The run home

[Benevolent Ert]

Brisbane, Collingwood, Hawthorn

Win all three and top 4 is just about guaranteed
Drop one and top 4 is still a chance, but 5th or 6th more likely
Drop two, and we probably still hang on to 7th or 8th spot
Drop all 3 and the year is over at Round 22

If we win all 3 games we're a big shot at 2nd - or at worst 3rd

Here are the key games in the run home:
Rd 20:
West Coast v Richmond - a Richmond win would be fantastic, but I'm not holding my breath
Hawthorn vs Port - one of them has to lose - a bonus for us, probably doesn't matter which one
Kangaroos vs Geelong - Here's hoping the Cats keep the streak intact

Rd 21:
St Kilda vs West Coast - Saints would be the best result, but that could hurt us if we don't keep winning ourselves
Carlton vs Kangaroos - Same deal as WC/Richmond, a Blues win would be handy, but it probably won't happen
Bulldogs vs Hawthorn - same deal as the St K/WC game, Doggies win would be handy
Geelong vs Port - Go Cats

Rd 22:
West Coast vs Essendon - Lets see Sheeds go out in style, waving the jacket
Port vs Freo - Dockers win the best result here
Bulldogs vs Kangaroos - Doggies the best result here

If all these results went this way, we could drop 2 of the last 3 and still finish top 4

But I'd prefer us to do the job ourselves by winning
Win all 3 and we are guaranteed to finish above Hawthorn, and likely to overtake Port and the Roos as well. West Coast are a reasonable chance to win all three though, and if they do that we can't catch them

lose any games and the possibility that Collingwood could leapfrog us - so that's a chance we dont want to take

Here's my tips:
Rd 20
Eagles to beat Richmond
Hawthorn to beat Port
Geelong to beat the Roos

If we beat Brisbane we leapfrog Port and the Roos and will sit 4th

Rd 21
West Coast to beat Saints
Roos to beat Carlton
Hawthorn to beat the Doggies
Geelong to beat Port

If by this stage we've beaten Brisbane and Collingwood, we still sit 4th with the Roos the only team behind us that can catch us

Rd 22
West Coast to beat Essendon
Port to beat Freo
Roos to beat Doggies

now we just need to beat Hawthorn to pinch 3rd spot off them, and that would mean - you guessed it - a first round trip to Subiaco to play the Eagles! Well it hasn't hurt us too much the last two years!

But winning all 3 games is the key. Drop one, and either of the Roos or Collingwood (or possibly both!) look like grabbing the top 4 spot

 

[robbieando]

Brisbane, Collingwood, Hawthorn

Win all three and top 4 is just about guaranteed
Drop one and top 4 is still a chance, but 5th or 6th more likely
Drop two, and we probably still hang on to 7th or 8th spot
Drop all 3 and the year is over at Round 22

If we win all 3 games we're a big shot at 2nd - or at worst 3rd

Here are the key games in the run home:
Rd 20:
West Coast v Richmond - a Richmond win would be fantastic, but I'm not holding my breath
Hawthorn vs Port - one of them has to lose - a bonus for us, probably doesn't matter which one
Kangaroos vs Geelong - Here's hoping the Cats keep the streak intact

Rd 21:
St Kilda vs West Coast - Saints would be the best result, but that could hurt us if we don't keep winning ourselves
Carlton vs Kangaroos - Same deal as WC/Richmond, a Blues win would be handy, but it probably won't happen
Bulldogs vs Hawthorn - same deal as the St K/WC game, Doggies win would be handy
Geelong vs Port - Go Cats

Rd 22:
West Coast vs Essendon - Lets see Sheeds go out in style, waving the jacket
Port vs Freo - Dockers win the best result here
Bulldogs vs Kangaroos - Doggies the best result here

If all these results went this way, we could drop 2 of the last 3 and still finish top 4

But I'd prefer us to do the job ourselves by winning
Win all 3 and we are guaranteed to finish above Hawthorn, and likely to overtake Port and the Roos as well. West Coast are a reasonable chance to win all three though, and if they do that we can't catch them

lose any games and the possibility that Collingwood could leapfrog us - so that's a chance we dont want to take

Here's my tips:
Rd 20
Eagles to beat Richmond
Hawthorn to beat Port
Geelong to beat the Roos

If we beat Brisbane we leapfrog Port and the Roos and will sit 4th

Rd 21
West Coast to beat Saints
Roos to beat Carlton
Hawthorn to beat the Doggies
Geelong to beat Port

If by this stage we've beaten Brisbane and Collingwood, we still sit 4th with the Roos the only team behind us that can catch us

Rd 22
West Coast to beat Essendon
Port to beat Freo
Roos to beat Doggies

now we just need to beat Hawthorn to pinch 3rd spot off them, and that would mean - you guessed it - a first round trip to Subiaco to play the Eagles! Well it hasn't hurt us too much the last two years!

But winning all 3 games is the key. Drop one, and either of the Roos or Collingwood (or possibly both!) look like grabbing the top 4 spot

The key for us and a Top 2 spot is next weekend (Geelong vs North and Hawthorn vs Port). If we win our last 3 games all we need therefore is Geelong and Hawthorn to win next weekend so we can overtake North and Port, then we overtake Hawthorn in round 22 by beating them. Then all we can hope for is St Kilda and Essendon doing us a favour in the last two rounds (can't say both club won't have something to play for, St Kilda playing for their season and Essendon to farewell their coach) so we can leap over West Coast, if the Eagles drop a match.

We just need the teams ranked 2nd to 5th to drop one match and for us to win every game and let our percentage do the rest.

 

[s2 Swans Dragons]

Ive been doing all these calculations too, hopefully they all fall our way..

 

[CAS79]

Ive been doing all these calculations too, hopefully they all fall our way..

just being doing the ladder predictor thing. Thanks to our high percentage if we win one more we are a good chance (though far from guaranteed) of making the eight.

All 3 games at the moment are go either way but I think we will be sitting about 5-6 come September... than we have to see if we can do it the hard way.

 

[Bloods boy from the Bush]

I did a biased Ladder Predictor the other day and it has us finishing 2nd but its more likley to be 3rd if we win all 3 games given the Eagles will most likely not lose any.

Our most likely result is to win only 2 and prob finish 4th or 5th which still gives us a reasonable chance to have a tilt at a Premiership.

 

[bingle]

well researched !!!

funnily enough i've got eagles and swans at subi as well.
cats v hawks at 'g' in other qual

 

[GGOOAALL]

YAY! thanks for that Benevolent Ert.

saves me from doing it myself =)

 

[No1SwansFan]

My big fear is the Brisbane game. But did i perhaps see something on the television an incident invlolving Brown that may have been suspendable. Not sure and could have been my imagination will have to wait a day or so i guess. With out Brown I think i would be feeling a little better about that game.

 

[natlovestheswans]

The next 3 weeks are gonna be very tough, i will sick even thinking about Brisbane. My main concern is if we drop a game and we finish 5th, Adelaide finishes 8th. That would be a major disaster. The key is to keep winning!!

 

[GGOOAALL]

"However, Brisbane could be without their best player at the Gabba on Saturday night. Power forward Jonathan Brown is likely to come under the match review panel's spotlight for sparking a wild halftime melee in the Lions' 24-point loss to Hawthorn."

 

[natlovestheswans]

"However, Brisbane could be without their best player at the Gabba on Saturday night. Power forward Jonathan Brown is likely to come under the match review panel's spotlight for sparking a wild halftime melee in the Lions' 24-point loss to Hawthorn."

Did anyone see it? Was it worth a week?

 

[natlovestheswans]

http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22232883-5006065,00.html

Sounds pretty lame.

 

[No1SwansFan]

Did anyone see it? Was it worth a week?

got it wrong sorry. Seems like it will just be a fine most likely.

 

[No1SwansFan]

http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22232883-5006065,00.html

Sounds pretty lame.

Yup!!! Just sad that it happened so close to a group of kids.

 

[Bloods boy from the Bush]

The next 3 weeks are gonna be very tough, i will sick even thinking about Brisbane. My main concern is if we drop a game and we finish 5th, Adelaide finishes 8th. That would be a major disaster. The key is to keep winning!!

I agree the only team I would not be confident against in that situation would be the Crows. However I think we can win all of our game and make the top 4 and I think Adelaide will get in prob 7 or 8.

 

[Tuco]

I'm seeing us finish 3rd or 4th on percentage if we beat Bris this week. It's all for nothing if we cough up the game to the Lions. But I'm glad the boys are clearly up for scrap in this last few weeks based on what I saw on Sat night. I read that StKilda only managed 4 contested marks for the entire game on Sat.

No Leo or LRT for the Brissie roadtrip. We know Bolts will be up for the Brown matchup. So it'll be interesting to see how much pressure the other Brisbane forwards can put on us.

 

[natlovestheswans]

I'm seeing us finish 3rd or 4th on percentage if we beat Bris this week. It's all for nothing if we cough up the game to the Lions. But I'm glad the boys are clearly up for scrap in this last few weeks based on what I saw on Sat night. I read that StKilda only managed 4 contested marks for the entire game on Sat.

No Leo or LRT for the Brissie roadtrip. We know Bolts will be up for the Brown matchup. So it'll be interesting to see how much pressure the other Brisbane forwards can put on us.

Did you read this somewhere, or just a guess? I really hope Leo is back!

Edit: Ah, just searched google news and found something about Leo.

http://www.realfooty.com.au/news/news/sydneys-bolton-wonder/2007/08/12/1186857346795.html

Roos admitted Barry, who was a late withdrawal on Saturday because his hamstring injury flared up after Thursday's training session, was no certainty to play in Brisbane on Saturday. "He'll be touch and go - I'd say he'll be 50-50," Roos said. "We don't want him to redo it and miss three or four weeks. We'll have to take it a little more carefully now."

 

[Barwick17]

You'll get revenge on our boys anyway!

 

[matthew_357]

how massive is brisbane game gonna be. i would call it toughest of all final 3 games, as they are hitting good form, and collingwood in melb wont be a super struggle if we play well, and hawthorn in sydney the same. but brisbane at the gabba is going to be huge in context of season. good thing is that if we lose, worst we can be is 7th, which puts us back to hoping for a top 8 position at best. but i think we can win, the st kilda win does wonders for confidence, as the last couple wins were against shocking teams. if our forwards play well, i think we will win, i think that brown will kick a bag either way, plus there other goals chipped in here and there, so it all rests on how many goals we score.

if we win all 3 then i pretty much have no doubt in my mind we will finish 2nd or 3rd, and either way im guessing we'll play west coast, its just a matter of where.

whats the deal with channel 10 not showing a swans sat nite game again this week? good thing ive got foxtel but still, dont mind 10's coverage. i dont know why they would show melb w.b soo im guessing it was already scheduled ages before? i dont know.

anyway, back to what i was saying, biggest game of year this week against brisbane, lets hope our boys get a win, asd if we win this one i reckon we'll win the next 2.

 

[snappy]

Im very confident, i havent checked the odds, but i wouldnt be suprised if we were going in as favourites.. I think last week was the hardest of the final games of the month. Next would be Hawthorn based on current form..
Its hard not to pencil in winning at least 2 of the 3 games.

 

[liz]

whats the deal with channel 10 not showing a swans sat nite game again this week? good thing ive got foxtel but still, dont mind 10's coverage. i dont know why they would show melb w.b soo im guessing it was already scheduled ages before? i dont know.

I think that under the current arrangement, Fox and C7 / C10 get to alternately chose which matches they show, unlike the old arrangements where the FTA channel had first choice and Fox took whatever is left over. Hard to know who picked and which they picked, especially as they have to do it ahead of time.

In Sydney (and Brisbane) C10 will be showing the Swans Lions game at the same time as it is on on Fox. Bad luck for any Sydney based fans of the other teams who are playing that night.

 

[GGOOAALL]

"However, Brisbane could be without their best player at the Gabba on Saturday night. Power forward Jonathan Brown is likely to come under the match review panel's spotlight for sparking a wild halftime melee in the Lions' 24-point loss to Hawthorn."

"The half-time scrimmage in the Hawthorn-Brisbane match was ruled not to have constituted a melee."

 

[GGOOAALL]

Im very confident, i havent checked the odds, but i wouldnt be suprised if we were going in as favourites.. I think last week was the hardest of the final games of the month. Next would be Hawthorn based on current form..
Its hard not to pencil in winning at least 2 of the 3 games.

bris 2.05 syd 1.70
(provided by sports tab)


i dont like it wen we go in as favourites. we seem to lose games we "should" win. anyways, swans by 15pts! =)

 

[Jizza9]

Heres a pretty good article about the run home by Rohan Connolly
http://www.realfooty.com.au/news/ne...1186857426998.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
And his possible ladder....

 

[natlovestheswans]

I think i would die if we had to play Eagles in the first week of finals at Subi for the 3rd time. I feel sick even thinking about it!