Play Nice The NM Devils Chessboard thread.

[The Warlord]

The Weakness of the Despot

An expert on Stalin discusses Putin, Russia, and the West.

www.newyorker.com

I've read many of the articles and views posted here. This article resonated with me. The credentials of the interviewee appear good, but curious as what and who do you believe?

For many we now live in a world where anything is possible, but nothing is true. The gaslighting is real!

One thing is certain the world all over needs better diplomacy, ultruism and kindness. I like to look at what we have in common, and build on that. Somehow, we need to find a way.

Really interesting read, thanks for posting! Its a fascinating piece, but bits don't stack up against each other to a certain degree.

It’s a military-police dictatorship. Those are the people who are in power. In addition, it has a brilliant coterie of people who run macroeconomics. The central bank, the finance ministry, are all run on the highest professional level. That’s why Russia has this macroeconomic fortress, these foreign-currency reserves, the “rainy day” fund. It has reasonable inflation, a very balanced budget, very low state debt—twenty per cent of G.D.P., the lowest of any major economy. It had the best macroeconomic management.

This shoots down a few myths. That Putin is crazy, incompetent, they're doomed by sanctions. They've clearly been planning for this a long time and prepared very very well.

They hire them precisely because they won’t be too competent, too clever, to organize a coup against them. Putin surrounds himself with people who are maybe not the sharpest tools in the drawer on purpose.

This doesn't make sense though. One minute Russia's economy is run by a brilliant coterie of people at the highest professional level, next Putin deliberately chooses people who aren't that sharp?

First of all, Ukraine is winning this war only on Twitter, not on the battlefield. They’re not winning this war. Russia is advancing very well in the south, which is an extremely valuable place because of the Black Sea littoral and the ports. They are advancing in the east. If the southern and eastern advances meet up, they will encircle and cut off the main forces of the Ukrainian Army. What’s failed so far is the Russian attempt to take Kyiv in a lightning advance. Otherwise, their war is unfolding well. It’s only a couple of weeks in; wars last much longer.

Yes, the Russians are winning. Looks increasingly like the Russian strategy is to make the gains they want elsewhere away from the spotlight, then surround Kyiv and say, OK, well either you accept terms that give us what you want, or we'll level your capital.

If Zelensky refuses, they'll level it and keep the stuff they want anyway.

This idea Putin got cut and had a meltdown one day and decided to invade because he's crazy and a Bad Dude is for children.

They've been preparing for this for a long time. That WE think their goal was to rush Kyiv and get a quick win reflect the fact that's what WE would do.

Russia is winning the war, comfortably.

Putin pretends to be crazy in order to scare us and to gain leverage.

The US is led by a senile career politician. The UK by a distracted corrupt venal quite likely compromised career politician.

Putin is far smarter than his opponents.

It's a really interesting piece and the author is right in that despotisms always end badly for the despot.

But all political careers end in failure lol.

 

[The Warlord]

It always comes back to mutually assured destruction doesn’t it. Just had a look, apparently there’s 11 countries with nukes.

North Korea
China
USA
France
Pakistan
Russia
India
UK
Israel
South Africa
Russia

Is Israel the only country in the Middle East with nukes?

It is, but in this case it wouldn't be nukes.

They'd face an immediate embargo by all Arab nations who would place the embargo on any countries also trading with Israel.

Their cities would blow up in a huge Arab revolt.

And they still wouldn't have beaten Hezbollah. In fact, if they were nuking Lebanon it'd be beacuse they knew they were beaten and were trying their Samson Strategy

 

[The Warlord]

Again, Ukraine is allowed to be allied and train with whoever they like.

LOL, no they aren't. Nobody is. We aren't.

Why do you think we keep pissing away billions of dollars on bullshit US equipment that never works or turns up?

 

[ferball]

Again, Ukraine is allowed to be allied and train with whoever they like. There’s no excuse for what Russia is doing.

They certainly aren’t worried about gay rights, have you seen how gays are treated in Russia?

How about black people?

Russia aren’t the good guys here.

There are NO good guys here on any level politically. Maybe Zelensky cos he wasn't in politics until recently but apart from the ordinary people doing what they can to survive - no good guys.

I never said there were good guys.

 

[ferball]

LOL, no they aren't. Nobody is. We aren't.

Why do you think we keep pissing away billions of dollars on bullshit US equipment that never works or turns up?

Why don't we have our own nukes?

#noncontroversialopinions

 

[Val Keating]

There are NO good guys here on any level politically. Maybe Zelensky cos he wasn't in politics until recently but apart from the ordinary people doing what they can to survive - no good guys.

I never said there were good guys.

Bullshit. Russia are 100% the bad guys. They have invaded and are killing civilians. Ukraine is only defending themselves.

 

[Val Keating]

LOL, no they aren't. Nobody is. We aren't.

Why do you think we keep pissing away billions of dollars on bullshit US equipment that never works or turns up?

Because we CHOOSE to be allied with the US of course.

 

[Eggs11]

If the US hadn't been pushing the sh*t they talk about in this paper for well over a decade none of this would have happened. The US is f’ed. It goes out of its way to stir up sh*t all over the world.

Your angst at the US is understandable, but your narrative that poor Vlad was sitting back drinking vodka while the yanks trained a paramilitary force in Ukraine to …. (What? Invade Russia?) is incredibly one sided.

Your narrative ignores that Vlad has been talking about expanding Russia since he first became President. It ignores Chechnya. It ignores Georgia. It ignores him establishing a puppet state in Belarus. It ignores him arming separatists in Ukraine’s north. It ignores that Putin has said that Ukraine is not a real country. It ignores him personally intervening to put a pro-Russian president into power 12 years ago. It ignores that he is reportedly manoeuvring to reinstall the same guy 12 years later. And so on…

So, yes, by all means continue the repetition about the evil US and NATO have done (we all know they have), but don’t be willfully ignorant to the other side of the coin, particularly when that side is committing mass murder.

 

[Sopwiths North]

The Weakness of the Despot

An expert on Stalin discusses Putin, Russia, and the West.

www.newyorker.com

I've read many of the articles and views posted here. This article resonated with me. The credentials of the interviewee appear good, but curious as what and who do you believe?

For many we now live in a world where anything is possible, but nothing is true. The gaslighting is real!

One thing is certain the world all over needs better diplomacy, ultruism and kindness. I like to look at what we have in common, and build on that. Somehow, we need to find a way.

Thanks for posting that article Joe, it's a good read.

We have a massive problem with truth in our world right now, and I'm not really sure how we got here. Social media maybe? I don't know. But what shocks me is the amount of garbage out there that intelligent people actually believe. It's depressing, and it's also pretty scary. Smart people falling for bs on twitter feeds. It's like we've become completely detached from our intuition as a species. No more voice in your head, or feeling in your gut, that says "Hmm..this doesn't sound quite right. I think I'll try to source whether or not it's true."

It feels like more and more people are weirdly questioning reputable voices and sources, while at the same time spreading, and seemingly believing, utter crap and lies.

You're 100% right about the world needing better diplomacy, altruism, and kindness. We also need more truth.

On that note, some truth from the article you posted:


"We’ve been hearing voices both past and present saying that the reason for what has happened is, as George Kennan put it, the strategic blunder of the eastward expansion of NATO. The great-power realist-school historian John Mearsheimer insists that a great deal of the blame for what we’re witnessing must go to the United States. I thought we’d begin with your analysis of that argument.

I have only the greatest respect for George Kennan. John Mearsheimer is a giant of a scholar. But I respectfully disagree. The problem with their argument is that it assumes that, had NATO not expanded, Russia wouldn’t be the same or very likely close to what it is today. What we have today in Russia is not some kind of surprise. It’s not some kind of deviation from a historical pattern. Way before NATO existed—in the nineteenth century—Russia looked like this: it had an autocrat. It had repression. It had militarism. It had suspicion of foreigners and the West. This is a Russia that we know, and it’s not a Russia that arrived yesterday or in the nineteen-nineties. It’s not a response to the actions of the West. There are internal processes in Russia that account for where we are today.

...The worst part of this dynamic in Russian history is the conflation of the Russian state with a personal ruler. Instead of getting the strong state that they want, to manage the gulf with the West and push and force Russia up to the highest level, they instead get a personalist regime. They get a dictatorship, which usually becomes a despotism.

...You have an autocrat in power—or even now a despot—making decisions completely by himself. Does he get input from others? Perhaps. We don’t know what the inside looks like. Does he pay attention? We don’t know. Do they bring him information that he doesn’t want to hear? That seems unlikely. Does he think he knows better than everybody else? That seems highly likely. Does he believe his own propaganda or his own conspiratorial view of the world? That also seems likely. These are surmises. Very few people talk to Putin, either Russians on the inside or foreigners.

And so we think, but we don’t know, that he is not getting the full gamut of information. He’s getting what he wants to hear. In any case, he believes that he’s superior and smarter. This is the problem of despotism. It’s why despotism, or even just authoritarianism, is all-powerful and brittle at the same time. Despotism creates the circumstances of its own undermining. The information gets worse. The sycophants get greater in number. The corrective mechanisms become fewer. And the mistakes become much more consequential.

Putin believed, it seems, that Ukraine is not a real country, and that the Ukrainian people are not a real people, that they are one people with the Russians. He believed that the Ukrainian government was a pushover. He believed what he was told or wanted to believe about his own military, that it had been modernized to the point where it could organize not a military invasion but a lightning coup, to take Kyiv in a few days and either install a puppet government or force the current government and President to sign some paperwork.

...The biggest surprise for Putin, of course, was the West. All the nonsense about how the West is decadent, the West is over, the West is in decline, how it’s a multipolar world and the rise of China, et cetera: all of that turned out to be bunk. The courage of the Ukrainian people and the bravery and smarts of the Ukrainian government, and its President, Zelensky, galvanized the West to remember who it was. And that shocked Putin. That’s the miscalculation."

 

[Sopwiths North]

Speaking of truth, Putin can't keep this going forever. People know. People are going to be increasingly finding out the truth. You can't hide truth forever. And young people in Russia, those with more connection to the outside world, they have known for a long while before this.



Respect too, for the tens of thousands of Russians brave enough to protest. It's not like protesting in a free country. You protest in Russia, you're going to get beaten, arrested, and jailed. All kudos to their bravery.

 

[Sopwiths North]

 

[Sopwiths North]

 

[Sopwiths North]

Zelensky to speak to the Canadian Parliament on Tuesday.

 

[ferball]

The Weakness of the Despot

An expert on Stalin discusses Putin, Russia, and the West.

www.newyorker.com

I've read many of the articles and views posted here. This article resonated with me. The credentials of the interviewee appear good, but curious as what and who do you believe?

For many we now live in a world where anything is possible, but nothing is true. The gaslighting is real!

One thing is certain the world all over needs better diplomacy, ultruism and kindness. I like to look at what we have in common, and build on that. Somehow, we need to find a way.

Its always been the way. That saying (Nothing is true, everything is permissible) was attributed to Hassan i Sabbah, the legendary founder of the order of Assassins about 1000 years ago.

It was a good article. But ... contrasting it with Mearscheimer's view when it is both things playing a part most likely. Maybe Putin would have invaded Ukraine eventually anyway. But I dunno if that is a fair assessment. This situation has devolved over more than a decade. Without the pressure ofof Ukraine having a relationship with Nato why would he bother invading the place? He and Ukraine have the infrastructure and assets to work together to sell energy from one end of Eurasia to the other. You can't assess the world properly without taking into account all the circumstances in any situation.

Its certainly true that successful Russian leaders tend to be autocratic, tough people. But Putin also makes speeches and has for years and always had a particular economic vision for Russia that involved a strong welfare state funded by energy concerns, eventually forming a challenge nto US dollar hegemony. He has talked about it for years and built towards it until 2014 when it started going pear shaped. I dunno if his speeches are still on youtube but heaps of them were a months ago. Its clear he wanted to do more thn just invade Ukraine or rebuild the Soviet Union. He wanted to build something else. He did have a vision for what he wanted that wasn't just be a strongman. I think he wanted to leave a historical legacy where he left Russia as a strong modern nation that was economically powerful first.

Its just buying into stupid propaganda to ignore that, cos he said it regularly in public speeches.

I'm not endorsing him either. He's a campaigner who has murdered his own people, journalists and rose to power on the sort of far right nationalism he's now whinging about. But he's like Gadaffi. Who also had a vision and turned his country from a backwater to a viable, modern nation till he got regime changed. One of the nations that formed Nato was a repressive dictatorship. But on balance that dictator did okay given their countries circumstances. Alot of these dictators aren't just *******s. They often try to build useful things with their power. Its part of nationalism, or pan africanism in Gadaffi's case.

Where this goes now who knows. Putin is probably happy to walk away with a buffer zone in Eastern Ukraine, maybe from the border to the river, and control of all their energy resources in the East and South. In 5 or 10 years he may be gone but he'll know Russia will have control of those resources forever now. Before the US really started meddling in this Ukraine did.

 

[joegreen]

Really interesting read, thanks for posting! Its a fascinating piece, but bits don't stack up against each other to a certain degree.



This shoots down a few myths. That Putin is crazy, incompetent, they're doomed by sanctions. They've clearly been planning for this a long time and prepared very very well.



This doesn't make sense though. One minute Russia's economy is run by a brilliant coterie of people at the highest professional level, next Putin deliberately chooses people who aren't that sharp?


Yes, the Russians are winning. Looks increasingly like the Russian strategy is to make the gains they want elsewhere away from the spotlight, then surround Kyiv and say, OK, well either you accept terms that give us what you want, or we'll level your capital.

If Zelensky refuses, they'll level it and keep the stuff they want anyway.

This idea Putin got cut and had a meltdown one day and decided to invade because he's crazy and a Bad Dude is for children.

They've been preparing for this for a long time. That WE think their goal was to rush Kyiv and get a quick win reflect the fact that's what WE would do.

Russia is winning the war, comfortably.



The US is led by a senile career politician. The UK by a distracted corrupt venal quite likely compromised career politician.

Putin is far smarter than his opponents.

It's a really interesting piece and the author is right in that despotisms always end badly for the despot.

But all political careers end in failure lol.

Just on the section of people close (not so smart) to him and those managing the macro economics (smart); I took that as 2 distinct groups. The former are part of his inner network. Bumbling ministers if you will, and the later are the hard working, competent public servants... to put it in an Australian context.


Edit.... like straight out of the ABC comedy Utopia....

 

[ferball]

Bullshit. Russia are 100% the bad guys. They have invaded and are killing civilians. Ukraine is only defending themselves.

That video is a leaked phone call between the US ambassador to Ukraine and the US Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, arranging who they will install in power after the coup they arranged in 2014. It led directly to this situation.

So what is Ukraine?

That puppet regime?

The state, or the government? The country? "The people"? Which people?

None of this would have happened if those people recorded in that phone call hadn't been doing that s**t in that phone call.

Everything would have played out differently.

 

[Val Keating]

That video is a leaked phone call between the US ambassador to Ukraine and the US Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, arranging who they will install in power after the coup they arranged in 2014. It led directly to this situation.

So what is Ukraine?

That puppet regime?

The state, or the government? The country? "The people"? Which people?

None of this would have happened if those people recorded in that phone call hadn't been doing that sh*t in that phone call.

Everything would have played out differently.

Are you talking about the battle of the two Victors? That was before Zelenskyy. One was pro Russia, the other was pro west. I’m not saying Ukraine isn’t corrupt. They definitely are corrupt. A lot of countries are corrupt beyond a level that we don’t have here in Australia.

Still doesn’t justify Russia invading Ukraine. Doesn’t justify Russia literally kidnapping mayors and installing new Russian mayors (who will probably be taken out as soon as Russia leaves). It definitely doesn’t justify targeting civilians. And the worst is yet to come.

The only country responsible for this is Russia. After lying for months saying they wouldn’t invade, they invaded. Putin always wanted Ukraine back under Russia, especially the east. Moldova is probably next because there’s ethnic Russian there. What excuse will you give him then?

That KBG agent I posted a video of earlier in the thread thinks he sees himself like Peter the great.

 

[B4Bear]

Ukraine police officer’s entire family ‘killed while fleeing Russian invasion’

Wife, daughter, baby son and parents of Oleg Fedko reportedly killed in attack while cameraman and Israeli DJ among other fatalities

www.theguardian.com

But yeah, justified.

People who are justifying this have either:

a. Never actually been on the ground and see what war does.

b. Apologists.

This is not some liberal arts University debating society with no consequences, This is real life where we are literally watching a nation be deconstructed in real time, live on television and in front of our eyes.

If you can look at the bodies and justify this war, well, you are a different person to me.

 

[Eggs11]

That video is a leaked phone call between the US ambassador to Ukraine and the US Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, arranging who they will install in power after the coup they arranged in 2014. It led directly to this situation.

So what is Ukraine?

That puppet regime?

The state, or the government? The country? "The people"? Which people?

None of this would have happened if those people recorded in that phone call hadn't been doing that sh*t in that phone call.

Everything would have played out differently.

None of that gives Russia the right to commit mass murder.

 

[ferball]

Are you talking about the battle of the two Victors? That was before Zelenskyy. One was pro Russia, the other was pro west. I’m not saying Ukraine isn’t corrupt. They definitely are corrupt. A lot of countries are corrupt beyond a level that we don’t have here in Australia.

Still doesn’t justify Russia invading Ukraine. Doesn’t justify Russia literally kidnapping mayors and installing new Russian mayors (who will probably be taken out as soon as Russia leaves). It definitely doesn’t justify targeting civilians. And the worst is yet to come.

The only country responsible for this is Russia. After lying for months saying they wouldn’t invade, they invaded. Putin always wanted Ukraine back under Russia, especially the east. Moldova is probably next because there’s ethnic Russian there. What excuse will you give him then?

That KBG agent I posted a video of earlier in the thread thinks he sees himself like Peter the great.

This phone call was recorded after that, during Euromaiden. The US diplomats are discussing which Ukrainian leader they will annoint in the election.

Once that happened there was always gonna be a war. Because Putin is a campaigner and the only response he will give will be to not back down.

Before that, before even the two Victors, or during their stoushes, Tymmochenko negotiated that gas deal with Putin that saw the Russians sell gas directly to the Ukrainian state. both Victors turned on Tymmochenko after that and both ended up with American advisors, even the pro Russian one (Yanokovich.)

The guy they refer to as the one they want "Yats" is Arseniy Yatsenyuk. He was PM for two years afterward.

 

[B4Bear]

This phone call was recorded after that, during Euromaiden. The US diplomats are discussing which Ukrainian leader they will annoint in the election.

Once that happened there was always gonna be a war. Because Putin is a campaigner and the only response he will give will be to not back down.

Before that, before even the two Victors, or during their stoushes, Tymmochenko negotiated that gas deal with Putin that saw the Russians sell gas directly to the Ukrainian state. both Victors turned on Tymmochenko after that and both ended up with American advisors, even the pro Russian one (Yanokovich.)

The guy they refer to as the one they want "Yats" is Arseniy Yatsenyuk. He was PM for two years afterward.

So was the current president part of this conspiracy? Or are we using historical grievances as justification for any nation state action?

 

[Val Keating]

The dogs are bombing Lviv where a lot of the refugees go to to get shelter as they try to leave Ukraine. Just disgraceful.

 

[Val Keating]

This phone call was recorded after that, during Euromaiden. The US diplomats are discussing which Ukrainian leader they will annoint in the election.

Once that happened there was always gonna be a war. Because Putin is a campaigner and the only response he will give will be to not back down.

Before that, before even the two Victors, or during their stoushes, Tymmochenko negotiated that gas deal with Putin that saw the Russians sell gas directly to the Ukrainian state. both Victors turned on Tymmochenko after that and both ended up with American advisors, even the pro Russian one (Yanokovich.)

The guy they refer to as the one they want "Yats" is Arseniy Yatsenyuk. He was PM for two years afterward.

2013? Almost 10 years ago.

 

[B4Bear]

2013? Almost 10 years ago.

They are working up to justifying attacking Germany.

 

[ferball]

None of that gives Russia the right to commit mass murder.

Its not about rights.

Nothing gives anyone the right to commit mass murder.

I've probably said in this thread, pre invasion, ages ago that Russia under Putin is like a combination of State backed Mafia and state backed energy concern. On what planet are they gonna behave like decent people? Not this one. Powers like China, the US and Russia don't give a * about peoples rights. They try to do what they want cos no one is able to stop them.

You can whinge all you like about it but the West, especially the English speaking, NATO leading West is morally bankrupt on this. Who are we criticising anyone else's mass murder?

"Oh now .... this invasion is bad

.... cos we didn't do it."

Julian Assange, good North man, had his life ruined because he exposed the US committing mass murder. Why is there such selective outrage here about Putin?