The Adelaide problem - systemic failure in big games

[amer]

Our players aren't being adequately conditioned and prepared culturally. This is what our results tell me. The talent has been thereabouts for a decade plus.

What do we know? We know that for wins and losses versus flags won in the decade just gone we were an appalling, conspicuous outlier. We've seen changes of coach, changes of captain and after a total list turnover, a failure resembling our previous ones under yet another coach; losing a final at home that we were fancied to win, and then falling "gallantly" in a prelim we should never have found ourselves in.

Look at the competition record for the years 2000-2009:

http://forum.sportal.com.au/viewthread.aspx?t=68053

TEAM WINS LOSSES DRAWS POINTS F POINTS A PERCENTAGE POINTS Grand Finals Premierships
GEL 133 84 3 21642 19193 1148.76 538 3 2
ADL 129 91 0 21115 18669 1145.95 516 0 0
BRS 125 91 4 22544 20097 1131.88 508 4 3
PAD 126 92 2 21764 20278 1090.04 508 2 1
SYD 119 98 3 20664 18608 1117.5 482 2 1
ESS 114 103 3 22308 21600 1057.25 462 2 1
COL 113 107 0 21241 20554 1046.81 452 2 0
STK 110 107 3 20773 20473 1059.91 446 1 0
WCE 109 108 3 20732 21393 992.08 442 2 1
NME 109 108 3 20967 21738 964.52 442 0 0
HAW 105 115 0 20195 21051 971.08 420 1 1
WBD 102 114 4 22623 23142 990.23 416 0 0
MEL 92 127 1 20504 22530 923.16 370 1 0
FRE 92 128 0 19714 21717 919.75 368 0 0
RIC 84 133 3 19450 22537 869.19 342 0 0
CAR 81 137 2 20730 23390 913.63 328 0 0

We are just four wins behind Geelong, and AHEAD of Brisbane, and we are the only team in the top 7 not to have appeared in AT LEAST 2 grand finals. We are an embarrassing, blatant outlier among the top clubs. You just cringe every time you read this, because it lays bare that we are doing something very wrong, over and over again.

How does it look this decade? Now we've sorted our coaching coordination again, we're off to a familiar start. That 2012 campaign was a carbon copy of 2005. Beaten at home when fancied, "gallant" in defeat in a prelim with the odds supposedly stacked against us. Another season like last year and we are starting to shift into that shameful conversation again. If the coaches are changing, the players are changing, and our opposition is changing, what is continually happening to see us achieve the same results? Culture, which is controlled at the top, is the most likely culprit.

As for how it relates to this week's game - Our patterns are plainly observable and predictable in terms of both shooting ourselves in the foot, and the more depressing pattern, laying those classic "Adelaide markers" - those times where we're presented with a stage to flex our muscle as a club, and we lose. That in mind, we will lose one or both of our next two games. I predict this with extreme confidence because no Adelaide side has been able to do differently in this situation since the 90s. Should we somehow win both, there's nothing to say we shouldn't achieve a top 4 finish again - this is a bind we're in presently, this would be a show of strength and baseline resilience in the group to get it done at home and win our share away. In terms of premiership credentials, no game before Collingwood at the MCG in round 16 will give us good information. That is right at the hot part of the season, when form lines are steady and finals move into view. This is when the pecking order is really established. Between now and then we'll probably beat Hawthorn and West Coast - these are the red herring victories we rack up every time we finish in the top 8; formative clashes masquerading as dress rehearsals that only really tell us we can win at home in the minor round, low stakes, no statements being made.

This is why only 30,000 rock up to finals in Adelaide. People are sick of the same shit, and they already know how it ends

 

[King Elvis]

Great post - but I'd hold off posting it until Tuesday, when the talk isn't focussing on this game

 

[PCORF]

Last decade was sh*t. The Crows won in so many games but since 2003, failed so many times when it really mattered when trying to finish top 4 or were on the way to causing a September boilover only to stuff it up miserably. Lost a winnable preliminary final in 2006 and were never the same again for many years after that.

The 2003 and 2007 seasons were an epic failures. Esp the end of 2003 when we choked up a top 4 spot in the last 3 rounds and I think we had our strongest side of the decade that year too. I remember that game vs North in Round 21 2003, we were dreadful on that wet day vs a team that had no chance of playing in September and it cost us our finals chances. We were a good chance as we would have played Port in the QF and would have had a good chance of causing a huge upset. Instead we have an unconvincing win over West Coast and get destroyed by that Brisbane team the following week.

2012 was different, we got better at winning the close ones but ran into Sydney in the QF and they buried us alive. But after that it was a great fight to the very end of that preliminary final. Thats why losing that one hurt the most cos we never stopped trying at all despite the dreadful umpiring and anything that was trying to put us off our game. Now in 2013 we need to do all this hard work again to win 15 or 16 games, never easy after you lose a preliminary final by 5 points and you possibly start the following season at 0-2.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

Your performances become your culture.

That St Kilda final in 2005 is the single most significant event in our club's history.

 

[King Elvis]

We're scared of big games - we need to embrace them.

 

[Damp Squarie]

Our players aren't being adequately conditioned and prepared culturally.

If you use the word culture one more time your dick will drop off...if you have one.

 

[FR0GGY]

We're scared of big games - we need to embrace them.

That's a craigy like saying

 

[PCORF]

Your performances become your culture.

That St Kilda final in 2005 is the single most significant event in our club's history.

We had possession for like 30% of that game. Disappointing game, had a big chance that year if we won that game. Once in a lifetime chance as it seemed. Had to play West Coast in Perth for the prelim, never had a chance.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

That's a craigy like saying

Speaking of Craigy, how are Melbourne going tonight? Haven't caught a score yet.

 

[Vader]

Speaking of Craigy, how are Melbourne going tonight? Haven't caught a score yet.

Currently down by 120pts.

 

[FR0GGY]

Currently down by 120pts.

They'll learn from this

 

[BigLefty]

That's a craigy like saying

Craig's mantra was always that every game is a big game and should be treated as such. I can see why a coach would want his team to play this way. From memory we didnt lose many games to teams below us on the ladder when he was coach.

But there's no denying we epically failed to go up a gear in the big games.

This was never more apparent than in Edwards' last game IMO. I remember the build up being very much a non event. It took young Sloane (let's call him Golden Boy ) only a few games into his career to bring the team into a huddle after the coaches had left at 3/4 time to give the "do it for Tyson" speech. It's no surprise now because we all know the kids awesome, but it highlighted at the time how the team had been conditioned to play like (hate to say it)......Crowbots. Golden Boy just hadn't been programmed yet.

 

[Allefgib]

I found this fascinating in a different thread Amer - thanks for making a specific one.

As others have said elsewhere - the Malthouse approach of testing players out in big games and then sitting them on their butts if they don't perform is probably an approach we need to consider.

Or is it beyond the players. Is it an overarching 'cultural' issue? Are their issues with our priorities?

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

Every clubs sets out to build a winning culture. They want a reputation for hard work, standing up in crunch times, big game players, consistent, respected, feared.

So you build a decent team with good players, good coaching structure and you get to finals. You play finals matches with both teams having the same goal. One team is guaranteed to win, no matter what. Even if both teams have been 'right' or 'wrong' in how they've gone about things. To the victor go the spoils. For them it reinforces everything they have done previously - recruiting, development, game plan, selection decisions, philosophy, list management. For the players it means they are reassured about their own abilities. They have faith in the direction the club is taking them. They have faith that the methods their coach preaches work.

The club as a whole takes confidence from this. Winning is a habit. Winning finals is a habit. The Bulldogs preliminary final in 1997... we sneak over the line in a miracle comeback. All of a sudden playing finals is no biggie, having the crowd against us is no biggie, travelling is no biggie. We've done it once, we can do it again. After that we won several away finals - St Kilda (97), Sydney (98), Bulldogs (98), Kangaroos (98), Melbourne (02), none of which we were favourites for.

It is the opposite for the loser. It creates doubt. Did we recruit the wrong players, does our game plan stand up in September, is our fitness program not having us peak at the right time, selection, philosophy, match day moves, injury management, list management... everything gets questioned. The players doubt their own ability - can they stand up in big games? The players wonder whether the methods the coach preaches are the right ones. Authority us undermined.

The doubts fester. You wonder "will it happen again?" as soon as the opposition kicks a goal or two. The lack of confidence leads to players going into their shells, not playing the same sort of football that got them to finals in the first place.

Our culture is one that now fears failure, due to all our previous finals capitulations. Our previous coach wore this tension around his neck like a noose. His anxieties were passed on to the playing group.

I mentioned in a previous thread that we have never had a previous premiership winner coach us. Sando would have doubts on his own ability, because he's never coached before. Craig the same. Both desperate to prove themselves. Malthouse going to Collingwood doesn't have the same doubts, because he has been there and done it. He knows his methods work, the players know his methods work. That confidence leads to more clear headed decision making, less questioning.

The Hawthorn 2012 final was thrilling and devastating all rolled into one. The players won't say it but I bet it is the Sydney final that will resonate the most. A loss in a home final where we are favourites is the most devastating loss in football. That's the biggest concern. That the finals horrors of 2005-09 haven't disappeared with Craig, but have followed us into the new regime. Somewhere along the line we need our finals breakout win. To exorcise the demons. This is one of the reasons I'd wish we'd be harsher and cull finals flops like Doughty and Reilly earlier instead of hanging on to them and hoping they do better next time.

England couldn't beat Australia in the Ashes until they'd gotten rid of Atherton, Stewart, Thorpe, Hick, Hussain, Gough, Caddick... even though those guys had half decent test records. Strauss and Atherton probably averaged similar. But one had lost umpteen series to Australia and by the end was a beaten man before he walked out there. The new players had no such demons.

 

[Slippery Pete]

^^
Spackler, you posted about Geelong at the end of 2006 a while ago. About a few of the philosophical changes they made. I can't find that post for the life of me.

I remember Tom Harley saying once that he missed early games in 07 due to injury, and when he returned he played what he thought was a typical, good, dour defender's game. The team pulled him aside and said something like, if you play like that again next week, you are out on your arse.

I think the Geelong example is a really incredible one, one of the most interesting footy stories we've ever seen. What they did between 06 and 07 changed the culture of that club.

 

[AFC979810]

Its a great thread topic and I am surprised that it has so few replies....

For me I my bullet points are these:

1. Overall - Our club is doing fine. We average 1 premiership every 11 years which is above the average. We do not have a bad culture.

2. Luck is an often understated discussion point on this board. You need luck in spades to win a flag.

3. By looking at two of the three most successful clubs over the past 5 years (Collingwood/Geelong) I wonder if we got rid of Ayres and Craig too early?

For me this discussion needs to be centered around the last 22 years of our clubs history. The relevance of 2000 to now is the same of the relevance of 1991 to now.

Point #1 - To analyse our club - we need to look at what we have done since we have been in the league compared to other clubs during that time - with the key statistic being premierships won.

On overall premierships we are currently equal 2nd since 1991 in total premierships:

Brisbane/Geelong/West Coast - 3.
Essendon / Sydney / Hawthorn / North Melbourne / Adelaide - 2
Carlton / Port / Collingwood - 1
Freo/Melbourne/St.Kilda/Bulldogs/GWS/GC/Richmond - 0.

We average a premiership every 11 years. Mick Malthouse - everyones favourite coach averages one premiership every 9.33 years.

With draft / free agency / salary cap - the league is structured to allow teams to win a flag every 18 years (or realistically 16 years since we have been in the league). This is what is designed to happen. Obviously each team will strive to better the odds and some (Brisbane,Geelong,West Coast) will have more luck than others (Melb/St.Kilda/Richmond).

Point #2. Many will shoot me down for this but luck plays an absolutely massive part in winning flags.

Chris Grant realises he has more time and kicks the goal with 1 minute to go - we don't make it through to the grand final in 1997 and who knows about 1998.

Stephen Milne doesn't get the worst bounce in history and the Saints go up by 5 points with 1:32 in the 2010 grand final. This happens and Mick Malthouse finishes his 12 year coaching career at Collingwood with 4 grand final losses and 2 preliminary final losses.

Dangerfield doesn't slip with 4 minutes to go down by 4 points and he outpaces Stratton to put us up by 2 points. Instead Hawthorn take it down the other end 40 seconds later and buddy kicks the winning goal.

Point #3 - Look at the following coaches:

Malthouse - Came in 2000... took Collingwood to 2 losing grandfinals in 2002/2003. Then finished 13th in 2004 and 15th in 2005. Instead of firing him they believed in him - withstood the media and fan pressure and came back up the ladder to play in 2 more grand finals and win one.

Bomber Thompson - came in 2000... Had some success in first year and finished 5th, before finishing 12th, 9th, 9th. Then they looked fantastic in 2004/2005 getting knocked out in a prelim and then losing an amazing home semi final by a kick. Then 2006 happened and they finished 10th - went backwards. Once again the board and club stayed loyal to Bomber Thompson and they end up winning it all in 2007.

Look at us... Ayres comes in 2000. Takes us to a prelim in 2002 and then knocked out in semifinal in 2003. Then in 2004 we are sitting 14th on the ladder and Ayres gets sacked.

Craig comes in 2005 - takes us to two prelims in 2005/2006 then finals in 2007/2008/2009 before we finish
11th in 2010 and are 14th on the ladder in 2011 and he gets sacked.

Both Geelong and Collingwood had epic finals failures in the lead up to their down years (like us). They rebounded and ended up winning tightly contested finals and achieving ultimate success. We have seen the spike under both Craig and Sanderson. What would have happened if we didn't bow to media & supporter pressure and kept Craig / Ayres. Both of these guys could coach (as proven by the fact that took us to 3 prelims between them).

Further more... what if we have a good finals year this year and drop off again next year? Do we get rid of Sando?

 

[Harris Pilton]

Its a great thread topic and I am surprised that it has so few replies....

For me I my bullet points are these:

1. Overall - Our club is doing fine. We average 1 premiership every 11 years which is above the average. We do not have a bad culture.

2. Luck is an often understated discussion point on this board. You need luck in spades to win a flag.

3. By looking at two of the three most successful clubs over the past 5 years (Collingwood/Geelong) I wonder if we got rid of Ayres and Craig too early?

For me this discussion needs to be centered around the last 22 years of our clubs history. The relevance of 2000 to now is the same of the relevance of 1991 to now.

Point #1 - To analyse our club - we need to look at what we have done since we have been in the league compared to other clubs during that time - with the key statistic being premierships won.

On overall premierships we are currently equal 2nd since 1991 in total premierships:

Brisbane/Geelong/West Coast - 3.
Essendon / Sydney / Hawthorn / North Melbourne / Adelaide - 2
Carlton / Port / Collingwood - 1
Freo/Melbourne/St.Kilda/Bulldogs/GWS/GC/Richmond - 0.

We average a premiership every 11 years. Mick Malthouse - everyones favourite coach averages one premiership every 9.33 years.

With draft / free agency / salary cap - the league is structured to allow teams to win a flag every 18 years (or realistically 16 years since we have been in the league). This is what is designed to happen. Obviously each team will strive to better the odds and some (Brisbane,Geelong,West Coast) will have more luck than others (Melb/St.Kilda/Richmond).

Point #2. Many will shoot me down for this but luck plays an absolutely massive part in winning flags.

Chris Grant realises he has more time and kicks the goal with 1 minute to go - we don't make it through to the grand final in 1997 and who knows about 1998.

Stephen Milne doesn't get the worst bounce in history and the Saints go up by 5 points with 1:32 in the 2010 grand final. This happens and Mick Malthouse finishes his 12 year coaching career at Collingwood with 4 grand final losses and 2 preliminary final losses.

Dangerfield doesn't slip with 4 minutes to go down by 4 points and he outpaces Stratton to put us up by 2 points. Instead Hawthorn take it down the other end 40 seconds later and buddy kicks the winning goal.

Point #3 - Look at the following coaches:

Malthouse - Came in 2000... took Collingwood to 2 losing grandfinals in 2002/2003. Then finished 13th in 2004 and 15th in 2005. Instead of firing him they believed in him - withstood the media and fan pressure and came back up the ladder to play in 2 more grand finals and win one.

Bomber Thompson - came in 2000... Had some success in first year and finished 5th, before finishing 12th, 9th, 9th. Then they looked fantastic in 2004/2005 getting knocked out in a prelim and then losing an amazing home semi final by a kick. Then 2006 happened and they finished 10th - went backwards. Once again the board and club stayed loyal to Bomber Thompson and they end up winning it all in 2007.

Look at us... Ayres comes in 2000. Takes us to a prelim in 2002 and then knocked out in semifinal in 2003. Then in 2004 we are sitting 14th on the ladder and Ayres gets sacked.

Craig comes in 2005 - takes us to two prelims in 2005/2006 then finals in 2007/2008/2009 before we finish
11th in 2010 and are 14th on the ladder in 2011 and he gets sacked.

Both Geelong and Collingwood had epic finals failures in the lead up to their down years (like us). They rebounded and ended up winning tightly contested finals and achieving ultimate success. We have seen the spike under both Craig and Sanderson. What would have happened if we didn't bow to media & supporter pressure and kept Craig / Ayres. Both of these guys could coach (as proven by the fact that took us to 3 prelims between them).

Further more... what if we have a good finals year this year and drop off again next year? Do we get rid of Sando?

Good comments. Couple of points though. Our stats are too small to state in any meaningful sense that we "win a premiership every 11 years." You need at least 70-80 years of history for those sort of stats to have any validity. We entered the comp in 1990 and unexpectedly won two consecutive premierships in 97 and 98. You could argue in 98 that we had won a premiership every 4 years, but that statistic would also be meaningless. We didn't win those premierships through the natural cycle of the manipulated competition. Actually, I'm buggered if I know how we won them, but I'd put it down more to individual personalites.

Secondly, Ayres and Craig weren't given the flick solely on their win/loss record. Ayers was a dysfunctional character who was giving the team the creeps. And Craigy was playing a rigid style of football and had clearly lost the confidence of the group, who were seriously underperforming at that stage. Both were dead ends with no more strings to their bows.

 

[AFC979810]

Good comments. Couple of points though. Our stats are too small to state in any meaningful sense that we "win a premiership every 11 years." You need at least 70-80 years of history for those sort of stats to have any validity. We entered the comp in 1990 and unexpectedly won two consecutive premierships in 97 and 98. You could argue in 98 that we had won a premiership every 4 years, but that statistic would also be meaningless. We didn't win those premierships through the natural cycle of the manipulated competition. Actually, I'm buggered if I know how we won them, but I'd put it down more to individual personalites.

Secondly, Ayres and Craig weren't given the flick solely on their win/loss record. Ayers was a dysfunctional character who was giving the team the creeps. And Craigy was playing a rigid style of football and had clearly lost the confidence of the group, who were seriously underperforming at that stage. Both were dead ends with no more strings to their bows.

To your second point... Try and dig up some media / fan based reactions in 2004/2005 for Collingwood and 2006 for Geelong. Malthouse was bored, rigid and had lost the players. Bomber had squandered all of his players talents and they didn't want to play for him. The scrutiny on both of these coaches during these down times were huge. Malthouse had a little more safety considering he had the runs on the board (within 12 points of a grand final a few years back and flags in 1992/1994).

The fact remains that we were in the same boat from 2000-2010 with Collingwood & Geelong as all three clubs hired new coaches around the year 2000. In the next ten year period all 3 clubs failed on the big stage (prelims or grandfinals) from 2002-2005 and then had very bad times. Geelong / Collingwood stuck with their coaches and ended up getting 3 flags between them. We relented to fan / media pressure and fired both Ayres and Craig and have zero flags.

 

[Slippery Pete]

Geelong / Collingwood stuck with their coaches and ended up getting 3 flags between them. We relented to fan / media pressure and fired both Ayres and Craig and have zero flags.

You've overlooked a very key point in each of these examples.

Mick Malthouse was a dual premiership coach when he came to Collingwood. There was never any question about his pedigree or ability to get premiership success. It was just a matter of how long Collingwood wanted to give him. This was not the case with either Craig or Ayres. Neither of them had proven premiership pedigree to fall back on.

In the case of Geelong, at the end of 2006 - Bomber Thompson's 7th year at the helm - the club conducted an external review of everything from the CEO down to the boot studder. They changed their philosophy, their behaviour, their leadership model, and eventually and most tellingly - their culture. They haven't looked back since. In 2007 - the first year after this review - Bomber Thompson and several others had their backs absolutely pinned to the wall. He was on his absolute last chance.

Again - a situation that bears no resemblance to the limp handling of circumstances at Adelaide. Craig was never put on notice - in fact just weeks before his "resignation" we were told he would coach the club for " as far as the eye can see."

Even after the whole Craig debacle, the only thing that effectively changed at the club was Craig out, Sanderson in. Nobody was put on notice for the club's lack of success and still hasn't been. The only guy forcibly removed in recent times was the guy we could least afford to lose - Matt Rendell, and that had nothing to do with his performance. G'day Collingwood!

Nevermind a review of premiership success - our CEO is still there after being fined and banned by the AFL!

It's a sad, sad state of affairs.

 

[Mr_Moogle]

My cynical side says Adelaide probably won't have any real success until we get rid of the boys club. The fact that Trigg still has a job is laughable.

 

[Cap]

I really would love to talk to Chapman.

I can't work him out, is he trying to remove Adelaide from the boys club and become more commercial or is he in the boys club and creating an illusion.

 

[The Sloane Ranger]

If you use the word culture one more time your dick will drop off...if you have one.

I think we are starting to move down this path

 

[maxlilly]

I think the club is now heading in the right direction.
I have a lot of faith in the way Sando goes about his job.
I think there is a lot of credence to the way Geelong changed & I think Sando is bringing in systems to try and replicate this.
Only time will tell.
Injuries play a big part in where you finish at the end of the year and through finals. I think our big guy depth is very poor. Just imaging if we lose Jacobs, Talia or Walker.
It would be nice to see us win a final as underdog for a change though, instead of the underdog beating us.
I reckon it will be hard to make the grand final this year but in 2014/15, I hope we are at the peak of our powers.

 

[Slippery Pete]

How can we be at peak of our powers when those two seasons are already compromised.

We are - by definition - not at the peak of our powers for the next two seasons.

 

[Coopers]

I think the club is now heading in the right direction.
I have a lot of faith in the way Sando goes about his job.
I think there is a lot of credence to the way Geelong changed & I think Sando is bringing in systems to try and replicate this.
Only time will tell.
Injuries play a big part in where you finish at the end of the year and through finals. I think our big guy depth is very poor. Just imaging if we lose Jacobs, Talia or Walker.
It would be nice to see us win a final as underdog for a change though, instead of the underdog beating us.
I reckon it will be hard to make the grand final this year but in 2014/15, I hope we are at the peak of our powers.

Me too... but we lost another ****ing prelim last year...