Autopsy Round 10, 2018: Richmond v St.Kilda

[Moral Decay]

I call bullshit, we didn't miss Brown's unquantifiable "leadership" or "rallying" yesterday at all.

Like "patriotism being the last refuge of the scoundrel", so is "leadership" the last refuge of the useless footballer, if you have two players that deliver the same results or so close they can't be separated then play the "leadership" card, but when there's a gap in output just select the better player, the less injured player.
The other side of the leadership coin, if the "leadership" player, can't run or kick or tackle has to hide in the forward pocket, then all he has to offer is telling other people what to do and he'd have to be a genius at that to make up for his limitations, if he's not that genius then he's just pulling down his team mates that have to work that much harder to compensate for his limitations, which over multiple weeks and months creates resentment and cliques within the playing group.
It also becomes a crutch/false dichotomy to select on field leaders when there are issues with off field leadership.

 

[Pardon me]

On the Steele Vs Dunstan thing....

What are people’s thoughts....
Which one gets the nod and which one gets dropped?
Can we really only play one of them?

For me this is something I’ve been wrestling as I like both, but think we can only play one. IMO Dunstan is ahead, but I think Steele is better suited as he is big bodied, and can stand up in tackles and feed out.

I have Dunstan ahead on his body of work he has in the bank.
I’d play both and bring in another outside runner to give Steven a chop out. If we persist with this manic speed gameplay opposing teams will look to lock it down and we’ll need both to share the grunt work.
Just my thoughts...plus I really like both lads and don’t want to pick one to drop

 

[bird_man]

If they are both playing at their best I think Steele and Dunstan in the same team if fine.

 

[VDS66]

I think we can all agree on the poor standard of games this year. It’s been atrocious!

Good call on Cotch & Martin, I certainly don’t disagree. Take them out of yesterday’s match & we probably win it (unless someone else for them stood up with the greater responsibility).

Thing is...

Fair call to quote who they lost. But we went in without Bruce and Robbo who are just as important as us.

We weren't exactly at full strength.

It's funny how people point out other teams injuries and how it helps us, but never say his the loss of Jake or Robbo helped the other team.

It cuts both ways. Swings and roundabouts...

 

[Rors]

Haha you obviously have the wrong TV brand.

I can hook you up with a guy in Perth who has a magic TV that sees all sorts of things from interstate...

Too be fair, picture is very small when watching on an iPhone. Kids were watching Moana on the tellie

 

[George]

View attachment 502989 The media picked an interesting week to lay into Billings considering he actually did alright.

Really poor from Dinny given he is the Saints reporter for the AFL. He is better than that.

 

[Rors]

Im intrigued at the statements made by the club hierarchy last week, yet there’s been no public ‘reset’ of expectations considering the injuries we’ve had.

That’s why I’m not using our injuries as an excuse because the club aren’t even using it as an excuse. Club expects to be finals quality regardless which means they really do rate our list.

I’m glad we’ve copped a few injuries as it’s allowed us to really find some gold in the youngsters on the list which may not have occurred otherwise

 

[bergholt]

IMO, whatever we are doing/planning is not working at this stage. And that’s the big picture for mine.

That conclusion depends on knowing what we're planning. Certainly looks to me like a lot of the execution has been off target, but mistakes are the only constant in any business when you're dealing with humans. The question is whether we're moving in the right direction, and if we could do so faster by changing things. It's pretty hard to tell that from the outside.

 

[bergholt]

Too be fair, picture is very small when watching on an iPhone. Kids were watching Moana on the tellie

Good film. I'd probably watch that ahead of a Saints game this year.

 

[Mikka84]

Reality check: this is a development year and was probably always going to be.

It's no fun to lose games but we did a terrible job of drafting and developing kids for about 8 years, 2004 to 2012. (Maybe 2011 aside.) That means we now have the worst bunch of experienced players in the league. It shouldn't be surprising that we're going badly and will need to wait a bit longer for a side that can seriously challenge.

It's not "accepting mediocrity", it's about understanding where we are and how we might be able to build to success from here.

I think this nails it. It’s hard to accept because of the dream we were delivered from the 2020 prophecy. I think we can all say we’re an elite or two short - especially at the senior end.

I do think the footy club way overrated our list. Now who’s fault/s that is I don’t know. I mentioned a couple of months ago - in my opinion we’re a few years off. Once the senior players are the generation of now.

 

[bennymc7]

I'd have Newnes out before Sinclair

On the last couple of weeks I disagree..

Sincs has been awful, Newnes has lifted

 

[StPiper]

I really don't get the negativity from some this week. What did people expect to happen? If we had played yesterday like we have played most of the year we would've been crushed by 80+ imo.

Once it became obvious that the team isn't anywhere near where you thought it would be, you can only really ask two things of the club at this stage of the year: 1) We try something new (game plan, players etc) and 2) We see some improvement.

I don't think you could argue that we didn't see either of those things yesterday.

 

[bergholt]

I think this nails it. It’s hard to accept because of the dream we were delivered from the 2020 prophecy. I think we can all say we’re an elite or two short - especially at the senior end.

I do think the footy club way overrated our list. Now who’s fault/s that is I don’t know. I mentioned a couple of months ago - in my opinion we’re a few years off. Once the senior players are the generation of now.

Just glancing at it, end of next year we should have:

120+ games: Geary, Steven, Brown, Savage, Newnes, Carlisle, Roberton, Weller, Ross
70+ games: Bruce, Dunstan, Webster, Billings, Hickey, Membrey, Gresham, Acres, Steele, Sinclair, Longer
20+ games: Lonie, McCartin, Coffield, McKenzie, Austin, Clark, Long, White, Phillips
0+ games: Marshall, Rice, Goddard, Battle, Paton, Freeman, Pierce, Clavarino, Joyce, Langlands, two more sets of draftees

(Obviously a lot of assumptions about who plays how many games, and how the list changes.)

That looks like an OK list balance to me. The brackets are:

120+ games: experienced leadership - really seasoned players
70+ games: list core - at this point they've basically fulfilled their potential
20+ games: rapidly developing - should be still improving (or gone)
0+ games: others - not too much expected here yet

The "experienced leadership" is still a bit lacking, there's solid players there but not necessarily a lot at high quality. Compare to Richmond's 120+ gamers, who are currently the gold standard: Riewoldt, Edwards, Cotchin, Grigg, Martin, Rance, Houli, B Ellis, Prestia, Caddy. But our guys could be solid enough if the rest of the side is good enough.

The "list core" is still where our hopes would be if we're hoping to be in strong finals contention in 2020. We'll know how good these guys are going to be by then. This is a big group and I still reckon they've got enough potential to look really good - if we can develop them well enough before then.

The "rapidly developing" are guys who should be giving us real X-factor in 2020. Not necessarily consistent performers still but filling a role most weeks and some weeks even better. Including guys like Paddy, Coff, Clark, Long, Phillips in this group suggests we could be getting a lot through this range.

The "others" is pretty hard to predict this far out. Rice looks OK, Battle has promise, all the rest could be gone or great by then, who knows?


Add a Sloane or similar to the experienced leadership (he'll be 30 early in 2020) and this starts looking pretty reasonable to me. But we have to get there first.

 

[sunny3193]

We have a mojo ?

Yes, we borrowed it from the Library.

 

[Longmembrey]

Yeah, fair point! I guess journalism is hard when they've got a skeleton staff and get paid about minimum wage.

Really poor from Dinny given he is the Saints reporter for the AFL. He is better than that.

Do you really think the person who writes the article gets to choose the headline and photos?

 

[George]

Do you really think the person who writes the article gets to choose the headline and photos?

I was more talking about writing the article in the first place. Wasn't needed IMO.

 

[Rors]

I really don't get the negativity from some this week. What did people expect to happen? If we had played yesterday like we have played most of the year we would've been crushed by 80+ imo.

Once it became obvious that the team isn't anywhere near where you thought it would be, you can only really ask two things of the club at this stage of the year: 1) We try something new (game plan, players etc) and 2) We see some improvement.

I don't think you could argue that we didn't see either of those things yesterday.

Why do he club themselves think we’re a Finals quality list then? That’s why there’s negativity towards the football department

 

[Moral Decay]

On the Steele Vs Dunstan thing....

What are people’s thoughts....
Which one gets the nod and which one gets dropped?
Can we really only play one of them?

For me this is something I’ve been wrestling as I like both, but think we can only play one. IMO Dunstan is ahead, but I think Steele is better suited as he is big bodied, and can stand up in tackles and feed out.

Like you I think we can play only one, at the moment I think Luke's best is more prolific but of lower quality, but his complete skill set is more limited, Steele can play as stopper when necessary and is better over head.
It would be interesting to ask opposition coaches what they plan for, I'm positive that they plan to limit the output and effectiveness of Ross, Billings, Acres, Gresh and Steven and an in form Sinclair.

With Luke and Steele there'd be an inclination to just play head to head, it won't matter how much ball they get the disposals won't hurt, our game against Freemantle is a good example.

Dunstan: 14 kicks, 12 handballs 26 possessions @ 50% DE or 13 effective possessions
Steele: 9 kicks, 14 handballs, 23 possessions @ 65.2 DE or 14 effective possessions

over the season so far
Dunstan: average disposals 24.86; tackles 40; clangers 29; game time 76.9%; 1% 14; contested 82
Steele: average disposals 21.13; tackles 50; clangers 21; game time 74%, 1% 9; contested 74

2018 neither are in the
top 100 for meters gained average: (1) Seedsman 619m, (7) Seb 465m, (11) Webster 452.38m, (20) Steven 437.1m, (42) Savage 395.5m , (86) Acres 340.57m, (90) Phillips 339m.
but
top 100 effective disposal average: (1) Laird 25.89, (12) Seb 21.5, Steven (18) 20.1, (32) Savage 18.9, (46) Acres 17.9, (65) Geary 16.5 , (69) Steele 16.22, (83) Luke Dunstan 15.75,
top 100 clangers average: (1) Fyfe 5.78 (26) Dunstan 4.11, (39) Seb 3.80, (39) Steven 3.80, (93) Hickey 3.29
top 100 contested possessions: (1) Cripps 19.6 (40) Dunstan 10.75, (55) Steven 9.8, (61) Ross 9.6, (69) Acres 9.29), (80) Steele 9.0
top 100 centre clearances: (1) Tom Mitchell 4.11, (18) Steven 2.3, (20) Seb 2.1, (44) Hickey 1.57, (76) Dunstan 1.12, (78) Steele 1.18

I've included other peoples stats to show how far off they are not just from the very best but from both Ross and Steven and to be honest to be behind Hickey for centre clearances is damning.
Brutally, right now neither are all that good; the question becomes about ceilings and how their bodies are coping, at best it's toss a coin and maybe Steele comes up.

 

[Sab22]

Some of you need to chill. The boys did us proud. Tough year, high expectations, ton of injuries, lack of leadership/experience, tough draw, lack of stars, limited coaching group yet we haven't been blown away by clubs? We made Tigers fight for their win, went head to head with AFL's most "talented" team GWS.

We have the team, some fixes and we be alright. Not the end of the world.

 

[Rors]

Really it looked like to me we were reverting to a slightly quicker run and gun and attacking the corridor in some instances.

We were switching the ball a whole lot more than usual. Where we struggled was when we couldn't switch it and the Tiger's press chopped off the easy chip kick.

Realistically with the side we are playing how did you expect us to go? Better/worse than expectation.. I expected us to be flogged by 50+

We need to learn how to kick the ball to a advantageous space to protect the teammate marking from an easy spoil. We are so putrid at switching to a stationary player in the corridor who just gets poleaxed because the ball is kicked directly at him & on his head, not to a free space allowing an easy Mark & turn to give a handball to a runner. We make it so difficult when it’s not that difficult at all

 

[StPiper]

Why do he club themselves think we’re a Finals quality list then? That’s why there’s negativity towards the football department

We may very well have (although I'm not so sure myself). But the point still stands, what did people expect out of yesterday's game? That we were going to come out, everything was going to click and we were going to roll over them?

Everyone knows (regardless of our list) that we have not been playing anywhere near finals quality football. That isn't going to change overnight.

I get the negativity about the season as a whole, just not about yesterday's game.

 

[WhiskySaint]

Like you I think we can play only one, at the moment I think Luke's best is more prolific but of lower quality, but his complete skill set is more limited, Steele can play as stopper when necessary and is better over head.
It would be interesting to ask opposition coaches what they plan for, I'm positive that they plan to limit the output and effectiveness of Ross, Billings, Acres, Gresh and Steven and an in form Sinclair.

With Luke and Steele there'd be an inclination to just play head to head, it won't matter how much ball they get the disposals won't hurt, our game against Freemantle is a good example.

Dunstan: 14 kicks, 12 handballs 26 possessions @ 50% DE or 13 effective possessions
Steele: 9 kicks, 14 handballs, 23 possessions @ 65.2 DE or 14 effective possessions

over the season so far
Dunstan: average disposals 24.86; tackles 40; clangers 29; game time 76.9%; 1% 14; contested 82
Steele: average disposals 21.13; tackles 50; clangers 21; game time 74%, 1% 9; contested 74

2018 neither are in the
top 100 for meters gained average: (1) Seedsman 619m, (7) Seb 465m, (11) Webster 452.38m, (20) Steven 437.1m, (42) Savage 395.5m , (86) Acres 340.57m, (90) Phillips 339m.
but
top 100 effective disposal average: (1) Laird 25.89, (12) Seb 21.5, Steven (18) 20.1, (32) Savage 18.9, (46) Acres 17.9, (65) Geary 16.5 , (69) Steele 16.22, (83) Luke Dunstan 15.75,
top 100 clangers average: (1) Fyfe 5.78 (26) Dunstan 4.11, (39) Seb 3.80, (39) Steven 3.80, (93) Hickey 3.29
top 100 contested possessions: (1) Cripps 19.6 (40) Dunstan 10.75, (55) Steven 9.8, (61) Ross 9.6, (69) Acres 9.29), (80) Steele 9.0
top 100 centre clearances: (1) Tom Mitchell 4.11, (18) Steven 2.3, (20) Seb 2.1, (44) Hickey 1.57, (76) Dunstan 1.12, (78) Steele 1.18

I've included other peoples stats to show how far off they are not just from the very best but from both Ross and Steven and to be honest to be behind Hickey for centre clearances is damning.
Brutally, right now neither are all that good; the question becomes about ceilings and how their bodies are coping, at best it's toss a coin and maybe Steele comes up.

Great post!

Interesting that the stats back up the eye test. I love Dunstan because he gives it his all, but I feel that the lack of a dominant inside mid throws our balance out.

I feel Steele is more likely to be able to develop into that dominant inside mid and feed our inside/out and outside players.

 

[Moral Decay]

From an objective opinion, Dunstan had really low game time (58% TOG), and was being played out of position well before he hurt his shoulder mid way through the 3rd term. Hard to get into any kind of rhythm and flow when you are spending that much time on the pine. Not sure what the majority of Saints supporters views are on Alan Richardson, but he appears to be an indecisive coach and it's showing with the way you guys are playing. Everyone looks confused and devoid of confidence.

Dunstan hadn't had a possession to the 15 min mark of the first quarter, did he start on the bench?
Every one has played out of position this year, it's a result of injuries and a poor list as far as the forwards are concerned. One problem we have is too many ordinary midfielders, Lonie, Dunstan, Steele who are realistically one position players. Lonie for example plays in the centre in the VFL and a FP in the AFL because that's the only place for him, if we had depth in specialist HFF and FP chances are guys getting selected for their ability to rotate forward would be playing as full time midfield and pushing Dunstan and Steele out of the team.

 

[Rors]

We may very well have (although I'm not so sure myself). But the point still stands, what did people expect out of yesterday's game? That we were going to come out, everything was going to click and we were going to roll over them?

Everyone knows (regardless of our list) that we have not been playing anywhere near finals quality football. That isn't going to change overnight.

I get the negativity about the season as a whole, just not about yesterday's game.

40 point turnaround from the 17th minute of the 3rd quarter. Supporters are frustrated that we put ourselves in a position to win, then Newnes misses an easy set shot that would have put us up by 17 (I think), Paddy misses from the top of the goal square earlier, Hickey doesn’t make the distance from 40m. Probably should have been 4-5 goals up in the 3rd quarter.

And then let them kick 5.6 in the last.

Frustrating. I’m certainly not one that’s OTT disappointed in yesterday’s game, but it was there for us to win & we couldn’t do it, regardless of how young & inexperienced our team was, that’s a tad frustrating.

But.... a lot of positives out of it too

 

[Rors]

Didn’t Dunstan nearly break his arm or hyperextend his elbow badly in the game yesterday?

His low disposal count can be excused IMHO