TDU 2017 & 2018

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GotTheGoodes said:
Caleb fired back today after what would've pretty much been his horror stage yesterday. The kid has some guts I reckon. Great performance again so far this year. Exciting.
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Wednesday wasn't too bad for Caleb and the other sprinters - Paracombe is nothing compared to the Pyrenees, Alps, Dolomites and other mountain top finishes they use in Europe.

Caleb isn't there to win the GC, he's there to win the sprints on the flat stages - and he's doing an outstanding job of that so far (3 from 3 including the criteria on Sunday). He wouldn't have been disheartened by his personal result on the climb to Paracombe - only in the failure of Gerrans and Chavez to take advantage of the work he did for them on that stage.
 
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Vader said:
Wednesday wasn't too bad for Caleb and the other sprinters - Paracombe is nothing compared to the Pyrenees, Alps, Dolomites and other mountain top finishes they use in Europe.

Caleb isn't there to win the GC, he's there to win the sprints on the flat stages - and he's doing an outstanding job of that so far (3 from 3 including the criteria on Sunday). He wouldn't have been disheartened by his personal result on the climb to Paracombe - only in the failure of Gerrans and Chavez to take advantage of the work he did for them on that stage.
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Oh yeah for sure. Can't fault anything you've said & I completely agree. Just good to see him put in a fair amount of effort on Wed then back that up with a solid ride Thursday. Shows some maturity in his body/energy management - I.e. he didn't go all/nothing on Wednesday, but gave as much as he could while still being right to go the following day.
 
GotTheGoodes said:
Oh yeah for sure. Can't fault anything you've said & I completely agree. Just good to see him put in a fair amount of effort on Wed then back that up with a solid ride Thursday. Shows some maturity in his body/energy management - I.e. he didn't go all/nothing on Wednesday, but gave as much as he could while still being right to go the following day.
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He did a lot of work for the team on Wednesday. Saw him a number of times with that ochre coloured jersey bulging, due to the number of water bottles he was carrying to the front of the peleton. It helps that the weather has been a lot cooler since Tuesday, and the TDU stages are relatively short.

I'm liking what I've seen from Ewan, but he really hasn't had that much competition. Sagan is the only other really quick sprinter in the race, and he's nowhere near his peak fitness. Still, you can only beat the riders that the opposition teams select, and Ewan has done exactly that. Hasn't put a foot wrong so far in the race.
 

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sobrave said:
Interesting to see the vic tourism minister chuck the TDU under a bus. Melbourne is now the cycling capital of Australia and this one day road race is the biggest cycling event in australia. Flog
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He's been doing that for years, petty jealousy really. It's a good race the Ocean Road Race, but it's not in the same league yet.
 
I'm wondering about the stage to Uraidla. So many questions...

Firstly, why are they doing the climb up Norton Summit Rd? If they want a climb which will sort the men from the boys, then why not choose one of the steeper routes up that hill? There are at least 3 other routes to Norton Summit from Magill, all of which are steeper than Norton Summit Rd.

When I was a young kid I used to live near Norton Summit. Even as an 8yo, I was able to ride up the Norton Summit Rd without any difficulty, on a bike with no gears. It was a long uphill drag for my young legs, but the gradient prevented few difficulties. The routes I suggest below invariably had me getting off and pushing my bike up the hill. If I could ride up that hill as an 8yo, then it's not going to be much of a test for a professional rider.

So, here are the alternative routes:
  • Option 1 - Old Norton Summit Rd. This follows along the valley, instead of turning left onto Norton Summit Rd, before climbing steeply out of the valley, directly into Norton Summit.
  • Option 2 - Ridgeland Drive, Woodland Way, and Teringie Drive, rejoining Norton Summit Rd 1-2km before the town. Ridgeland Drive is far, far more challenging than the New Norton Summit Rd. It goes straight up the ridge. It's a lot steeper than Norton Summit Rd and has a higher peak (before rejoining the main road).
  • Option 3 - Ride all the way from the bottom of Woodland Way, and onto Teringie Drive. Once again, this follows a ridge line, and is steeper and more direct than the comparative gentle and slowly winding Norton Summit Rd.
All of these routes would do a better job of separating the climbers from the sprinters.

As an added bonus for me, options 2 & 3 would take the riders past the house where I lived until the age of 10. I can see why that's not one of the tour director's considerations.

Secondly, why they put the finish at Uraidla? Uraidla is a long way from the top of the Norton Summit Rd climb, and the route from Norton Summit to Uraidla is nothing that should concern any professional rider. It has a number of rolling hills, but nothing that should worry the sprinters (OK, Cavendish can't get over anything higher than a cigarette paper - but he's not riding the TDU). There's enough time/distance for any dropped riders to recover, getting back into the peleton well before the finish, and robbing the stage of it's significance.

This is supposed to be the 2nd most important stage of the TDU, behind the Queen Stage at Willunga. I think the course they've chosen is unlikely to create the time gaps that they're hoping for. Paracombe and the Corkscrew are steep enough to create time gaps, and the finishes are designed to prevent riders from catching back up after they've been dropped. Norton Summit Rd and a finish at Uraidla probably won't achieve this.

The only reason I can think of for choosing Norton Summit Rd is the scenery. Morialta is definitely scenic, and you really don't get quite the same cinematography with the other routes I suggested. Is it really worth compromising the race route just for some pretty pictures?
 
Vader said:
I'm wondering about the stage to Uraidla. So many questions...

Firstly, why are they doing the climb up Norton Summit Rd? If they want a climb which will sort the men from the boys, then why not choose one of the steeper routes up that hill? There are at least 3 other routes to Norton Summit from Magill, all of which are steeper than Norton Summit Rd.

When I was a young kid I used to live near Norton Summit. Even as an 8yo, I was able to ride up the Norton Summit Rd without any difficulty, on a bike with no gears. It was a long uphill drag for my young legs, but the gradient prevented few difficulties. The routes I suggest below invariably had me getting off and pushing my bike up the hill. If I could ride up that hill as an 8yo, then it's not going to be much of a test for a professional rider.

So, here are the alternative routes:
  • Option 1 - Old Norton Summit Rd. This follows along the valley, instead of turning left onto Norton Summit Rd, before climbing steeply out of the valley, directly into Norton Summit.
  • Option 2 - Ridgeland Drive, Woodland Way, and Teringie Drive, rejoining Norton Summit Rd 1-2km before the town. Ridgeland Drive is far, far more challenging than the New Norton Summit Rd. It goes straight up the ridge. It's a lot steeper than Norton Summit Rd and has a higher peak (before rejoining the main road).
  • Option 3 - Ride all the way from the bottom of Woodland Way, and onto Teringie Drive. Once again, this follows a ridge line, and is steeper and more direct than the comparative gentle and slowly winding Norton Summit Rd.
All of these routes would do a better job of separating the climbers from the sprinters.

As an added bonus for me, options 2 & 3 would take the riders past the house where I lived until the age of 10. I can see why that's not one of the tour director's considerations.

Secondly, why they put the finish at Uraidla? Uraidla is a long way from the top of the Norton Summit Rd climb, and the route from Norton Summit to Uraidla is nothing that should concern any professional rider. It has a number of rolling hills, but nothing that should worry the sprinters (OK, Cavendish can't get over anything higher than a cigarette paper - but he's not riding the TDU). There's enough time/distance for any dropped riders to recover, getting back into the peleton well before the finish, and robbing the stage of it's significance.

This is supposed to be the 2nd most important stage of the TDU, behind the Queen Stage at Willunga. I think the course they've chosen is unlikely to create the time gaps that they're hoping for. Paracombe and the Corkscrew are steep enough to create time gaps, and the finishes are designed to prevent riders from catching back up after they've been dropped. Norton Summit Rd and a finish at Uraidla probably won't achieve this.

The only reason I can think of for choosing Norton Summit Rd is the scenery. Morialta is definitely scenic, and you really don't get quite the same cinematography with the other routes I suggested. Is it really worth compromising the race route just for some pretty pictures?
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Yeah, it's a shitty stage. But it gives a chance for guys like McCarthy and Haas to get some seconds over Porte before Wilunga. Turtur is losing the plot. He needs to shake s**t up. I always believe there should be a 2-4km prologue instead of the ******* classic. Use that to open the Tour Down Under on the Sunday with Stage 1 starting on Tuesday. Or have the Classic, then the prologue on Monday and Stage 1 on Tuesday. You don't need to bring time trial bikes for it unless you want to, but no one would for that distance, so there's no problems about logistics.

The classic is ******* pointless. Have the prologue open it up and the first Ochre Jersey.
 

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The style of the TDU will never have an ITT and neither should it - You put in a decent prologue of 8 or 9 kms and a Dennis will wrap up the GC which is not what is needed - And this is even taking into account how boring ITT's are as a TV spectacle.

We have to remember that Ewan's lead out rider Mezgec isn't at the TDU - Mezgec will provide Ewan with two or three gilt edged chances at the TDF - Will add that MS needs to have more confidence in Kluge - They should be the two lead out riders for Ewan - i was impressed with Ewan's initiative in disregarding his lead out today and surf wheels - Have Mezgec and Kluge on side and this is not required.
 
yaco55 said:
The style of the TDU will never have an ITT and neither should it - You put in a decent prologue of 8 or 9 kms and a Dennis will wrap up the GC which is not what is needed - And this is even taking into account how boring ITT's are as a TV spectacle.

.
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That's why you make it 1-3km.
 
Sasquatch said:
Yeah, it's a shitty stage. But it gives a chance for guys like McCarthy and Haas to get some seconds over Porte before Wilunga. Turtur is losing the plot. He needs to shake s**t up. I always believe there should be a 2-4km prologue instead of the ******* classic. Use that to open the Tour Down Under on the Sunday with Stage 1 starting on Tuesday. Or have the Classic, then the prologue on Monday and Stage 1 on Tuesday. You don't need to bring time trial bikes for it unless you want to, but no one would for that distance, so there's no problems about logistics.

The classic is ******* pointless. Have the prologue open it up and the first Ochre Jersey.
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I don't know about McCarthy & Haas. It looks tailor made for Sagan, and I would be shocked if there were any other winner. That said, I think Greipel has a very good chance of making it to the finish line with the leading group, so I wouldn't discount his chances. Not so sure about Caleb Ewan.
 
Vader said:
I don't know about McCarthy & Haas. It looks tailor made for Sagan, and I would be shocked if there were any other winner. That said, I think Greipel has a very good chance of making it to the finish line with the leading group, so I wouldn't discount his chances. Not so sure about Caleb Ewan.
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If Greipel can make it to the finish, Ewan definitely will. You're forgetting that McCarthy and Haas need bonus seconds for the overall as they can't risk being on equal time to Porte on Willunga unless they think they can beat him. Bora will ride for McCarthy that stage just like they will ride for him today. If they are clever that is. If they want stage wins and think McCarthy can beat Porte on Willunga, Sagan will win that stage.

I think BMC will push a hard tempo on that stage though. With the heat and what not, it could break up a bit. But yeah, I don't think Sagan will be winning it due to McCarthy needing bonus seconds.
 
Sasquatch said:
If Greipel can make it to the finish, Ewan definitely will. You're forgetting that McCarthy and Haas need bonus seconds for the overall as they can't risk being on equal time to Porte on Willunga unless they think they can beat him. Bora will ride for McCarthy that stage just like they will ride for him today. If they are clever that is. If they want stage wins and think McCarthy can beat Porte on Willunga, Sagan will win that stage.

I think BMC will push a hard tempo on that stage though. With the heat and what not, it could break up a bit. But yeah, I don't think Sagan will be winning it due to McCarthy needing bonus seconds.
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Greipel has a surprising ability to get over some decent sized hills. Cavendish needs to hold onto his support car when going up anything higher than a cigarette paper, but Greipel is surprisingly good climber for a rider of his size. I think he'd struggle if they took one of the steeper routes from Magill to Norton Summit, but he should have no problems with the gently winding gradients of Norton Summit Rd.

I'm not sure about Ewan's climbing prowess. He did make it to the finish in the lead group at Mt Bunninyong, so he's obviously not the worst climber of all time. Whether he's good enough to make it up Norton Summit Rd with the lead group, or close enough to catch them before the finish, is another matter entirely. I wouldn't rule him out, but I don't think his climbing pedigree is quite as good as Sagan & Greipel.

As for the "Bora will ride for McCarthy if they're smart" theory, it's flawed for a few reasons...

Firstly, I don't think the stage is tough enough to eliminate the faster finishers. I don't care how motivated they are by the bonus seconds - the stage just isn't tough enough to eliminate the faster riders, and they're not going to win a sprint finish if the likes of Greipel (and maybe Ewan) are still there at the end.

Secondly, even assuming that the likes of Greipel are eliminated, that still doesn't make McCarthy a likely stage winner. There are just too many puncheurs around who should get to the finish with the lead group, with a faster finish than McCarthy can muster. Haas is much faster than McCarthy, and he proved it in the 2nd intermediate sprint yesterday. Gerrans will be riding for Porte, but I'm sure BMC would be happy for him to sprint for the finish, taking bonus seconds away from Porte's opponents. There are probably others I haven't even considered...

A Haas-McCarthy finish is still a bad result for Bora. A Haas-Gerrans-McCarthy podium is even worse. Their best bet is to minimise Haas' time gains over McCarthy - and that means allowing Sagan to sprint for the win (taking the 10 second bonus).

Sagan is a good teammate, and he will work for McCarthy, there's no debate about that. Bora's problem is that McCarthy has almost no chance of winning the stage, so the best they can do is hope that Sagan wins and limits the bonus seconds available to McCarthy's opponents.

Finishing at Uraidla, after the gentle slopes of Norton Summit Rd, just doesn't work to the benefit of McCarthy. I still think Sagan is the clear #1 favourite to win that stage.
 
If the likes of Greipel and Ewan are dropped on stage 4, then yes, Bora will hope McCarthy can pick up seconds. McCarthy can outsprint Haas. Bora needs McCarthy to gain bonus seconds. If McCarthy doesn't have a lead over Porte heading into Willunga, then McCarthy won't win. Haas was second on Willunga last year. McCarthy needs a lead over Haas too and the only way to do it is to going head to head with Haas and beating him. If not, then why is he here? He may as well soft pedal to another podium.
 
I think Haas is the faster rider in a sprint. Haas beat him hands down in the intermediate sprint yesterday, and I'd expect him to do the same 9 times out of 10.

Why is he here?
  • He's Bora's best chance for a podium finish.
  • He's an Australian, and most WT teams have stocked their TDU rosters with Aussies. They do so because they're in-season, well adjusted to the weather conditions, and it's their home tour.
I expect them to try and get him the win, but I think they'll also want to hedge their bets. Getting a stage win for Sagan, and limiting McCarthy's time losses to Haas, is still a good outcome for Bora. The last thing they need is Haas winning the stage and taking bonus seconds on McCarthy, purely because they didn't let Sagan sprint for the win.

I agree that McCarthy needs to have time in hand ahead of Willunga, if he is to have any hope of claiming the title. However, I just don't think that this stage is tough enough to allow him to take the time he needs. There are plenty of other riders who are better suited to riding & winning the stage to Uraidla.
 
This year's TDU is already turning out to be more interesting than the 2017 edition.

Last year there were only 2 stage winners for the entire race - Caleb Ewan cleaned up all the flatter stages (including the People's Classic), with Porte taking out the mountain top finishes. This year we already have 2 different stage winners, in Ewan and Greipel, with Sagan having won the People's Classic.
 
McCarthy won't be winning the race unless he can beat Haas on stage 4, and like you say, it will be tough for him. Haas will beat him up Willunga. As will Porte.

Haas hasn't picked up enough yet either. Haas needed seconds today. Race is still in Porte's hands IMO.
 
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