Media The Sweet FA Squiggle - updated with Baseline, Premiers, League Evolution + BOM/CIW/DRA/ESH

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Season 41 Baseline Squiggle

This Season 41 starting point was calculated based on the average PF and PA for each club across S34-40 including finals.

Short-term fluctuations will move teams around the squiggle during the season, but this baseline shows where teams have settled over time. In other words, it aggregates seven full seasons plus finals so it effectively represents each club’s long-term offensive and defensive identity.




Summary
1. Hawks and Old Boys set the Benchmark
Across S34-S40 these two clubs sit closest to the contender quadrant with strong scoring and solid defence. These positions reflect their sustained success across this era with two flags apiece.

2. Demons and Gumbies bring the entertaining chaos
These clubs both score heavily but concede plenty placing them in the classic 'shootout' zone. If their defence tightens they can quickly jump into contender territory.

3. Bears are the dour, defensive outlier
The Bears fit furthest along the defensive side of the chart, to the point where I had to adjust the scale on my graph. The Bears concede very few points but they can also struggle to score.

4. Roys and Wonders sit in the competitive middle
These teams cluster around the league average. Whilst they aren't extreme in either direction, they are also consistently competitive.

5. The Royals are the strugglers of the league
The Royals are the only team to currently sit in the dreaded Rebuild Zone. The only way from here is up

 

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Premiers

• Overall, the league has shifted from being predominantly defensive, to predominantly offensive. However, the S40 Dragons were a balanced team. Could this be the start of another run of more defensive and/or balanced premiers?
• The S38–S39 Hawks sit in the strongest all-round area of the premiership cluster
• The S34 Bombers are the clear outlier, with lower-scoring games driven by a tighter defence than subsequent premiers.
• The S35 and S37 Ophidian Old Boys had contrasting styles. That famous S36 spoon forced a return to the drawing board, and they reaped the reward.
• The S36 Gumbies sit closest to the middle pack, which makes their breakthrough flag in a competitive year especially impressive.

I wondered if those trends were caused by different season lengths. However, analysing the premiers on a per-game basis results in similar overall trends.

Two clear groups of premiers emerged. High-scoring premiers (S37, S38, S39 and S40) all sit in the 100-106 PF/game range. Defence-leaning premiers (S34, S35 and S36) all score 91-93 PF/game but with a stronger defence.

 

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Historical Squiggle with Premiers



Here is the Historical Squiggle with Premiers. Each line tracks a club’s season-by-season position based on Points For (attack) and Points Against (defence), showing how their statistical profile shifts over time.

The stars mark premiership seasons, highlighting where the competition’s champions sat on the squiggle.
While the Premiership styles differ, every champion clearly sits in the upper half of the squiggle where strong scoring and solid defence intersect.

Conversely, bad teams actually cluster much more tightly than the good teams as they almost always share the same traits- low scoring and leaky defence.

The squiggle also shows that most teams move diagonally from bottom left to top right (or vice versa) over time and attack. In other words, attack and defence tend to improve or decline together.

It also suggests that premiership teams are rarely one-season outliers. Most flags come from clubs that spend multiple seasons near the top of the chart, while the biggest movements tend to occur among middle-pack teams pushing toward contention.

 

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League Evolution

One interesting way to view the squiggle is to track not just teams, but the league itself. The chart below plots the average Points For and Points Against across the whole competition each season. In other words, it shows where the centre of the league sat stylistically. Teams move around the squiggle individually but this particular chart shows how the entire league environment shifts over time.



S34- Defensive Era - The league sits in the lower-scoring defensive region of the squiggle..
S35 to S37 - The Attacking Explosion - Scoring rapidly increases and the entire competition shifts upward. By S37 the league reaches its highest attacking peak.
S38–S39 - High-Powered Contenders - The league stabilises at a high-scoring level. This period produces some of the most dominant attacking teams
S40 - Return Toward Balance - The league drifts back toward the centre of the map.

Premiers vs. League by Season


Premiers rarely settle at the league average- they tend to rise above, especially on offense.

• The S34 Bombers dominated with a rock-solid defence in an era built on tough, low-scoring games.
• The S36 Gumbies pulled off a remarkable flag win in a tightly contested, balanced season.
• The S38–S39 Hawks were a scoring powerhouse, leaving the rest of the league trailing.
• The S40 Dragons struck the perfect balance as the league tightened, signalling a bright future for competition.

With the broader league trends established, the next step is to zoom in and see how each club moved across the squiggle during this period.

 

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BAGHDAD BOMBERS


The Bombers’ S34 premiership sits well to the defensive side of the squiggle, reflecting the style of the league at the time. In an era where scoring was lower across the competition, their ability to suppress opposition scoring while maintaining functional offence proved decisive.

As the league became progressively more attacking in later seasons, the Bombers’ subsequent campaigns drifted closer toward the centre of the chart. Rather than remaining an extreme defensive outlier, their later seasons sit much nearer the evolving league average.

Verdict
• S34 sits firmly in the defence-led premiership cluster
• Later seasons shift toward the league midpoint as scoring increases
• The Bombers illustrate how dramatically the competition environment changed after S34

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CONEY ISLAND WARRIORS



The Warriors display one of the widest ranges of movement on the squiggle across the era. Their S34 team was defensive-minded like much of the league at the time. Conversely, their S35 campaign stands out as a major attacking spike, pushing them high on the scoring axis. More recently other seasons have quickly pulled them back toward the middle of the map.

Rather than a steady trajectory upward or downward, the Warriors’ path reflects a team capable of strong attacking bursts. However, they struggle maintain the same balance consistently from season to season.

Verdict
• S35 represents their largest offensive peak
• Several seasons oscillate around the league midpoint
• Their profile reflects high variability rather than sustained trends

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DRAGONS FFC



The Dragons’ trajectory shows a gradual climb from the lower half of the squiggle into the contender region. Early seasons place them firmly in the rebuild quadrant, where both scoring output and defensive performance lagged behind the competition.


Across subsequent seasons both aspects improve, pushing the club steadily upward. By S40 the Dragons arrive squarely inside the modern contender cluster, producing the balanced profile that ultimately delivered the premiership.

Verdict
• Early seasons sit deep in the rebuild zone
• Progressive improvement in both scoring and defence
• Their S40 Flag represents the culmination of a multi-season rise toward balance

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EAST SIDE HAWKS



The Hawks’ premiership run coincided with the most offensively explosive period of the competition. In fact, their S38 and S39 flag seasons sit among the highest scoring outputs ever recorded across the dataset, placing them deep in the upper echelon of the squiggle graph.

Crucially, that attacking power was supported by solid defensive numbers, resulting in the Hawks occupying the sweet spot region one that premiership teams are known for. Their shift towards the centre of the graph in S40 was reflective of broader league trends. They remain a powerhouse of the competition.

Verdict
• S38–S39 represent two of the most attacking seasons of the era
• Both premiership seasons sit firmly in the contender quadrant
• Their success aligns closely with the league’s peak scoring environment

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