Autopsy The Stats Don’t Lie: VicBIAS By The Numbers - An Empirical Analysis

[Rory Walkerfield]

This gentleman has broken down umpire bias in terms of home and away teams, in particular looking at the difference between Vic teams v non Vic teams both at home and away.

The stats speak for themselves.

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Have posted a poll to get views, but in the interest of being true to the analysis have framed the poll on a similar basis.

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[1990crow]

Was unfair umpiring an outcome of the 2007 AFL investigation into non Victorian flags?
For 2024 until 2040 should the AFL reverse their direction to umpires and make it unfair to Victorian sides?

 

[Danw0w]

Where's our vic bias then?

 

[1990crow]

Where's our vic bias then?

2017 grand final. Cotchin not getting suspended for big hit to Shiels head in the 2017 preliminary final.

 

[Danw0w]

2017 grand final. Cotchin not getting suspended for big hit to Shiels head in the 2017 preliminary final.

Tom McCartin got some of that vic bias at Sydney then

 

[nickrebellious]

Don't need empirical analysis when you've watched the 2016 grand final.

 

[mick500]

Have posted a poll to get views, but in the interest of being true to the analysis have framed the poll on a similar basis.

Note your vote will be able to be seen publicly.

And Derwayne Russell has the nerve to go on about "The noise of affirmation" any time he calls a game in Adelaide, yet never mentions it when interstate sides play in Melbourne.

Good luck winning a final as an interstate side.

 

[Danw0w]

And Derwayne Russell has the nerve to go on about "The noise of affirmation" any time he calls a game in Adelaide, yet never mentions it when interstate sides play in Melbourne.

Good luck winning a final as an interstate side.

West Coast did it. No excuses.

 

[Aristotle Pickett]

The stats prove nothing because it doesn't contain incorrect umpiring decisions.

 

[Rory Walkerfield]

The stats prove nothing because it doesn't contain incorrect umpiring decisions.

My observation from watching AFL since the Crows joined the comp is that for a non Vic team playing against a Vic team in Vic, the issue with the umpiring isn’t so much the frees that get paid to the home Vic side, but the frees that don’t get paid that should have to the non-Vic side.

there is minimal consistency favouring the home Vic side.

I would argue the incorrect decisions you are referring to would predominantly fall into this category, thereby effectively being embedded in the analysis presented.

here is a classic exception though, absolute beauty of a decision:

Is this the worst ‘in the back’ call ever?

Umpires in the spotlight again after awarding controversial free to Hawthorn.

thewest.com.au

 

[Aristotle Pickett]

My observation from watching AFL since the Crows joined the comp is that for a non Vic team playing against a Vic team in Vic, the issue with the umpiring isn’t so much the frees that get paid to the home Vic side, but the frees that don’t get paid that should have to the non-Vic side.

there is minimal consistency favouring the home Vic side.

I would argue the incorrect decisions you are referring to would predominantly fall into this category, thereby effectively being embedded in the analysis presented.

here is a classic exception though, absolute beauty of a decision:

Is this the worst ‘in the back’ call ever?

Umpires in the spotlight again after awarding controversial free to Hawthorn.

thewest.com.au

Until each decision is looked at and information is collated from that, no assumptions can be made.
The perceived bias of home teams may also be due to the home team going in for the ball harder.

 

[Underarm]

This gentleman has broken down umpire bias in terms of home and away teams, in particular looking at the difference between Vic teams v non Vic teams both at home and away.

The stats speak for themselves.

TikTok - Make Your Day

Have posted a poll to get views, but in the interest of being true to the analysis have framed the poll on a similar basis.

Note your vote will be able to be seen publicly.

Statistics can tell you anything if you know how to use them.

56% is such a weirdly arbitrary figure to arrive at.

 

[Underarm]

If Davey Warner could peel himself away from his Cardoons for a couple of hours and type this up somewhere it would be easier to follow...

 

[CrowToon]

I'm about as neutral as you can get when it comes to umpiring so this is just shocking when you see the raw unbiased numbers.

I am shocked.

 

[Cyclops]

I've noticed Crows supporters wail about this more than most (it seems to be a SA culture thing maybe?), highlighting anti-Crow decisions but forgetting pro-Crow ones. We had the same wailing in the Collingwood Crows games this year, the anti-Crow decisions were howled about, but there were worse decisions the other way that didn't get a mention.

OP is right there is a decided home ground advantage, I notice Collingwood gets decisions when we are the home side, and less so away. I don't watch a lot of non-Vic footy (Vic bias, right?) so can't say I've seen it much, but Adelaide are not hard done by in my limited view: Port get less from my impressions.

Some clubs seem to suffer more. Geelong and the Eagles seem to have a hard time earning a free (with exceptions for certain players). Maybe its game style?

It goes the other way too, Sydney have had a noticeable run of "good luck" with umpires (and recruiting, and the tribunal and...) consistently over many decades.

There's a problem with umpiring. Its inconsistent, the league doesn't seem to back umpires up, but they are happy to introduce new rules and new interpretations on a round by round basis.

I think suits at AFL house are on a winner, it's still a fine game, but they get to put on their CV "I changed the "dissent" or the "in the back" rule so I deserve a raise" as they slowly erode the games integrity.

Crowds can influence umpires, no doubt. I have seen Collingwood crowds intimidate umpires with (almost tactical) outrage, to the point they gave us undeserved frees. I've seen umpires turn, too, almost baiting the crowd and refusing to be intimidated to the point they pay decisions the other way.

There's plenty of grey in the rules, and the League definitely makes it worse with irrepsonsible rule changes and tweaks. There are more Vic clubs so maybe there's more Vic bias? Unlikely a Crowds suporter could rationally detect it though, they are an emotional lot and very paranoid.

 

[Checksider]

2012 Prelim against the Hawks was a complete robbery. We played badly in the 2017 Grand Final, but were never given a chance to anyway - The umpiring in that first half was shocking.

Anytime we get anywhere near a flag the umpiring makes sure we have one arm tied behind our back.

 

[cutterman]

Completely flawed! How does he land on 56% as a game of 'large differential' - in that case, say 40 free kicks are given, that is a 22-18 free kick count. Hardly excessive and more likely just variance. More likely that number's been plucked out to make the outcome look good. He calls out a 15-5 free kick count as excessive, that's a 75/25% split.

His percentage for the second column, Home Non-VIC vs Away VIC is wrong, 102 vs 60 is 63%. Therefore his point on it better for a VIC team to be playing interstate than a neutral home game is wrong.

Hardly conclusive.

 

[LoungeLizard]

I would like to know how non-Vic sides are getting so many free kicks?

Lift your game AFL, they won't leave if they get this much favoritism.

 

[Noidnadroj]

This gentleman has broken down umpire bias in terms of home and away teams, in particular looking at the difference between Vic teams v non Vic teams both at home and away.

The stats speak for themselves.

TikTok - Make Your Day

Have posted a poll to get views, but in the interest of being true to the analysis have framed the poll on a similar basis.

Note your vote will be able to be seen publicly.

I can’t be bothered listening to the whole lot, but I do know Richmond has been bottom of the free kick differential ladder from 2017-2023. So if Vic bias exists it’s ‘Vic bias’ minus Richmond.

FWIW, Adelaide v Richmond R5 in 2022 was 33-13 free kicks in Adelaide’s favour. Not a single media person or Crows supporter batted an eyelid.

And aren’t I correct in saying the biggest discrepancy for free kick differential in home games is the Eagles?



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[#gosaintas]

Completely flawed! How does he land on 56% as a game of 'large differential' - in that case, say 40 free kicks are given, that is a 22-18 free kick count. Hardly excessive and more likely just variance. More likely that number's been plucked out to make the outcome look good. He calls out a 15-5 free kick count as excessive, that's a 75/25% split.

His percentage for the second column, Home Non-VIC vs Away VIC is wrong, 102 vs 60 is 63%. Therefore his point on it better for a VIC team to be playing interstate than a neutral home game is wrong.

Hardly conclusive.

Exactly. The clown has his Maths wrong anyway.

 

[PenfoldsFan]

Im still waiting for someone to post up a Vic v non Vic free kick count that shows 1 umpire giving 50% of total free's in a game to a non Vic side as happened to Port v Cats or Crows V Dogs.

And as for Richmond having worst differential, if you transgress 50 times in a game via high fend offs, holding etc. but only get pinged for 25 of them you've actually gotten away with enough to influence the game.
The unpaid free is the hidden stat that influences many results as per Port v Cats 4th qtr recently.

 

[Noidnadroj]

Ok … be careful of ‘stats’ gurus. He’s chosen 56/44 for a very specific reason … because it provides him with the best data to support his proposition. If he chose 58/42 or 60/40 it would be vastly different.

Free kick differential is more relevant. This shows over an entire season which teams get ‘looked’ after by the umpires:

2023 as of R19:

Worst differential:

North : -51
Port: -48
Rich: -43
Adel: -32
Hawks: -31

3 x Vic teams.

Best:

Saints
Carlton
Bris
Coll
Freo

3 x Vic teams.

And if you look at 2023 currently, 4 x non-Vic teams sit in the top-6 for free kicks received: Freo, Adel, Swans, Lions.

So non-Vic teams make up less than half the comp, but take up 66% of top-6 for most free kicks. Hardly the stuff of Vic bias.

Of the bottom 5 for free kicks received, only GWS appear, along with 4 other Vic teams. So 80%
of bottom 5 are Vic teams. Hardly the stuff of Vic bias.

In 2022, the bottom 3 teams for free kick differential were:

North: -39
Saints: -42
Richmond : -69

Now let’s look at 2017-2021 differential :

Adelaide 4th with positive 156
Eagles 5th with positive 145
Lions 6th with positive 63
Port 8th with positive 11
Gold Coast 10th minus 23
Freo 11th minus 36
Sydney 15th minus 126
GWS 17th minus 219

Richmond are last with minus 368.

So over 5-years there’s approx 105 games inc 2020. So we are taking minus 2 for GWS as the worst, and minus 1 free kick or better for every other non-Vic team.

So if you add up all non-Vic teams with frees for and against over a 5-year period it’s almost exact parity for and against. If you add up Vic teams for and against it’s also almost exact parity.

So you can massage the numbers to get the outcome you want any way you like. But when a 5-year period is analysed, and the 8 x non-Vic teams are almost exact the same for and against, and the Vic teams are almost the exact same for and against then guess what?

There’s no bias no matter how hard you look.


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[Noidnadroj]

I'm about as neutral as you can get when it comes to umpiring so this is just shocking when you see the raw unbiased numbers.

I am shocked.

As shocked as you were when Adel v Rich 2022 saw free kicks at 33-13 in a pretty close game?


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[BG32]

Nothing to see here, Vic teams are just better

 

[WilloTree]

Vic bias is what made the Eagles 92 Premiership the most remarkable achievement in the history of the game.

You can't have he sweet without the sour.

But I agree - it's probably time the AFL grew up and leveled the playing field.

Can't see it though. The AFL is run more like a P&C than a professional organisation.