name isn't Sam Rowe or Levi Casboult, please stay the **** down.
Midfield:
Very evenly matched, right down to archetypes. Watson vs Cripps; Thomas vs Heppell; Simpson vs Stanton; Murphy vs Parish; Wright vs Colyer; Goddard vs Docherty; SPS vs Zaharakis; Gibbs vs Kelly. They bat a smidge deeper with Merrett running around versus us having Smedts in the mix, not to mention a larger contingent of small defenders and forwards to support that group.
This makes the ruck battle extremely important, as does each team playing to their strengths. Whichever side is faster and more accurate in its decision making about when to spread versus when to collapse and pressure is going to win the midfield battle, clearance and contested stats be damned.
Support from Pickett and Armfield will be critical in giving us opportunities on the outside.
Our forwards vs their defence:
This is the uphill battle for us. If Hooker goes to defence, that's two former All-Australian backmen against Levi and an otherwise youthful forward group. Wright, Armfield, Gibbs, Murphy, Thomas and Pickett will assist at times at ground level, but it's at best break even contests everywhere unless Charlie Curnow or SOS can exploit a mismatch.
Levi cannot allow himself to get controlled by Hartley again, and additionally must assert himself in the ruck to drive home the advantage we should have there.
Final thoughts:
If we go tall again, I fear that the swarm Essendon traditionally offer around the stoppage and on the counter attack will melt down our defenses if current form offers any guide.
There's a decent chance for us to be competitive if we trust in what our youth can provide in terms of attacking avenues and opportunities. Round 1 showed us they're willing to give them that chance.
My tip:
Head - Essendon by 20
Heart - Tachycardia
ping Aphrodite
"Goddess" 
Drop young guy who is playing well? Makes zero sense.
