Rudd over the line?

[DaveW]

From the AAP wire:

LABOR NUMBERS FACTBOX (REISSUING, UPDATING)
How Labor MPs are expected to vote in tomorrow's leadership ballot.
Rudd's camp claims to have 46 votes, but Beazley's office says the real number is 37.
Beazley's camp claims to have 42 votes, but Rudd's camp says the figure is 31.


RUDD/GILLARD - 46

Kevin Rudd
Julia Gillard
Chris Bowen
Anna Burke*
Tony Burke
Anthony Byrne
Kim Carr
Ann Corcoran
Simon Crean
Trish Crossin
Michael Danby**
Justine Elliot
Annette Ellis
Laurie Ferguson
Joel Fitzgibbon
Michael Forshaw
Peter Garrett
Steve Gibbons
Jill Hall
Chris Hayes*
Kelly Hoare
Harry Jenkins**
Catherine King*
Linda Kirk
Kirsten Livermore**
Kate Lundy
Gavin Marshall
Robert McClelland
Jan McLucas
Bob McMullan
Claire Moore**
Kerry O'Brien*
Brendan O'Connor**
Gavan O'Connor
Roger Price
Harry Quick
Robert Ray
Nicola Roxon
Bob Sercombe
Nick Sherry
Warren Snowdon
Ursula Stephens
Lindsay Tanner
Kelvin Thomson
Maria Vamvakinou
Ruth Webber*

*Beazley's office disputes this and says these people will back him.
**Beazley camp says these people are undecided.


BEAZLEY/MACKLIN - 31
Kim Beazley
Jenny Macklin
D|ck Adams
Anthony Albanese
Sharon Bird
Mark Bishop
George Campbell
Stephen Conroy
Craig Emerson
Chris Evans
Martin Ferguson
Steve Georganas
Jennie George
Michael Hatton
John Hogg
Annette Hurley
Steve Hutchins
Julia Irwin
Carmen Lawrence
Joe Ludwig
Daryl Melham
John Murphy
Tanya Plibersek
Helen Polley
Bernie Ripoll
Rod Sawford
Stephen Smith
Glenn Sterle
Wayne Swan
Kim Wilkie
Penny Wong


UNDECIDED - 11
Arch Bevis
Carol Brown
Graham Edwards
Kate Ellis
John Faulkner
Alan Griffin
Sharon Grierson
Duncan Kerr
Anne McEwen
Julie Owens
Dana Wortley

TOTAL: 88

 

[bmwofoz]

Several interesting names amongst the undecided.

 

[DaveW]

Not that they'll matter if these numbers are correct and Rudd already has a majority. But let's have a brief look at the undecideds anyway...

Arch Bevis - voted Beazley in 2003. But is a factional ally of Rudd's.

Carol Brown - Freshman MP

Graham Edwards - surprised he's in the undecided category. Everything I've read paints him as a Beazley loyalist.

Kate Ellis - Freshman MP

John Faulkner - voted for Latham in 2003. But is a mate of big Beazley-backer Anthony Albanese.

Alan Griffin - voted Beazley in 2003. But was Rudd's "numbers man" in his aborted leadership run early last year. Had his preselection under threat (and narrowly survived) earlier this year when Beazley was taking a "hands off" approach.

Sharon Grierson - voted Latham in 2003. Factionally ally of staunch Beazley-critic Laurie Ferguson.

Duncan Kerr - voted Beazley in 2003.

Anne McEwen - Freshman MP. Beazley famously couldn't remember her when asked to name all five SA ALP senators in a radio interview.

Julie Owens - Freshman MP. Another in the Laurie Ferguson faction.

Dana Wortley - Freshman MP. At least Beazley remembered her name.

 

[CharlieG]

Edwards has stuck like a limpet to Beazley since he entered parliament. He'll vote for the Bomber.

Penny Wong, Tanya Plibersek and Carmen Lawrence should have a good hard look at themselves.

 

[DaveW]

Several interesting names amongst the undecided.

I'm more surprised by some of the names in the Rudd column.

Robert Ray!! And the Beazley camp isn't even contesting that one.

 

[CharlieG]

I'm more surprised by some of the names in the Rudd column.

Robert Ray!! And the Beazley camp isn't even contesting this one.

That could have as much to do with Conroy as anything else. Those two aren't particularly chummy anymore, are they?

 

[bmwofoz]

I'm more surprised by some of the names in the Rudd column.

Robert Ray!! And the Beazley camp isn't even contesting that one.

Laurie Ferguson is in the Rudd camp and several of his faction are undecided.

Why is Ray a surprise?

 

[DaveW]

Laurie Ferguson is in the Rudd camp and several of his faction are undecided.

Why is Ray a surprise?

Ray and Beazley were Hawke loyalists to the death.

More recently, Ray famously undermined Mark Latham.

I just assumed the Fat Indian would've stuck with Kim.

 

[bmwofoz]

Edwards has stuck like a limpet to Beazley since he entered parliament. He'll vote for the Bomber.

Penny Wong, Tanya Plibersek and Carmen Lawrence should have a good hard look at themselves.

Why should these two have a look at themselves. Penny Wong, Tanya Plibersek,

Lawrence should be a Beazley backer, Their seats a next to one another

 

[CharlieG]

Why should these two have a look at themselves. Penny Wong, Tanya Plibersek,

Lawrence should be a Beazley backer, Their seats a next to one another

These three are supposed to be leading progressives. No 'progressive' should be voting for Beazley and Macklin ahead of Rudd and Gillard.

 

[DaveW]

Lawrence should be a Beazley backer, Their seats a next to one another

Heh - voting based on geography. Maybe Swan should be backing Rudd then.

Actually Beazley does rather well with WA. Only Webber (disputed) in Rudd's column and Edwards (who should back Bomber) undecided.

Not so much Rudd with Queensland though. Union heavy Bill Ludwig sticking fat with Beazley.

Victoria appears to be Rudd's real strength.

 

[Dry Rot]

Edwards has stuck like a limpet to Beazley since he entered parliament. He'll vote for the Bomber.

Penny Wong, Tanya Plibersek and Carmen Lawrence should have a good hard look at themselves.

What do you expect from Plibersek? She's a goose.

 

[Dry Rot]

From the AAP wire:

LABOR NUMBERS FACTBOX (REISSUING, UPDATING)
How Labor MPs are expected to vote in tomorrow's leadership ballot.
Rudd's camp claims to have 46 votes, but Beazley's office says the real number is 37.
Beazley's camp claims to have 42 votes, but Rudd's camp says the figure is 31.

Re the undecideds, will momentum play a role? ie swing them to Rudd for no other reason?

 

[rugmop]

Take this as being totally unsubstantiated, but I just had a phone call from my mate whose ex-missus works in the office of one of the primemovers behind Rudd's challenge. She says Rudd is over the line. Whether this confidence is misplaced or not, I don't know. However, the Rudd camp's predictions of a win seem not to be just in the hope of them becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.

 

[DaveW]

Re the undecideds, will momentum play a role? ie swing them to Rudd for no other reason?

Wouldn't surprise me.

A resounding win looks better from a PR standpoint. For the party that is.

And it never hurts to be on-side with the leader.

 

[Dry Rot]

Beauty - hope you're right.

I never want to hear Beazley again. Hope he retires to the backbench.

Ditto I hope Smith and Swan get menial portfolios.

 

[Dry Rot]

Wouldn't surprise me.

A resounding win looks better from a PR standpoint. For the party that is.

And it never hurts to be on-side with the leader.

Yes, makes sense. And a smart personal move.

 

[DaveW]

BEAZLEY/MACKLIN - 31
Rod Sawford

Hmmm.

Hadn't noticed this inclusion when I originally posted the article, but Sawford is most definitely a Rudd man.

If that's the only mistake then it's Rudd 47 Beazley 30.

 

[Dry Rot]

Hmmm.

Hadn't noticed this inclusion when I originally posted the article, but Sawford is most definitely a Rudd man.

If that's the only mistake then it's Rudd 47 Beazley 30.

What is/how good is the source for these names and numbers?

 

[DaveW]

What is/how good is the source for these names and numbers?

Well going by what they put out earlier, it looks like AAP have got a list from the Rudd camp and published it.

Then they've checked with the Beazley camp, found the disputes, and reproduced the list. This time with a whole lot of asterisks.

To me it looks pretty right. A lot of MPs have publicly declared their support one way or the other and it tallies with that list. But Sawford's inclusion in Beazley's column is a real shocker, he's been anti-Beazley for a long time. Maybe it was just one error in translation.

 

[Bombers_Forever]

Does anyone really care? The media are the ones who love this, the average person probably doesn't care. Will the result actually chance how people vote? Probably not.

The main question is if Rudd gets up, will enough voters actually choose Labor over the Coalition?

 

[rick James]

Does anyone really care? The media are the ones who love this, the average person probably doesn't care. Will the result actually chance how people vote? Probably not.

The main question is if Rudd gets up, will enough voters actually choose Labor over the Coalition?

It will change how I vote.

I'd be going with The Greens if Beazley is leader, with Rudd I'll vote Labor.

My two favourite politicians are Rudd and Costello. So if we can just axe Howard somehow (preferably with an actual axe) I'll be stoked.

 

[Daytripper]

It will change how I vote.

I'd be going with The Greens if Beazley is leader, with Rudd I'll vote Labor.

My two favourite politicians are Rudd and Costello. So if we can just axe Howard somehow (preferably with an actual axe) I'll be stoked.

But effectively your vote hasn't changed.

Your Greens vote will just get passed on to Labor anyway.

 

[The Dice Man]

Great. So next election we'll have a choice between John Howard, and John Howard.

 

[MightyFighting]

But effectively your vote hasn't changed.

Your Greens vote will just get passed on to Labor anyway.

He's a young liberal, so I guess he'd be more likely to vote:

[1] Green
[2] Liberal