The concept of the Premiership Window

[RudyBlue]

Seriously though, the concept of a premiership window isn't a flawed one.

Of your game plan has been tested, coaching staff are appropriate and playing list peaking at their ability across the ground in relation to the other teams, it's fair to say you have a window of opportunity to win a flag before any serious and disruptive changes are required.

It's a subjective assessment that can be proven right or wrong very easily and is subject to many other factors once the window is open 'on paper'.

Where people get it wrong is that they think it's a continuous cycle of boom or bust as the OP has alluded to. You can smash the window open in one season with luck and good management (the intrinsic factors from the OP), or be stuck in the bottom 4 if things go wrong.

Realistically, a well managed team shouldn't have to rebuild. You should be able to consistently push for/play in finals, and when the stars align (those intrinsic factors), jag a premiership. Maybe even a few in a row if the stars really align.

How many times have we been shocked to see a team rocket up the later after being written off as a bottom feeder?

WCE were bottom in 2010 and finished 4th in 2011. They had picks 4 and 26 in the 2010 draft and got Gaff and Darling, who made an instant impact. Worsfold gave us his impression of the press and a number of players thrived out of the blue.

I'm not expecting us to finish 4th in 2017, but who can definitively say that's no chance of happening?

 

[thylacine60]

 

[TheCoach16]

The premiership window, in my view, is just more, very vague, football vernacular. Like "processes" or "we didn't come to play today"...

If a team doesn't win a premiership whilst in their "premiership window", Freo, St.Kilda, Collingwood in the 70's and 80's, do we conclude that there never really was a window? On the flip side, does Brisbane's and Hawthorns threepeat, Geelong's three in five years, our own three in four years, mean the window is a tangible, very real concept?

With endless variables, including a degree of luck, which are near impossible to foresee or control, identifying a team's premiership window is, at best, an educated guess.

If anyone at any club, at any level, outside of supporters, openly stated their premiership window is open, they might quickly be told not to get ahead of themselves.

Winning a flag, and let's face it, that's what this is all about, requires so many things to go right. Long term planning, or It can simply come down to the day, or even a moment on the day.

I personally believe, it's a term that's best used in hindsight rather than as a prediction. I've been fortunate enough to be involved with premiership sides. It was only AFTER the fact that I had the luxury of thinking, "I knew we'd win it, it was our time..."

The only cliche in footy that rings true is "one week at a time".... The teams that do it best for longer, week in, week out, give themselves an opportunity to win a flag. They then have to make the most of that opportunity. That's how you open the window...

 

[thylacine60]

we don't just have to improve - ultimately we have to get better than and beat the teams above us - long way from here I feel

 

[La Dispute]

Where people get it wrong is that they think it's a continuous cycle of boom or bust as the OP has alluded to. You can smash the window open in one season with luck and good management (the intrinsic factors from the OP), or be stuck in the bottom 4 if things go wrong.

Realistically, a well managed team shouldn't have to rebuild. You should be able to consistently push for/play in finals, and when the stars align (those intrinsic factors), jag a premiership. Maybe even a few in a row if the stars really align.

Spot on.

Hawthorn had one draft full of 1st rounders, Geelong had none, Sydney had none, West Coast had none... The draft is a handy tool for accruing talent; no one can deny that - but there is far less certainty in it than many believe. When your systems of development aren't up to scratch, the draft becomes redundant.

Personally, I'm very happy to see we've taken on multiple picks in the later rounds of the draft this year. I'd love a few of those players to come on and turn into quality players; putting to bed the idea that we have to invest in first rounders to build a finals capable list. Get them into that learning environment and get them used to performing at an elite level.

 

[1shay]

I too agree with the one week at a time idea...

...but didnt Beverige say after the bulldogs first first final win that they were there to win the premiership...

Seemed pretty unrealistic at the time, especially coming from 7th spot.

 

[kingkingston]

no such thing as a Premiership window, so many upsets happen in season in the Finals to debunk the theory. To me every team is in contention, just some have a better chance of getting close.

 

[gbatman]

A team is in it's premiership window when it is good enough or close to good enough to win a premiership. Some teams sit just outside being good enough but will be good enough with some added quality, they would still be in their premiership window as small changes can win them a flag.

Rebuilding we've seen it done right and done wrong. I've seen us rebuild but we did it with the wrong characters, we bought a player at a massive cost who elevated us up 5 places on the ladder where we didn't belong and hence took away those extra early picks we needed, we drafted really poorly, especially when we moved up the ladder and our trading had no planning, guts or strategy like it does now. The Dogs and Hawks are examples of sides who have drafted really well and traded boldly.

I don't think accumulating draft picks is flawed, this is only the case if those picks are used poorly.

The Bulldogs are a poor example of a bottom 4 winning a flag. They were just about the best side in it early on, lost most of their backline, struggled but found players and got their players back towards the end of the season and were back to their best but didn't win enough games to make the top 4. The still had a top 4 side on the park but for the mid part of the season didn't. They were fortunate that their injured players came back in time and in good shape. The Bye had little to do with teams like GWS and Geelong exiting as suggested remembering the Dogs had a mountain of players returning against the Eagles from a long lay off and those players were excellent in demolishing them.

Our challenge is to build a list of 30+ really good AFL quality players. Building a list where most peak around the same time as well.

Game plans are all well and good but they mean little if your side isn't applying pressure and skilled. Was always our problem. As good as some of our past smaller players and small forwards were they didn't apply much pressure. Pressure was the key factor in the Dogs flag, their ability to force turnovers. You need the right players for any of the modern game plans to work, they all require pressure.

As it turns out Judd coming to Carlton did little. The culture never changed, we sold the farm by giving up one of the best big forwards in the game and a collection of high draft picks. Not to mention that he lifted us up the ladder which took away picks we really needed to build quality depth with that we failed to build. It was good for the fans and promotional purposes.

I've seen teams bottom out and rebuild really well. They trade and get extra picks and hit the draft well with really good drafting. Like we are doing. Others are more conservative and stagnate. You need more players coming in than the draft alone will give. You need to be in a hurry! We are, Hawthorn sure were.

Collingwood are going down a quick fix path. What they have is a coach who knows he has to win or will be sacked so he is going for results next year, either way it will catch up to him, they need to rebuild. Richmond are similar though poor drafting has been their problem for a long while.

Deas bottomed out, drafted the wrong players and drafted poorly with no real trading strategy, they failed to keep quality leadership at the club.

To open your window you need to source a good number of quality players over a short period of time. You need to really nail all avenues. Premiership sides have players from all avenues in their side. Early draft picks, mid round picks, late picks, rookie drafted players and sometimes free agents. The players will make the coach, there have been some average coaches in grand finals of recent times. Don't rate Lyon and Chris Scott, that Geelong side was self coached but a really good coach can be the difference in tight circumstances.

Good trading and drafting along with good strategy will get you a list of players good enough to do it. Good list management and coaching will top that off. Luck with injuries will do the rest. The line gets finer between teams the further you get up the ladder and that's when the little things really count. Fear not I really think we are on the right path, we seem to have a plan and are tactically going about it very well. The people at Carlton seem to be fairly good. We just need time.

I'm Glad we didn't sell Gibbs because they told us to. Give us 3 more years and we'll play finals.

 

[Masqualero]

So should I lock us in for the GF or....?

 

[thylacine60]

pencil....