Round 5 Tips and Crowd Expectations

[StevenwellerHFC]

Brisbane vs. Richmond 5pts 19k

Collingwood vs. North Melbourne 23pts 46k

Sydney vs. Fremantle 40pts 21k

Essendon vs. St Kilda 21pts 40k

West Coast vs. Port Adelaide 40pts 42k

Adelaide vs. GWS 4pts 37k

Melbourne vs. Gold Coast 18pts 16k

Western Bulldogs vs. Carlton 27pt 25k

Geelong vs Hawthorn 82k

 

[Bobby_]

Brisbane v Richmond 45pts 18K
Collingwood v North Melbourne 2pts 52K
Sydney v Fremantle 12pts 26K
Essendon v St Kilda 86pts 39K
West Coast v Port Adelaide 5pts 40K
Adelaide v GWS 29pts 30K
Melbourne v Gold Coast 31pts 20K
Western Bulldogs v Carlton 17pts 35K
Geelong v Hawthorn 26pts 85K

 

[workhorse]

Brisbane vs Richmond: Richmond by 28 points: 23,185 @ Gabba
With both teams struggling I can see this being an ugly affair early on. Lions are shot with injuries and the Tigers should run out victors.

Collingwood vs North Melbourne: Collingwood by 16 points: 52,491 @ MCG
Should be a good game. North are up and about and Collingwood have shown that they are a good team after the Round 1 loss to Freo. A 6-day break coming back from interstate will hurt North, and I think after two hard games, they won't be able to sustain it for four quarters. I think the Pies will close it out better and pull away late.

Sydney vs Fremantle: Fremantle by 6 points: 25,005 @ SCG
No doubt Sydney will respond after this weeks performance, however, Fremantle are a great team and will get the job done in a tight one, whilst Sydney's woes will continue.

Essendon vs St.Kilda: Essendon by 53 points: 40,582 @ Etihad Stadium
I don't think St.Kilda will be as poor as this week but it won't be enough. Bombers to cruise home here.

West Coast vs Port Adelaide: West Coast by 4 points: 36,018 @ Pattersons Stadium
Very tough one this game. Port, bar their last quarter fade-out versus North, have been outstanding. West Coast have looked a top-4 team since the start of pre-season up until this week. I think West Coast with the home advantage - it could go either way however.

Adelaide vs GWS Giants: Adelaide by 20 points: 37,942 @ Adelaide Oval
Adelaide seem to have clicked into gear but face a tricky Giants outfit. I think GWS will really show up to play but the Crows on their home turf should be too good.

Melbourne vs Gold Coast: Gold Coast by 34 points: 24,499 @ MCG
Will be closer than last years encounter but the talent of the Gold Coast will see them home.

Western Bulldogs vs Carlton: Carlton by 12 points: 28,341
All due respect to Bulldogs fans, but I just can't see Carlton losing again. I'll happily be proven wrong, however.

Geelong vs Hawthorn: Draw: 81,824 @ MCG
Honestly can't tip a winner. Geelong won 11 or 12 straight, but then the Hawks broke the duck. Will their be a new streak?? I'm not sure so I'm sitting on the fence.

 

[TubbsFarquhar]

I don't think the Crows will get 48,000 to Adelaide Oval this week but they should easily get more than 38,000.

I doubt it, shit timeslot, Easter Sunday against the lowest drawing team in the comp. 35K would be a good turnout.

 

[ok.crows]

I doubt it, shit timeslot, Easter Sunday against the lowest drawing team in the comp. 35K would be a good turnout.

The opposition side really only makes much of a difference if it is Port or Collingwood. Round 3 at Adelaide Oval against Sydney saw 47,426 attendance on a Saturday afternoon.

 

[Big Fresh]

Brisbane v Richmond 14 points

Collingwood vs North Melbourne 20 points

Sydney vs Fremantle 37 points

Essendon vs St Kilda 63 points

West Coast vs Port Adelaide 10 points

Adelaide vs GWS 24 points

Melbourne vs Gold Coast 35 points

Western Bulldogs vs Carlton 19 points

Geelong vs Hawthorn 8 points

 

[akneal]

Because Wells, Dal Santo and Harvey aren't classy?
We've got a good mix of class and grunt in the guts now with those 3 providing the polish, and Cunners + Greenwood + Ziebell (should play this week) doing the heavy lifting.

Yes they are..... But aren't they aren't the quality of Pendlebury, Beams and Swan.

 

[samFFC]

Tougghhhhh week - subject to change!

Brisbane v Richmond 18pts 22k
Collingwood v North Melbourne 11pts 55k (should be a classic)
Sydney v Fremantle 35pts 27k (should pump them)
Essendon v St Kilda 59pts 36k
West Coast v Port Adelaide 3pts 39k (another great one!)
Adelaide v GWS 34pts 34k (absolute must-win)
Melbourne v Gold Coast 27pts 20k
Western Bulldogs v Carlton 15pts 32k
Geelong v Hawthorn 9pts 79k (always pick Geelong)

 

[samFFC]

Geelong v Hawthorn 26pts 85K

 

[manicmagpie]

Tigers by 37 crowd 22,345
North by 23 crowd 33,128
Dockers by 77. Crowd 24,198
Bombers by 33. Crowd 29,777
Port by 25 crowd 27,598
Giants by 2 crowd 19,526
Suns by 67 crowd 18,562
Dogs by 29 crowd 26,123
Hawks by 32 crowd 68,679

Wow, you really are a pessimist as far as crowds go aren't you? Most of those are at least 10k under what would be reasonable.

Collingwood for example have never had a home crowd that low at the G against a Vic team.

 

[tazaa]

Wow, you really are a pessimist as far as crowds go aren't you? Most of those are at least 10k under what would be reasonable.

Collingwood for example have never had a home crowd that low at the G against a Vic team.

Minimum 60k there at the G next Saturday. No local footy and good weather predicted. Neutrals and alike will attend.

 

[manicmagpie]

Minimum 60k there at the G next Saturday. No local footy and good weather predicted. Neutrals and alike will attend.

Hope for 60k, but a minimum should be 50k. The only 2 things to detract from the crowd will be that it's in Easter with many people away for the weekend, and that neutrals would probably opt for the Geel-Haw game. Otherwise it's set up nicely for a good crowd.

Hopefully this weekend sees the start of a run of big crowds, with the Easter Monday game, ANZAC Day and Coll-Carl in consecutive weeks.

 

[tazaa]

Hope for 60k, but a minimum should be 50k. The only 2 things to detract from the crowd will be that it's in Easter with many people away for the weekend, and that neutrals would probably opt for the Geel-Haw game. Otherwise it's set up nicely for a good crowd.

Hopefully this weekend sees the start of a run of big crowds, with the Easter Monday game, ANZAC Day and Coll-Carl in consecutive weeks.

The Easter break will be the only thing to detract from the crowd figure. 2 teams in form, likely finalist will be a ripper game.

 

[LeoMessi]

Brisbane Vs Richmond 36pts 17K

Collingwood Vs North Melbourne 15pts 51K

Sydney Vs Fremantle 50pt 24K

Essendon Vs St Kilda 60pts 47K

West Coast Vs Port Adelaide 5pts 43K

Adelaide Vs GWS 45pts 40K

Melbourne Vs Gold Coast 40pts 23K

Western Bulldogs Vs Carlton 39pts 29K

Geelong Vs Hawthorn 15pts 73K

 

[Pal22]

Brisbane vs Richmond - Appears like a soft kill for Tigers but if they turn up just expecting to get the win then that could spell danger for them - Tigers by 20pts
Collingwood vs North Melbourne - If this game is as half good as the last meeting we are in for a ripper, winning margin will be close - Roos by 6pts
Sydney vs Fremantle - Some worrying signs for the Swans and can't see how they kick a winning score vs Dockers defence - Dockers by 13pts
Essendon vs St Kilda - Tough coming back Perth on a 6 day break but Bombers returning players should get them over the line - Bombers by 33pts
West Coast vs Port Adelaide - Eagles back at home will be tough, but Power's fast running game could suit Patersons to a tee - Power by 9pts
Adelaide vs GWS Giants - Giants doing nothing wrong but Crows should be able to get their first win at their new home ground - Crows by 21pts
Melbourne vs Gold Coast - Rare chance for the Dees to get back-to-back wins but won't take risk in changing my tip - Suns by 7pts
Western Bulldogs vs Carlton - Must win for Blues but Dogs are hitting good form and think they make it 3 in a row - Dogs by 15pts
Geelong vs Hawthorn - Hawks are white hot and should win, but never tip against my team - Cats by 3pts

Crowd Predictions
Brisbane vs Richmond @ GABBA - 21,000
Collingwood vs North Melbourne @ MCG - 54,000
Sydney vs Fremantle @ SCG - 23,000
Essendon vs St Kilda @ ES - 41,000
West Coast vs Port Adelaide @ PS - 35,000
Adelaide vs GWS @ AO - 39,000
Melbourne vs Gold Coast @ MCG - 16,000
W.Bulldogs vs Carlton @ ES - 28,000
Geelong vs Hawthorn @ MCG - 74,000

 

[gopies1981]

The pies and Roos will be the hardest game to tip for me. As for the crowd will be expecting around 55,000.

 

[TheKanga]

Brisbane vs. Richmond - by 29pts - (20k)
Collingwood vs. North Melbourne - by 32pts (61k)
Sydney vs. Fremantle - by 34pts (22k)
West Coast vs. Port Adelaide - by 22pts (40k)
Essendon vs. St Kilda - by 17pts (37k)
Adelaide vs. GWS - by 42pts (35k)
Melbourne vs. Gold Coast - by 30pts (26k)
Western Bulldogs vs. Carlton - by 11pts (29k)
Geelong vs. Hawthorn - by 16pts (60k)

 

[Collingwoodity]

I think North will get up based on the matchups. If this was at Eithad they would be a sure thing. MCG might help us a bit.

 

[Hawkk]

MCC estimates for this weeks MCG games...

Collingwood V North Melbourne - 53,000
Melbourne V Gold Coast - 18,000
Geelong V Hawthorn - 70,000

 

[brad]

MCC estimates for this weeks MCG games...

Collingwood V North Melbourne - 53,000
Melbourne V Gold Coast - 18,000
Geelong V Hawthorn - 70,000

Ridiculous Geelong Vs Hawthorn is only expected to get 70K yet there is NO General Admission

 

[Hawkk]

Ridiculous Geelong Vs Hawthorn is only expected to get 70K yet there is NO General Admission

This. No MCG home + away fixture aside from ANZAC Day and maybe Dreamtime should be predetermined as fully ticketed (it should be on the basis of ticket sales leading up to the match)

The last 4 Easter Monday Hawthorn V Geelong fixtures

Rd 1 2013: Hawthorn V Geelong 76300
Rd 2 2012: Geelong V Hawthorn 69231
Rd 5 2011: Hawthorn V Geelong 78579
Rd 2 2010: Hawthorn V Geelong 68628
Average: 73184

Geelong home games historically draw lower numbers than Hawks home games (last year aside) but given that both sides are 4-0 and the epic prelim last season, this game really should be in the 75,000 to 85,000 range.

That said almost all Category A games have drawn far lower than corresponding fixtures in the previous season. Richmond V Carlton (-15,000), Essendon V Hawthorn (-6,000), Collingwood V Geelong (-3,000), Essendon V Carlton (-20,000) and Richmond V Collingwood (-18,000)

The only high drawing fixture that has drawn a greater attendance was North Melbourne V Essendon in round 1 (+8,000).

Category C games are a different kettle of fish, most lower drawing games (C grade) are significantly up on the same fixture the year previously

 

[Meow]

Will be a few upsets this week IMO.....

Brisbane v Richmond 4pts 22K
Collingwood v North Melbourne 9pts 51K
Sydney v Fremantle 23pts 30K
Essendon v St Kilda 37pts 41K
West Coast v Port Adelaide 11pts 39K
Adelaide v GWS 44pts 33K
Melbourne v Gold Coast 14pts 23K
Western Bulldogs v Carlton 35pts 32K
Geelong v Hawthorn 5pts 68K

 

[Matthew_Lloyd]

Richmond by 45 points
North by 3 points
Freo by 26 points
Port by 10 points
Essendon by 18 points
Adelaide by 38 points
Gold Coast by 11 points
Carlton by 5 points
Geelong by 2 points

 

[TubbsFarquhar]

Really surprised at the amount of people tipping Carlton. They've given me absolutely no reason to tip them whatsoever.

 

[Meow]

Ridiculous Geelong Vs Hawthorn is only expected to get 70K yet there is NO General Admission

It's all about generating as much revenue from ticket sales as possible. The AFL couldn't care less about attendances as long as they're raking in more $$$ from their exhorbitantly-priced 'seat categories', not to mention the revenue from TV networks. Crowds and fans both take a back seat now that they're happy with this money-grubbing approach.