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State Focus SA 2020 - U18 Game Notes and Draft Rankings

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I wouldn't be surprised if Carlton pulled the trigger on Durdin with one of their picks in the 30's but the fact that it's Durdin vs Rowe suggests to me that this would be in relation to their Rookie selection.

Which way you think they'll go
 
What a good draft looks like for each club

I thought I'd just share some final thoughts about what I believe a good draft looks like for each of the clubs. For the purpose of this exercise it's worth explaining that I typically lean towards best player available and only prioritise needs in circumstances where there is little that splits prospects at a certain selection. If I rate certain players and they fulfill a need outside of the range of a selection I would prefer to trade up (or down) rather than reach on a prospect that I don't rate. You'll see some common names come up throughout the post so it won't be too hard to work out which players I rate highly.

Adelaide
1. Getting in Logan McDonald or Elijah Hollands with pick 1 (or 2) and adding a classy user with their second first rounder like Bruhn or Macrae would be ideal. Perkins should also be considered with their second pick if he's still on the board and Bruhn and Macrae are not available.
2. Selecting any suspected first round midfielders if available at 22 is a must (Powell, Berry, Carroll) and adding a classy small forward/midfielder like Laurie or Ginnivan would be a good selection in that range. Eddie Ford should be a consideration if that sliding midfielder is not available.
3. No NGA selections in the National Draft.

Brisbane
1. Matching a bid for Coleman after their first pick would be a win to free up pick 25 to be used on the best available talent. I would like a bid on Brandon Walker here but that would likely be matched. Bailey Laurie, Brodie Lake and Caleb Poulter should all be considered.
2. Nabbing either Neale, Heath or Lane as a project ruckman would be a good win late.

Carlton
1. Selecting talent that has a good opportunity to transition to the level as a role-player is key here, rather than swinging for the fences and taking a risk on a high ceiling/low basement prospect. Laurie, Ginnivan, Lake, and Isiah Winder should all be considered in the 30's.
2. Balance needs vs best available with late selection (if used). Some key position depth could be an option if Liam McMahon or Josh Treacy is available. Hard to argue with many selections this late.

Collingwood
1. Get two picks in the first round before the Reef McInnes selection. If that means trading up to Essendon or Adelaide's picks and trading out future picks then so be it. 2 first round selections + McInnes is a must given the players that have been moved out through the trade period.

Essendon
1. If Essendon really do rate Braeden Campbell, Lachie Jones or Reef McInnes at any of their selections then call them with the first selection and make the clubs pay to match the bid. There is little point bidding with the second or third of the consecutive picks unless some other value can be extracted.
2. In the unlikely event that McDonald, Hollands, Thilthorpe, Grainger-Barrass or Phillips slide then pouncing on one of them is a huge win. If the first five selections go as expected and all/any bids are matched then Bruhn or Macrae should be taken.
3. Perkins is a good option with their second pick and this should cool the Bombers interest in Oliver Henry who should be passed on.
4. The third pick in the first round can be offered in a trade with Collingwood or GWS for multiple picks (one would need to be a future) or used to take the next highest player on the draft board. It would be hard to fault Essendon reaching on Reid or Cox given that key position talent is such a need, even though I don't rate either inside the first round. My preference would be the other of Macrae/Bruhn, especially with Brand and Eyre joining as NGA selections.
5. Match Cody Brand and Josh Eyre with any selection outside the top 30.

Fremantle
1. Avoiding Chapman with the first round selection is important. I believe there will be better players that are also greater needs available at that selection. Jack Carroll should be strongly considered as should Tanner Bruhn or Finlay Macrae if available.
2. Match any bid for Brandon Walker that comes after their first selection.
3. Consider matching a Western bid after 35. This would have to be assessed on draft night with consideration to who is available on the board as the flexibility to trade up could also be advantageous.
4. Consider a small forward with remaining selections. Ginnivan if available, Tyler Brockman, Seamus Mitchell and Corey Durdin all options.

Geelong
1. Adding a young midfielder, Tom Highmore or Kaine Baldwin would be a win for Geelong at their first selection. Highmore brings immediate help in defence and Baldwin enters a really good situation if selected here.
2. Selecting talent that has a good opportunity to transition to the level as a role-player is key with their two later selections. Malachy Carruthers, Luke Edwards, Seamus Mitchell, Tyler Brockman and Charlie Lazzaro should all be considered.

Gold Coast
1. Take whichever of the consensus top 5 is available. If Phillips is considered too much of a flight risk then Perkins, Macrae and Bruhn should all be considered.

GWS
1. Avoid inside midfielders with early selections. Given their bevy of picks Reid or Cox would be worth (what I consider to be) the risk if available. I'd also consider Jack Carroll and Finlay Macrae (as outside midfielders), a bid for Brandon Walker, Bailey Laurie, Brayden Cook and Kaine Baldwin with their first round selections.
2. Stick to the talent board with the fifth selection. Jack Ginnivan, Brodie Lake, Eddie Ford and a bid for Blake Coleman or Errol Gulden (if there hasn't already been one) should be considered.

Hawthorn
1. It's a huge win if Hollands, McDonald or Thilthorpe are available for the Hawks. It's an unpopular opinion but I would go Phillips, Bruhn, Macrae and Perkins ahead of Grainger-Barrass.
2. Don't match a Downie bid inside the first 33 picks. It seems specific but I wouldn't want a matched bid to cost me more than one of those picks in the 40's.
3. Use one of the selections in the 40's to access the best midfielder/utility available. Zane Trew, Jackson Edwards, Malachy Carruthers or Jack Ginnivan if available should be considered.
4. Use the other selection in the 40's to add a developing key position prospect such as Jackson Callow, Kaine Baldwin, Liam McMahon or Josh Treacy. Nick Stevens or a bid on Cody Brand should also be considered.

Melbourne
1. Select any slider from that top group. Carroll, Powell, Berry, Laurie, Brayden Cook or a bid on Reef McInnes (although this would be matched) should be considered if available. If none of that crop are available, a bid for Brandon Walker should be considered. Other options for those first two picks include Isiah Winder, Brodie Lake, Jack Ginnivan, Caleb Poulter or Eddie Ford who should all be available.
2. If any are available from that group above then they should be selected, otherwise Baldwin or Callow should come into consideration.

North Melbourne
1. Hollands or McDonald, whichever is available. If the Crows take Thilthorpe then you really can't go wrong with either although I'd preference McDonald given there's a good chance to add a classy midfielder with the next pick.
2. Select Bruhn, Macrae, Perkins or Carroll in that order with their second first round pick.
3. It's best available with the selections in the 30's. Laurie, Ginnivan, Lake, Ford, Winder and Nathan O'Driscoll should all be considered. Carruthers, McMahon and Nick Stevens should all be options with the second pick in the second round.
4. Trying to get a guy who has a good chance at being a role player with their final pick is key. If Edwards, Brockman, Mitchell, Jake Bowey or Lazzaro are available then they should be considered.

Port Adelaide
1. Match the bid on Jones.
2. Port can afford to take a punt on a high ceiling, low basement guy if any are available with their late selections. Fraser Rosman, Ryan Angwin, Max Holmes, Brockman and Mitchell could all be considered. Luke Edwards, if still on the board should also be considered. If Port choose to make a third selection then Phoenix Spicer could be an option.
3. Passing on Schofield in the National Draft is a tick. He'll be a one and done rookie I think.

Richmond
1. Don't reach on a super raw, high ceiling, low basement prospect with the pick in the first round. There is too much talent that should still be on the board to not take the best available. If Macrae or Bruhn are still there then it's a no brainer. Berry, Powell, Laurie or Cook could all be there and would be worthy selections.
2. Match any bid after pick 30 for Maurice Rioli Jr.
3. In the likely scenario that a bid for Rioli Jr comes after their pick in the second round, Ginnivan, Lake, Baldwin, Callow, Ford or Carruthers should all be considered. If none are available then Stevens, McMahon, Brockman, Treacy and Mitchell are all options.

St Kilda
1. Take Jack Carroll if available. If not, consider opportunities to trade into next years draft. If no deals can bring in a future pick then consider Lake, Poulter or Ford.
2. Selecting talent that has a good opportunity to transition to the level as a role-player is key with their two later selections. Carruthers, Edwards, Mitchell, Brockman and Lazzaro should all be considered.

Sydney
1. Take McDonald or Hollands if available. If not, take Thilthorpe.
2. Match any bid for Braeden Campbell.
3. Assuming a bid for Campbell doesn't come before Essendon's pick, match any bid for Errol Gulden after pick 20.

West Coast
1. Selecting talent that has a good opportunity to transition to the level as a role-player is key with their two later selections. Carruthers, Edwards, Mitchell, Brockman and Lazzaro should all be considered.

Western Bulldogs
1. Match any bid on Jamarra Ugle-Hagan.
2. Target a small forward with their second selection. Jack Ginnivan should be selected if available, or a bid on Rioli Jr if he is still on the board. Mitchell, Brockman and Durdin are other options.
3. Take another player who could push for a role in the side over the coming years. Carruthers, Bowey, Angwin and Patrick Walker are all options.
 
Draft Review

Adelaide

What I liked:
I really rated the trade up to select Brayden Cook and the selection of Sam Berry. Although my preference would've been to take one or none of the NGA prospects, adding them as Category B selections was a far better outcome than having to match in the National Draft.

What I didn't like:
The opportunity cost. Whilst I like Thilthorpe and Pedlar* as players I can't help but feel that Hollands/McDonald and Bruhn/Macrae to go with Cook and Berry would have been a far more impressive haul. There were others I preferred instead of Rowe and being able to take a selection in the Rookie Draft instead of upgrading both Newchurch and Borlase would've been more beneficial.

*Collingwood rated Pedlar at #9 on their board and with interest from GWS and Fremantle there was no chance Pedlar was going to be available for the Crows after that selection.

Brisbane
What I liked:
Not a great deal.

What I didn't like:
Having to match on Coleman before their first selection was really unfortunate. He can absolutely be a piece but Brisbane would have loved to have had a selection before a bid came.

Carlton
What I liked:
Getting Jack Carroll so late was a huge win. He'll add plenty of class and has a fair bit of improvement left in him. Whilst I view them both as having low up-side, Durdin and Parks have chances to contribute at AFL level and I think they are worthy selections.

What I didn't like:
Not a lot. With only two picks in the National Draft I think Carlton walk away with a really good outcome.

Collingwood
What I liked:
The depth of quality and upside of their draft. I am obviously a huge fan of Finlay Macrae so his selection was always going to be a tick from me. Whilst I don't rate Oliver Henry particularly highly, I think Collingwood is actually a really good fit for him and will give him the best chance of success at the level. Getting two selections before a Reef McInnes bid was also a great outcome. He is another who I don't rate particularly highly but he does have the physical profile to be a good AFL player if his footy can develop. Poulter and McMahon were great selections at the draft position they were chosen and adding Jack Ginnivan via the Rookie Draft gets another big tick from me.

What I didn't like:
I think maybe Tom Highmore might've been a better fit than Beau McCreery but outside of that I don't think the Pies did too much wrong.

Essendon
What I liked:
The selection of Archie Perkins. I think he'll find his way into the side pretty early and should add some dash, class and flair. I also liked matching Cody Brand later in the piece.

What I didn't like:
So many key position players. It's a high risk/high reward strategy that makes you a genius or costs you your job. I would've preferred just one of Cox/Reid in those first three picks and used the other on another midfielder whether it be Bruhn, Macrae or Powell.

Fremantle
What I liked:
Getting Brandon Walker at 50 was an absolute steal. I also rate the fact that Fremantle added local guys that have a really good chance at being role players at AFL level. It was a pretty low-risk draft for them in my opinion.

What I didn't like:
I mentioned in a previous post that I thought Fremantle should avoid Chapman with the early selection and should target Jack Carroll. While I think Carroll still would've been a good selection for the Dockers I think overall it's hard to argue with what they walked away with.

Geelong:
What I liked:
The Nick Stevens pick late. I think he is a good chance to carve out a role at AFL level in a few years time.

What I didn't like:
Trading up for Max Holmes. I assume that Geelong had the intel that he wouldn't be there for their next pick but I can't get on-board with that reach.

Gold Coast
What I liked:
Elijah Hollands. How perfect this worked out for Gold Coast. He could be the best player in the draft and Gold Coast just add more talent and more class. Incredible kid too, I hope he has a great career at the Suns.

What I didn't like:
Gold Coast not trading with the Crows to allow Adelaide to select Elijah Hollands.

GWS
What I liked:
The selection of Tanner Bruhn. I think he was best available at that selection. It was a good bit of business to get the Pies future first too.

What I didn't like:
Tanner Bruhn's reaction to being selected by GWS. I think he'll be two and done, back to Victoria. I also felt there were better alternatives to Stone and Angwin with those early picks and when evaluating their entire draft haul I feel it was quite underwhelming.

Hawthorn
What I liked:
I really liked the selection of Tyler Brockman late in the draft. Denver Grainger-Barrass comes highly rated and will be ready to go right away. It's a hard selection to question even though I would've preferred Hollands. Jack Saunders in the Rookie Draft was left field but I'm a fan of his and look forward to what he can do in an AFL system.

What I didn't like:
The selections of Downie and Mitchell don't overly excite me. I don't think they are poor selections but I have others that I would've preferred.

Melbourne
What I liked:
The selection of Bailey Laurie. I'm a huge Bailey Laurie fan and I think his selection was one of the best of the draft. I think he is going to add a nice bit of class forward of centre for the Dees.

What I didn't like:
Backing up the selections of two smalls with a super raw Rosman. Whilst I love the Laurie pick and don't hate the Bowey pick, I think other alternatives would have offered a more complete draft for Melbourne.

North Melbourne
What I liked:
North's entire draft crop. A bit left field but I don't think North will regret having Phillips on their list. Whilst I preferred others I think Phillips is a really safe, solid selection. Tom Powell was another good selection to round out their first round choices. Charlie Lazzaro will leave no stone unturned to have an AFL career and is a quality character. Spicer and Ford offer the upside with both having chances to carve out roles plus more at AFL level.

What I didn't like:
Connor Menadue in the Rookie Draft. I'm just not that much of a fan and would've preferred to give someone else a go.

Port Adelaide
What I liked:
Getting Jones at 16 was good value. I wouldn't have taken him at all but given they were always going to, getting Schofield as a Rookie was a win.

What I didn't like:
The selection of Ollie Lord. I don't really think he'll make it at AFL level and I preferred others.

Richmond
What I liked:
Getting Maurice Rioli Jr after pick 50 and adding a future first was a good result. Samson Ryan adds ruck depth with Soldo out long-term and Callum Coleman-Jones serving a suspension into next season.

What I didn't like:
Not alot. It was a pretty decent result given their draft hand.

St Kilda
What I liked:
Getting Tom Highmore late. He adds a bit of depth to the Saints defence.

What I didn't like:
I felt there were better options at their first selection. Overall I think it's a somewhat underwhelming draft and feel the Highmore pick looks better if they went a different way with their first selection.

Sydney
What I liked:
I just loved the Swans whole draft. Choosing Logan McDonald was definitely the right decision and getting Campbell and then Gulden in the 30's was a great result. I'm a huge fan of Malachy Carruthers and love his selection in the Rookie Draft.

What I didn't like:
Absolutely nothing.

West Coast
What I liked:
West Coast had a very average hand but absolutely nailed their selections. Edwards and Winder in the National Draft were really solid additions and hopefully the Rookie Selection gives Zane Trew the wake up call he needed because he is a National Draft quality talent.

What I didn't like:
Absolutely nothing.

Western Bulldogs
What I liked:
Adding Jamarra Ugle-Hagan.

What I didn't like:
There's not a lot to hate when you add who many regard as the best player in the draft despite playing finals footy that year.
 

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Have you been watching any games this year? ModernArtillery ?

I haven't got to as many live games this year but have been catching games on the SANFL Live Pass. I've caught a handful of NAB League games too. I've been pulling my notes together and was aiming to get something out during the middle part of the year. Now that I've got a little more time during the week I've been catching up on games so I anticipate I'll have some stuff out over the next few weeks.
 
I haven't got to as many live games this year but have been catching games on the SANFL Live Pass. I've caught a handful of NAB League games too. I've been pulling my notes together and was aiming to get something out during the middle part of the year. Now that I've got a little more time during the week I've been catching up on games so I anticipate I'll have some stuff out over the next few weeks.
Look forward to it.
 
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