The contenders - Hawthorn

[lozza63]

The Hawks have had a big year to date. They were touted as a top four side at the beginning of the year and were 2nd favourite for the flag in the preseason. I think that in respect to their results they are delivering on their pre-season hype!

It has been well documented that the Hawks have suffered some significant long term injuries to key personnel.

Roughhead, Stratton and Gilham three key big guys - once thought to be killers of their season, have only served to unearth the true quality of the depth that Hawthorn has. Out of the ashes have risen - Hale, Schoenmakers/Lisle and Max Bailey. These guys have made significant impact on the Hawks since mid year. Their injury list is now manageable. Even Stratton may return?

Not only that but their young guns - Smith, Savage, Shiels, Savage and Breust, have all significantly shown improvement and have been consistently good.

Key games:
Rd 4 vs WCE - back then the tight win against the Eagles at Aurora seemed an "average" performance - results since suggest it wasnt.
Rd 5 vs Geelong - the height of Hale and Buddy worried the Cats early, but the Cats slowly but surely ground the Hawks down for a solid win.
Rd 8 vs St Kilda - Saints started well, but after 1/4 time it was all the Hawks.
Rd 9 vs Sydney - the Hawks would not have felt confident pre-game - they need not have worried as they posted an eight goal victory.
Rd 12 vs Geelong - suffered a frustratingly close loss against the Cats.
Rd 14 vs Essendon - the game that the "kids" stood up in a crushing win for Hawks - lost Sewell and Cyril that game.
Rd 15 vs Collingwood - badly undermanned and soundly beaten - not that it meant all that much.
Rd 22 vs Carlton - looked far superior in the first half, just run out winners
in the end.

On face value, Hawthorn would seem to have had a "softish" draw - but in reality they have had to overcome much mid season upheaval and must really rate themselves come finals time.

Stats Stars:

Mitchell d - 31 cp - 13 cl - 6 t - 4 g(season) - 11 ga (season) - 16
Hodge d - 24 cp - 10 cl - 3 t - 3 g - 15 ga - 6
Birchall d - 24 cp - 6 cl - 0.5 t - 2 g - 3 ga - 4
Sewell d - 24 cp - 11 cl - 5 t - 5 g - 5 ga - 2
Suckling d - 24 cp - 5 cl - 0.5 t - 2 g - 7 ga - 3
Shiels d - 23 cp - 9 cl - 3 t - 6 g - 10 ga - 14
Lewis d - 23 cp - 8 cl - 3 t - 3 g - 9 ga - 23

Other significant performers:
Franklin - 71 goals - 19 disposals per game - 15 assists
Cyril - 26 goals - 5 tackles per game - 25 assists
Breust - 25 goals

Th Hawks have a strong list with many fine contributors across the board. They play a precision kicking possession game. Their maligned defense is statistically the 2nd or 3rd best in the league - courtesy of a huge season from Gibson in particular.
They do seem to rely on two or three guys for goal scoring - although those two are freaks. Hale offers fine support around the ground and up forward.
To be really dangerous guys like Sewell needs to impact the score board a little more - Mitchell has definitely improved in this area, Hodge Lewis and Shiels providing much of that midfield goal scoring/assisting.

All in all Hawks are dangerous, well drilled and likely to go very far into this years finals.

 

[magman29]

Our biggest danger in my opinion

 

[jonbe54]

Whatever the permutations if we stop or limit Buddy they won't get over us and we recruited just the guy to do it last year

 

[rhys_22]

I think we'll be ok if we play hawks.The thing about hawthorn is the past few years we couldnt contain buddy but now we can..he is the difference.Reidy is a VERY GOOD PLAYER and taz is doing very well there this year.And hawthorn can say they didnt have all their players in last time we played them but fact is neither did we.We had a few important ones out too..So no im not too worried about hawthorn or anyone really,all i am worried about iis thee pies and how they handle the pressure of going back to back coz that is all that stands in our way.GO PIES!!!

 

[Bay Pie]

Whatever the permutations if we stop or limit Buddy they won't get over us and we recruited just the guy to do it last year

Got it in one. Franklin will need to go off against us for them to win.

Their chippy chip chip game plan, appears somewhat similar to the uncontested type gameplan Port Adelaide played with in early '00s and that failed badly come finals time, mostly at our hands. They did snare a flag eventually, coincidentally when we were missing.

While they are dangerous, I'd expect to beat them 9 out of every 10 games. Geelong would be similar when they play Hawthorn. We just can't let that 1 game be when it matters most.

 

[rose jam]

Can't see their game plan standing up in finals, if they seriously think they're going to live off 25m kicks in the finals they're dead against us.

Franklin consistently kicks 4, but 6 in only 3 games in the last 3 years, plus the 8 against Port Adelaide a few weeks ago. He simply doesn't take contested marks to enjoy a higher output.

Rioli rarely plays well when you boil it down, and I think we have a myriad of players to dispose of him.

You just have to ensure a good midfield day from us and we have them covered everywhere.

 

[kevind]

Got it in one. Franklin will need to go off against us for them to win.

Their chippy chip chip game plan, appears somewhat similar to the uncontested type gameplan Port Adelaide played with in early '00s and that failed badly come finals time, mostly at our hands. They did snare a flag eventually, coincidentally when we were missing.

While they are dangerous, I'd expect to beat them 9 out of every 10 games. Geelong would be similar when they play Hawthorn. We just can't let that 1 game be when it matters most.

I don't think it would work either, but having watched their last few games, they have altered their style to eliminate a lot of their short passing game.

 

[rose jam]

I don't think it would work either, but having watched their last few games, they have altered their style to eliminate a lot of their short passing game.

a little, but when they get put under pressure that is what they'll resort to and we will get them on the flip, a lot

 

[Nicco_jj]

Our biggest danger in my opinion

+1 on this.


Geelong COULD beat us... but it would only ever be less than a goal IMO.

Hawthorn are the only team in the comp that i believe COULD beat us by 4+ goals.

We WILL meet them in finals. And it WILL be a knockout match. I would kinda have preffered to have played them in the first round of finals to be honest...


That being said, i have great confidence that we are the better side. However, they are the upsetters. They upset Geelong in 08'... i don;t want them to take our 2011 flag and then have us win next year and then do a Geelong and stop winning - be remembered as a 'great side' but only have 2 premierships (or one) to show for it. This would prove to be a massive injustice as our team has the youth and skill and leaders to be a superpower for the next 4 years.

 

[Ed D]

They're one of those sides that if everything clicks they have the players to do the damage. Franklin, Rioli, Hodge, Mitchell... they can all turn games. In saying that with their game plan and lack of KPP if we play well they won't come close.

 

[beez]

I think one thing that people tend to gloss over is their ability to win the contested ball in close - one of our strengths. Sewell, Lewis, Mitchell, Hodge, all fantastic at getting the ball going their way.

 

[Ed D]

I think one thing that people tend to gloss over is their ability to win the contested ball in close - one of our strengths. Sewell, Lewis, Mitchell, Hodge, all fantastic at getting the ball going their way.

That's true about their clearances. I still remember when I went to the Geelong v Hawthorn game, Hawthorn were better in the clearances and whenever they forced a ball up in their forward line they more often than not won them opening up scoring opportunities. Their game plan and the way they were coached was pathetic though, often starting with nobody in their forward line at centre bounces.

When we played them the same thing happened as far as pushing all their players into defence. Quite often they'd start with Buddy being the only person in their forward 50, and if Buddy started in the centre then they'd have nobody. They'd then win the clearance and either turn it over because nobody was there or they'd have to hold the ball up and kick backwards. When the ball was in our attacking zone sometimes their entire team was inside the 50m arch, same thing happened in the Geelong game.

 

[THATSGOLD]

could be a collingwood hawthorn granny if hawks beat geelong.

Which mean we would play geelong in the prelim.. that would be one tough premil.. i'll be so nervous!

 

[daics cousin]

True they could worry us come finals.

But if we meet the hawks they have to contend with Geelong First then if they lose they have to meet say a Stkilda or sydney in a cut throat final before they meet us if we beat west coast in a prelim.

By then they will be depleted and too tired.I reckon they are a threat but the Pies are too strong for them, not their year its pies for mine this year.

If they had a fit roughhead and Stratton then they could have been a bigger worry.

 

[MoeMick]

Our biggest danger in my opinion

Ditto.

 

[soreplums]

It will come down to the midfield. They set up their forwards most effectively from a stoppage as opposed to setting up from general play at half back (Hodge probably needs to go back there to do this with Suckling in IMO).

If we win the middle and the stoppages, I believe that our forwards will be too strong for their backs. I also believe that if they get the ball into space quickly in their forward line from a stoppage, we could be a little caught out.

Hodge, Mitchell and Buddy are the main match winners to stop against us. Then I'd throw in Sewell.

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

Agree with others.

Hawks are the biggest danger. But I have FAR more confidence since beating them with Franklin in the team.

Having Tarrant there makes me feel all safe and snuggly about Franklin.

As much as Hawthorn is probably our biggest threat, the biggest danger to Collingwood's chances are themselves.

 

[That's deliberate]

We will meet in September (more likely October)

MCG, fast track, winner takes all.

Very Happy to go into that Game against anyone with:
Hodge, Buddy, Sizzle, Burgoyne, Mitch, Sewell, Louie, Bateman and the kids
(Sheila, Savage, Suko, Isaac , Brewster, WX, Poppy,) & Co

Hawks by a lucky point or maybe a draw..(oh dear)