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Certified Legendary Thread Squiggle 2017

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Port may be flat track bullies but it seems percentage is very important this year in deciding ladder positions. There will remain doubts over Port's ability to beat top teams, until they beat a team in the top 8, but at the moment they are doing the right thing, and performing at or above expectations.
 
eagles80 said:
Port have beaten Gold Coast, Carlton, Sydney, Brisbane, Fremantle. All those teams outside the top 8. Need to beat top 8 sides to be considered a contender in 2017
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I totally agree, but against you guys we were around the mark. GWS and Adelaide are most likely the top 2-3 teams and we didnt lost by much.

Just need to start beating the better teams though.
 
vozzon said:
I totally agree, but against you guys we were around the mark. GWS and Adelaide are most likely the top 2-3 teams and we didnt lost by much.

Just need to start beating the better teams though.
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On the Eagles game, it was apparently the fifth highest negative differential of all time in terms of inside 50s vs the losing opposition team (since the stat was recorded).

It was very much a smash and grab and no-one would've been surprised if Port won based on the key stats (disposals, inside 50s, clearances etc).

Port are thereabouts and Squiggle reflects this. Obviously the fans will be hoping they can start banking the 4 points soon against strong sides but they haven't been disgraced - yet.
 

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nanganator said:
Port have only played 3 teams inside the top 8 and have failed to beat all of them. Why does squiggle rate them so highly? Their two best wins have been against teams currently ranked 9th and 12th
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Because we haven't lost significantly to any of them. Losing is shit, but we haven't really ballsed up a game hard. We've lost by: 18 points, 30 and 10. In two of the three games I'd argue we've been competitive, or the game has been uncertain at some point, excluding (funnily enough) the WCE game where I think we just closed the gap near the end.

We're playing a pretty different game plan from previous seasons and it appears to be doing ok. We still need to take a couple of scalps, but we've also made teams look monumentally terrible with our pressure and then continued to absolutely murder them. I don't think anyone expected us to be where we are right now at this point in time, and I reckon we look to be on a trajectory of between 5th - 8th based on the ones we've lost vs the ones we've won.
 
nanganator said:
Port have only played 3 teams inside the top 8 and have failed to beat all of them. Why does squiggle rate them so highly? Their two best wins have been against teams currently ranked 9th and 12th
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Because the squiggle rates teams that belt sides - especially away - and Port have had 4 absolute beltings now - 2 of them on the road.
 
We've won big, lost small, scored well in every game and haven't conceded any big scores.

Looking around the web most prediction models have Port doing pretty well - generally a sign of a good team in any sport is they win big often and don't lose by a lot when they do. It's no surprise statistical prediction systems look upon Port's season so far favorably, even if at face value they do look to be overrating Port a little bit at this moment.
 

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I must say I think that the capacity to thrash lower sides is an important part of establishing your credibility as a legit top side. Sure you need to be able to beat the other top sides when it really counts but if you can't unleash a belting now and again then I would question your credentials as a top side.

Its one of the reasons why I know Essendon aren't that great at the moment. Even when we get out to a big early lead we just let our opponents right back in the game and barely fall over the line by a few goals (or lose).
 
Round 8, 2017​

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Animated!

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Squiggle is very excited about Port Adelaide this week, because keeping an interstate team to 38 points in one of their home games is a big deal, normally. It may be less so when the game is played in China, and the nominal home team has a whinge beforehand about how they don't even want to be there. Nevertheless: An excellent defensive performance by the Power, timed for maximum gloating value with Adelaide losing at home.

Adelaide have fallen swiftly for two reasons. Firstly, both weeks they've lost by a lot, which is never good. You don't want that. Secondly, they've been held to low scores, when high-scoring was the main thing they were good at. It's concerning because unbalanced teams (as Adelaide are, being an attack specialist) are fragile: They often win a lot of home & away games, or run close, but come unstuck when it counts. So the task for Adelaide now is to prove that they're more than a one-trick pony with a trick that's been worked out.

Melbourne are the other big winner, and Essendon and Sydney had positive weeks. In the Swans' case, it was the first time all year they outperformed expectations. Lowered expectations, that is. If you keep sucking often enough, eventually the bar gets so low you can't help but clear it. And clear it they did! So that's something. In fact, it's enough to make finals more likely than not:

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That's Richmond sliding out of the top 8, despite their excellent comeback win over the Dockers. Honestly, at three-quarter time, when we were down 35-65, I didn't think we could win it. Then we kicked 5 goals unanswered goals to hit the lead with only 21 seconds left on the lock - an unloseable position! I leaped up in the stands and cheered my lungs out, thinking, "Wow, this is so un-Richmond-like!"

Oh, but then it was. Suddenly it was all very, very Richmond-like.

Fortunately, at this point, my heart is already about 99% scar tissue. I mean, you can only stab me there so many times before I cease to feel anything.

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Adelaide's grip on top spot loosened considerably this week, and a bunch of teams benefited, because someone has to finish top 4, even if right now no-one seems like they want to. Essendon's win over Geelong opened up some bottom-2 real estate, with Hawthorn, Carlton, and Gold Coast the most likely buyers.

Fortunately in these turbulent times Brisbane provide some reliability. To Brisbane fans, all this talk of 2017's unpredictability is probably pretty grating, because every week the Lions are getting beaten by exactly as much as you'd expect.

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Speaking of the Lions' next opponent, Adelaide are still #1 on Flagpole, even if the Season Predictor is tipping them out of the top two.

Live squiggle!

Squiggle dials!
 
nameless said:
Port seem to be in the position West Coast were at a few years ago.
Demolishing lower teams, but not beating those above.

It looks good on Squiggle, and can be a sign of developing into a top side, but there is still work to be done.
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Definitely work to be done. Coaches believe we are on the right track but much improvement is required still.
 
As was mentioned before, the Squiggle grades on comparative score to what was expected, not on Win/Loss. If you look at the squiggle for Port Adelaide, after consecutive losses to Adelaide and GWS in Rounds 3 and 4, Port actually ended up slightly ahead of where it had been on the Squiggle before, because they had been predicted to lose by more for both games.

Of course, they'll have to do better to win this year - it's no good for Grand Final purposes to be the consistently fourth-best team. But the Squiggle does seem to be tracking them accurately, the exaggerated result this week caused by Gold Coast's very poor score aside.
 
nanganator said:
Port have only played 3 teams inside the top 8 and have failed to beat all of them. Why does squiggle rate them so highly? Their two best wins have been against teams currently ranked 9th and 12th
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Squiggle will continue to rate Port highly while these big wins continue. A few Hawthorn-like wins from their flag years, i.e. winning by less than 2 goals against well-placed teams will give Port a higher real rating.
 

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Poor West Coast. Perennially 5th. :(

The Crows, Giants, Dogs and Power could all be disbanded tomorrow and the Squiggle still wouldn't put us in the Top 4.
 
MKMatty said:
#FlatTrackBullies
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We'll take that! It's better than losing to Carlton and Brisbane, defeats that have cost us a finals spot for the past two years.
 
Chiwigi said:
We'll take that! It's better than losing to Carlton and Brisbane, defeats that have cost us a finals spot for the past two years.
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It's a sacred tag, embrace it. From one interstate team hated by the Vic Media to another.
 
MKMatty said:
It's a sacred tag, embrace it. From one interstate team hated by the Vic Media to another.
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It's a strange sledge.

They are basically saying you smash teams below, but don't beat teams above you.

Isn't that how a league table develops?
 

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Certified Legendary Thread Squiggle 2017

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