Analysis Season 2024 - Statistics and Analytics Thread

[MSB ROYS]

Am I doing this right?

Lions winning streak is 2, GWS is 0. GWS is no chance .

 

[Section 5]

I still don't understand why it's worst to have had a lead and then lose then it is to not have a lead and then lose

We've won 15 games this year, the Giants have won 15 games this year

There's your formline

I always prefer a team that puts in a good effort early. That may get you into a good position to win the game.
It means the effort is there from the start and if they struggle later, that's not ideal but understandable.

The above-mentioned table just shows what we all know has happened this year.
However, we won 3 of the 7 games mentioned by 28, 20 & 20.

We are not a great final quarter team but in the Swans game we kicked 4.6 to 1.1 in the last quarter to get a 2-point win.

 

[Tom14]

I always prefer a team that puts in a good effort early. That may get you into a good position to win the game.
It means the effort is there from the start and if they struggle later, that's not ideal but understandable.

The above-mentioned table just shows what we all know has happened this year.
However, we won 3 of the 7 games mentioned by 28, 20 & 20.

We are not a great final quarter team but in the Swans game we kicked 4.6 to 1.1 in the last quarter to get a 2-point win.

Came back in the dees game too. Pretty sure those are the last 2 games we trailed in at 3QT?

 

[Section 5]

As long as we are up 10% at 3/4 time no worries

 

[BrainOfMorbius]

Didn't the Fox Footy premiership window model have the Hawks and Bulldogs as the only teams to finish the season in the premiership zone? RIP that model

 

[Tom14]

Didn't the Fox Footy premiership window model have the Hawks and Bulldogs as the only teams to finish the season in the premiership zone? RIP that model

Us too.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Us too.

Yes, we were in that window, but not the Champion Data premiership metrics window.

 

[Elixuh]

Not necessarily what he is saying about the game or his prediction. But pretty sure when we weren't going great earlier in the season we were one of the worst teams in the league for ground ball. We are now elite.

 

[Section 5]

Not necessarily what he is saying about the game or his prediction. But pretty sure when we weren't going great earlier in the season we were one of the worst teams in the league for ground ball. We are now elite.

Pretty clear he thinks Lions have the recent stats to win the GF, though only by 8 points in his final words.
But the last sentence is Lions travelling 3 weeks in a row concerns him

 

[M Malice]

Pretty clear he thinks Lions have the recent stats to win the GF, though only by 8 points in his final words.
But the last sentence is Lions travelling 3 weeks in a row concerns him

I too am worried about the travel factor and the shorter break, hopefully the adrenalin of it being a GF will carry us through.

 

[Gadzorks]

Pretty clear he thinks Lions have the recent stats to win the GF, though only by 8 points in his final words.
But the last sentence is Lions travelling 3 weeks in a row concerns him

Travel time can cut both ways - tired and would rather be at home or opportunity for team bonding..

Guarantee it is been the later during this finals run. And tightly bonded teams are players playing for each other which is an essential ingredient in winning.

We got this

 

[Tom14]

After a smashing grand final win we've ended up around Geelong 2009 and Hawthorn 2015 in Squiggle's team ratings. Very very worthy premiers.

 

[Nathan Barley]

Stats, stats, stats

 

[Tom14]

 

[Tom14]

Where the AFL grand final was won for the Lions, and lost for the Swans

Brisbane are kings of the AFL jungle again, while the Swans mourn another grand final belting. These are the key stats that decided the 2024 premiership.

www.abc.net.au

The Lions also leaned on their strengths in controlling the flow of the game. Brisbane leant on a heavy kick-mark style and trapped the ball in their front half. The Lions finished with a 158 to 88 advantage for marks, including a 22-to-nine advantage inside 50.

The corridor, key to so much Sydney success across the last three years, was effectively closed for business by the Lions.

Brisbane had five more disposals (68-63) than the Swans in the centre square across the entire game, with the Swans only managing 13 disposals in the square when transitioning the ball from defence.

But it was the Lions' deadly intercept game that truly put the game beyond doubt.

In the second quarter, when the game was to be won, the Lions scored 20 points from seven front-half intercepts. For some teams that would be a good return for an entire game, let alone just one quarter.

Scoring from intercepts across the ground was where Brisbane did the most damage for the entire game.

The Lions scored 41 points to 13 in the first two quarters from intercepts and finished with a 72-27 advantage overall.

The Lions also managed to hold their composure through the game defensively.

Despite having a huge possession advantage, Brisbane also managed to register more tackles across the game. That's a sign of how disciplined the Lions were at the contest.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Yes some numbers from Andrew Whelan



More here: https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_match_stats.html?ID=20242801

 

[Tom14]

Can someone please explain to me what these pressure rating numbers refer to:View attachment 2127314

Champion data pressure rating. I think I dug up an explanation of it at some stage but no clue where now. For refernce, Sydney's pressure rating was at 158 for the GF.

I think around 180 is afl average??

 

[Elixuh]

Champion data pressure rating. I think I dug up an explanation of it at some stage but no clue where now. For refernce, Sydney's pressure rating was at 158 for the GF.

I think around 180 is afl average??

People are equating Sydney's pressure rating to them playing poorly rather than us executing exceptionally and keeping the ball off them. You can't pressure if you're letting us chip mark all day.

 

[Tom14]

People are equating Sydney's pressure rating to them playing poorly rather than us executing exceptionally and keeping the ball off them. You can't pressure if you're letting us chip mark all day.

Agree, but they were putrid as well. Also heard a stat somewhere today that we had 55% possession of the ball in the GF, which is frankly ridiculous.

 

[Elixuh]

Agree, but they were putrid as well. Also heard a stat somewhere today that we had 55% possession of the ball in the GF, which is frankly ridiculous.

Most marks ever in a GF I think.

You know I'm no good at this stats and analysis stuff, I'm more of a Mark Robinson type, but I thought Sydney came in with a botched gameplan and our gameplan was what we had been working towards for 12 months. Tailored specifically for the MCG and winning a flag. I don't think their coaching gave them a great chance and you're right their players kinda looked stunned.

 

[JasRulz63]

Champion data pressure rating. I think I dug up an explanation of it at some stage but no clue where now. For refernce, Sydney's pressure rating was at 158 for the GF.

I think around 180 is afl average??

3rd lowest pressure rating in a Grand Final apparently.

 

[KissKiss]

Can someone please explain to me what these pressure rating numbers refer to:View attachment 2127314

Its something like for everytime someone from the opposition has the ball how much pressure do you put on them. ie its a scale from being tackled as you try and get rid of the ball to being touched to being corralled to being completely open under no pressure. They score each of those (4 3 2 1) and then sum them up over the last 100 disposals or something.

As said 150 or below is really bad, 180ish is average to good, over 200 is really high pressure.

 

[Section 5]

Can someone please explain to me what these pressure rating numbers refer to:View attachment 2127314

This is from Champion Data 25/7/2023 he mentions Essendon, Swans, and Port as examples in a few cases.

This is for 8 minutes another goes for 20 minutes. The 8 minute one has enough for people to take in

 

[JasRulz63]

Grand Final Stats Recap

Forgotten in the build-up to the 2024 AFL grand final, possibly in over-exuberance and possibly in trepidation, was the enormity of the task confronting Chris Fagan and his team.

www.lions.com.au

Excellent article by Peter Blucher.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Last seeds for the year!

#1 - Sydney 130%
#2 - Brisbane 125%

The model has Sydney winning 92-89. Come on you bastard get it wrong just one more time!

Final rankings for the year. Our huge Grand Final win shot us up to the #1 ranking for the first time all season. It was only a matter of time but the model eventually got it right!

I'll probably look to roll out a new model for my seeds next season, hopefully (a) putting a greater weighting on recent form and (b) utilising more of Champion Data's "Premiership Metrics", which, to be fair, are gonna need a rework over summer given they had only Hawthorn and the Bulldogs as the only potential premiers at the start of the finals.

#1 - Brisbane 129%

#2 - Sydney 127%

#3 - Western Bulldogs 125%
#4 - Greater Western Sydney 116%

#5 - Hawthorn 115%
#6 - Geelong 113%
#7 - Fremantle 108%
#8 - Port Adelaide 105.8%

#9 - Collingwood 105.6%
#10 - Adelaide 104.4%
#11 - Carlton 103.6%
#12 - Melbourne 100%
#13 - St Kilda 95%
#14 - Essendon 90%
#15 - Gold Coast 89%
#16 - West Coast 64.4%
#17 - Richmond 64.3%
#18 - North Melbourne 63%