Opinion The road ahead

[theta]

EVERYONE TAKE A DEEP BREATH.

As poor as today's performance against North was, we were only 3 goals down with 16mins on the clock in the 4th qtr. This is when we began to take more risks and the floodgates opened, hence the 43 point final margin.

If we stand back and look at the team, we only need a few of the following players to return to their NORMAL FORM and we will begin to see the team we know so well. If this happens I think we would see a 6 goal turn-around in similar games, seeing us instead up by 3 goals in the last quarter.
(I'm assuming the changes to the game plan are sound, and we don't continue to get washed out, and we receive league average coaching quality - just so we're all on the same page)

Currently out of form (just to name a few)-
Jack, McVeigh, Okeefe, Malceski, Shaw, Hannebury, Titch (even Kennedy isnt playing 100% imo)

And returning from injury -
Goodes, Reid, Tippett.

If only 5 of these 10 return to their NORMAL AVERAGE FORM, the team will lift SIGNIFICANTLY!

There is also the possibility of improvement from
Jetta, Rohan and Cunningham amongst others, let alone the chance of one of the kids giving the team a boost.

And who knows what buddy will do then : )

Another good possibility is the return to form for our backline. If they start to sync, we will cede 2-3 less goals per game, (1-2 in wet weather, haha).

AND another good possibility is our forward line begin to click. Who knows how many extra goals this will provide.

These arent fairytale, low-probability scenarios. There is a very good chance a couple of these will occur.



All that said, assuming we have some return to form, we are going to have to wait a while to see a decent Win/Loss ratio. It is very likely we will be 3-7 by the time we play the Suns in round 12. The question might end up being "Can they endure the losses and stay strong mentally"?

The upcoming games are -
(UPPER CASE = OPPOSITION HOMEGAME, RED = Good Chance of Loss)
Freo, MELB, BRISBANE, Hawks, ESSENDON, (bye), Geelong, SUNS, Port, TIGERS, gws, WCE, Carl, HAWKS, Essendon, PORT, Saints, BULLDOGS, Tigers

Winning/Losing these will give us 11/11 and put us on the edge of the finals.

Many of you will think we cant win several of the above games, and granted, I'm assuming we will have a somewhat return to form, but nothing major.

I'm also assuming Tippett and/or Goodes will make a difference.

While these are assumptions, I dont think they are too outlandish. History (the last 15 years or so) suggests winning these would put us 3 games clear of 2009 when we won 8 (which triggered our rebuild).

If we can somehow etch out another win or two in the back end of the season against Essendon at the SCG or Port away, this will put us on the edge of 5th or 6th fighting for a home final.



Despite how badly we have played, I say it again, we only need a handful of players to lift, and we will see significant on-field results.

And remember, 2005 and 2006 saw 2-4 and 1-3 starts.

Whatever happens, we currently have the oldest team in the league, so this is probably our final shot at a decent finals campaign before GWS and GC begin to dominate in 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019.

Mark my words, Sydney will lift dramatically.

 

[melbournehammer]

You are having a laff

 

[theta]

You are having a laff

Where do you think Sydney will finish?

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

Where do you think Sydney will finish?

Love your positivity mate but it looks like we have done nothing to address the issues we were facing towards the end of 2013.

Personally i think we will finish 8-10.

 

[RW]

As bad as we were today, given the players we have in the team we are probably still capable of improving enough to maybe grab a home final.

However, I think that is the best we can hope for this year. There is a pretty big gap between us and Geelong/Hawthorn at the moment. While I know we have come back from 1-3 starts before (did it in 2003 as well as 2006), the trend in recent seasons has seen teams needing a higher number of wins to guarantee a top 4 spot. I don't think we will be bridging that gap.

I have just changed the thread title so that it matches the content of your post, which is really looking forward to the next few rounds.

 

[S120]

You are having a laff

When the whistle blows!

 

[Number37]

If we can get beaten by GWS and smashed by North, EVERY game is a chance of a loss. Can't possibly see us winning a game in the near future there are far too many things that need to change.

 

[theta]

I have just changed the thread title so that it matches the content of your post, which is really looking forward to the next few rounds.

Cheers, better title.

 

[theta]

Love your positivity mate but it looks like we have done nothing to address the issues we were facing towards the end of 2013.

Personally i think we will finish 8-10.

Fair enough.

You dont think 2013 was severely effected by injuries? That Kennedy interview that said the midfield was shot by the port game (round 13) spoke volumes imo. If the backline can get it together I think they can build from there and salvage a good part of the season.

 

[melbournehammer]

Your post is, as I have said elsewhere, seeing the glass half full.

A better view would be to look at the changes from last year. You mentioned the injuries - but nothing has changed. Goodies is still injured. Tippett is injured. Pyke and derrickx are worse than Mumford and Pyke. Aj is still injured. Rohan is 12 months behind in his development and is a minor improvement on 2013 Rohan. Mitchell in 2014 is not the player that rok was yet. Rampe is not a patch on mattner.

Lrt may not be injured but I still subscribe to the view that white was a better forward but lrt gives more options. Reid is injured again.

We lost the aura of invincibility in the tail end of last season. No one is the least bit afraid of us.

I thought before the season we could finish 3-8. I now think it likely that 7-12 is the best we can manage.

I haven't seen the last two games but the eagles pre season game showed a side that was weeks behind schedule and playing football that was horribly similar to the long bomb, unstructured forward line, 15 men behind the ball that gets us beat time and time again by the better sides in the comp.

You are relying for your theory on the fact that there is much improvement available to horse. The half empty says he has only one style and the players are doing everything they can but it can't work.

I haven't watched any footy for two weeks (did I mention the Hiroshima carp are going great) but everything I had seen up to then was the same. An inability to hit a target, an inability to break from contests, an inability to use franklin, a second string ruck being made to look like it, an absence of any run from behind the ball.

We have gone 1-1 in my absence against the depleted crows who most of the good teams will beat and north who most of the better teams will beat.

Everything has to go right for your theory to work. I think it more likely we will drop some of the games unexpectedly.

 

[theta]

Your post is, as I have said elsewhere, seeing the glass half full.

A better view would be to look at the changes from last year. You mentioned the injuries - but nothing has changed. Goodies is still injured. Tippett is injured. Pyke and derrickx are worse than Mumford and Pyke. Aj is still injured. Rohan is 12 months behind in his development and is a minor improvement on 2013 Rohan. Mitchell in 2014 is not the player that rok was yet. Rampe is not a patch on mattner.

Lrt may not be injured but I still subscribe to the view that white was a better forward but lrt gives more options. Reid is injured again.

We lost the aura of invincibility in the tail end of last season. No one is the least bit afraid of us.

I thought before the season we could finish 3-8. I now think it likely that 7-12 is the best we can manage.

I haven't seen the last two games but the eagles pre season game showed a side that was weeks behind schedule and playing football that was horribly similar to the long bomb, unstructured forward line, 15 men behind the ball that gets us beat time and time again by the better sides in the comp.

You are relying for your theory on the fact that there is much improvement available to horse. The half empty says he has only one style and the players are doing everything they can but it can't work.

I haven't watched any footy for two weeks (did I mention the Hiroshima carp are going great) but everything I had seen up to then was the same. An inability to hit a target, an inability to break from contests, an inability to use franklin, a second string ruck being made to look like it, an absence of any run from behind the ball.

We have gone 1-1 in my absence against the depleted crows who most of the good teams will beat and north who most of the better teams will beat.

Everything has to go right for your theory to work. I think it more likely we will drop some of the games unexpectedly.

Great post. One of the best assessments of the 2014 team I have read so far.

I agree with almost all of that.

Regarding last years injuries, the team didnt begin to fall apart until the Port game in round 13. From then until the finals we had Tippett. While this does not address the team's problems, it does provide significant forward strength which we have not had in 2014. Following the port game we had a w/l ratio of 8/5, with a VERY tired team, and the losses coming from Pies, Cats, Hawks, Hawks, Freo. Nothing to be ashamed of there imo.

The reasons I still have slightly more optimism are the following reasons.
(they arent all great reasons, but history says I should give the team the benefit of the doubt until they are proven wrong)

1. Traditionally slow starts to seasons. (I dont know why, but Sydney are renowned for this)
2. Poor form. (For whatever reason, too many players are performing below their normal levels. This never lasts)
3. Poor skills in wet. (2 torrential downpours and 1 cow paddock. Sydney have ALWAYS had crap skill in the wet. This has hindered our transition back into form.)
4. Collingwood Round 2 (I dont know why, but we dont match up well against them. This also hindered our road back to form)
5. Adapting to changes in game plan. (I dont like the changes. I want to go back to backline strength, numbers around the ball, a moderate amount of stoppages)
6. A few weird coaching decisions. (Sydney should be able to correct this. It will be very disappointing and out of character if they cannot)
7. Upsets occur in Round 1. (Horse underestimated GWS imo. Team psyche took a hit)

...and finally, a weird one, but possible...

8. Some players may be a little intimidated/star-struck by Franklin. (I know this sounds stupid but I think there is a possibility a few players are trying a little too hard around him. Then when they stuff up, they let the error weigh on them, resulting in bad psychology)

These sound like excuses, but I think there is a very real possibility a few of these are accurate. As disappointing as they have been, it is hard to believe they have fallen so far so quickly. In my mind there have to be reasons for the form slump. These are what I can come up with. Im sincerely not trying to make excuses, just trying to find the 'why' behind the un-sydney-like performances.

Once we see a few more games in dry conditions we will see to what extent form picks up, and whether any of these are accurate should become clear.

Unfortunately 4 of the next 6 are against tough competition, so we dont have time to find form. Coming back from 3-7 at the Suns game will be a monumental effort, so it might be essential to pick up an extra game against either Freo, Hawthorn, Essendon or Geelong before then.

As far as I'm concerned, it is now or never for 2014 if we want a home final, and its not looking good.


NOTE: TIL about the Hiroshima Carp.

 

[swansfan51]

Voted yes on the basis that it is a home final from 6th. Anyone suggesting a home final from 1st or 2nd needs therapy

 

[theta]

Voted yes on the basis that it is a home final from 6th. Anyone suggesting a home final from 1st or 2nd needs therapy

Ahh, I should have been more clear. Yes Im referring to a home final from 5th or 6th. Top 4 is gone.

 

[Very Thirsty]

Does everyone recall who won the flag in 2005. Of course you do. Well, let's say we win one and lose another of our next two games, not unreasonable. That would have us 2 and 4 after 6 rounds. In 2005 after round 6 we were 2 and 4, in twelfth place with 86.2%. Sounds good to me.

 

[theta]

A post of mine from another thread I thought belongs in here.

As I have repeated many times over, I am not making excuses. I am trying to discuss the POSSIBLE REASONS WHY our team has fallen so far so quickly.

That is all.

Here are the POSSIBLE EXPLANATIONS I have come up with. I am not saying they all apply and are all right. These are just a range of possibilities that may have contributed to their poor start.
(Something some people dont seem to take kindly to around here, haha)

1. Traditionally slow starts to seasons.
I dont know why, but Sydney are renowned for this

2. Upsets occur in Round 1.
Most teams start with poor form after no footy for 6 months. Horse underestimated GWS imo, and the team psyche took a hit. Maybe this triggered a loss of confidence?

3. Poor form.
For whatever reason, too many players are performing below their normal levels. To name a few, Jack, McVeigh, Okeefe, Malceski, Shaw, Hannebury, Titch are all down on form (even Kennedy isnt playing 100% imo). In recent memory I dont remember this lasting (On second tought in 2009 it did and it triggered the BIG rebuild. 2013 doesnt count imo because it was the worst year of injuries in a decade, with Shaw, Mattner, AJ, Goodes, Jetta & LRT out for most of the season, so not poor form. Also many think there was a change to the game plan which takes time to adapt to)
IMO, if just half of the played listed return to average form (very possible) I think we will see significant improvement.

4. Poor skills in wet.
Pure bad luck has given Sydney the worst playing conditions of all the teams in 2014 so far - 2 torrential downpours and 1 dewy cow paddock against Collingwood (who we led at 3 qtr time). Sydney have ALWAYS had crap skills in the wet. Generally speaking it is very difficult for any team to return to form in the wet. This has hindered our transition back into form from the pre-season.

5. Collingwood Round 2
I dont know why, but we dont match up well against them. We have the worst w/l record of any team in the AFL against them in the last decade. This has also hindered our road back to form.

6. Adapting to changes in game plan.
Many people think when Tippett entered in Round 13 2013 we began to bomb it long more. Personally, if this is correct, I would prefer to see us go back to backline strength first, numbers around the ball, and a moderate amount of stoppages. This was a critical component to why we were previously great in the wet!

7. More than a few weird coaching decisions.
Under estimated GWS, Spare 7th defender in 2 games, too many talls in the wet included a low-skilled Dericx, Grundy and Kennedy in forward line in 3rd quarter against North, there are too many, seriously WTF? Sydney should be able to correct this though. It would be out of character if they don't.

8. Too Old.
We are now the oldest team in the league. Some slide in overall team efficiency is quite possible, but not to this extend imo.

9. A popular one is that the Franklin deal/personality has derailed the team. I think this is unlikely and a low possibility.

...and finally, a weird(er) one, but possible...

10. Some players may be a little intimidated/star-struck by Franklin. (I know this sounds stupid but I think there is a possibility a few players are trying a little too hard around him. Then when they stuff up, they let the error weigh on them, resulting in bad psychology and lack of focus on game)


THESE ARE JUST SPECULATIONS ON WHY THEIR PERFORMANCES HAVE BEEN SO POOR. (I am not yelling, just emphasising the points : )

I AM NOT MAKING EXCUSES.

I AM NOT TRYING TO FORCE AN OPINION DOWN ANYONES THROAT.

I AM NOT SPEAKING LIKE THEY ARE GOSPEL.

I DO NOT HAVE ANY MORE INFORMATION THEN MOST PEOPLE.

THESE ARE GUESSES AT WHAT HAS GONE WRONG based on history, weather, form, stats, and coaching! That is all.

If you think these reasons are rubbish, that is ok, I couldnt care less. Either ignore my posts, or ask me to clarify or elaborate on the points, or give us a better explanation on why you think we are playing so badly. Personally I would prefer to hear what you have to say (as long as its not just mindless drivel and abuse about how shit we are playing - that doesnt take the conversation anywhere interesting, nor is it helpful in understanding why)

And finally, my main point is - wait until we play 4-5 games in good conditions. If they can find some form then we have a better data sample to judge them on. Personally I prefer this over IF we are still crap, then all the abuse and negativity has some legitimacy, and I will join the chorus in a collective winter of discontent.

= )

Since the 2012 GF we have beaten no one of note. That is the fact of the matter in all weather conditions.​

Again, 2013 was our worst year of injuries in a decade, with Shaw, Mattner, AJ, Goodes, Jetta & LRT out for most of the season. Kennedy's end of year inteview said the midfield was exhausted half was though the season due to covering the depleted defence. Arguably, there was a change to the game plan, and we started to bomb it long to Tippett. Following that round 13 loss to Port we won 8, lost 5. Losses were to Collingwood, Geelong, Hawthorn, Hawthorn, Freo. Given the injuries, an exhausted midfield, and a bomb-it-long plan that did not work, I dont think we can complain. We made it to a prelim. Thats something we should be proud of imo.

I refuse to believe that somehow we are highly skilled side that is just darn unlucky we have run into some wet weather. We were an uncompromising physical team that kept coming at you.​

I never said at any stage we are a highly skilled side. The weather is always luck/chance, nothing we can do about it.

We now kick the thing long and hope some poor **** beats the 2 guys kicking the crap out him and hope it all works out ok.​

I know. I hate it too. This suggests a game plan change and poor coaching decisions (6&7 above). I think it is a combination of this, poor form (3), and bad luck with the weather(4), all of which have hindered a return to the footy we know they can play.

Just so we're straight, I dont mean to come across arrogant or angry if I have, its just my writing style. Im actually being quite sincere and want to know what you and others think (minus the abuse, its not for me)


peace

= P

 

[RW]

A post of mine from another thread I thought belongs in here.

That is all fine but bear in mind that long winded replies in response to certain topics may not be very conducive to discussion and sharing of ideas.

 

[theta]

That is all fine but bear in mind that long winded replies in response to certain topics may not be very conducive to discussion and sharing of ideas.

Yes you may be right. I'll try to keep them shorter. I have received a few likes though, cant be all bad ; )

Why do you think the Swans have started so poorly? It would be good to hear what you think is behind their poor start.

Where do you think they will finish? 7th? 8th?

 

[theta]

Essendon loss to saints help our top 4 aspirations.

 

[Sydney Bloods]

even with our win this arvo and how good we played (warning i was and still am heavily intoxicated so maybe its not as great as I remember for instance according to pie girl "jetta didn't run 48 metres to kick that goal you idiot") I still cant say this form will continue right now where fluctuating on form and our last qtr fade outs are still a worry, freo were coming home in the end quite strong but time and a greatest were against them.

for me our remaining game along with how we've been playing I'd have a few more games in red then just those. Fact is we cant count the crows win as an indication of form they are rat shit spoon fighters and we played fairly shitly in the first half against them. but this Mmm it's like smelling perfume on a packed train instead of man sweat. The problem is trains more often then not smell like sweat.

 

[theta]

You are having a laff

You should top-up that glass a little.

 

[DeadlyAkkuret]

Melbourne
Brisbane
Hawthorn
Essendon
Geelong
Gold Coast

To set ourselves up for the 2nd half of the year we really need to aim to be 7-4 after the half way mark. We can only afford one loss in the next 6 rounds if we want to achieve that.

Must wins are Melbourne, Brisbane, Essendon and the Suns, with an upset over Hawks or Cats to reach that goal.

6-5 wouldn't be top 4 over but it'll be very tough from there.

 

[The King!]

You should top-up that glass a little.

Was one win

What made the win good was the stark contrast to the shite we dished up the rest of the year

 

[theta]

Was one win

What made the win good was the stark contrast to the shite we dished up the rest of the year

One win against a top four side, but I said 'a little' despite this.

Lots of things made the win 'good'.

 

[Count Dooku]

Ahh, I should have been more clear. Yes Im referring to a home final from 5th or 6th. Top 4 is gone.

Top 4 is not gone. This is very even season with many surprises to come. I remain very bullish about our flag chances in 2014. Once our forward line of Franklin, Tippett, Reid, Goodes, Rohan and Jetta is fit and firing we will be unstoppable.

 

[The King!]

One win against a top four side, but I said 'a little' despite this.

Lots of things made the win 'good'.

Freo arent technically top 4.

But hard not to think we win the next 2 and face a big test on a roll

Win the next three and i will be walking on sunshine