Analysis Season 2025 - Statistics and Analytics Thread

[thedaz]

The latest ESPN Footy podcast had some good analysis on Brisbane first v second half - the Brisbane specific content starts about 40 minutes in.

To quote captain obviously, our first halves are like a bottom four team, but our second halves are 1st/2nd ranked in most key stats. But they analyse a heap of other statistics, noting that our efficiency inside 50 along with pressure during 2nd halves is noticeably higher than first halves.

 

[SizeMatters]

What I commented on a few weeks back. We aren't playing as well compared to last year though we have the results. We still have a significant amount of room for improvement particularly in the front half and the synergy between mid and forward line is lacking. Losing Joe and forced to rely on Day, Hipwood and Morris who are neither consistent or really what you can call 'anchor' forwards. This will take a while to adjust to. Joe's ability to compete and bring the ball down to the ground is sorely missed and you can tell in the way the Lions move the ball forward. At times there is hesitance to enter inside 50.

Funnily, I was telling my partner last week at half time that Hipwood would be a much better player if he used his body more and used it early in a context instead of just waiting for something to happen to him. After half time that's exactly what he did he was way more proactive. Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde moment. Hopefully he continues to be physical and utilise his advantages better.

 

[Tom14]

What I commented on a few weeks back. We aren't playing as well compared to last year though we have the results. We still have a significant amount of room for improvement particularly in the front half and the synergy between mid and forward line is lacking. Losing Joe and forced to rely on Day, Hipwood and Morris who are neither consistent or really what you can call 'anchor' forwards. This will take a while to adjust to. Joe's ability to compete and bring the ball down to the ground is sorely missed and you can tell in the way the Lions move the ball forward. At times there is hesitance to enter inside 50.

Funnily, I was telling my partner last week at half time that Hipwood would be a much better player if he used his body more and used it early in a context instead of just waiting for something to happen to him. After half time that's exactly what he did he was way more proactive. Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde moment. Hopefully he continues to be physical and utilise his advantages better.

Are you suggesting that Hippy's.... Size Matters?

 

[Nathan Barley]

The biggest issue is we're not defending as well. With the midfield the biggest issue

Forwardline has been at least as good as last year. At least offensively. Maybe forward pressure has seen a drop

 

[martinson]

It's fairly clear we're falling down in parts of our game sometimes for sustained periods of games but still managed to win every one of them

We'll probably know more when we come up against an opposition that's able to defend well when we put our foot to the floor.

 

[Tom14]

Bit of a glass half full stat - we are currently the second worst for scoring from centre bouncein clearances in the comp, barely ahead of West Coast. In terms of centre bounce score differential, we are -6 per game.

Scores from centre bounce clearances are generally a bit random though, and a very small component of scoring. We can easily turn that around and improve in this area.

 

[Tom14]

Another great 'This week in football' featuring a lot of analysis on how bad the Dees are:

Week 6 2025 – This Week In Football

Welcome to the new (and hopefully) final home to This Week In Football. We've got a few new writers this week, and a brand new look.

thisweekinfootball.com

 

[KissKiss]

Bit of a glass half full stat - we are currently the second worst for scoring from centre bouncein clearances in the comp, barely ahead of West Coast. In terms of centre bounce score differential, we are -6 per game.

Scores from centre bounce clearances are generally a bit random though, and a very small component of scoring. We can easily turn that around and improve in this area.

Ive seen a few stats floating around that we seem to be bad at centre clearances but really good at other stoppage clearances. Neale seems to regularly be near the top each round for general stoppage clearances (but not for centre square ones).

 

[Grasshopper17]

Through 6 rounds this season our percentage is 105.7. After Round 6 last season it was 105.0, despite being 2-4 compared to the 5-1 we are now.

Given this is so close I thought it was worth a deeper dive into finding out what is similar and what has changed compared to where we were last season.

The numbers salad is below. The best I can do for the TLDR brigade is our midfield probably needs to defend a bit better.

But these are my key takeouts:

• Overall we are scoring 13.5 points extra per game.
• On the flipside we are also conceding 12.3 extra points per game.

• We are averaging 5.7 less possession chains per game.
• Our opposition is also averaging 11.3 less possession chains per game.
• The fact that on the whole, our matches have less possession chains this season indicates these chains are longer in duration. To me this suggests a greater focus on attack by our midfield. We are able to hold the ball for longer but we are less able to disrupt opposition chains.

• We are averaging about the same rate at converting possession chains into inside 50 entries as we were last season (49% vs 48%).
• But we are allowing our opposition to go inside 50 at a much greater rate (46% of the time up from 39% last year).
• This again suggests a lack of defensive accountability from our midfield.

• Once inside 50, we are able to get a shot at goal 48% of the time. This is up from only 41% last year. This is pretty promising given our concerns about Sam Day
  14

  Sam Day

  Age

  33

  Ht

  196cm

  Wt

  106kg

  Pos.

  Fwd

  Career

  Season

  Last 5

  D

  9.8

  2star

  K

  5.2

  2star

  HB

  4.6

  3star

  M

  3.5

  4star

  T

  1.8

  4star

  G

  0.7

  4star

  D

  8.0

  2star

  K

  3.6

  1star

  HB

  4.4

  3star

  M

  1.9

  2star

  T

  1.5

  2star

  G

  0.9

  4star

  D

  8.6

  3star

  K

  3.2

  2star

  HB

  5.4

  4star

  M

  3.0

  3star

  T

  0.8

  3star

  G

  0.2

  3star

  etc, and seems to suggest our forward line is functioning reasonably well. Having said that, we still only rank 14th in the AFL on this metric, so it looks like the whole comp has been able to improve its efficiency in this aspect this season so far.
• The ease at which we're conceding a shot at goal has also risen, from 42% to 50%. This puts us mid-table, 10th in the comp.

• Interestingly the expected score per shots on both sides of the ball has reduced. This suggests we are being forced to take more difficult shots, but also we are forcing our opposition to take more difficult shots.
• This seems to contradict the above stats a bit, but I believe that this could be evidence that teams are defending deeper as a general rule. This means shots at goal are being conceded more regularly, but they are difficult shots. i.e. "We'll give you the boundary lines, and if you're good enough to kick the goal from there, well good luck to you."
• We are 8th in attack and 7th in defence on this metric, so pretty average, suggesting this could be a broader competition trend, which is something I forecast last year.

• On the flipside, our conversion has actually improved. Our accuracy compared to expected score has increased from 93% to 103%. This means we have actually kicked for goal (slightly) better than expected this season so far.
• Meanwhile our opposition's accuracy has decreased slightly, from 111% to 108%. They are still kicking for goal more accurately than normally expected, but a little less so than last year. In theory, there is not much we can do about our opposition's accuracy, so this is a bit of a "luck index" in a way.

• So all up, our increased scoring is due to having longer possession chains + better inside 50 entries + better accuracy (- more difficult shots).
• At the other end, the higher scores we're conceding is due to longer possession chains + more inside 50 entries + better inside 50 entries (- more difficult shots - slightly worse accuracy).

 

[thedaz]

The numbers salad is below. The best I can do for the TLDR brigade is our midfield probably needs to defend a bit better.

I do agree with this - but I'd also throw into the mix that our half back line probably needs to do more defending.

We have a lot of attacking players on the half back flanks and now with Starc out, we lack for medium sized solid lock down defender types and we're getting a bit exposed.

 

[twhowler]

I do agree with this - but I'd also throw into the mix that our half back line probably needs to do more defending.

We have a lot of attacking players on the half back flanks and now with Starc out, we lack for medium sized solid lock down defender types and we're getting a bit exposed.

The mix definitely seems off to me. And is now hurting us on the wing with Fletcher. Fine to give it a go but hoping we make a change

From the excellent stat breakdown, the thing that stands out is inside 50s, that is a big difference from last season. Would it be mostly from centre bounce clearances? Getting smacked in there at times

 

[dlanod]

I do agree with this - but I'd also throw into the mix that our half back line probably needs to do more defending.

We have a lot of attacking players on the half back flanks and now with Starc out, we lack for medium sized solid lock down defender types and we're getting a bit exposed.

The Starc injury really has had a cascade effect. Fletcher has been as good as you could expect but he's not as shut down as Brandon and weirdly I think it's really taken away from Zorko's rebounding and opening up of the full field too. Fletcher is more willing to back himself but it doesn't always play to Fagan's scheme and its strengths.

 

[Section 5]

At present we have one lockdown defender in Answerth now that Starch is out. Wilmot does a pretty good defensive job anyhow.
We beat the Cats with one lockdown defender, and it is 50/50 with me on whether you always need two.

If opposition smalls are getting well on top, then in hindsight you probable would have been better with 2 lock-down players.
However, if the Lions defenders are racking up intercept marks, then that makes the opposition smalls tasks harder.

If the club thinks Doedee is ready i would go: Zorko, Wilmot, Andrews, Payne, Lester, Answerth & Doedee relief defender.
Fletcher back to the wing. If things are not going well in defense, you can always move Fletcher back again.

 

[Grasshopper17]

No changes to the seedings this week but the gaps have certainly closed up!

#1 Hawthorn (834) - were expected to win comfortably against Port. Instead they got cleaned up, and the model only accounts for the final margin, not the smashing they got in the first half. Their 225 swing against is the largest of the season so far.

#2 Geelong (814) - slight overperformance against the Crows.

#3 Brisbane (720) - slightly larger overperformance against the Bulldogs, but not enough to pass the Cats.

#4 Greater Western Sydney (667) - similar scale of overperformance against the Saints.

The best performances from the round were Port (+225), Collingwood (+124 against Sydney), Essendon (+117 v Melbourne) and Carlton (+110 v West Coast). Interestingly with Carlton and Port's strong showings over the weekend, there are now 13 of the 18 teams who have a positive rating. All the ratings add up to 0 so that gives you an indication of how the bottom sides are faring.

The model has us beating Collingwood by 5 points on Thursday night. I know various models have attempted over the years to account for 5 day breaks etc etc, but given each team has relatively few of them each year, it's very difficult to account for with any great accuracy. Hopefully it doesn't adversely affect us this week!

The seedings have been turned on their head this week!

We drop out of the top 4 down to #6 - the 2nd worst performance for the round compared to expectations. Behind St Kilda

#1 Geelong (840) - their win over Hawthorn is just enough to see them edge into top spot.

#2 Hawthorn (806)

#3 Collingwood (744) - gain 209 points due to their huge win over us.

#4 Western Bulldogs (629) - gain 233 points from their win over St Kilda, edging past the Giants who drop to #5 after losing to Adelaide.

There were a lot of big movers this week even besides Collingwood and the Doggies. Richmond gained 195 from beating Gold Coast, Carlton picked up 176 points by flogging North, and Melbourne took 135 off Freo. Even West Coast despite losing gained 133 against Essendon, although they still remain stone motherless 18th.

The model has us beating St Kilda (#12 @ -105) by 17 points.

 

[On the quiet]

At present we have one lockdown defender in Answerth now that Starch is out. Wilmot does a pretty good defensive job anyhow.
We beat the Cats with one lockdown defender, and it is 50/50 with me on whether you always need two.

If opposition smalls are getting well on top, then in hindsight you probable would have been better with 2 lock-down players.
However, if the Lions defenders are racking up intercept marks, then that makes the opposition smalls tasks harder.

If the club thinks Doedee is ready i would go: Zorko, Wilmot, Andrews, Payne, Lester, Answerth & Doedee relief defender.
Fletcher back to the wing. If things are not going well in defense, you can always move Fletcher back again.

I believe Lions currently we have two lockdown defenders with Answerth and Payne. IF/when Starc is fit, cannot see why we cannot have three, but unfortunately think Noah will be under pressure.

 

[Grasshopper17]

The mix definitely seems off to me. And is now hurting us on the wing with Fletcher. Fine to give it a go but hoping we make a change

From the excellent stat breakdown, the thing that stands out is inside 50s, that is a big difference from last season. Would it be mostly from centre bounce clearances? Getting smacked in there at times

Having another look at that table, our clearance numbers are actually pretty much identical to the same stage last season. It's our intercept numbers that have fallen however.

So I read that as a work rate issue when we lose the clearance and the ball moves away from the stoppage situation. We aren't able to win the ball back as well as we were this time last year.

 

[Section 5]

Having another look at that table, our clearance numbers are actually pretty much identical to the same stage last season. It's our intercept numbers that have fallen however.

So I read that as a work rate issue when we lose the clearance and the ball moves away from the stoppage situation. We aren't able to win the ball back as well as we were this time last year.

Mostly it is about our pressure on the opposition up field on how many intercept the Lions take in defense.
Quite a few other reasons also but that's the main one i think of.

 

[Nathan Barley]

Having another look at that table, our clearance numbers are actually pretty much identical to the same stage last season. It's our intercept numbers that have fallen however.

So I read that as a work rate issue when we lose the clearance and the ball moves away from the stoppage situation. We aren't able to win the ball back as well as we were this time last year.

Prior to the Collingwood game I'm pretty certain I saw somewhere that only West Coast were scoring less from clearances than us. Which we also didn't do against Collingwood

That's where the drop off is where it was a good source of goals from us normally

 

[thedaz]

Guess we needed a few days off. Team responded well against the Saints and it showed in the player ratings.

 

[Nunez]

Guess we needed a few days off. Team responded well against the Saints and it showed in the player ratings.

View attachment 2296306

Rayner plays two quarters and is the fifth highest rated player in the game.

 

[thedaz]

Rayner plays two quarters and is the fifth highest rated player in the game.

Yeah, it's an odd one actually. Looking at his raw numbers, it does seem he was fairly balanced though:

• 19 disposals
• 2 tackles
• 3 score involvements
• 410 metres gained
• 3 clearances

I'm guessing the meterage influenced his rating positively - 410 metres is decent, and he ranked fourth overall in that stat.

 

[Nunez]

Yeah, it's an odd one actually. Looking at his raw numbers, it does seem he was fairly balanced though:

• 19 disposals
• 2 tackles
• 3 score involvements
• 410 metres gained
• 3 clearances

I'm guessing the meterage influenced his rating positively - 410 metres is decent, and he ranked fourth overall in that stat.

We have him lots of stoppage time in the first, barely any in the second and third, then a bunch in the fourth. It was really evident how involved and dominant he was when he was constantly around the ball. The luxury of having the depth we have is we can use him when we need him, which keeps him fresh whenever he is used on the ball. Makes the most of his tank then can rest forward and kick a few goals, although today was not his day and often seemed to decoy for others - would be good to look at his positioning on rewatch.

 

[martinson]

We've worked out what Cam's got in him and threw him into the fray from the start today to set a standard after last week.

Overuse the weapon and he burns out. The way we used him today was perfect imo.

He's never going to dominate a game and then go forward and be a prime forward target. But he's still a strong body around stoppages.

I think as the season unfolds we'll get more out of him but expectations are set too high because of what he can do when he does it.

I reckon the coaches have a good handle on it all by now.

 

[GenericUsername202]

Bit of a concern we're now outside of the premiership window, while we were in it last season. Hopefully we can improve our game towards the end part of the season, because no team has been able to win the flag while being below the premiership window. Also, this highlights why Fagan has been so frustrated with our defence, because it's pushed us down quite a bit.

 

[Schache_off]

Bit of a concern we're now outside of the premiership window, while we were in it last season. Hopefully we can improve our game towards the end part of the season, because no team has been able to win the flag while being below the premiership window. Also, this highlights why Fagan has been so frustrated with our defence, because it's pushed us down quite a bit.

I assume before the Richmond game we were in the zone? We still look like we're in the zone with other models. We've got 5 games to get ourselves defensively sorted before we have a couple of difficult games in a row.

If we can get our intercept game going (as in scoring goals off turnovers) then we should get ourselves back in there. Doedee and Gardiner are handy reserves players ready to go if we want to change the AFL side up.