Preview Round 11 - Hawthorn v Brisbane 1.10pm Sunday -Marvel

[ZoBlitz]

Gameday thread is up.

 

[Dalions]

Preview – Hawthorn v Brisbane


When – Sunday 26th May 1.10pm


Where – Marvel Stadium


We made the decision after the Grand Final last year that we were going to make this year a bit of a Footy year and try and get to a few away games. We started off booking a trip to Perth to watch the Fremantle game in round 1 (or our second game) that one didn’t end so well with the Lions leaving their footy boots at Brighton Homes Arena like Logan Morris did for his late call up for his first game of AFL, pretty sure I saw them all at McDonalds just hours before the game but can’t be sure as I was a fair way away and am going a bit blind now I have joined the Over 50’s Clique Bwaaaaha! At least Logan put in a good effort after leaving his boots at home, unlike the team on that occasion.

So anyway, I am taking the trip down to Melbourne for this one for the first game ever at Marvel. Hoping for a better result than our first live away game, other than at GC and the Grand Final last year.

Hawks: After a slow start to the year for both teams, we are starting to finally see what both teams are capable of, the Hawks with their young exuberance and run and gun and our more recent style of trying to pick our way through teams with shorter kicking to make our way up the field as opposed to the former long to contest style.

The Hawks have shown in recent weeks a tough and harder intent and have reaped some rewards off the back of that, having won 3 of their last five and an unfortunate 1 point loss in the last game against Port. It never pays to go too defensive with a long time to play as we know all too well.

I have noticed a shift in the way they are playing this year as opposed to last with kicking the ball much more and handballing much less, they were handball happy last year and ultimately the highest handballing team in the comp at that time. Will be interesting to see if they revert to last years profile as we seem to hate defending the handball style of game. At this point they are only averaging an extra 10 handballs per game than us with a kick to handball ratio of basically 1.50 where we are currently averaging 1.80.

Their last five: WLWWL - With good close wins against The Bulldogs and StKilda and a convincing win over North. A close loss to Port on the weekend which they really should have won and a thrashing at the hands of Sydney.

They come into this one in pretty good form and we will need to be at our best to come away with the 4 points.

During an era where we have been regularly making Finals and they have been dwindling down the bottom of the ladder they have a surprisingly good record against us winning the last 3 games.

Hawthorn defeats Brisbane 117-112 (UTAS)

Hawthorn defeats Brisbane 92-80 (UTAS)

Hawthorn defeats Brisbane 90-62 (MCG)

Thankfully this one is at Marvel where we do seem to play pretty well.


Now on the the Lions: That brings me back to a game in 2018 when we were still shit but starting to show signs of improve and I love watching this clip of the game at the Gabba Round 9 2018 our first feel good story of the Fagan Era and the beginning of the rise that we have witnessed since.

Flashback Friday: Round 9 v Hawks

It was only 12 months ago, but still it holds a place in the Brisbane Lions' 33-year history as one of the great wins. Sunday 20 May 2018, Round 9 of last season, when Brisbane hosted Hawthorn at the Gabba for the Luke Hodge Cup.

www.lions.com.au

I remember the night fondly, especially when Matty Eagles kicked his goal. Lots of new faces in the team since then.

We have been through some ups and downs this year but things appear to be settling and some form starting to return. The draw against Adelaide, although heart breaking, you could see that the team was showing some fight and hunt again to really scrap a game out to the end which was great to see after some games this year where the heads really dropped, none worse than the GWS game and the complete mental fade out after a fast start against Carlton.

I felt coming into the year that we were a bit underdone and had structured the pre-season towards being in tip top shape at the end of the year. So we have really battled away to just stay in the race up until now and need to continue to get some wins on the board during a stretch of winnable games before the draw toughens up again. The season is one of the most open I have seen in a long time. The only real stand out is Sydney.

Injuries have cruelled our season to date but we are working our way through it and have possibly found some talent in Lohmann, Reville, Morris, Brain and Sharp who have all shown a bit in the games they have played.

Selection will be a bit of a tough one again this week with Hippy being suspended for a dumping tackle on Vlaustin (harsh imo) which we have decided not to challenge. And Hugh possibly in a bit of doubt as well with a knock to the leg and subbed out of the game at ¾ time against Richmond.

Who do we replace Hipwood with? We could go Ryan who has shown some glimpses, we could go the conservative approach and give Fort a run, if we were to do that I would probably still go with Daniher as second ruck and play Fort as a stay at home forward because I really like Daniher up the ground and he seems to thrive off the responsibility. But if we were to do that, we would be better off with Ryan as he has better forward craft.

Bailey possibly back from injury may solve the Clugga problem if he is unable to get up but I would leave him until after the bye.

Loving Berry playing more in the middle lately, it frees him up to play his more natural game. Would love to see Brain get a full game as he looks like a class act and has a bit of mongrel as well.


I would go:

Outs: Hippy, Clugga???

Ins: Fort, Brain

Sub: Tunstill or Dev

Brain to play a full game in the backline and Wilmot to push up to a wing with Reville playing more a mix of forward/mid.

I feel they will send a hard tag to Lachie so the rest of the mids will have to step up as they have done recently.

Hawks have a really talented young bunch with a bit of experience mixed in and as long as we continue with the new found vigour and we can lower the eyes kicking into the forward line to avoid Sicily we will take this one out with comfort. After their close loss I am hoping their spirits are a bit broken.

We have some pretty awesome seats to view this game, centre wing, mid tier, so the viewing will be good, let’s hope the result is too.

Go Lions by 40 points

 

[Grasshopper17]

Fagan mentioned in the presser that they may hold Bailey until after the bye to give him an extra week to recover.

How do we fit Bailey into our 23 right now? Hard to drop any of the 3 debutants in my opinion.

If it were up to me, I'd be giving McKenna a run in the VFL (his 2nd half v Richmond was better but fair dinkum it wanted to be), moving Rayner back into his position, and playing Bailey in Rayner's role up forward.

But if Bailey isn't right to go anyway I'm simply going Ryan in for Hipwood. Ryan probably needs to play closer to goal while Joe and Logan get up the ground a bit.

Would be nice to give Brain a full game... Hasn't been able to play any VFL the last 2 weeks so he's legit only played 2 quarters in 2 weeks. But again I'm not sure who you make sub. McKenna I guess, but I doubt Fages would do that. Noah "whipping boy" Answerth probably

 

[Dewyyyyy]

What would a likely team look like for you guys?!

 

[luthor]

Great preview but can we pls fix up the thread title

"Hawthorn" NOT "Hawthorne"

 

[Grasshopper17]

What would a likely team look like for you guys?!

If it's anything like the last 4 times we've played you... Bad. Very bad.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Those two are one of the reasons why we are looking like a different team , but it would be a crime not to put Lohmann in that group as well.
There run both ways have changed us, and for this reason I would not bring Zac in atm, unless Rayner makes way for him and that an't happening.
But that is the only way I see Zac improving us atm.
Things can change quicklky and we might see Zac is required.
But I wouldn't be upset if he didn't come in and was told to watch these three boys on how to tackle and run both ways.

Could not have summed up my thoughts any better. Agree 1000%.

 

[Dalions]

Great preview but can we pls fix up the thread title

"Hawthorn" NOT "Hawthorne"

Unless if one of the mods fixed it up, I don’t see an e in there. And if there was, preemptive text is a bitch.

 

[Nunez]

Unlesse if one of the modse fixede it up, I don’t see an e in there. Ande if there wase, preemptive text is a bitche.

Dalions your use of the letter E is astounding

 

[Dewyyyyy]

If it's anything like the last 4 times we've played you... Bad. Very bad.

I meant on paper you’ll be fine - good list

 

[Tom14]

How do we fit Bailey into our 23 right now? Hard to drop any of the 3 debutants in my opinion.

If it were up to me, I'd be giving McKenna a run in the VFL (his 2nd half v Richmond was better but fair dinkum it wanted to be), moving Rayner back into his position, and playing Bailey in Rayner's role up forward.

But if Bailey isn't right to go anyway I'm simply going Ryan in for Hipwood. Ryan probably needs to play closer to goal while Joe and Logan get up the ground a bit.

Would be nice to give Brain a full game... Hasn't been able to play any VFL the last 2 weeks so he's legit only played 2 quarters in 2 weeks. But again I'm not sure who you make sub. McKenna I guess, but I doubt Fages would do that. Noah "whipping boy" Answerth probably

Not likely to be an issue this week, but its a very easy swap for Bruce when Bailey is fit. Playing similar role, and Bruce's fitness is in question for mine.

McKenna is to be persisted with imo.

 

[vic_LION]

Does anyone know if there is a bay on level 1 you can sit in as GA members at Marvel?

 

[Elixuh]

Hoodoo game baby!

 

[StevoJenkins]

How do we fit Bailey into our 23 right now? Hard to drop any of the 3 debutants in my opinion.

If it were up to me, I'd be giving McKenna a run in the VFL (his 2nd half v Richmond was better but fair dinkum it wanted to be), moving Rayner back into his position, and playing Bailey in Rayner's role up forward.

But if Bailey isn't right to go anyway I'm simply going Ryan in for Hipwood. Ryan probably needs to play closer to goal while Joe and Logan get up the ground a bit.

Would be nice to give Brain a full game... Hasn't been able to play any VFL the last 2 weeks so he's legit only played 2 quarters in 2 weeks. But again I'm not sure who you make sub. McKenna I guess, but I doubt Fages would do that. Noah "whipping boy" Answerth probably

Bailey would replace Reville, Ah Chee would be moved to the wing, Sharp becomes the sub - as much as I love the guy. Answorth stays in the side. Answorth has been irreplaceable, especially with Starce and Kiddy out of the side plus McKenna being out of form.

Don't move Rayner to the back half. He either plays mid or forward, coaches need to decide on that one quickly. Silly that they can't decide what he is given we now have the ability to chuck him in the middle full-time.

I don't know if we have challenged the Hipwood ban, but if we did, I think we'd reduce it to a fine. Umps didn't notice it, so I don't think there was a lot in it. Pretty sure Hipwood got awarded a free kick for holding the ball.

Didn't watch the Crows game, so I can't comment on Brain. Haven't seen enough of him.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Bailey would replace Reville, Ah Chee would be moved to the wing, Sharp becomes the sub - as much as I love the guy.

Exhibits A, B and C your honour as to why Bailey can come back through the VFL, and get promoted when he demonstrates a willingness and ability to exert defensive pressure ie "the fundamentals".

He is not Dusty Martin or Harley Reid so as far as I'm concerned he's not good enough to warrant shifting 3 other guys out of their best positions.

 

[Tom14]

Exhibits A, B and C your honour as to why Bailey can come back through the VFL, and get promoted when he demonstrates a willingness and ability to exert defensive pressure ie "the fundamentals".

He is not Dusty Martin or Harley Reid so as far as I'm concerned he's not good enough to warrant shifting 3 other guys out of their best positions.

But it doesn't even take moving people out of position? He can just replace Bruce, sharp can stay rotating on the wing and Ah Chee stays forward. Very very simple swap.

I get Bailey's form was poor before the injury - but if we want to make any sort of charge we need him in the team.

I just don't buy that there is any point putting a player like him through the VFL if there is no injury management/fitness requirement. What does he learn at that level?

 

[Grasshopper17]

But it doesn't even take moving people out of position? He can just replace Bruce, sharp can stay rotating on the wing and Ah Chee stays forward. Very very simple swap.

I get Bailey's form was poor before the injury - but if we want to make any sort of charge we need him in the team.

I just don't buy that there is any point putting a player like him through the VFL if there is no injury management/fitness requirement. What does he learn at that level?

Hopefully he'd learn the importance of being able to defend and stick tackles as a crucial foundation of a successful team. Until he learns that and is able to apply that learning, he is a liability at senior level, sets a poor example to the younger players (of which there are now several more than there were only a month ago), and as such he can ply his trade at the lower level for the time being.

 

[Elixuh]

But it doesn't even take moving people out of position? He can just replace Bruce, sharp can stay rotating on the wing and Ah Chee stays forward. Very very simple swap.

I get Bailey's form was poor before the injury - but if we want to make any sort of charge we need him in the team.

I just don't buy that there is any point putting a player like him through the VFL if there is no injury management/fitness requirement. What does he learn at that level?

Agree. The only difference being I’m not as sure on who comes out for him. Imo it isn’t as obvious between Sharp and Reville.

The only other factor is Eric out for a week and lack of tall representation up forward. Ah Chee must stay up forward. I wouldn’t be absolutely against playing Bailey in the VFL for one week for seniors structure + to see if the mental reset of having to play VFL jolts him.

 

[Elixuh]

The two risks for this game are:

1. Gunners knows all of our tactics
2. Gunners kicks 10 goals

I’m considering not watching.

 

[martinson]

Starcevich and Bailey are best 22 on their best form without doubt. But the form of both has been patchy to say the least this year and you can't say we've gone backwards since they were injured. Without getting into the quality of the opposition we've structured up better the last 3 weeks and a lot of that has to do with new players prepared to do the donkey work and fringe ones like Ah Chee trying to establish his worth in a new spot. Lohmann is giving us a spark around the ground similar to Bailey except he chases and tackles.

If Bailey and Starcevich are 100% good to go they have enough credits to slip back in but the gap between them and some of the others isn't that wide and the rate of improvement of the younger players could conceivably be significant if they get the game time.

I realise Reville will likely miss but imo he stays in because he really shows signs of having something that we lack. Whether he can get his fitness up and keep improving is the unknown but I'd rather him with ball in hand than a couple of the regulars we've had of recent years.

 

[Nathan Barley]

Hopefully he'd learn the importance of being able to defend and stick tackles as a crucial foundation of a successful team. Until he learns that and is able to apply that learning, he is a liability at senior level, sets a poor example to the younger players (of which there are now several more than there were only a month ago), and as such he can ply his trade at the lower level for the time being.

That’s a good one; Zac Bailey is a liability

As if every other club wouldn’t be keen on picking him

Top 5 in our team for tackles and pressure acts in the grand final as well

 

[Elixuh]

Fort almost certainly comes in doesn’t he? We won’t risk O or Joe going down and either having no talk forward or Joe rucking the entire game

 

[martinson]

Yes I think it'll be Fort. Maybe Smith might have got a go if he wasn't injured. We don't have any like/like replacement for Hipwood.

 

[Tom14]

That’s a good one; Zac Bailey is a liability

As if everything other club wouldn’t be keen on picking him

I don't disagree that I'd like to see much more defensive effort out of Bailey.

Unfortunately, defensive application is not our biggest problem right now - it is getting our spluttering forward line going again. If we can keep a reasonably similar defensive structure and effort, but have better performance and talent forward, we have a better chance of winning.

At this stage we have to go on a run and win at least 5 games or say 7 of 8 to have a chance of hosting a home final or sneaking into 4th.

We don't have a chance of that by chucking our talented players in the reserves for 3 weeks to lEarn deFeNSiV3 Pr3SsUrE.

 

[martinson]

I don't disagree that I'd like to see much more defensive effort out of Bailey.

Unfortunately, defensive application is not our biggest problem right now - it is getting our spluttering forward line going again. If we can keep a reasonably similar defensive structure and effort, but have better performance and talent forward, we have a better chance of winning.

At this stage we have to go on a run and win at least 5 games or say 7 of 8 to have a chance of hosting a home final or sneaking into 4th.

We don't have a chance of that by chucking our talented players in the reserves for 3 weeks to lEarn deFeNSiV3 Pr3SsUrE.

Personally I'm looking to how we might go in '25 with some players potentially back and the newer ones we've tried lately whom we didn't really know would make it showing that they're at least capable of putting on significant pressure for spots.

But for AFL Clubs where you're still in the hunt for a Top 8 spot you throw everything at it , there's no tomorrow , so we'll play what we think is our best side and that will include Starcevich and Bailey.

Just sayin we don't have be as desperate about that now that we've seen replacements can play Senior footy.

 

[JasRulz63]

Fort almost certainly comes in doesn’t he? We won’t risk O or Joe going down and either having no talk forward or Joe rucking the entire game

I think so. Meek is one of the form ruckman in the competition at the moment.