Sasquatch's Cycling Thread

[Sasquatch]

Did you boys get on that market before the TAB took it down?

I'm worried they may have voided it because it was strange they took it down. Probably a lot of people took that 7.50 and they realised, 'oh shit', we should have put the whole list in.

 

[Selective Retention]

I don't really bet on the cycling, just follow it.

When did they take the market down? TAB wouldn't bet live on it.

 

[Sasquatch]

Paris-Tours

One of the last few big races of the Calendar. This race is a mix of breakaway/sprinter. There was an 83 rider sprint a few years ago and Gilbert won out of a four man sprint, holding the peloton by one second so it could go anywhere.

Winner:

.2 units Ignatiev @ $201
1 unit McEwen @ $29
.3 unit Voeckler @ $60 (Unibet)

If someone breaks away to win, it will be Ignatiev who has had a quiet year.

H2H

13 units Robbie McEwen over Michael Van Staeyen @ $1.72 (Sportingbet)

Robbie McEwen is in terrific form. He attacked on a 9% rise a few weeks ago and is Katusha's best chance for a win. I would say he's their leader instead of Pozzato.

6 units Romain Feillu over Grega Bole @ $1.87 (Sportingbet)

Feillu is in great shape. He came top three the other day and a race before that also had a high placing. This is not really a finish that would suit Bole.

6 units Greg Van Avermaet over Peter Sagan @ $1.50 (Sportingbet)

I'm convinced Sagan is feeling the pinch of a long long debut season. Van Avermaet is in form.

6 units Robbie McEwen over Wouter Weylandt @ $1.65 (Unibet)

See above.

The Commonwealth Games road race will be on also. I will wait for a market for that. Hopefully there is one up somewhere in the early part of the afternoon.

Adding

6 units Gerald Ciolek over Jose Joaquim Rojas @ $1.70

Heard big things regarding Ciolek and this race. Rojas needs a harder race.

 

[Sasquatch]

I don't really bet on the cycling, just follow it.

When did they take the market down? TAB wouldn't bet live on it.

They had the market up late this morning.

Mark Cavendish $1.40
Allan Davis $5.50
Chris Sutton $7.00
Any Other Rider $7.50

It was taken down by 2:30-3:00

I presume a lot of people took any other rider @ $7.50. I got it in the morning, then came back later on to throw more on when a ticket cashed, but they had it taken down.

 

[phil daly]

They had the market up late this morning.

Mark Cavendish $1.40
Allan Davis $5.50
Chris Sutton $7.00
Any Other Rider $7.50

It was taken down by 2:30-3:00

I presume a lot of people took any other rider @ $7.50. I got it in the morning, then came back later on to throw more on when a ticket cashed, but they had it taken down.

I think it was smashed. I put a bet on it at about 1.30 and it was already down to $6. I went to put more money on it half an hour later it was gone.

 

[Sasquatch]

I think it was smashed. I put a bet on it at about 1.30 and it was already down to $6. I went to put more money on it half an hour later it was gone.

Yeah.

Hard pressed beating Cavendish on this type of course but it was worth the go at those odds in a ridiculous move by the TAB. I don't know what they were thinking. I just hope it cashes and they don't get the last laugh. Would be good .

 

[Selective Retention]

Cavendish dropped. Surely Davis' to lose from here.

EDIT: Split again. This time dropped Cavendish and Davis.

EDIT 2: Davis rode the gap himself and won the sprint. No good for you guys but a good finish.

 

[Sasquatch]

Cavendish dropped. Surely Davis' to lose from here.

EDIT: Split again. This time dropped Cavendish and Davis.

EDIT 2: Davis rode the gap himself and won the sprint. No good for you guys but a good finish.

Yeah, it doesn't bother me because I knew it was a 50/50 bet anyway. But it may worry everyone else who backed it.

 

[Cruiser23]

Robbie got totally blocked off then gave up with 50m to go.

Weylandts beat him because of this though i think he still managed to beat Van Staeyen.

 

[Sasquatch]

Robbie got totally blocked off then gave up with 50m to go.

Weylandts beat him because of this though i think he still managed to beat Van Staeyen.

Yeah, I saw that.

 

[Cruiser23]

Yeah, I saw that.

Was Hondo...

 

[Sasquatch]

I'm too tired to post the record tonight. Will do it when I wake up.

 

[Sasquatch]

Paris-Tours

One of the last few big races of the Calendar. This race is a mix of breakaway/sprinter. There was an 83 rider sprint a few years ago and Gilbert won out of a four man sprint, holding the peloton by one second so it could go anywhere.

Winner:

.2 units Ignatiev @ $201
1 unit McEwen @ $29
.3 unit Voeckler @ $60 (Unibet)

If someone breaks away to win, it will be Ignatiev who has had a quiet year.

H2H

13 units Robbie McEwen over Michael Van Staeyen @ $1.72 (Sportingbet)

Robbie McEwen is in terrific form. He attacked on a 9% rise a few weeks ago and is Katusha's best chance for a win. I would say he's their leader instead of Pozzato.

6 units Romain Feillu over Grega Bole @ $1.87 (Sportingbet)

Feillu is in great shape. He came top three the other day and a race before that also had a high placing. This is not really a finish that would suit Bole.

6 units Greg Van Avermaet over Peter Sagan @ $1.50 (Sportingbet)

I'm convinced Sagan is feeling the pinch of a long long debut season. Van Avermaet is in form.

6 units Robbie McEwen over Wouter Weylandt @ $1.65 (Unibet)

6 units Gerald Ciolek over Jose Joaquim Rojas @ $1.70

See above.

The Commonwealth Games road race will be on also. I will wait for a market for that. Hopefully there is one up somewhere in the early part of the afternoon.

Will update everything after the time trials on Wednesday and before the Giro di Lombardia on Saturday.

 

[Sasquatch]

Women's Time Trial

15 units Emma Pooley @ $1.85 (TAB)

World time trial champion. Enough said.

Men's Time Trial

2 units Durbridge @ $7.50
1 unit Dennis @ $19

With how the Australian cyclists have gone these games, I'm not fading them. Chances of them winning a small, but Millar is too short to back even though he should probably win with ease. Stranger things have happened.

 

[Sasquatch]

That is now a 20 unit play on Pooley.

 

[Cruiser23]

Pooley $2.00 at Sportingbet, getting on.

 

[Sasquatch]

Yeah, Sportingbet have been inconsistent so I took it at the TAB in case they didn't have a market up. Very annoyed but not to worry.

 

[Sasquatch]

She said she was fine today. She obviously wasn't.

Commonwealth Games

Day 1: +9.91 units
Day 2: -7 units
Day 3: +17.25 units
Day 4: -12 units
Day 5: -3 units
Day 6: -20 units
Overall: -14.84 units

We await the last play I have in the Mens Time Trial. Will either be positive in the Comm games, or minus 17.84.

This is my record since I posted on Bigfooty at the start of the Tour de France.

Tour de France: +86.23 units
Classica San Sebastien: +9 units
Tour of Poland: -3.31 units
Tour of Denmark: -26.65 units
Eneco Tour: -5.99 units
Vattenfall Cyclassics: -5 units
GP Plouay: -11 units
Vuelta: +91.53 units
World Championships: +25.38 units
Paris-Bourges: -6 units
Commonwealth Games: -14.84 units
Paris-Tours: +14.28 units

Overall: +153.63

 

[Sasquatch]

Last major race of the season, the Giro di Lombardia.

4 units Gilbert to win @ $4.25 (Sportingbet)

Gilbert is the defending champion and is the man in form. He won another race yesterday, and he won the same race last year. Last year he won Paris-Tours, Giro del Piemonte (last night) and Giro di Lombardia. This time last year, he gave me a lot of money. He is the favourite and the odds of 4.25 are too long. He should be more like $3.

7 units Richie Porte over Janez Brajkovic @ $1.87 (Sportingbet)

Richie Porte had to miss the Commonwealth Games because Saxo-Bank wanted him to race this race. Obviously, he is their leader and he will ride like he is. I expect a high performance from Porte. Brajkovic isn't suited to these types of races whereas Porte is.

12 units Daniel Martin over Jakob Fuglsang @ $1.45 (Sportingbet)

Daniel Martin has been preparing for this race. This is a race he wants to win. Will he win it? Who knows. Will he beat Fuglsang who has said that he is fatigued and is not the leader of Saxo? He should do. Martin is the leader of Garmin and Fuglsang is nowhere near the leader of Saxo. This bet should be straight forward. Martin will draw confidence from his win in Poland.

10 units Cadel Evans over Vincenzo Nibali @ $1.65 (Sportingbet)

Cadel Evans is BMC's co leader with Mauro Santambrogio. This finish suits Evans. Nibali on the otherhand, I can't see him winning. This type of race doesn't suit him.

5 units Matti Breschel over Oscar Freire x Philippe Gilbert over Filippo Pozzato @ $2.09 (Sportingbet)

Breschel is co-leader with Porte. He came second in the World's, third yesterday and is in good form. Gilbert should be too strong for Pozzato here.

Adding a few underdogs.

.3 units Sinkewitz @ $51
.3 units Gasparotto @ $51

 

[Sasquatch]

8 units Alexandre Kolobnev over Michele Scarponi @ $1.53 (Sportingbet)

Kolobnev will be the leader of Katusha. Joaquin Rodriguez will ride in support of him. Scarponi will be riding for Leonardo Bertagnolli. Scarponi is good in tours, but not one day races like this.

15 units Janez Brajkovic over Peter Sagan @ $1.58 (Sportingbet)

Sagan is questionable over these distances. He will also be burntout from a long debut season. Brajkovic, if on song, will finish highish here. Sagan won't finish.

4 units Chris Horner over Joaquin Rodriguez @ $2.08 (Sportingbet)

Joaquin Rodriguez has had a long, tiring season. He's only racing this race because he's the number one ranked rider in the world and will finish the season as leader of the UCI standings as the number one ranked rider. He will want to see Kolobnev win this.

Horner will be DopeShack's leader with Brajkovic. Horner is in good form and will cherish a race like this one. It's tailormade to him.

4 units Patrick Sinkewitz over Paul Martens @ $1.58

Martens is looking towards a race tomorrow. Sinkewitz, after serving a two year doping suspension is looking good. He's in great form. He could have returned to the protour next year with team Movistar (Caisse d'Epargne), but decided not to as he wanted to honour his contract at ISD.

He is in good form. Was in the select group in the race on Thursday. I see him making the select group this time. He'll show himself by attacking at one point.

 

[Sasquatch]

H2H

15 units Janez Brajkovic over Peter Sagan @ $1.58
15 units Daniel Martin over Jakob Fuglsang @ $1.45
10 units Cadel Evans over Vincenzo Nibali @ $1.65
8 units Alexandre Kolobnev over Michele Scarponi @ $1.53
7 units Richie Porte over Janez Brajkovic @ $1.87
5 units Matti Breschel over Oscar Freire x Philippe Gilbert over Filippo Pozzato @ $2.09

4 units Chris Horner over Joaquin Rodriguez @ $2.08
4 units Patrick Sinkewitz over Paul Martens @ $1.58

Winner

4 units Gilbert to win @ $4.25
.3 units Sinkewitz @ $51
.3 units Gasparotto @ $51

 

[Sasquatch]

2.5 units Daniel Martin to win @ $9

Martin skipped the World's just to concentrate on this race. He's my cover if Gilbert can't make it across with the other climbers.

 

[arakaan]

H2H

15 units Janez Brajkovic over Peter Sagan @ $1.58
15 units Daniel Martin over Jakob Fuglsang @ $1.45
10 units Cadel Evans over Vincenzo Nibali @ $1.65
8 units Alexandre Kolobnev over Michele Scarponi @ $1.53
7 units Richie Porte over Janez Brajkovic @ $1.87
5 units Matti Breschel over Oscar Freire x Philippe Gilbert over Filippo Pozzato @ $2.09

4 units Chris Horner over Joaquin Rodriguez @ $2.08
4 units Patrick Sinkewitz over Paul Martens @ $1.58

Winner

4 units Gilbert to win @ $4.25
.3 units Sinkewitz @ $51
.3 units Gasparotto @ $51

Just a heads up for those with bet 365 accounts

Sinkewitz is @$67 to win
also
Richie Porte over Janez Brajkovic is @ $2.10
and
Cadel Evans over Vincenzo Nibali is @ $1.76


interestingly the Horner bet has Horner clear favorite on bet 365 so you can even back Rodriguex @$2.35 to lock in a certain profit.

PS along with Martin as Sasquatches latest bet he is $15 to win on Bet365.

 

[Sasquatch]

Just a heads up for those with bet 365 accounts

Sinkewitz is @$67 to win
also
Richie Porte over Janez Brajkovic is @ $2.10
and
Cadel Evans over Vincenzo Nibali is @ $1.76


interestingly the Horner bet has Horner clear favorite on bet 365 so you can even back Rodriguex @$2.35 to lock in a certain profit.

Interesting trends there.

I got on those bets yesterday.

Richie Porte was 1.83 at Bet365 when I got on him at 1.87.
Cadel Evans was 1.65 at Bet365 when I got on him at 1.65 on Sportingbet.

Seems people are backing Nibali and Brajkovic as the odds are drifting out. I may be on the wrong side. Treat with caution.

 

[Sasquatch]

On the flipside, the odds on Bet365 when Sportingbet brought over Horner v Rodriguez bet had Horner @ $2 and Rodriguez @ $1.90

If Horner has indeed come in so much, it means a lot of people are backing Horner thus jump on him to beat Rodriguez @ $2.08 on Sportingbet.