The Labor Frontbench

[CharlieG]

So... who will take what position?

My attempt:

Industrial Relations - Gillard. She has a background in the area, it's going to be the election-shaping portfolio and she'll tear Andrews to pieces. She eluded the question on Lateline last night as to whether she would be Shadow Treasurer, and insisted she was 'happy to serve in any portfolio capacity that adds to Labor's chances". Reading between the lines, she won't be Shadow Treasurer.

Treasury - Tanner. Swan and Tanner are the other two chances for the job. Of those, it's hard to see Rudd put Swan - his erstwhile friend but now greatest rival - in ahead of Tanner, who's both more talented and a key supporter.

Foreign Affairs - Burke. This is a tough one, as Rudd was the only *obvious* candidate. The Australian has today suggested Crean... well, that would be a shock and a half. Burke has drawn level in Immigration - no mean feat for a first-term Shadow in a portfolio seen as a natural Coalition strength.

Health - Swan. Again, no obvious candidate. My guess is that Rudd will want to extend an olive branch to the Roosters - all with the exception of Conroy look like being demoted, but they can't be demoted too far - and Swan will hold his own against Abbott better than Smith will.

Education - Albanese. I might be crazy, but being married to Carmel Tebbutt, Rudd might see education as one area where Albanese can help 'end the blame game' between the Commonwealth and the states.

Environment - Garrett. No brainer, really. Knows the subject intimately from years as head of the Australian Conservation Foundation. Will be interesting to see what effect putting Garrett in will have on relations with the Greens. From an ALP view, they'd be hoping he can both mend relations (that have been sour since Latham's fall) and pinch back votes at the same time.

Attorney-General - Roxon. Been there since the 2004 election and has a background in the law before entering politics. Looks like being one of the few portfolios that will stay in place.

Defence - Smith. Again, the Roosters need to be demoted but not too far. McClelland has made no impact in the role since Latham put him there - although he might yet be rewarded for supporting Rudd with Foreign Affairs. Either way, Smith shapes as a decent match for Nelson in a portfolio where his complete lack of personality won't really hurt him.

Immigration - Wong. This could be a surprise choice. Does the ALP actually have the guts to put an immigrant in the Immigration portfolio? There's no doubt that Wong would comfortably measure up to Vanstone (well, maybe not literally...), and she has the advantage of being able to tackle her head to head in the Senate. Hopefully Rudd's willing to risk shabby shockjock polemics.

Child Care, Youth and Women - Plibersek. No particular reason to expect a change here. It's a natural strength area for the ALP and if Plibersek is given the profile she deserves then she'll keep the ALP in the game for at least a share of the progressive vote.

Finance - McMullan. I think that Comb-over will return to the front bench, and this is the logical spot. Tanner is ahead of him for Treasury and McMullan will replace him here.

That'll do for now. Might add more later. Anybody else want to have a go?

 

[Dry Rot]

Good effort Charlie.

Tanner must be shadow Treasurer.

Will enjoy Bishop chewing up that weasel Albanese.

 

[GuruJane]

If Garrett gets environment doesn't this mean Labor will be writing off Tasmania and the timber seats in Victoria again? (They lost two in the State election as well).

 

[- PC -]

Will enjoy Bishop chewing up that weasel Albanese.

And vice versa

 

[Freo Big Fella]

Would like to see the back of Albanese, but other than that I can't really fault that effort.

Tanner will run rings around Poision Pete.

 

[CharlieG]

If Garrett gets environment doesn't this mean Labor will be writing off Tasmania and the timber seats in Victoria again? (They lost two in the State election as well).

Hard to say - both are marginal seats. I'm inclined to think that forestry will be less of an issue this time. Keep D|ck Adams and his Gunns masters under control (how he wasn't expelled from the party I'll never know) and it shouldn't turn the election.

At the same time, even if it makes a difference in Bass and Braddon, it could help Tanner in Melbourne and Plibersek in Sydney. Might be that Garrett's electoral effect is neutral in the House and positive in the Senate.

 

[MrMeaner]

Environment - Garrett. ... Will be interesting to see what effect putting Garrett in will have on relations with the Greens. From an ALP view, they'd be hoping he can both mend relations (that have been sour since Latham's fall) and pinch back votes at the same time.

The Greens would still be smarting over the letter sent to the inner-Northern suburbs in the state election, wouldn't they?

The Northcote candidate is whinging pretty loudly.

 

[DaveW]

So... who will take what position?

My attempt:

Industrial Relations. She has a background in the area, it's going to be the election-shaping portfolio and she'll tear Andrews to pieces. She eluded the question on Lateline last night as to whether she would be Shadow Treasurer, and insisted she was 'happy to serve in any portfolio capacity that adds to Labor's chances". Reading between the lines, she won't be Shadow Treasurer.

That's the way I read it too. Is IR the portfolio? I can't stand the nonsensical fuss about Gillard not having a family. But this is the portfolio where Labor likes to emphasise family values. c.f. Rudd in question time yesterday

Speaking of question time, I've just reminded myself to switch over to channel two.

Treasury - Tanner. Swan and Tanner are the other two chances for the job. Of those, it's hard to see Rudd put Swan - his erstwhile friend but now greatest rival - in ahead of Tanner, who's both more talented and a key supporter.

Gotta be Tanner.

Foreign Affairs - Burke. This is a tough one, as Rudd was the only *obvious* candidate. The Australian has today suggested Crean... well, that would be a shock and a half. Burke has drawn level in Immigration - no mean feat for a first-term Shadow in a portfolio seen as a natural Coalition strength.

There's something of a recent tradition for former leaders in this portfolio. So Crean would continue that. I think for Downer and Hayden it was their price for an orderly succession. I believe Peacock usually held the portfolio in opposition when he wasn't leading the party.

Burke's one I hadn't thought of. But he'd certainly be worthy of a promotion.

I'd be more inclined to give it to someone with experience and talent. Carmen Lawrence or John Faulkner perhaps.

Health - Swan. Again, no obvious candidate. My guess is that Rudd will want to extend an olive branch to the Roosters - all with the exception of Conroy look like being demoted, but they can't be demoted too far - and Swan will hold his own against Abbott better than Smith will.

Swan will do. Gotta fit him in somewhere.

Education - Albanese. I might be crazy, but being married to Carmel Tebbutt, Rudd might see education as one area where Albanese can help 'end the blame game' between the Commonwealth and the states.

I'd thought of that one too. The coarse Albo against the prissy Bishop makes for a contrast.

Albo's factional colleague Tanya Plibersek is also a possiblity.

Environment - Garrett. No brainer, really. Knows the subject intimately from years as head of the Australian Conservation Foundation. Will be interesting to see what effect putting Garrett in will have on relations with the Greens. From an ALP view, they'd be hoping he can both mend relations (that have been sour since Latham's fall) and pinch back votes at the same time.

Yep. This one looks very likely.

Attorney-General - Roxon. Been there since the 2004 election and has a background in the law before entering politics. Looks like being one of the few portfolios that will stay in place.

Don't get what everyone sees in Roxon. But perhaps Christian Kerr had it right in yesterday's Crikey - she's just a placeholder until Mark Dreyfus QC arrives.

But here's another suggestion: Duncan Kerr. Former Justice Minister. Also acting Attorney-General (for a week?) whilst Michael Lavarch waited for the Dickson supplementary in 1993.

Defence - Smith. Again, the Roosters need to be demoted but not too far. McClelland has made no impact in the role since Latham put him there - although he might yet be rewarded for supporting Rudd with Foreign Affairs. Either way, Smith shapes as a decent match for Nelson in a portfolio where his complete lack of personality won't really hurt him.

Had thought of Smith in Defence as well. Pits one aspiring leader against another.

Immigration - Wong. This could be a surprise choice. Does the ALP actually have the guts to put an immigrant in the Immigration portfolio? There's no doubt that Wong would comfortably measure up to Vanstone (well, maybe not literally...), and she has the advantage of being able to tackle her head to head in the Senate. Hopefully Rudd's willing to risk shabby shockjock polemics.

Now here's one I hadn't thought of. But it certainly works.

Child Care, Youth and Women - Plibersek. No particular reason to expect a change here. It's a natural strength area for the ALP and if Plibersek is given the profile she deserves then she'll keep the ALP in the game for at least a share of the progressive vote.

If she can't be better utilised elsewhere then certainly.

Finance - McMullan. I think that Comb-over will return to the front bench, and this is the logical spot. Tanner is ahead of him for Treasury and McMullan will replace him here.

Yep. Either McMullan or Emerson.

That'll do for now. Might add more later. Anybody else want to have a go?

There are some obvious portfolios that fit strengths like Garrett and the environment. And then there are others where it's just a matter of sticking talented people in high profile portfolios.

One you haven't mentioned is Trade. This used to be Crean's portfolio before Beazley took it off him and gave it to Rudd. You might find Rudd separates Trade and Foreign Affairs once more. But again I don't really see an 'obvious' choice for this role. Aggriculture, Indigenous Affairs, Industry, Tourism and Communications/IT are also Cabinet portfolios.

 

[CharlieG]

The Greens would still be smarting over the letter sent to the inner-Northern suburbs in the state election, wouldn't they?

The Northcote candidate was whinging pretty loudly.

Yes. Their response was the top statement on their website on election day. "It's obvious that Garrett, whoever he once was, is now part of the machine."

The 'whoever he once was' is important, though. A positive, assertive environmental policy can turn that around. Most progressives are still Oils fans.

 

[- PC -]

Speaking of question time, I've just reminded myself to switch over to channel two.


.

Turn back to 9, the English have lost another wicket

 

[Murray]

Tanner and Swan both fighting for Shadow Treasuer.

Carmen Lawrence being talked about for a job too

 

[DaveW]

Cheers. I've missed both wickets this session.

(And what's wrong with England? Don't they realise runs are going to save them this match?)

 

[mantis]

The Greens would still be smarting over the letter sent to the inner-Northern suburbs in the state election, wouldn't they?

The Northcote candidate is whinging pretty loudly.

As he should be, Garrett lied, pure & simple to get the Greens votes, I think Garrett would fit better in the lying liberal party.

He is one of the reasons that I won't be voting for labor for a long time.

 

[Z_K]

I will be really disapointed if Tanner doesn't get a crack at Costello. Really disapointed. Would be Costello's least preffered option. Charlie, I read Gillard's response to the direct question re shadow treasury a little differently last night. I thought she played it straight, without ever even slightly ruling it out and her face told me she was after the gig.

Just hand Andrews to Gillard. He'll be sucking his thumb, lying in the corner by June.

 

[WA ROO]

Carmen Lawrence being talked about for a job too

Political suicide
Does Rudd want to beat Downers record

 

[Murray]

Political suicide
Does Rudd want to beat Downers record

Relax Benito, lots of names will be thrown up by supporters of certain individuals.
It is the way of the party

 

[MrMeaner]

As he should be, Garrett lied, pure & simple to get the Greens votes, I think Garrett would fit better in the lying liberal party.

He is one of the reasons that I won't be voting for labor for a long time.

I have just read it. It seems deliberately short on detail to me. It may overstate the position but it is truthful in saying that the Greens' decision in crucial seats made those seats more vulnerable to falling to the Libs.

For a party that acts 'holier than thou', the Greens do act cynically and spin just like the rest of them.

As long as your preferences come to Labor (as they should if you actually do care about green issues), Garrett and the rest of the party (including me) could not care less.

 

[mantis]

I have just read it. It seems deliberately short on detail to me. It may overstate the position but it is truthful in saying that the Greens' decision in crucial seats made those seats more vulnerable to falling to the Libs.

For a party that acts 'holier than thou', the Greens do act cynically and spin just like the rest of them.

As long as your preferences come to Labor (as they should if you actually do care about green issues), Garrett and the rest of the party (including me) could not care less.

That isn't what my friends in that electorate told me, they said that Garrett indicated that the Green's were giving their preferences to the Libs in those seats, that was an out & out lie.

I wish Garrett hadn't joined the Labor party.

 

[- PC -]

That isn't what my friends in that electorate told me, they said that Garrett indicated that the Green's were giving their preferences to the Libs in those seats, that was an out & out lie.

I wish Garrett hadn't joined the Labor party.

So you didnt read the ''letter''?

 

[MrMeaner]

That isn't what my friends in that electorate told me, they said that Garrett indicated that the Green's were giving their preferences to the Libs in those seats, that was an out & out lie.

That's the implication but not what it says. Read the Northcote letter for youself:

From the Greens' site

I wish Garrett hadn't joined the Labor party.

I'm glad he did.

 

[mantis]

That's the implication but not what it says. Read the Northcote letter for youself:

From the Greens' site[/U

That's exactly what he says, "you should be aware of the preference deal between the Greens & the Libs", it is blatant scare tactic, Garrett would be better suited to the Libs.

 

[CharlieG]

That's the way I read it too. Is IR the portfolio? I can't stand the nonsensical fuss about Gillard not having a family. But this is the portfolio where Labor likes to emphasise family values. c.f. Rudd in question time yesterday

I don't understand it either, and to be honest I'd be stunned if it had any impact on the decision. If they were that worried about it she wouldn't be the deputy leader.

There's something of a recent tradition for former leaders in this portfolio. So Crean would continue that. I think for Downer and Hayden it was their price for an orderly succession. I believe Peacock usually held the portfolio in opposition when he wasn't leading the party.

Burke's one I hadn't thought of. But he'd certainly be worthy of a promotion.

I'd be more inclined to give it to someone with experience and talent. Carmen Lawrence or John Faulkner perhaps.

I'm hoping Lawrence returns to the Shadow Ministry, but it won't be this high up. There's also a tradition that a Foreign Affairs spokesman is particularly erudite, a diplomat-in-waiting - see Downer, Rudd, Evans and Peacock. Crean, simply, isn't up to that standard.

I'd thought of that one too. The coarse Albo against the prissy Bishop makes for a contrast.

Albo's factional colleague Tanya Plibersek is also a possiblity.

I hadn't really thought of Plibersek. Good get. I think it will be Albo though - he's one of those that needs to be found a senior portfolio.

Don't get what everyone sees in Roxon. But perhaps Christian Kerr had it right in yesterday's Crikey - she's just a placeholder until Mark Dreyfus QC arrives.

I thought of that too.

But here's another suggestion: Duncan Kerr. Former Justice Minister. Also acting Attorney-General (for a week?) whilst Michael Lavarch waited for the Dickson supplementary in 1993.

Interesting suggestion. There's talk that he's planning a comeback to the frontbench. Might be Justice up against Ellison, though.

Now here's one I hadn't thought of. But it certainly works.

There's the precedent of Gillard being an immigrant in this portfolio. Of course, she was a Pom. I wonder if the old 'two Wongs don't make a White' still has currency in the ALP?

If she can't be better utilised elsewhere then certainly.

It's not a filler portfolio. It's a big point of difference between the ALP and Coalition.

One you haven't mentioned is Trade. This used to be Crean's portfolio before Beazley took it off him and gave it to Rudd. You might find Rudd separates Trade and Foreign Affairs once more. But again I don't really see an 'obvious' choice for this role. Aggriculture, Indigenous Affairs, Industry, Tourism and Communications/IT are also Cabinet portfolios.

Here we go.

Primary Industries, Resources and Regional Development - Emerson. After Gillard, Tanner and McMullan take the big three industrial/economic portfolios, Emerson is the logical man for the fourth. These areas are currently held separately by Ferguson and Crean, but logically should be under the one umbrella.

Trade - Crean. Has an economic/industrial background but isn't up to taking on Costello or Minchin, and IR is simply too important this time around. Agree with Dave that Trade will be split from Foreign Affairs, and this is the logical place for Simon.

Family and Community Services - Fitzgibbon. Won't be a woman - there's finally been recognition in the past couple of years that treating this as a 'women's issue' is outdated. Fitzgibbon is due for a promotion and, as a Lathamite, could help to shore up the Crean-Latham rump in a portfolio they always took seriously.

Aged Care, Disabilities and Carers - Lawrence. I might have taken the easy way out here. She was Health and Ageing Minister under Keating, and this is not a portfolio area where votes will be won by Rudd's 'new generation'. If Lawrence is to return to the frontbench, this is where it'll happen.

Agriculture, Fisheries (and Forestry?) - M.Ferguson. Perhaps a surprising choice, but this is a nightmare portfolio for a party based overwhelmingly in the cities. If only Graham Edwards wasn't retiring. Might also be the place to hide Mark Bishop.

It's getting hard. More in the next post.

 

[MrMeaner]

That's exactly what he says, "you should be aware of the preference deal between the Greens & the Libs", it is blatant scare tactic, Garrett would be better suited to the Libs.

No. You can make a preference deal that involves split how-to-vote cards (ie an agreement not to direct preferences against the Libs) in certain seats. They did do that in a number of seats. Whether that was part of a deal or not, I don't know. I do know that the Greens have denied it but I don't necessarily believe them.

Garrett's letter is certainly a scare tactic but not necessarily a lie.

Garrett is perfectly suited to the ALP.

 

[mantis]

No. You can make a preference deal that involves split how-to-vote cards (ie an agreement not to direct preferences against the Libs) in certain seats. They did do that in a number of seats. Whether that was part of a deal or not, I don't know. I do know that the Greens have denied it but I don't necessarily believe them.

Garrett's letter is certainly a scare tactic but not necessarily a lie.

Garrett is perfectly suited to the ALP.

Well while Garrett's there, a lot of ex Laborites who have turned to the Greens, won't be swapping back.

 

[CharlieG]

Tourism - Conroy. Hasn't made a dent against a hack Comm Minister in Coonan. Telstra sale, media deregulation and broadband have all disappeared as issues. Needs a position on the frontbench, but it needs to be one where he can't do any damage. Tourism is the best I can come up with.

Communications/IT - Faulkner. Please, please come back to the front bench, Guv. Probably the only Senator aside from Wong and maybe Sherry that can tackle Coonan - and that's embarassing.

Indigenous Affairs - Evans. I would like to see this become a bigger issue than it is, and I think that Brough is wide open to be attacked. It won't happen, though. Evans will retain the job.

Housing and Urban Development - Anna Burke. There's been talk that Burke is one backbencher due for a promotion. Kim Carr will probably retain his spot on the frontbench and if he does, there's a fair chance he'll keep his relatively safe portfolio. However, I'll go with Burke.

Justice and Customs - Kerr. The 'new generation' is filling up with old Keating ministers, but that's not a bad thing as long as their capable, and Kerr is that. Don't think that he'll displace Roxon as Shadow A-G and Dreyfus is looming on the horizon, but if he wants to return to the frontbench (rumoured that he does) then Justice could be the place.

Homeland Security - McClelland. A silly portfolio that seems to fit somewhere between Defence and Justice/Customs. I suspect it's there mostly because of the title... but McClelland needs to be fit in somewhere and seems to be regarded by the ALP as a defence/security specialist.

Superannuation - Sherry. Will retain his current portfolio, mostly because there's nowhere obvious to move him to. Might find himself with Communications if Faulkner doesn't return.