Analysis Season 2025 - Statistics and Analytics Thread

[Dalions]

Bit of a concern we're now outside of the premiership window, while we were in it last season. Hopefully we can improve our game towards the end part of the season, because no team has been able to win the flag while being below the premiership window. Also, this highlights why Fagan has been so frustrated with our defence, because it's pushed us down quite a bit.

Nothing to be too concerned about yet.
Long way to go.
We are 17 points away from being top 6 in both.

 

[Tom14]

Nothing to be too concerned about yet.
Long way to go.
We are 17 points away from being top 6 in both.

Last 2 weeks if both teams had kicked to expected score we'd easily be in the window.

Points for and against is a relevant metric across a whole season once the draw evens out (as much as it ever does) - Suns have played teams currently 14-18 on the ladder plus Adelaide.

 

[GenericUsername202]

You’re right that it’s a long way to go, as we weren’t in the premiership window last season by round 8, but this is why winning games isn’t enough for us anymore. It’s how we win games that matters, because if we’re not up in that premiership window by late July or early august, I rate our chances winning a flag at almost 0. As no team below the window has won the flag In the last 20 occasions, and those above it, but to the left (such as Collingwood) has only won it twice. Melbourne and bulldogs back in 2016. Making it a super rare occurrence. The point is that we need to be in that window or else it will tell us that our game plan won’t stack up in September. It’ll be interesting to revisit this throughout the season, because the early window usually is more reflective of an easier draw and teams peaking too early. While later in the season, it tells us who really will be the one to contend this season.

 

[dlanod]

The point is that we need to be in that window or else it will tell us that our game plan won’t stack up in September.

Just hear me out... I would've thought that winning a premiership with said game plan would've done more to tell us whether it will stack up in September than where we fit in a computer graphic.

 

[KissKiss]

There is some value in the model around having both a good enough offence and defence to be able to contend for this year. You do need to have both of them balanced right and we are close to the correct mix but maybe leaking goals a little too much. At this point in the year wins to put us in the position to tinker with game plans is more important

But on that model - its skewed on who has played who so far. This does balance out later in the year somewhat (ignoring luckiness on who doubles up against who and when).

 

[Sunny Land]

There is some value in the model around having both a good enough offence and defence to be able to contend for this year. You do need to have both of them balanced right and we are close to the correct mix but maybe leaking goals a little too much. At this point in the year wins to put us in the position to tinker with game plans is more important

But on that model - its skewed on who has played who so far. This does balance out later in the year somewhat (ignoring luckiness on who doubles up against who and when).

My review of our games thus far is all dependant on our midfield. I rate our midfield as #1 in the competition when playing at their best compared to other teams midfiled at their best. When they are down on form, we suffer both going forward and in defence.
Our forwards struggle when the ball is brought in like a grenade out of a bunker & our defence struggle when the oppo midfield can bring the ball in quickly and delivery that gives their forwards the best chance of scoring.
That said, our midfiled group in: Neale, Dunkley, Ashcrofts, McCluggage, Berry, Fletcher, Rayner, Bailey & Big O are elite and our depth is awesome. Take into account another one coming in 2026 (Annable), we are kissed on the knob by a fairy.

 

[GenericUsername202]

Just hear me out... I would've thought that winning a premiership with said game plan would've done more to tell us whether it will stack up in September than where we fit in a computer graphic.

It's a graphic that has been right 20/20 times. The graphic also tells us what kind of gameplan stacks up in September, and we aren't there yet. You can't argue with the fact that teams who are above the line always ends up winning the premiership. Also, watch any fagan press conference lately and his words alone will tell you that we're also not there yet.

 

[GenericUsername202]

There is some value in the model around having both a good enough offence and defence to be able to contend for this year. You do need to have both of them balanced right and we are close to the correct mix but maybe leaking goals a little too much. At this point in the year wins to put us in the position to tinker with game plans is more important

But on that model - its skewed on who has played who so far. This does balance out later in the year somewhat (ignoring luckiness on who doubles up against who and when).

Of course, like i said before, these early premiership window graphs are not reflective of the actual competition as it doesn't account for easier draws, teams who peak too early, etc. The one at the end of July, start of August where the competition is at its tail end will be more reflective of the teams who will really compete. It will also be a more complete graph because everyone would have played each other at that point and the draw would be less of a factor.

 

[M Malice]

The On the Couch "Premiership window" this early in the season has a lot to do with who you have played eg. the Blues have feasted on the Kangaroos and Eagles. The Suns have had a reasonably easy draw, Eagles, Demons(before they found a bit of form), Kangaroos. Need to get around a dozen games into the season before you can draw an inference from that graphic IMO.

Edit- Just noticed KissKiss already mentioned this, great minds KK.

 

[Darren Downunder]

The On the Couch "Premiership window" this early in the season has a lot to do with who you have played eg. the Blues have feasted on the Kangaroos and Eagles. The Suns have had a reasonably easy draw, Eagles, Demons(before they found a bit of form), Kangaroos. Need to get around a dozen games into the season before you can draw an inference from that graphic IMO.

Edit- Just noticed KissKiss already mentioned this, great minds KK.

Time will tell. But I have a feeling that we’ve had a pretty easy draw too.
We’ve played, Eagles and Tigers who I think will be bottom teams.
Saints, who I don’t think will challenge for the eight and Swans who seem to be on a grand final hangover.
Pies, Cats and dogs are gonna be good sides IMHO and getting two wins from those games has be great.
I’m not saying there are any red lights flashing but we are still building into the season and quite a way off our best.
Sunday’s game will be tough to win.

 

[KissKiss]

Time will tell. But I have a feeling that we’ve had a pretty easy draw too.
We’ve played, Eagles and Tigers who I think will be bottom teams.
Saints, who I don’t think will challenge for the eight and Swans who seem to be on a grand final hangover.
Pies, Cats and dogs are gonna be good sides IMHO and getting two wins from those games has be great.
I’m not saying there are any red lights flashing but we are still building into the season and quite a way off our best.
Sunday’s game will be tough to win.

Yeah on review our draw has worked out quite well in who we have played when and where. The middle and back ends of the year look much tougher, will really determine where we are at

 

[dlanod]

It's a graphic that has been right 20/20 times. The graphic also tells us what kind of gameplan stacks up in September, and we aren't there yet. You can't argue with the fact that teams who are above the line always ends up winning the premiership.

The graphic hasn't been right 20/20 times, because they didn't draw it 20 years ago and have it be correct 20 times. They've drawn it on historical data and whenever that's done they basically just best fit the data. I can guarantee if someone wins from "outside the square" they'll just increase the area of the square and show it again.

A similar example was no one winning a premiership under the current finals system from 5th (or 7th) from 20/20 times - until they did.

(There's also zero correlation between gameplan and the graphic. You could have the perfect gameplan and execute it poorly and not be anywhere to be seen. It comments on points for and against - there can be a correlation with a gameplan, but it's not the same information. Arguably our gameplan is fine, per my previous comment. After all we won last year with it! It's our execution/midfield running that's letting us down right now.)

Also, watch any fagan press conference lately and his words alone will tell you that we're also not there yet.

Fagan's talking about execution, not gameplan.

 

[Elixuh]

If you’re not in the premiership window at the end of April it’s game over. Look to the draft.

It’d be nice if the window graphic showed exactly how many points you are off the window. I dun read giraffes too gud.

 

[Nunez]

If you’re not in the premiership window at the end of April it’s game over. Look to the draft.

It’d be nice if the window graphic showed exactly how many points you are off the window. I dun read giraffes too gud.

I bet you still wear an onion on your belt, don't you...

 

[Elixuh]

I bet you still wear an onion on your belt, don't you...

I’m just a humble suns supporter.

 

[Tom14]

If you’re not in the premiership window at the end of April it’s game over. Look to the draft.

It’d be nice if the window graphic showed exactly how many points you are off the window. I dun read giraffes too gud.

I think Sydney missed out on being in the window by like 3 goals last year.

 

[Grasshopper17]

The seedings have been turned on their head this week!

We drop out of the top 4 down to #6 - the 2nd worst performance for the round compared to expectations. Behind St Kilda

#1 Geelong (840) - their win over Hawthorn is just enough to see them edge into top spot.

#2 Hawthorn (806)

#3 Collingwood (744) - gain 209 points due to their huge win over us.

#4 Western Bulldogs (629) - gain 233 points from their win over St Kilda, edging past the Giants who drop to #5 after losing to Adelaide.

There were a lot of big movers this week even besides Collingwood and the Doggies. Richmond gained 195 from beating Gold Coast, Carlton picked up 176 points by flogging North, and Melbourne took 135 off Freo. Even West Coast despite losing gained 133 against Essendon, although they still remain stone motherless 18th.

The model has us beating St Kilda (#12 @ -105) by 17 points.

No changes to the makeup of the seedings this week but the order has had a real shakeup!

#1 Collingwood (804) - did the business against Essendon.

#2 Hawthorn (763) - The model expected the Hawks to beat West Coast by more than 50, so they lose points despite winning.

#3 Western Bulldogs (754) - impressive performance against the Giants so a nice big uptick here.

#4 Geelong (726) - Carlton were a mid-rated team so Geelong's 3 goal loss was frowned upon.

We gained a spot and 109 rating points, to #5 and 620. Still a strong performance or two away from getting back in the seedings, but we've moved ahead of the Giants this week.

Plenty of other big movers this week. Gold Coast the best performance of the round, up 188, Carlton up 129, North up 122 despite losing, and Fremantle up 106.

I still have the Suns at #11 (+90), so the model favours us by 14 points this Sunday.

 

[Section 5]

No changes to the makeup of the seedings this week but the order has had a real shakeup!

#1 Collingwood (804) - did the business against Essendon.

#2 Hawthorn (763) - The model expected the Hawks to beat West Coast by more than 50, so they lose points despite winning.

#3 Western Bulldogs (754) - impressive performance against the Giants so a nice big uptick here.

#4 Geelong (726) - Carlton were a mid-rated team so Geelong's 3 goal loss was frowned upon.

We gained a spot and 109 rating points, to #5 and 620. Still a strong performance or two away from getting back in the seedings, but we've moved ahead of the Giants this week.

Plenty of other big movers this week. Gold Coast the best performance of the round, up 188, Carlton up 129, North up 122 despite losing, and Fremantle up 106.

I still have the Suns at #11 (+90), so the model favours us by 14 points this Sunday.

Is that in part to the Suns and Essendon having played 1 less game?

 

[Grasshopper17]

Is that in part to the Suns and Essendon having played 1 less game?

No. My model started at Round 1 of 2024 with everyone on "0" points, and you gain/lose points based on whether you perform better or worse than expected. So whether you have played 29 games in that time like the Suns, or 34 games like we have, doesn't really make a big difference in the overall scheme of things.

 

[Saucery]

Pretty interesting article for the Nerd Clique.

How the best AFL teams can win games through clearances

Footy teams and experts talk constantly about the importance of winning clearances, but there is much more to it than simply getting to the ball first.

www.abc.net.au

 

[MSB ROYS]

Pretty interesting article for the Nerd Clique.

Also shows how far WCE are off the pace.

 

[Saucery]

Also shows how far WCE are off the pace.

Yeah, they don't need an intervention, they need an exorcism.

 

[M Malice]

Yeah, they don't need an intervention, they need an exorcism.

Live coverage of the Eagles board meeting.

 

[Darren Downunder]

Live coverage of the Eagles board meeting.

I thought that was JD Vance meeting the Pope.

 

[Nathan Barley]

https://www.theroar.com.au/2025/05/02/theyre-6-1-but-the-lions-have-a-glaring-weakness-and-it-might-just-stop-them-going-back-to-back/