The 2011 MLB Thread

[IDIG]

Probably the toughest sport to make money on but i'll give it a shot

Gonna try a bit of a betting system this year. Pretty much based around the law of averages so i'll be betting against W/L streaks because teams usually end up between .600 and .400. This is more of an experimental year so units are relatively small to ride the variance.

Tomorrow -
San Diego Padres vColorado Rockies (W-3) @ 1.83
Toronto Blue Jays (L-4) vTampa Bay Rays @ 1.80

I'll include the streaks i'm betting against in brackets.

 

[mattys123]

Gutsy Man (assuming your a male) for betting on spring training matches.

I made a fair bit last year on MLB betting, mainly because I backed the Giants to win it all, and also because I backed teams like them "down the stretch", which seems the most profitable time of betting for MLB, as some teams basically give up, while those fighting for the playoffs don't seem to lose as many "easy games".

My tip for anyone new to MLB betting is to start off slow, and work your way into the season, finding a system that makes you a profit.

Last year I started off backing underdogs in the first month or so of the season, mainly with the home ground advantage, and this got me off to a great start.

I'll try and post a "TTD" or YTD" along the way, but I don't keep records (although I should) of my activity, so it may be hard.

I haven't really "done the form" as far as World Series and Championship winners go, but I will before the season starts.

 

[IDIG]

Haha yeah i'm a bloke. I'm 2 from 2 so far this year so off to a good start. I was very very streaky last year but made a loss mainly because i played a lot of 3-4 leg multis which as we all know isn't going to provide long term profit so i stopped a qtr of the way in...this year will be different though

 

[twarby]

i will follow the steam again which should be just like nhl which is going at >60%

 

[Cruiser23]

Can't wait, not going near the pre-season games but get a look at a few games and the teams. Was running fairly well last year, hopefully i can carry what i learnt over and improve.

 

[Cruiser23]

i will follow the steam again which should be just like nhl which is going at >60%

Boring.

Nah, what do you take a look at to get a hold of your plays? Where do you follow the steam? (if that makes sense).

 

[IDIG]

Tomorrow -
San Diego Padres vColorado Rockies (W-3) @ 1.83
Toronto Blue Jays (L-4) vTampa Bay Rays @ 1.80

I'll include the streaks i'm betting against in brackets.

Nice start 2-0

 

[IDIG]

Annoyed sportsbet didn't open the market until the early hours of the morning or would've had 2 other winners with Baltimore's and Washington's streaks coming to an end this morning.

Tomorrow i'm on -
Tampa Bay Rays (L-4) v Minnesota Twins @ 2.10
Florida Marlins (L-3) v New York Mets @ 1.80
Chicago Cubs At Kansas City Royals (W-3) @ 2.00

There's probably more but it's a pain in the ass the way i'm researching these.

 

[IDIG]

Tampa Bay Rays (L-4) v Minnesota Twins @ 2.10
Florida Marlins (L-3) v New York Mets @ 1.80
Chicago Cubs At Kansas City Royals (W-3) @ 2.00

Two come from behind losses and KC just hit a 4 run homer to tie up the game at 4-4

EDIT: and lose 4-5 from being up 4-0 in the 6th FML.

 

[IDIG]

Tomorrow -
2 x Tampa Bay (L-5) v Minnesota Twins
2 x Colorado Rockies v Kansas City Royals (W-4)
2 x Florida Marlins (L-4) Boston Redsocks

Running a chase system to square up then will start making my own plays. Making auto-picks just isn't as fun for me...

 

[IDIG]

Tomorrow -
2 x Tampa Bay (L-5) v Minnesota Twins
2 x Colorado Rockies v Kansas City Royals (W-4)
2 x Florida Marlins (L-4) Boston Redsocks.

Florida win 11-2 and i miss because the market never opens

Tomorrow, so far
4 x Tampa Bay (L-6) v Phillies

Scores even in other game

EDIT: Rockies eventually win 10-9

 

[jefffff34]

Rays aren't exactly setting the world on fire it seems...

 

[IDIG]

Florida win 11-2 and i miss because the market never opens

Tomorrow, so far
4 x Tampa Bay (L-6) v Phillies

Scores even in other game

EDIT: Rockies eventually win 10-9

Market didn't open in time and TB lose yet another

Going tomorrow -
2 x Tampa Bay (L-7) @ Pittsburgh @ 1.87

 

[IDIG]

Finally they win

Tomorrow i'm taking -
Yankees 1.95 @ Atlanta
Giants 1.95 @ Seattle
Texas 2.05 @ LAA

 

[twarby]

Kansas City @ 1.87
Seattle @ 1.88

 

[IDIG]

Good call with Seattle. 1-2 for me on the night, bloody annoying seeing your leans get up and score a shite load while your losing picks manage 1 between them. Oh well, it's a long season, Onto tomorrow, i'll be taking the Giants and Rangers again as well as Minnesota and Arizona.

 

[twarby]

Detroit

 

[IDIG]

Can't bet the Minny play so i'll scrap that and i'lll jump on Detroit too.

 

[IDIG]

Good call with Seattle. 1-2 for me on the night, bloody annoying seeing your leans get up and score a shite load while your losing picks manage 1 between them. Oh well, it's a long season, Onto tomorrow, i'll be taking the Giants and Rangers again as well as Minnesota and Arizona.

2-2 for the day for a slight loss. Arizona start like a house on fire but can't give up the lead just as fast

 

[Cruiser23]

Season starts in a few hours. I'm sitting out the first week or two, there are so many games, would rather sit back and see how teams are shaping up.

I'd probably take Atlanta over Washington and the Yankees/Detroit Under 8 if i was forced, need more of a platform to take them though.

 

[scotty4]

took both those plays, as well as cincinnati over milwaukee. cincy wins it 2 out bottom of the 9th

 

[Nothing]

Rangers over Mariners
Pirates over Cardinals

 

[TheGreatBarryB]

Ah what the hell, i know it's early in the season and should stay away, but...


Dodgers +1.5 @ 1.42 - Kershaw is hot
Braves +1.5 @ 1.45 - Brewers bats not too hot..yet (multi)


Angels WIN @ 1.87 - Rays bats have been very cold. Weaver will make it colder.

Dodgers WIN @ 1.90 - see above

Red Sox -1.5 @ 2.05 - just a hunch Beckett and so far woeful bats will click against ordinary Indians

Astros- Reds +8.5 @ 1.83 - Reds bats are hot, Astros suck although Carlos Lee is hot and they averaged 4 runs v 3 Phillies aces.

 

[Nothing]

I'll back up this mornings wins with a long shot punt on the NY Mets.

Also think that the Yankees will win but little value. Hopefully low scoring I'll get on the unders/NY win @ ~$2.60.

 

[Nothing]

I'll back up this mornings wins with a long shot punt on the NY Mets.

Also think that the Yankees will win but little value. Hopefully low scoring I'll get on the unders/NY win @ ~$2.60.

A profit on the good NY team (partially offsetting the crabs from NYY bullpen)