Unofficial Preview Season-in-3-weeks: Round 4, vs Carlton

[Persevering Saint]

Okay, so, for this game we're up against the Blues.

Key factors:

1. This game is in Wellington, with tons of ANZAC significance. We have the home CROWD advantage, probably, but we've never won at wundy Wellington, and so we can't speak of a home GROUND advantage. Mind you, hey, we've played there two more times than Carlton ever has, sooo.
2. The other factor is the time of the game. The game is in the afternoon, NZ time. All the previous NZ games were in the evening, with the dew damaging the ball handling, etc for the game. That is less likely to be a factor this time.
   
3. If you go have a look at the "Wooden Spoon" thread on the main board, many have Carlton as a chance for the spoon this year, although Blues fans are quite adamant that is silly. Still, it's worth pointing out.
4. We'll have come off a game against Collingwood at the MCG. On current voting, most see that as being a loss, with almost a third expecting us to get belted. That would mean, on current polling, that we had been belted two weeks in a row. We'd probably be 0W-2L-1D, based on current polling. Not exactly an auspicious start.
   
5. Mind you, Carlton won't have had it easy by then either. Against Richmond Round 1, then in Perth against the Eagles Round 2, and then against the Bombers in Round 3 (who knows, given the ASADA factor...). They could be 0 Wins at this point, too.

I'll bow to Blue and Silver 's extensive analysis of the list from the Carlton board's Best 22 thread (by the way, B&S, you're more than welcome to offer any further analysis or insight you may have here ). Here's the mock 22 matchups.



Both teams will see this as a REAL chance to get a win - potentially, one of few for the year. Add the ANZAC hype, and this could be an absolute cracker!

 

[Persevering Saint]

I'd like to also invite The Old Dark Navy's and HARKER to add any further insights they may have for the match. In particular, if you're aware of any players who are currently injured, but may be back by this time, that'd be great. But yeah, anything you have to add.

 

[Persevering Saint]

For mine, I'm thinking the home ground advantage... such as it is... will see us across the line.

 

[Blue and Silver]

When I posted that, what oh 5 minutes ago, I didn't think it would make me some sort of expert...

A quick look at the sides and I think we'll try to exploit you for height in the air and pressure you on the ground.

You could cause us trouble if you can get the ball coming in hard and low into your 50, or if you can beat the defensive pressure and get our defenders one vs one

 

[Persevering Saint]

When I posted that, what oh 5 minutes ago, I didn't think it would make me some sort of expert...

A quick look at the sides and I think we'll try to exploit you for height in the air and pressure you on the ground.

You could cause us trouble if you can get the ball coming in hard and low into your 50, or if you can beat the defensive pressure and get our defenders one vs one

Dude, I looked through that thread on the Blues board for the last week or so, and yours was a VERY impressive write up and analysis. By far the best I've seen - and that includes on the main board's analysis of clubs' best 22 (if you haven't put it there yet, seriously man, you should definitely do that!).

Definitely expert material.

 

[HARKER]

Jesus...............you're somewhat advanced here Persevering Saint

Here's what I have in respect to Carlton:

New game plan being honed and very hush-hush for now.
All spots have been thrown open and have to be earned.
It's not even going to be a matter of picking your best players but those that can apply the game plan. There will be surprises even for Blues supporters.

It's much too early picking what may be the starting side but the good news (fingers crossed) is that Carlton hasn't many injured.
Walker will be touch and go, even leading into round 4 and Giles is out for the best part of the year.



Carrazzo, Cripps, Boekhorst and Tutt will also have claims dependent on what happens in the next couple of months.

 

[Blue and Silver]

Dude, I looked through that thread on the Blues board for the last week or so, and yours was a VERY impressive write up and analysis. By far the best I've seen - and that includes on the main board's analysis of clubs' best 22 (if you haven't put it there yet, seriously man, you should definitely do that!).

Definitely expert material.

Cheers. I just kinda whipped it up over lunch

 

[saintbill]

I like the match ups for us at both ends of the ground, break even in the midfield and I reckon we should win this one. A fit Judd, with Murphy, Gipps & Thomas is still a pretty decent midfield though. Will need a good game from one of Montagna or Steven I reckon.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Jesus...............you're somewhat advanced here Persevering Saint

Here's what I have in respect to Carlton:

New game plan being honed and very hush-hush for now.
All spots have been thrown open and have to be earned.
It's not even going to be a matter of picking your best players but those that can apply the game plan. There will be surprises even for Blues supporters.

It's much too early picking what may be the starting side but the good news (fingers crossed) is that Carlton hasn't many injured.
Walker will be touch and go, even leading into round 4 and Giles is out for the best part of the year.

View attachment 104031

Carrazzo, Cripps, Boekhorst and Tutt will also have claims dependent on what happens in the next couple of months.

Pretty much agree with this side as it stands but there is room for some to stake their claim.

We have made a real effort to get players into the side with good kicking skills. With 3 tall forwards who are good contested marks, I'm not sure if we will be looking to retain possession and move the ball like Hawthorn, or whether we will keep our boundary line safety in the back half plan followed by a long kick into the forward 50 or back into the corridor if there is opportunity.

We will still be vulnerable out wide with uncontested footy unless the likes of Boekhorst and Viojo-Rainbow come in quickly so we will be going the contested root, utilising the run of Yarran, and the kicking skills of Sheehan from the back half.

Like Harker I do see our game plan being very up in the air until we reveal something in the preseason games. I suspect Mick will only tweak what works for him because he is big on preventing turnovers in the back half, big on contested footy further up the ground so he'll still have his share of harder bodies doing grunt work, but he has also lamented our lack of run (which we had a lot of in 2011) so I expect that he'll settle his inside mids quickly (maybe Bell and will be praying for Cripps) and try to relieve Judd and get Murphy and Gibbs to be first receivers rather than too inside and too outside.

So many questions ... it's kind of exciting.

 

[Persevering Saint]

Jesus...............you're somewhat advanced here Persevering Saint

Hehe, yeah mate, we're doing a thing here called "Season in 3 weeks", where we look through a new game every day, Round by round, pretty much until the NAB games start - kinda as a way to predict the whole season a bit more accurately, and get some banter going.

Part of the motivation for me getting it going was the crap that teams like yours and mine are getting on the wooden spoon thread, actually. There's just these blanket "they'll finish bottom" comments, instead of people actually looking at each of our draws, analysing the games, and working out how many we'll win or lose.

Plus, it's a nice way to keep the Saints board ticking over during a quiet time of year.

 

[Persevering Saint]

Like Harker I do see our game plan being very up in the air until we reveal something in the preseason games. I suspect Mick will only tweak what works for him because he is big on preventing turnovers in the back half, big on contested footy further up the ground so he'll still have his share of harder bodies doing grunt work, but he has also lamented our lack of run (which we had a lot of in 2011) so I expect that he'll settle his inside mids quickly (maybe Bell and will be praying for Cripps) and try to relieve Judd and get Murphy and Gibbs to be first receivers rather than too inside and too outside.

So many questions ... it's kind of exciting.

That sounds fascinating! We're in a similar situation. It sounds like last year, Richo HAD a gameplan for us, which was very heavily towards a press. But the kids just didn't have the physical strength to do it - and even if they did, Richo hadn't had a full preseason with them (coming in so late), and so hadn't been able to teach it to them properly. We're expecting to see the game plan more clearly this year.

So yeah, lots of questions for our fans, too!

 

[joop]

Thank **** we dont have to put Gwilt on Menzel this year.

 

[SK_MD_#7]

Thank **** we dont have to put Gwilt on Menzel this year.

Hopefully we can have a fit list this year! so many last season it was ridiculous.

 

[Periphery]

I want us to flog Carlton, but I just can't confidently say that we will at this stage. This one could totally depend on injuries, what happens in the games prior and who turns up on the day.

They pretty easily won both of their games against us last year and while I don't think they have really improved their list, they haven't significantly weakened it. Their list is probably better in the short term than most give them credit for and they probably will win this game. We should be flogging this absolute shit out of them in a few years though, as our list is much better positioned in the long term.

 

[CALL ME SNAKE]

If we keep playing in NZ and keep losing its going to bloody hard to convince the young Kiwi kids to jump on board. Kids like winners. You can have as many promotions or footy clinics you like. But the best promotion is winning.
Its gonna be another long hard season for us. We all know teams should give 100% everyweek but for some reason whether it be a milestone game or you got a kick up the arse the week before. Every now and then a team lifts and plays above themselves.
Take us Vs Ess or Freo last yr.
IMO this is a must win game. Having a win over there on ANZAC day infront of a crowd we are trying to impress would be a big shot in the arm for us.
( thats a good 'morale' shot in the arm. Not a Bombers type naughty shot in the arm)
Even if we are spent for the match after this id like us to throw the kitchen sink at Carlton and win this game.
Carlton are a bit like Collingwood at the minute ( im sure they will love being compared with the enemy ) They are pretty hard to predict if they are rising or falling. But they do still have some quality players and have had the better of us recently.
Saints hopefully ( maybe wishfully? ) in a close one.

 

[HARKER]

I want us to flog Carlton, but I just can't confidently say that we will at this stage. This one could totally depend on injuries, what happens in the games prior and who turns up on the day.
They pretty easily won both of their games against us last year and while I don't think they have really improved their list, they haven't significantly weakened it. Their list is probably better in the short term than most give them credit for and they probably will win this game. We should be flogging this absolute shit out of them in a few years though, as our list is much better positioned in the long term.

Not sure why this seems to roll off the tongue so easily from opposition clubs' supporters

I'm sure you all believe/want to believe what you're saying but I'm just not so sure, why.

 

[Winners Only]

Saints first win in Wellington!

 

[Periphery]

Not sure why this seems to roll off the tongue so easily from opposition clubs' supporters

I'm sure you all believe/want to believe what you're saying but I'm just not so sure, why.

I might have got a bit carried away with the "flogging the absolute shit out of them" comment.

I just think that in a few years our list will be in a better place and we should move ahead of you guys. We might meet you back at the top at some stage after that, but before that happens we should have a period where we have the advantage. In the short term you guys should have the advantage though.

 

[HARKER]

I might have got a bit carried away with the "flogging the absolute shit out of them" comment.

I just think that in a few years our list will be in a better place and we should move ahead of you guys. We might meet you back at the top at some stage after that, but before that happens we should have a period where we have the advantage. In the short term you guys should have the advantage though.

Many seem to sing the praises of 19 & 20 year olds who have had a few good games in their first year or two but forget that you need 35+ good players on ones list to make real headway and even then, they have to slot into what their coach wants them to do or otherwise the game-plan falls apart.

I just find it somewhat strange when some rattle off any and every young name, as though they're all going to be superstars. It just doesn't work like that

 

[Periphery]

Many seem to sing the praises of 19 & 20 year olds who have had a few good games in their first year or two but forget that you need 35+ good players on ones list to make real headway and even then, they have to slot into what their coach wants them to do or otherwise the game-plan falls apart.

I just find it somewhat strange when some rattle off any and every young name, as though they're all going to be superstars. It just doesn't work like that

Fair enough. Both lists are taking very different approaches and are in very different stages and it'll be very interesting to see where they end up in 4 years time.

 

[maanco]

Many seem to sing the praises of 19 & 20 year olds who have had a few good games in their first year or two but forget that you need 35+ good players on ones list to make real headway and even then, they have to slot into what their coach wants them to do or otherwise the game-plan falls apart.

I just find it somewhat strange when some rattle off any and every young name, as though they're all going to be superstars. It just doesn't work like that

The thing is we have Good Depth through our young kids, and most have the potential to be part of a best 22 premiership side. It will be difficult come years end to Delist 3 or more of them.

 

[HARKER]

The thing is we have Good Depth through our young kids, and most have the potential to be part of a best 22 premiership side. It will be difficult come years end to Delist 3 or more of them.

Please don't take this the wrong way but the conversation often starts off with it will be hard to move on some players, yet by the end of the year one may be happy to see some go.

I think I may be right in saying that some of your best players are close to the end of their tenure at the club.
Riewoldt is simply irreplaceable and no McCartin, Lee or Spencer White will walk straight into his shoes. Nick was as good as any player I've seen and at his best, as good as and at times better than Wayne Carey. You then also have to cover for the likes of Montagna, Fisher and Dempster.
Big ask for some fresh names to become anywhere near as good as those guys from the get go. It takes time.

The Saints have taken an intentional course of action and good on them for that but asking kids to become super-stars in just a couple of years really is much too big an ask and it just doesn't happen that way.......but you're right.......there are some good prospects coming through........it's just that most of them will have to come through and quickly which makes things somewhat tough.

 

[SaintLex]

I'd be more confident if it was at Etihad. We have to get a win at Wellington some time soon.

 

[maanco]

Please don't take this the wrong way but the conversation often starts off with it will be hard to move on some players, yet by the end of the year one may be happy to see some go.

I think I may be right in saying that some of your best players are close to the end of their tenure at the club.
Riewoldt is simply irreplaceable and no McCartin, Lee or Spencer White will walk straight into his shoes. Nick was as good as any player I've seen and at his best, as good as and at times better than Wayne Carey. You then also have to cover for the likes of Montagna, Fisher and Dempster.
Big ask for some fresh names to become anywhere near as good as those guys from the get go. It takes time.

The Saints have taken an intentional course of action and good on them for that but asking kids to become super-stars in just a couple of years really is much too big an ask and it just doesn't happen that way.......but you're right.......there are some good prospects coming through........it's just that most of them will have to come through and quickly which makes things somewhat tough.

100% agree that it will be tough over the next few years, but the "future is bright!" unlike the dark "blue" days to come for you lot.

 

[HARKER]

100% agree that it will be tough over the next few years, but the "future is bright!" unlike the dark "blue" days to come for you lot.

Yes, the future does look bright for The Saints given the tough stance you've taken..............Good on you guys.