Preview The Greatest Ever Controversy In Sport - Round 3 vs Bravedogs

[Libba39]

Free kicks 2021 home and away
View attachment 1358248

So what you're saying is Swans are to Richmond as Bulldogs are to Swans...?

 

[Kiama Chris]

Found it since I have referenced it twice. Credit to Lsta062

9 from in front vs 4 from in front.
Telling.

 

[Kapers]

9 from in front vs 4 from in front.
Telling.

Don't be fooled, some of those are incredible snap shots from Heeney. Not to say they weren't well placed, but not many players could do what Heeney did that night.

 

[kelpie_X]

Bit old but.... check out 2016... slight outlier?

View attachment 1358447

Definitely a bought Premiership that one

 

[kelpie_X]

I'd be okay if I never heard the term "expected score" ever again. Seriously I had never heard of it before last week, then two of this year's expected contenders have bad losses despite leading in certain statistical categories and suddenly we're scrambling to explain it and define the phenomena.

Yep, it is a s**t term and s**t concept

 

[SM]

Yep, it is a s**t term and s**t concept

Because..?

 

[kelpie_X]

But expected score IS something the side can improve on! Having more i50s, more scoring shots, etc. will increase our expected score and highlights for the side an area they can improve on. We won't kick that straight every week, so having more i50s and more scoring shots will guard against that.

Einstein

 

[SM]

Einstein

Not quite sure what this post means, perhaps you can expand?

 

[ErrolisGoldun]

Because..?

I enjoy stats and xG works particularly well in Soccer because it is quite low scoring in comparison to Aussie Rules.

In Aussie Rules xG is almost like doing the same in basketball, high scoring sports in comparison.

This is just my synopsis, but there are far too many variables in footy than soccer.

Eg - in footy scoreboard pressure is real, as in where there is less pressure to score, (leading by 36pts), players have a knack to score more difficult goals. The same is true in reverse. How many times does a team get the yips, Geelong last week was a prime example, multiple missed efforts which inflated the xG but I don’t think is a fair reflection on the game.

Good stat for soccer not for footy.

 

[SM]

I enjoy stats and xG works particularly well in Soccer because it is quite low scoring in comparison to Aussie Rules.

In Aussie Rules xG is almost like doing the same in basketball, high scoring sports in comparison.

This is just my synopsis, but there are far too many variables in footy than soccer.

Eg - in footy scoreboard pressure is real, as in where there is less pressure to score, (leading by 36pts), players have a knack to score more difficult goals. The same is true in reverse. How many times does a team get the yips, Geelong last week was a prime example, multiple missed efforts which inflated the xG but I don’t think is a fair reflection on the game.

Good stat for soccer not for footy.

Sure, and that's why I said it probably needs to be refined (although I don't know the exact formula used), but the essence of the stat is still rather informative.

 

[ErrolisGoldun]

Btw the more I think of it, the more tonight really is a free hit for Sydney.

There is so much pressure on the bravedogs, imagine going 0-3, would be fantastic! Slightly reminds me of our 2017 start.

 

[ScrewInStuds]

Just got home from the pub. Dogs look the better team, but have they kicked any goals that weren't within two kicks of a free kick yet (serious question)? Fyi We'll run over them in the 2nd half

 

[SM]

Normal service resumed.

 

[robbieando]

Great backfire thread

 

[Bonz]

Great backfire thread

Predicted 31-12 as the free kick count.

31-14, actually did better than expected.

 

[Ticky009]

And thread is now locked - over to the Game Day thread for further gnashing of teeth