Round 20 captain?

[Bomber Billy]

I've got a choice of:

Goddard
Selwood
Dal Santo
Bartel
Davis
Didak

I've been going with Selwood in recent weeks so unless someone convinces me otherwise I will probably keep it that way.

 

[Coach Bombay]

I have Ablett but am thinking of going someone else this week. Might have to take a risk or two.

Leaning towards Pendlebury against Richmond in particular but will decide tomorrow afternoon.

 

[adam1302]

I have Ablett but am thinking of going someone else this week. Might have to take a risk or two.

Leaning towards Pendlebury against Richmond in particular but will decide tomorrow afternoon.

hmm you could miss out on a 250

 

[Judd_Magic]

I may go Selwood or the SC maestro in G.Broughton.




PS. I have Ablett.....................

 

[Will.B.Worth.Da.Waite]

Yeh im in a massive dilemma. would have gone Selwood against any other team (even though I have Ablett), but was thinking about the Swans match ups and reckon Jack will take Ablett and Kirk will go to Selwood, and Kirk is a very good tagger.

Without turning this into an Ablett bashing thread I honestly think Ablett has been playing for the outside ball lately and is why his SC scores have dropped a little bit. The question is whether or not he wants to get his hands dirty against hte swans. If he does his points will be massive, if he doesn't I doubt he'll reach 100 knowing the way Swans games turn out

Maybe J. Brown? I too am seriously considering Broughton

 

[MadMac]

I'm out anyway, so I'll put Broughton as a captain. Couldn't do any worse than Abblet last week

 

[Clunk]

I'm out anyway, so I'll put Broughton as a captain. Couldn't do any worse than Abblet last week

You coulda picked Taylor Walker and doubled your score to -12!

 

[Dalzielling]

Thoughts on Pav as captain this week? Too exotic? Or worth considering?

Would be picking between Roo, Monty, Pav, Selwood, or Pendlebury. Possibly Murphy if I can't decide for a near certain 200+.

 

[hess]

I've done a reasonably comprehensive analysis - will seperate it into multiple posts and game by game, but a quick summary first.

Note, I can't guarantee that all the averages are correct but if wrong they shouldn't be substantially off.

Excluding Ablett, who is comprehensivley the best option unless you consider him to be struggling due to fitness/injury.

1. Pavlich
2. Goddard
3. Swan
4. Goodes
5. Selwood
Others worth considering: Riewoldt, Hayes, Brown, Priddis, Pendlebury, Cooney, Shaw and Deledio

 

[hess]

Hawthorn v Adelaide: MCG
Hodge
Average in last three years v Adelaide: 97
Average at MCG last 2 years: 103 –note effected by this years poor form
Recent form: Averages 75 in last 3 games, 101 since returning from injury
Last three games have been poor by his standards as has his year overall, and is a risky pick on that basis. He was outstanding against Collingwood in what looked to be a return to form but then was ineffective against Geelong – but in fairness, his last three games have included heavy tags by some of the best in Ling and Kornes, query though on lack of influence on game against an undermanned St Kilda side. Likely to cop a tag again this week and should be far better options available.

Franklin
Average in last three years v Adelaide: 67, only one score 100+
Average at MCG in last 2 years: 103
Recent form: Averages 83 last three, 109 in last 5.
Playing better now but with poor past record against Adelaide, particularly given Adelaide have been in good form recently is far too risky for captain.

Sewell
Average in last three yrs v Adelaide: 85
MCG Avg in last 2 yrs: 100, 116 this year.
Recent form: 99 last 3 games, 109 last 6.
Returning from injury makes him a query, but in outstanding form this year and aside from his last game against Port has consistently gathered around 30 disposals a game. Was a late withdrawal last week with a corked quad, so likely not to seriously effect his score.

Mitchell
Average in last three years v Adelaide: 83
MCG average last two years: 114
Recent form: 106 last 3, 95 last 6.
Outstanding form at the MCG and solid recent form but terrible record against Adelaide recently.

Goodwin
Average in last 3 yrs v Adelaide: 85, 70 in last three games/2 years.
MCG average last 2 years: 105
Recent form: 130 in last 3, 116 since returning from injury.
Outstanding recent form makes him worth considering.

 

[hess]

Richmond v Collingwood: MCG

Swan
Average in last 3 yrs v Richmond: 84
MCG Average last 2 years: 114, 131 this year
Recent form: 143 last three, has scored eleven consecutive 100’s including eight greater than 130
Absolutely outstanding form this season, especially at the MCG, and against a poor tigers side should be good for another big score.

Pendlebury
Average in last 3yrs v Richmond: 90
MCG Average last 2 years: 108, 115 this year
Recent form: 129 last three, 104 since returning from injury
Outstanding recent form makes him a great captain option.

Didak
Only played Richmond once in the last three years for a score of 95
MCG Average last 2 years: 97
Recent form: 114 last three, averaged 147 between rounds 11-15
Is capable of big scores and in what should be a comfortable Collingwood win he should score well.

Davis
Average in last 3 years v Richmond: 93
MCG Average last 2 years: 94
Recent form: 110 last three.
Very inconsistent, capable of enormous and terrible scores. Probably safer options around but wouldn’t surprise to see him score big, particularly if Didak cops a heavy tag.

Shaw
Average in last 3 years v Richmond: 104
MCG Average last 2 years: 92
Recent form: 124 in last 3.
Back to his best form and should score well but safer/more consistent options are available.

Deledio
Average in last 3 years v Pies: 114
MCG Average last 2 years: 100
Recent form: 120 avg last 3.
In good form, and has a good record against the Pies and at the MCG. Safe option to score 100-130.

 

[hess]

West Coast v North: Subiaco

Priddis
Average last three years v North: 132
Subiaco Average last 2 years: 102
Recent form: 105 last three, 111 last three home games.
Solid captain option with low risk.

Harvey
Average last three years v WC: 62
Subiaco Average last 2 yrs: 94 (only 1 game), overall averages 90 there
Recent form: 92 in last three.





Brisbane v Western Bulldogs: Gabba

Brown:
Average last 3 yrs v Dogs: 99
Average last 2 yrs at Gabba: 100, last 4 this year averaging 133
Recent form: 113 in last 3, 116 in last 9
Kicked 0.5 against Bombers last week and could easily of scored 100+ with better accuracy. This week playing the Dogs with a top 4 spot on the line, at home at the Gabba and in exceptional form expect to see an excellent game from JB.

Black:
Average last 3 yrs v Dogs: 88
Average last 2yrs at Gabba: 113
Recent form: 97 last three, 126 last three at Gabba
Solid recent form but a far superior scorer traditionally at the Gabba, only one of the last three was at the Gabba which was 120. Only average recent form against the Dogs.

Power:
Average last 3yrs v Dogs: 97
Average last 2yrs at Gabba: 109
Recent form: 90 last 3
OK option but better available

Boyd:
Average last 3 yrs v Lions: 107
Average last 2 yrs at Gabba: 96
Recent form: 104 last three
Stepped up in form this year and a solid option.

Cooney:
Average last 3yrs v Lions: 142
Average last 2yrs at Gabba: 125
Recent form: 82 last 3, 93 last 6.
Tremendous record against Brisbane but in poor form recently, although has been quite good apart from the 46 against St Kilda he’s scored 6 100’s in the last 10 and 8 scores of 90+. If fully fit past history would suggest a huge score this week.

 

[hess]

Sydney v Geelong: ANZ Stadium
Ablett:
Average last 3 years v Sydney: 177
Average last 2yrs at ANZ: only 1 game there recently for 155.
Recent form: 112 last three.
A score of only 81 last week has many questioning the fitness of Ablett, but he’s been playing so it can’t be that bad and he’s been named again this week. His ‘slump’ also coincides with Geelong’s sub-par (by their standards) recent form. Difficult call for his owners, but even If he is carrying an injury his recent form is the equal of most.

Selwood:
Average last 3yrs v Sydney: 88
Average last 2yrs at ANZ: only the 1 game there for 72
Recent form: 145 last three, 131 last 6
Last game against Sydney scored 140 and would put much more value on his recent form which is exceptional.

Bartel:
Average last 3yrs v Sydney: 109
Average last 2yrs at ANZ: 1 game for 124, scored 90 there in 2006
Recent form: 96 last three.
Good record against Sydney but with only average recent form you’re likely to have better choices available.

Corey:
Average last 3yrs v Sydney: 103
Average at ANZ: two scores there, 95 in 08 and 81 in 06
Recent form: 106 in last 3, has scored 12 100+ scores from 17 games this year. Consistent but probably better choices available.

Goodes:
Average last 3yrs v Geelong: 116
Average at ANZ last 2yrs: 115
Recent form: 130 – highly skewed by 223 score last week.
Has a very good record against Geelong and at ANZ, and when he scores big its enormous with scores of 223, 183, 166 and 160 recorded this year. In his 250th game and coming of the highest score of the season, the query is his new role at CHF where he dominated last week but it was Richmond. This week against the Cats could be a completely different story.

Melbourne v Fremantle: MCG

Pavlich:
Average last 3yrs v Demons: 154
Average last 2yrs at MCG: 135 excluding the 21 there this year which is where he got injured.
Recent form: 108 last 3, including a poor game last week v Port where he only scored 69
History suggests if he’s in any kind of fitness and form he will dominate this week.

 

[hess]

Port v Carlton: AAMI

Kornes:
Average last 3yrs v Carlton: 119
Average last 2yrs at AAMI: 93
Recent form: 87 avg in last 3
Good record makes him worthy of consideration but probably have better options.

Judd:
Average last 3yrs v Port: 122
Average last 2yrs at AAMI: 100
Recent form: 96 avg in last 3
Solid recent form and good record against Port make him worth some consideration.

Murphy:
Average last 3yrs v Port: 92
Average last 2yrs at AAMI: 87
Recent form: 116 avg last 3
Would be a fairly safe bet to assume Murphy will score another 100 this week. If you want to play it safe he’s about as safe as it gets on form this year.

St Kilda v Essendon: Ethihad

Dal Santo:
Average last 3yrs v Ess: 105
Average last 2yrs at Eth: 116
Recent form: 103 avg last 3
Solid option.

Goddard:
Average last 3yrs v Ess: 122
Average last 2yrs at Eth: 116, 126 last 5 games there
Recent form: 138 avg last 3
Tremendous captain option assuming full fitness.

Hayes:
Average last 3yrs v Ess: 122
Average last 2yrs at Eth: 108, 120 this year
Recent form: 117 last three

Montagna:
Average last 3yrs v Ess: 94
Average last 2yrs at Eth: 113, 119 this year
Recent form: 113 avg last 3.

Riewoldt:
Average last 3yrs v Ess: 124
Average last 2yrs at Eth: 113, 124 last 5 games there
Recent form: 124 avg last 3

 

[Biggie]

Nicely done Hess

 

[Sunday Red]

Goddard for me, Ablett vice.

 

[alternatevista]

Great write-up Hess. Goddard, Roo and Pav all seem to be my best options but the StK boys were rested last week and Pav picked up a knock. Hopefully Goddard will be fully rested and pumped up to dominate.

Someone needs to find out if Broughton set himself as captain again this week, if so I will definitely pick him!

 

[hess]

Great write-up Hess. Goddard, Roo and Pav all seem to be my best options but the StK boys were rested last week and Pav picked up a knock. Hopefully Goddard will be fully rested and pumped up to dominate.

Someone needs to find out if Broughton set himself as captain again this week, if so I will definitely pick him!

I tried to ignore a lot of the injury related external factors as I think thats predominantly an individual judgement call, exactly how serious the 'injuries' to each St Kilda player were and whether they will continue on from where they left off in terms of scoring is hard to judge. Essendon are not in great form though and should provide little opposition or pressure to the stars from the Saints.
Same with Pavlich, I'm going to assume he is fit to play because Freo have little reason to play him if he isn't and on that assumption its then hard not to make him captain. As for the counter argument though, he averaged around 120 against Port in 2006-2009 but only scored 69 last week.
I do concede there are good cases for any of the top 5 or 6 options though.

 

[Toadvine]

Hmm Swan, Goddard or Abblett. I think I'll go swan because he doesn't have any clouds over him.

 

[Millington Magic]

Leaning towards Gibbs or Pendlebury.

 

[footyfan_25]

My options include Goddard, Broughton, Ablett, Selwood, Bartel, Goodes, Pendlebury Riewoldt.

At this stage Riewoldt. Can see him kicking a bag against Bombers backs.

Mind you will be the 1st time this year I have not gone Ablett

 

[BigSledge]

At this stage Riewoldt. Can see him kicking a bag against Bombers backs

Yes I can but it should be of note that not all power forwards have dominated against the pressumably weak Essendon backs. Fev struggled last time so did Bradshaw and Brown last week (although Brown should have killed them if he kicked straight)

I think Riewoldt is better and can rise above it though.

My options are Goddard, NDS, Riewoldt, Ablett, Pendles, Judd, Broughton or even ROK who could light it up against Geelong.

But the fact Ablett has scored 250+ against them when they were a better side weighs on my mind

 

[PK]

Yes I can but it should be of note that not all power forwards have dominated against the pressumably weak Essendon backs. Fev struggled last time so did Bradshaw and Brown last week (although Brown should have killed them if he kicked straight)

I think Riewoldt is better and can rise above it though.

My options are Goddard, NDS, Riewoldt, Ablett, Pendles, Judd, Broughton or even ROK who could light it up against Geelong.

But the fact Ablett has scored 250+ against them when they were a better side weighs on my mind

They all play closer to goal than Riewoldt though. I think Kosi will have a big game and kick more goals than Riewoldt. Someone always kicks a bag against us or has the opportunity to due to poor kicking.

 

[Sunday Red]

I forget who it was (maybe Hooker?), but a Bomber defender held Roo quite well in Round 8.

 

[Parasite]

Melbourne taking Paul Johnson in as their ruckman against the man mountain. Tanks for coming.