Politics The Hangar Tinfoil/Spirituality/Off key ramblings thread

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Beerfish said:
Primary producing is not what it used to be. It's the age of the corporation. They are our rulers now.
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And it's a crying shame. I fear for the future of rural Australia. They have put so much into this country since the beginning and they're being abandoned by big husiness and the government alike.
 
FUTURE PREDICTIONS:

In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide. Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt. What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 10 years - and most people don't see it coming. Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on paper film again?

Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore's law. So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a long time, before it became way superior and got mainstream in only a few short years. It will now happen with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs. Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution. Welcome to the Exponential Age.


Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.
Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world. Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties.


Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected. In the US, young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans. So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% fewer lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain. Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 time more accurate than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. By 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.


Autonomous Cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver's license and will never own a car. It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% fewer cars for that. We can transform former parking space into parks. 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 100,000 km, with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 10 million km. That will save a million lives each year.


Most car companies may become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels. I spoke to a lot of engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; they are completely terrified of Tesla.


Insurance Companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.


Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.


Electric cars won’t become mainstream until 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all cars will run on electric. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can only now see the impact. Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. The price for solar will drop so much that all coal companies will be out of business by 2025.


With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter. We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.


Health: There will be companies that will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breathe into it. It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medicine, nearly for free.


3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies started 3D printing shoes. Spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large number of spare parts they used to have in the past.


At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home. In China, they already 3D printed a complete 6-storey office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.


Business Opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask yourself: "in the future, do you think we will have that?" and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner? If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed in to failure in the 21st century.


Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time.


Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all days on their fields. Agroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal is now available and will be cheaper than cow-produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore. There are several startups that will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled as "alternative protein source" (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).


There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood you are. Until 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed when they are telling the truth and when not.


Bitcoin will become mainstream this year and might even become the default reserve currency.


Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more than one year increase per year. So we all might live for a long long time, probably way more than 100.


Education: The cheapest smart phones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia. Until 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smart phone. That means, everyone has the same access to world class education.


Robert M. Goldman MD, PhD, DO, FAASP
 
I grew up in Coburg, sort of near the big Kodak factory, so their demise is quite close to home for me in many ways.

The western half of their factory (it was divided in two by Edgars Creek) is now some food factory, while the eastern half has been demolished and is now part of a new housing estate (Coburg Hill).
 

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Howard Moon said:
3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies started 3D printing shoes. Spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large number of spare parts they used to have in the past.
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Criminals are also using them to print guns already too. I was not surprised to note in the reporting of a bikie raid by police recently that two 3D printers were amongst the items seized.
 
Doss said:
I grew up in Coburg, sort of near the big Kodak factory, so their demise is quite close to home for me in many ways.

The western half of their factory (it was divided in two by Edgars Creek) is now some food factory, while the eastern half has been demolished and is now part of a new housing estate (Coburg Hill).
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What does Kodak do in hindsight? Realise the potential of digital photography and buy out the technology with its immense market power before it takes hold?
 
Howard Moon said:
I don't exactly understand what they do, can you pretty much make replica shapes of anything?
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They are great for creating models and inexpensive parts for machines and humans (a lot still to be done in this area).
 
Howard Moon said:
What does Kodak do in hindsight? Realise the potential of digital photography and buy out the technology with its immense market power before it takes hold?
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Listen to the guys who invented the digital comera who worked at Kodak - apparently these guys invented the digital camera but the Kodak execs didn't want to cannibalise their current products.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_camera
 
Howard Moon said:
I don't exactly understand what they do, can you pretty much make replica shapes of anything?
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You're only limited by the size of your printer really and the quality of your source images.
 
Excuse my ignorance, but how does it actually work though?

Obviously you don't just type in gun and it prints out a working gun? You still need some kind of detailed working plans of the item you are printing?

Is that what the future becomes? Industry jobs get whittled down to people just creating complex designs to be printed?
 
Howard Moon said:
Excuse my ignorance, but how does it actually work though?

Obviously you don't just type in gun and it prints out a working gun? You still need some kind of detailed working plans of the item you are printing?

Is that what the future becomes? Industry jobs get whittled down to people just creating complex designs to be printed?
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The designs are three dimensional CAD (computer aided design). I think you can buy the design files online, but I'd expect them to be expensive because once you have the design you can print unlimited numbers of a product assuming you have enough of the plastic polymer stuff that it uses as "ink". More complex items you get the designs and it prints it in pieces, you still have to assemble it correctly.

As far as guns go, yes they can make them. But I've heard that they don't work particularly well and have a tendency to backfire, potentially killing the person holding it. I expect this is because you have a plastic barrel and a metal bullet, so the plastic of the chamber is weaker than the force needed to expel the bullet, so the chamber explodes when you pull the trigger. Technology only improves though, so it's really only a matter of time before it could be a very dangerous prospect.


Pretty cool though when you realise they can print replacement valves for people's hearts and stuff like that. They could use MRI scans and such to make one the exact right size and shape and whatever that the person needs :)
 
Fly said:
The designs are three dimensional CAD (computer aided design). I think you can buy the design files online, but I'd expect them to be expensive because once you have the design you can print unlimited numbers of a product assuming you have enough of the plastic polymer stuff that it uses as "ink". More complex items you get the designs and it prints it in pieces, you still have to assemble it correctly.

As far as guns go, yes they can make them. But I've heard that they don't work particularly well and have a tendency to backfire, potentially killing the person holding it. I expect this is because you have a plastic barrel and a metal bullet, so the plastic of the chamber is weaker than the force needed to expel the bullet, so the chamber explodes when you pull the trigger. Technology only improves though, so it's really only a matter of time before it could be a very dangerous prospect.


Pretty cool though when you realise they can print replacement valves for people's hearts and stuff like that. They could use MRI scans and such to make one the exact right size and shape and whatever that the person needs :)
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So this plastic is the only substance that can be used?
 

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Howard Moon said:
So this plastic is the only substance that can be used?
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I assume they're working on other things, but I haven't heard of anything else specifically. I imagine metal would be the next easiest thing to work with, but the temperatures and types of metal you're dealing with would present a challenge.

Imagine if they could combine this technology with stem cells?
 
Fly said:
I assume they're working on other things, but I haven't heard of anything else specifically. I imagine metal would be the next easiest thing to work with, but the temperatures and types of metal you're dealing with would present a challenge.

Imagine if they could combine this technology with stem cells?
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That was my first thought, body parts!
 
Well.I can say I've actuslly learnt something here today!

I was dangerously close to reaching that age where new technology is too overwhelming for me to enter Into....Once you have lost that touch you may as well be the old lady still going into the bank teller with a cheque book.

Still can't get past the thought 3d printers = building clone armies
 
TheBrightSide said:
Dr Karl wrote a good piece on 3D printers. And this is a couple of years old.

http://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2013/05/15/3759543.htm
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I was watching some sort of news article/documentary about it ages ago - probably last year. Someone tried to make a standard household cup with one. The faults in the printing process meant that it leaked and one of the versions of it was misshapen due to the way it had been done. It might've just been a crappy example, but I got the impression that while there's heaps of potential, it needs a lot of refinement.

The day we can 3D print blackholes and send 3D printers through a tear in the fabric of space-time, this thread will officially become redundant.
 
Fly said:
I was watching some sort of news article/documentary about it ages ago - probably last year. Someone tried to make a standard household cup with one. The faults in the printing process meant that it leaked and one of the versions of it was misshapen due to the way it had been done. It might've just been a crappy example, but I got the impression that while there's heaps of potential, it needs a lot of refinement.

The day we can 3D print blackholes and send 3D printers through a tear in the fabric of space-time, this thread will officially become redundant.
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There is probably a huge gap between the industrial printers and consumer ones. If Boeing are are printing engines, they would want to be pretty reliable!
But it really is in it's infancy, and advancements in this type of technology will snowball quickly, especially with serious financial backing.
 
TheBrightSide said:
The potential of 3D printers is incredible.
From things like medicine to complex electronics like smartphones.
3D printers will also be able to make copies of themselves.
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They can already self-replicate!
 
Howard Moon said:
So this plastic is the only substance that can be used?
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Can use many materials, there has been as much growth in the area of materials used as there has been in the actual printer technology itself.
Can print using plastic, metal, Food (chocolate is the big one) and ceramics. Small advances are being made in medical fields for the printing of organs and tissue.

Howard Moon said:
That was my first thought, body parts!
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http://www.engadget.com/2016/02/16/3d-printed-organs/
Future is here.

Fly said:
I was watching some sort of news article/documentary about it ages ago - probably last year. Someone tried to make a standard household cup with one. The faults in the printing process meant that it leaked and one of the versions of it was misshapen due to the way it had been done. It might've just been a crappy example, but I got the impression that while there's heaps of potential, it needs a lot of refinement.

The day we can 3D print blackholes and send 3D printers through a tear in the fabric of space-time, this thread will officially become redundant.
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The quality of the things you can make is quite good. There is also a pretty good market beginning to pop up for the sale of models and toys from movies and video games. People 3D print say a sword, or a gun out of a popular video game or movie and sell them for profit. It brings the manufacture of goods into the common household.

Fly said:
The designs are three dimensional CAD (computer aided design). I think you can buy the design files online, but I'd expect them to be expensive because once you have the design you can print unlimited numbers of a product assuming you have enough of the plastic polymer stuff that it uses as "ink". More complex items you get the designs and it prints it in pieces, you still have to assemble it correctly.

As far as guns go, yes they can make them. But I've heard that they don't work particularly well and have a tendency to backfire, potentially killing the person holding it. I expect this is because you have a plastic barrel and a metal bullet, so the plastic of the chamber is weaker than the force needed to expel the bullet, so the chamber explodes when you pull the trigger. Technology only improves though, so it's really only a matter of time before it could be a very dangerous prospect.

Not all designs are expensive, there are a few websites that share the files for free. You can get some good stuff. An example is http://www.thingiverse.com/

With the gun designs, they were very quickly swept off the internet from the popular searches by police and law enforcement. However if you know where to look you can find all that stuff.
Pretty cool though when you realise they can print replacement valves for people's hearts and stuff like that. They could use MRI scans and such to make one the exact right size and shape and whatever that the person needs :)
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I wonder if the point in time comes that the world realises it actually needs its billions of people doing pointless busy work rather than it all being fed into a multi function printer?

i mean what actually happens if 50% (arbitary figure) of the planets able workforce becomes unemployable? Do they just get left to enjoy their lives? are they all lumped onto the welfare state?

is it a scarey thought?
 
Howard Moon said:
I wonder if the point in time comes that the world realises it actually needs its billions of people doing pointless busy work rather than it all being fed into a multi function printer?

i mean what actually happens if 50% (arbitary figure) of the planets able workforce becomes unemployable? Do they just get left to enjoy their lives? are they all lumped onto the welfare state?

is it a scarey thought?
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I vote for relaxing and enjoying our lives. Let the machines do all the work.
The Russian word for "Worker" is "Robotnik".
 
TheBrightSide said:
I vote for relaxing and enjoying our lives. Let the machines do all the work.
The Russian word for "Worker" is "Robotnik".
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But I think the rested relaxed mind has too much time to think and conspire and rebel and revolutionise!

They don't want that! We are much more maliable when busy and stressed and dissconnected, with our short att.....what was I saying again?
 
Kind of related to this is "The Venus Project", fascinating stuff. There's more video's on Youtube too.
The cynic in me was waiting for talk of Jesus, God, or Aliens, but it never came. :)

 
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