Prediction The "Finals Run" Before the Bye

[John Who]

We've just passed the season's quarter with 6 rounds played, and sitting currently on 9th spot. I thought it'd be interesting to look at the remaining 7 games before the bye, and surprisingly, we are going to be playing literally Finals-like games, with most the teams to play in the coming weeks mostly all in the current top 8!

Here's our fixture before the bye for 2019 (with ladder positions current as of end Round 6):

Rd 7: vs Freo (currently 2nd)

Rd 8: vs Port (currently 5th)

Rd 9: vs Brissy (currently 7th)

Rd 10: vs Eagles (currently 12th)

Rd 11: vs Dees (currently 18th)

Rd 12: vs GWS (currently 4th)

Rd 13: vs Tigers (currently 8th)

With the exception of the Dees, all the teams above are looking probable Finals contenders by year's end. Eagles in particular, are always a tough proposition despite being current 12th, but let's not forget they are the reigning premiers, and they're no easy beats at any stage in the past few years.

In an ideal world (as a Crows fan), winning all 7 of these games will do the club morale and BF morale a whole world of good! Win 4 or more would mean we're on the positive end of the Win:Loss ratio. Conversely, lose 4 or more then likely the Finals race would be extremely challenging thereafter.

Further thoughts, hopes and dreams?

 

[beartoo]

Reckon we can beat Freo, Pear, Brissy and Ds. The others would be good, but I'd be satisfied with 4. Still gives a shot at the 8.

 

[tinman]

Most of these teams where we play them makes a massive difference. Although our home form so far is far from convincing.

The good news is that if teams are currently in the eight, playing them head to head gives us the chance to displace them in the eight.

And if we can't beat them, there's really not much point in being in the eight making up the numbers.

I wish we were playing Richmond sooner rather than later, and bizzarely, would rather we played them at the MCG that at Adelaide Oval as a win at the G against Richmond would be massive for us. Whereas beating them at Adelaide Oval is expected and a loss is disastrous.

To be the best, you have to beat the best.

Good test over the next few weeks for sure.

And in all honesty, if we go down having a crack, and playing attacking footy that's disappointing but ok. I want to win every game but that's probably a tad unrealistic.

Just no more of that North Melbourne slow game rubbish. Serve me my own liver for dinner, and I'll poke my own eyes out with a fork when I'm finished eating rather than watch that again.

 

[PCORF]

These games will certainly decide the season and I don't think we are as good as we used to be like 2 or 3 years ago. Might grab 3, 4 or 5 of those games. Brisbane away from home to me is the toughest.

 

[Rotayjay]

We are an average side, we are not making the eight and even if we do, it won't help.

 

[jackster83]

The burning question will be how will we handle our next loss.

Will we fall apart and start blaming each other, recall Jenkins, Otten and Douglas, and bring back Collective Minds?

The same period last year we completely fell apart, which ultimately cost us finals.

 

[Thegibbsgamble]

Only gws bothers me. Yet they're unreliable.

West Coast appear to be unreliable after a flag. They've dished up two weeks lately, worse than anything we have so far.

Richmond at home, no issues.

Brisbane falling away.
Melbourne just shit
Wingard and gray, for years, won all of port's showdow victories, off thier own boot. Neither will play. We should extend our lead in overall.

If we shut them down across our half forward, freo will crumble.

Unless injuries get worse, I would be looking at 5 minimum.

 

[Thegibbsgamble]

The burning question will be how will we handle our next loss.

Will we fall apart and start blaming each other, recall Jenkins, Otten and Douglas, and bring back Collective Minds?

The same period last year we completely fell apart, which ultimately cost us finals.

There was one week, match committee had to pick injured players. Cupboard was bare. Three of our next 4 games at home.

 

[mattymac]

I actually think we'll be ok. Something about Pyke since the North game. He's not taking any prisoners. He's not dying wondering or going out like a limp Italian in the western desert. He's taken charge.

It will be up to the playing group. If they just do the basics of what they are paid hundreds of grand a year for, i.e. pay attention, bring effort and don't be self-absorbed self-flagellaters like Jenkins, we'll be ok.

We've got some talent coming back from injury over the next few rounds starting with Luke Brown and some of the early bolters with young lists like Brisbane and Port may well fall away as winter sets in and it becomes a slog.

 

[ManInTheArena]

Rd 7: vs Freo (currently 2nd)

Win. At home we should win this, although they are much improved and have caused some upsets.

Rd 8: vs Port (currently 5th)

Loss. Port are playing well and have an eight day break for this game.

Rd 9: vs Brissy (currently 7th)

Win. It's in Brisbane and they're not easy beats anymore but should win.

Rd 10: vs Eagles (currently 12th)

Win. We should win this in Adelaide but form can change quickly, as it did for us two weeks ago, and I doubt they'll still be down by round 10. This will be a hard game.

Rd 11: vs Dees (currently 18th)

Win. Again form changes and Melbourne won't be horrible all year. I think it will click for them before round 11 but this is at TIO, and I think we should win it.

Rd 12: vs GWS (currently 4th)

Win. Could go either way but will pick us at home.

Rd 13: vs Tigers (currently 8th)

Win. At home against the Tigers which we should get up for. Only concern is playing a big game like this on a five day break.

That's my assessment of what should happen for each individual game but this is football, and what should happen rarely happens, so scrub a couple of wins and it's probably realistic. The problem is picking the wins to scrub.

 

[John Who]

Most of these teams where we play them makes a massive difference. Although our home form so far is far from convincing.

The good news is that if teams are currently in the eight, playing them head to head gives us the chance to displace them in the eight.

And if we can't beat them, there's really not much point in being in the eight making up the numbers.

I wish we were playing Richmond sooner rather than later, and bizzarely, would rather we played them at the MCG that at Adelaide Oval as a win at the G against Richmond would be massive for us. Whereas beating them at Adelaide Oval is expected and a loss is disastrous.

To be the best, you have to beat the best.

Good test over the next few weeks for sure.

And in all honesty, if we go down having a crack, and playing attacking footy that's disappointing but ok. I want to win every game but that's probably a tad unrealistic.

Just no more of that North Melbourne slow game rubbish. Serve me my own liver for dinner, and I'll poke my own eyes out with a fork when I'm finished eating rather than watch that again.

Being teams from the current top 8, you’re right, if we win them all we’d likely overtake all their spots and likely end up second spot or perhaps even top. 5 wins would likely bump us up to the top 8.

Your last paragraph reminds me of a scene from Hannibal Rising..

 

[John Who]

We are an average side, we are not making the eight and even if we do, it won't help.

Suppose we win enough to be in the top 4, would that sway your thinking?

Not to mention most other teams (besides Geelong) have all lost and looked wobbly in patches. The ladder is still shaping, not properly formed yet.
The season’s only just started!

 

[Thegibbsgamble]

Suppose we win enough to be in the top 4, would that sway your thinking?

Not to mention most other teams (besides Geelong) have all lost and looked wobbly in patches. The ladder is still shaping, not properly formed yet.
The season’s only just started!

There is Alot of upside to us. Improvement from the new ruck combo, seedsman and milera returning, lots of run and penetration. Brown shuts down the best small Forward, allowing laird lose. Brown knows the system, experienced.

Geelong in trouble when injuries hit thier younger players. They have some grandpa's that will struggle if this happens.

The cheese on West coasts toast close to melting. They travel Alot, had a shortened pre season, losses like the last few effect sore bodies recovering.

Collingwood and richmond mcg specialists only.

Gws the unpredictable one.

Were one game from second spot.

 

[SugarShane]

It's a tough run. IMO we'd take 4 wins. 5 wins and start the bloody car.

There are a few you'd much rather be the other way around. GWS are red hot, we struggle against WCE at times, and Brisbane are odd this year. Probably rather play Bris at home to make sure of it, and give away games to GWS and WCE for games we'll probably drop anyway.

My thoughts

Freo Home - Win
Port Away - Lose
Bris Away - Win
WCE Home - Lose
Melb Away - Win
GWS Home - Lose
Rich Home - Win

 

[1990crow]

Simply must win against Freo this week.
Port game I’m confident on, Brown back will help. They’re playing well but we match up well on them.
Brisbane away I think we will win, especially if we win the previous 2.
WC home again if we win the previous 3, would think we can win.

See where I’m going with this? In form we can beat most sides. Whether or not this form continues or not is the question.

 

[pjcrows]

Impossible to know. Last year we got to 6W 3L and how'd that end up?

 

[WetCrow1991]

Impossible to know. Last year we got to 6W 3L and how'd that end up?

Were 7-3 in 2017 and 6-3 in 2016.

The main thing here is momentum, we have a tonne of down hill skiers in our side and if we get up and about we tend to do alright in home and away games. Problem for 2018 at 6-3 we had no momentum.

Play well this week and win, I can see us going 9-4

 

[CrowBloke]

I see what you're doing, and the speculation can be fun, but predicting Rounds 12 and 13 results from 5 and 6 weeks away is fraught with difficulty. Sooo much can change in that time. Form and momentum can be cruelled by injury. Team confidence is fickle, too, especially if say eg Jenkins and Jacobs are picked @ the expense of strongly-performing EH and ROB.
Looks like Match Committee have not figured out what to do with Poholke, Jones, Gallucci as well.
As for:

Further thoughts, hopes and dreams?

Well, I had hoped to win Powerball tonight, but no cigar .
Am looking forward to the returns of Brown, Seeds and Milera and if we make the Top 6 I hope we're playing our best footy with close to our best side at the business end of the year.

 

[John Who]

Impossible to know. Last year we got to 6W 3L and how'd that end up?

By comparisons to last year, we won 3 of our next 7 games from round 6. Injuries were happening left, right and centre. Also the media were hounding on our performances and the preseason camp which was a joke for them not highlighting the injury issues.

This year, if we can string the next few games, the morale seems to be a lot different and with players to come back. Media also not on our asses every week of the month! I think the next 2 rounds is the key, particularly against Freo and Port who are both in form.

 

[SugarShane]

think they are all winnable. would only concede geelong @ kardinia as a loss atm.

All our games have been winnable so far. Apart from Geelong we haven't played many quality sides.

 

[SugarShane]

Simply must win against Freo this week.
Port game I’m confident on, Brown back will help. They’re playing well but we match up well on them.
Brisbane away I think we will win, especially if we win the previous 2.

Differing attitudes of Crows fans. I can't see us winning all 3. Imo we drop at least one of them (on recent form).

A Freo or Port loss kicks us into gear, whereas if we win those 2 I think we go to Brisbane and fall short after a tough Showdown win.

Personally I have us beating Freo and Brisbane but losing to Port after a vintage 3 goal Westhoff effort with Rozee BOG.

 

[jackster83]

Annoying that Port get two extra days break than us before the showdown. We always seem to cop this - usually followed by another six day break.

 

[PCORF]

Annoying that Port get two extra days break than us before the showdown. We always seem to cop this - usually followed by another six day break.

The shorter break may be better though.

 

[PAFC_1870]

Annoying that Port get two extra days break than us before the showdown. We always seem to cop this - usually followed by another six day break.

I don't know about usual, I can remember a year or so ago coming back from Perth or so. Possibly near the China game too.

You can cancel out one day as it's interstate anyway.

 

[Murray2503]

I have a feeling this week against Freo and next week against port will most likely tell us where we are at and whether we will likely make finals or not. I still have my doubts on several players. They are Kelly, Hartigan, Atkins, Mackay, Knight, Lynch, Gibbs, Murphy. That's 8 players and all starting 22. The thing they all have in common is that their disposal can be poor and many of them are proven non performers when games matter. My other concern is that once Douglas and Jacob's are fit they will be brought in straight away. Club needs to move past them. Good servants but done. If we are to go anywhere we must introduce enthusiasm and speed into the team. Firstly a match fit Brown Seedsman, Milera will help our run and carry. We need to also get Mchenry, Jones and Mcadam into the team asap imo.

My best lineup once all players are fit minus Doedee is:

Laird Talia Brown
Smith Keath Milera
Seedsman Sloane Jones
McAdam/Lynch/Davis Walker Mchenry
Betts Himmelberg Stengle

ROB MCrouch BCrouch

Greenwood Gallucci Atkins/Mackay/Knight Gibbs/Fogarty/Hartigan/Sholl

As mentioned above Brown, Milera and Seedsman are proven best 22 and hopefully they will all be back over the next 3 to 5 weeks. I think the backline is pretty solid. Brown an upgrade on Kelly. Have put Gibbs in a group of 4 as his form has been quite poor. Would prefer Doedee over Hartigan but obviously won't happen to next year.
Centre line looks pretty good.
Half forward i have gone with Walker, McHenry and 1 of either Mcadam,Lynch,Davis. Would most likely like Mcadam to lock down this spot as I feel he offers more offensively and defensively than lynch. Mchenry I feel will add that defensive/attacking pressure balance which knight currently isn't plus ned is a proven gut runner.
Full forward line i have gone with Betts, Berg and Stengle over Murphy. Stengle has more attacking creativity and seems heir apparent to Betts.

Interchange is solid. Decided only 1 of Knight, Atkins and Mackay get a gig as all have some limitations.

Overall the team is a good age profile and has better pace combined with a better defensive/ attacking balance.