Skippos's 2015 Draft Resource

[Jordie_tackles]

Cripps at 48
Don't know what to make of that

Where he rated him pre draft, no hindsight

 

[Bring back Bas]

Skippos, if Adelaide were to do a pick swap with St Kilda I see these as the two most likely options:

1) Adelaide: 13 & 28 (1889 points) - St Kilda: 5 (1878 points)
2) Adelaide: 9, 28, 32 & 68 (2789 points) - St Kilda: 5, 24 & 60 (2809 points)

Given the depth of the draft and the players likely to be around at each pick, what option do you think best suits Adelaide and who could they pick? St Kilda would obviously prefer option 1 but that is assuming Essendon will accept pick 13 for Carlisle.

 

[eth-dog]

Skippos, if Adelaide were to do a pick swap with St Kilda I see these as the two most likely options:

1) Adelaide: 13 & 28 (1889 points) - St Kilda: 5 (1878 points)
2) Adelaide: 9, 28, 32 & 68 (2789 points) - St Kilda: 5, 24 & 60 (2809 points)

Given the depth of the draft and the players likely to be around at each pick, what option do you think best suits Adelaide and who could they pick? St Kilda would obviously prefer option 1 but that is assuming Essendon will accept pick 13 for Carlisle.

What if Essendon did the swapping?

Adelaide trade 9 and 13 (2681 points) for Essendon's 4 and 23 (2819 points)

Essendon on trade 13 and Carlisle for 5 and 24.

Using the points system that values Carlisle around pick 9.

 

[Gmod23]

What if Essendon did the swapping?

Adelaide trade 9 and 13 (2681 points) for Essendon's 4 and 23 (2819 points)

Essendon on trade 13 and Carlisle for 5 and 24.

Using the points system that values Carlisle around pick 9.

I think the points systems undervalues early first round selections. I wouldn't trade pick 5 for 9 + 23. I would want something better than 23 for even a 4 spot downgrade.

 

[eth-dog]

I think the points systems undervalues early first round selections. I wouldn't trade pick 5 for 9 + 23. I would want something better than 23 for even a 4 spot downgrade.

That may be true, but St. Kilda still get Carlisle as well downgrading a first round pick.

 

[dlanod]

I think the points systems undervalues early first round selections. I wouldn't trade pick 5 for 9 + 23. I would want something better than 23 for even a 4 spot downgrade.

Adelaide dropped back four spots from 10 to 14 last year for a 12 pick upgrade from 47 to 35. It looks like the clubs have already been using the draft pick values or close enough to.

 

[Gmod23]

Adelaide dropped back four spots from 10 to 14 last year for a 12 pick upgrade from 47 to 35. It looks like the clubs have already been using the draft pick values or close enough to.

I would be surprised if clubs did it this year, particularly when it is a more shallow draft than usual.

 

[cammo6556]

Skippos
What Number do you think, C.AhChee will go in the Draft the same with D.Rioli
If available would the AFC draft them

I Enjoy reading your Forum Great Work

Im not Skippos by any stretch but I reckon we would consider Ah Chee or Milera with our first. If we took either of those, I doubt Rioli would be on the shopping list.

 

[blueiris]

Im not Skippos by any stretch but I reckon we would consider Ah Chee or Milera with our first. If we took either of those, I doubt Rioli would be on the shopping list.

Apparently you guys want pick 5 so you can get Francis

 

[cammo6556]

Apparently you guys want pick 5 so you can get Francis

Heard that. Not convinced we will give up 9 and 13 to do it though?

 

[Gmod23]

Heard that. Not convinced we will give up 9 and 13 to do it though?

Francis is likely pick 3, so little point in getting 5.

 

[cammo6556]

Francis is likely pick 3, so little point in getting 5.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but there may be something/one else for GC at 3?

Clarification: heard rumours of a potential small slide.

 

[D2D3]

Skippos, if Adelaide were to do a pick swap with St Kilda I see these as the two most likely options:

1) Adelaide: 13 & 28 (1889 points) - St Kilda: 5 (1878 points)
2) Adelaide: 9, 28, 32 & 68 (2789 points) - St Kilda: 5, 24 & 60 (2809 points)

Given the depth of the draft and the players likely to be around at each pick, what option do you think best suits Adelaide and who could they pick? St Kilda would obviously prefer option 1 but that is assuming Essendon will accept pick 13 for Carlisle.

As a Saints fan I think the second deal is the most fair for both parties... Obviously I would love #9 and #13 but that does sound steep for Adelaide unless we find something else to add to #5. Also for me #13 runs the risk of Essendon then wanting both of those where even they would have to admit #9 is clearly fair for Carlisile. The only thing is trading out #24 might make dealing with collingwood difficult for us. I hope we trade #5 to Adelaide just because I don't want the bombers to get their hands on it haha

 

[Gmod23]

This thread is missing someone.......

 

[Skippos]

This thread is missing someone.......

Yeah I'm without a computer again, power jack playing up so it won't charge, will respond to all once I get a keyboard and my notes in front of me.

 

[wonga3]

Hey Skippos, what team would you like to see Cameron Hewett drafted too?
Love your work mate

 

[nottenthagain]

Hey Skippos, what team would you like to see Cameron Hewett drafted too?
Love your work mate

Hopefully the Swans so he can play with his brother

 

[Matt loves Essendon]

Note: Aware the draft won't go for 92 picks. Just squeezing in a few extras, assume it's the start of the rookie or whatever. I expect the late academy/f-s kids to still go around the end of the ND, though.

Unluckies:
Will Combe, Campbell Wildman, Kyle Presbury, Tom Doedee, Thomas Glen, Theo Thompson, David Cuningham, Josh Schoenfeld, Tom Phillips, Will Sexton, Tom Templeton, Chris Jansen, Bailey Williams, Darcy Cameron, Bailey Rogers, Shane Yarran, Michael Hagan, Josh Minogue, Dylan McDonald, Max Canfield, Matthew Perry, Levi Ridley, Thomas Cameron, John Shaw,Clint Hinchcliffe, Brendan Dew, Josh Minogue, Bruno Laguda, Tom Bennett, Jack Watson, Mark Kovacevic, Harry Cross, Ryan Gardner, Thomas Jok, Jack Firns, Dan Houston, Brayden Hackett, Declan Mountford, Lachlan Tiziani

So you reckon Josh Dunkley will enter the draft as he wants to stay in Victoria? Isn't it a big risk for Gold Coast to take him then? Might want to go home after two years.

 

[Sashand88]

After Daniel Rioli's great combine testing, where do you see him ranking now?
And how does he compare with someone like Ah Chee?

 

[Skippos]

Skippos if the opportunity for Essendon to pick either Francis or Parish, who would they take?

Parish.

Hey skip, when is your next update for the phantom draft planned?

Also do you reckon parsons would be in the 25-55 draft range?

This Friday.

Skippos
What Number do you think, C.AhChee will go in the Draft the same with D.Rioli
If available would the AFC draft them

I Enjoy reading your Forum Great Work

Ah Chee - 8-17.
Rioli - 25-50.

I suspect we'd consider Ah Chee. Not sure on Rioli as we're now pretty sorted in that area.

 

[Skippos]

Cripps at 48
Don't know what to make of that

As said numerous times, it's a pre-draft ranking, based solely on how I rated them before they entered the system.

Skippos, if Adelaide were to do a pick swap with St Kilda I see these as the two most likely options:

1) Adelaide: 13 & 28 (1889 points) - St Kilda: 5 (1878 points)
2) Adelaide: 9, 28, 32 & 68 (2789 points) - St Kilda: 5, 24 & 60 (2809 points)

Given the depth of the draft and the players likely to be around at each pick, what option do you think best suits Adelaide and who could they pick? St Kilda would obviously prefer option 1 but that is assuming Essendon will accept pick 13 for Carlisle.

Even if Hawthorn hadn't entered the frame, I'm very confident no pck swap would exist.

The AFL academy picks valuation is just a basic logarithmic function.

entering 1 = 3000, 73 = 0 in order to run a log function and the result is the exact AFL draft pick index. Contracts, games played, real world relevant information has no bearing on it. It's just a simple maths function which is simply absurd. The whole idea has been so poorly implemented and the result is an index which just doesn't match real valuations. You take 5 over 13 and 28 nearly every day, likewise you take 5, 24 and 60 over 9, 28, 32 and 68 every single day as well. But the index doesn't reflect that. It's a massive gripe of mine.

 

[Skippos]

Hey Skippos, what team would you like to see Cameron Hewett drafted too?
Love your work mate

Not really fussed where he goes. I'd suggest it'd be best for him to go anywhere as he's no certainty to get drafted.

So you reckon Josh Dunkley will enter the draft as he wants to stay in Victoria? Isn't it a big risk for Gold Coast to take him then? Might want to go home after two years.

He's the best IM on the board, you take him and back your system in to keep him. In turning down f/s he's just ensuring he's got a 60% chance of remaining in Victoria instead of 0%. If he goes interstate, he's still in the same position he'd have been going to Sydney; no worse off.

After Daniel Rioli's great combine testing, where do you see him ranking now?
And how does he compare with someone like Ah Chee?

25-50. 25 a bit high but in this draft someone could bolt. Small forwards rarely go early, even the best ones are often available in the 30s.

Ah Chee's more of a midfielder and just feels like a more natural footballer. Like his mental side more, and by foot he's much better especially over short to medium distance.

 

[scoota10]

Thank you for your responce

So who do you rate Better of these 2 Milera or Ah Chee

 

[JAMES_B_101]

With the trading of future draft picks now allowed, there is a greater interest in the bottom agers. Who is/are looking like the top tall forwards in the 2016 draft?

 

[KissKiss]

You take 5 over 13 and 28 nearly every day, likewise you take 5, 24 and 60 over 9, 28, 32 and 68 every single day as well. But the index doesn't reflect that. It's a massive gripe of mine.

It only works for academy teams trying to make up points. There is a fair bit of discussion about Brisbane being better off trading a pick like 17 for multiple 2nd or 3rd round picks. Can actually be a bit of a win win trade