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Analysis Team ratings

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grumbleguts said:
Here's a more refined set of numbers giving less weight to calculations further out. eg when team A beats team B and team B beats team C If team C beats team G them team A rises slightly (because it is better than B C and G even though there are several layers between A and C (I made that rise weighted less - I also dampened the numbers a bit so they aren't so high.

This seems to show that it is VERY tight at the top. 6 teams all very similar.

(This will take a few seasons to perfect with an 18 team competition but little by little it will hopefully become a pretty decent predictor of final ladder positions early in the piece.

Geelong Cats 81.8624
Sydney Swans 81.22379
Adelaide Crows 81.11381
Western Bulldogs 75.82205
West Coast Eagles 75.63839
Hawthorn 74.37114
GWS Giants 71.29577
North Melbourne 64.26797
Port Adelaide 59.90633
Melbourne 49.97803
St Kilda 48.15192
Richmond 47.3928
Fremantle 46.67537
Gold Coast Suns 46.00623
Collingwood 45.83444
Carlton 43.51785
Essendon 38.05466
Brisbane Lions 35.34902
Click to expand...

That's better from a barracking point of view as it shows the Hawks within clear striking distance. It also doesn't have Sydney and Adelaide way out in front, which feels more correct.

I'm still surprised that the Eagles rate so well. But thems the numbers.
 
OzJohnnie said:
That's better from a barracking point of view as it shows the Hawks within clear striking distance. It also doesn't have Sydney and Adelaide way out in front, which feels more correct.

I'm still surprised that the Eagles rate so well. But thems the numbers.
Click to expand...
Needs a 'flat-track' vector
 
Hawk_francais said:
Needs a 'flat-track' vector
Click to expand...
LOL. And, I have to say, your avatar cracks me up every time I see it. That really is our ex-PM with a balloon c*ck & balls on his head isn't it?
Not photoshopped? He looks very pleased or is perhaps blissfully oblivious of the situation.
 
So here's the big question... What does Hawthorn need to do to get up on top of this thing quickly?

Will simply beating Sydney see a big jump? Do we need to beat them by a bigger ratio than they beat us? Do we need to beat that ratio by a significant amount?
 

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cryptor said:
So here's the big question... What does Hawthorn need to do to get up on top of this thing quickly?

Will simply beating Sydney see a big jump? Do we need to beat them by a bigger ratio than they beat us? Do we need to beat that ratio by a significant amount?
Click to expand...
Yeah if we beat sydney by more than they beat us we will rise considerably. Also I am working on incorporating a negative loss matrix, seems to show for prior seasons to be slightly more similar to the final ladder even earlier.
 
Great work. I'm looking forward to following this as the season goes on. :)

In terms of predicting results what's involved? And does it output a scoreline or simply a confidence based probability?

Also is there much manual calculation on your part or can you set it up to update automatically as results are uploaded online?
 
I figure if we beat Sydney by 10 goals people will start getting nervous so we should probably only win by 9 and stay under the radar ;)
 
Gralin said:
I figure if we beat Sydney by 10 goals people will start getting nervous so we should probably only win by 9 and stay under the radar ;)
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89 points Rough to kick 5?
 
TheFourPillars said:
89 points Rough to kick 5?
Click to expand...
If only, that game will have to wait for next year I fear though.

Still if TOB wants to have his lick of the ice cream against Swans in a couple of weeks I won't complain
 

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cryptor said:
Great work. I'm looking forward to following this as the season goes on. :)

In terms of predicting results what's involved? And does it output a scoreline or simply a confidence based probability?

Also is there much manual calculation on your part or can you set it up to update automatically as results are uploaded online?
Click to expand...
As far as tipping goes, the spread sheet rates the teams as listed herein, but also it gives a relative strength for team vs team. (very crude but last season it won money in four different tipping competitions.) does not give scorelines but relative strength. For example when Hawthorn plays port adelaide it gives a point value of 14.12 for Hawthorn when Port Adelaide play Hawthorn it gives a point value of 9.03. Hawthorn should win comfortably by something around this ratio according tot he sheet.

An interesting comparison (since I haven't entered tonight's game in the sheet yet, it gives port adelaide against Richmond a value of 12.01 and richmond against port adelaide a value of 6.98 (almost 7) so the score line should be somewhere around 12/7 in favour of port adelaide (a percentage for the game of 171%.) The actual game gave a scoreline of 94/56or 167.9 that's a pretty decent agreement.

Any one interested here's a screen shot of the part of the sheet I am talking about. Go down to the row that says Port Adelaide and across to the column for Richmond and it gives a value of 12.03. Go to the row that says richmond and across to port adelaide and it says 6.98. So having a look at that we should absolutely porridge brisbane the next time we see them.

upload_2016-7-1_22-51-55.png
Edit: Note the extremely creative name I have given the file.

I will post last season's sheet in a moment.
 
And here's some of the data from last season, which shows Hawthorn and west coast clearly ahead of everyone else (see the far right column)

upload_2016-7-1_23-1-47.png
 
So our game for next week should have a scoring ratio of about 14.12:9.04? Or will that number change significantly once you factor in this weeks results?
 
It will change, particularly because port won and we beat richmond by similar amounts which will evens out port and us, although it depends on who else we have both beaten. I don't enter the games until the end of the round because it plays silly buggers if there aren't an even number of games. The Geelong Adelaide game that was foregone last season was entered as a draw.
 
Since making this somewhat public I have been working on refining the ratings for the sake of interest.

I set up a similar matrix based on losses how good at losing to teams are you. Combining the two gives a very similar list however some teams get a negative rating.

As it stands at the end of round 15

Sydney Swans 35.729
Adelaide Crows 34.6
Geelong Cats 33.43
West Coast Eagles 28.856
GWS Giants 27.552
Western Bulldogs 25.489
Hawthorn 21.249
North Melbourne 14.443
Port Adelaide 11.683
Melbourne -0.928
Richmond -5.089
Collingwood -5.587
Fremantle -11.201
Carlton -17.79
Gold Coast Suns -21.367
St Kilda -23.022
Brisbane Lions -36.03
Essendon -36.711

It'll take a while to get this perfect, (it was always intended as a tipping tool {a task for which it works admirably} not for ratings, but we'll see how it goes)
 
I think, at this point in time, I prefer the real ladder,where we're a game clear of the rest.
 

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grumbleguts said:
Since making this somewhat public I have been working on refining the ratings for the sake of interest.

I set up a similar matrix based on losses how good at losing to teams are you. Combining the two gives a very similar list however some teams get a negative rating.

As it stands at the end of round 15

Sydney Swans 35.729
Adelaide Crows 34.6
Geelong Cats 33.43
West Coast Eagles 28.856
GWS Giants 27.552
Western Bulldogs 25.489
Hawthorn 21.249
North Melbourne 14.443
Port Adelaide 11.683
Melbourne -0.928
Richmond -5.089
Collingwood -5.587
Fremantle -11.201
Carlton -17.79
Gold Coast Suns -21.367
St Kilda -23.022
Brisbane Lions -36.03
Essendon -36.711

It'll take a while to get this perfect, (it was always intended as a tipping tool {a task for which it works admirably} not for ratings, but we'll see how it goes)
Click to expand...
So it's tipping us to beat Port Adelaide by 182% of their score? Eg. 109 - 60
 
cryptor said:
So it's tipping us to beat Port Adelaide by 182% of their score? Eg. 109 - 60
Click to expand...
After round fifteen it says Hawthorn 14.1002 Port 9.06
upload_2016-7-3_22-30-8.png

So that's a percentage of 155% for the game (although it doesn't quite work like that it's a fair approximation. In that it's says hawthorn are 155% better than port adelaide when the two teams face each other. (But this doesn't take into account home ground the bye etc... and it's sport. in 1992 in the NRL, one team was undefeated on top after 11 rounds they played the bottom side who were winless and lost.)
 
cryptor said:
So it's tipping us to beat Port Adelaide by 182% of their score? Eg. 109 - 60
Click to expand...
On another note, the ratings calculation is different to the tipping one, same sheet and the ratings uses in part the tipping data, but the tipping is explained in the post #39
 
One other form of ratings system is to use the dominance matrix maths as it was originally intended a win is a win a loss is a loss no matter what the margin is (works well in chess)

If we consider only wins here's how that table looks
Geelong Cats 31.9
Adelaide Crows 31.3
Hawthorn 30.8
GWS Giants 30.4
Sydney Swans 29.2
Western Bulldogs 29.2
North Melbourne 25.9
West Coast Eagles 19.5
Port Adelaide 16.6
Melbourne 15.9
St Kilda 15.6
Carlton 14.4
Collingwood 14.1
Richmond 13.5
Gold Coast Suns 8.8
Fremantle 5.7
Essendon 2.8
Brisbane Lions 2.2

However if you also take into account who you lose to and not only who you defeated, the hawks suddenly look pretty decent (remember this does not takke into account the fact that 3 of our wins are only 3 points.)

Hawthorn 24.2
Adelaide Crows 22.8
Western Bulldogs 20.7
GWS Giants 20.4
Geelong Cats 19.5
Sydney Swans 19.2
North Melbourne 17.4
West Coast Eagles 8.8
Port Adelaide -2.4
St Kilda -4.7
Melbourne -6.2
Richmond -8.3
Carlton -8.6
Collingwood -9.5
Gold Coast Suns -18.3
Fremantle -25.1
Brisbane Lions -34.5
Essendon -35.4

Shows the gap between the sop eight and the bottom ten.
 
I like that last one best. Anything that reinforces my passions...


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