top 4 a real possibility...

[Stig O'Hara]

Whispering at the top of my lips,

Come on Pies.

Mods: please delete this at midnight.

 

[blue gunslinger]

u serious - draw?

 

[Stig O'Hara]

u serious - draw?

3 seconds left, Esserederon shot themselves in the foot.

 

[thylacine60]

The draw will be the difference for us finishing 4th or 5th.

Pretty much i see it now that Lions will get 4th and us 5th and we'll get PA in Melb first weeks, and if we win play the loser of Saints v Brisbane, so potentially not a bad result at all.

Of course this all depends on many different outcomes.

Yes please.

 

[BlueBelle]

Collingwood won which means we'll be in 6th spot at the end of the round.

It's definately going to be an interesting run home!

 

[blue gunslinger]

Bugger only 2nd qtr on delay
What the hell

 

[Stig O'Hara]

Bugger only 2nd qtr on delay
What the hell

Mate, if we keep ploughing on, and keep winning, ugly or not,
we will be top 4.

Keep the faith.

 

[BlueBelle]

Mate, if we keep ploughing on, and keep winning, ugly or not,
we will be top 4.

Keep the faith.

That may have been the case had Essendon beaten Brisbane but with them 2 points clear, its highly likely that we'll finish 5th or 6th which is still fantastic!

 

[blue gunslinger]

still need to make the 8
Beat Port
Beat Melb
just to start

 

[bluechampion]

Playing with the old ladder predictor...

I have us winning the next two then playing Adelaide in rnd 22 for 4th spot...

 

[Stig O'Hara]

Nope, we own our destiny.

They are falling like skittles above us.

And we have form.

 

[davis_756]

We have to win our last 3 if we want a top 4 spot, doing so rules out adelaide because we will have beaten them.

Western Bulldogs have:
Brisbane (Gabba)
Geelong
Collingwood

They have 4 points + % on us so they will have to lose 2/3 of these and its highly likely they will lose at least 1 and possibly all 3.

Brisbane have:
Bulldogs
Port Adelaide
Sydney

None of these are easy and they only need to drop 1 which after losing by 50 odd to port a few weeks back is a big chance in that game if they get over the doggies.

Collingwood would need to lose all 3 and with Rich, Syd coming thats no chance.

---------

If we beat port next week and hope brisbane beat the bulldogs we should be 2 points off top 4. Win the next week vs melbourne and hope port beat brisbane as well as geelong beating the dogs and we have 4th spot to lose.

 

[Team Mo']

We need a lot of things to go our way and the Lions as said above need to lose in order for us to crawl in. We must firstly concentrate on winning the games that we can. Don't worry about outside results just play like we did last night...

 

[JuDDysthacaptain]

Doggies have a good record against Brisbane, so if they win that there is Brisbane's loss and we need to rely on Geelong and Collingwood to beat the Dogs. But lets win the games first.

 

[thylacine60]

There was a thread about whether we deserve to be playing finals. I think we do but deserving a double chance I'm not so sure of. Take it but.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Contentious games in red.

Collingwood 52 118.3%

Richmond W
Sydney W
Bulldogs

= 60 points (possible 64)

Bulldogs 48 122.6%

Lions (G)
Geelong
Collingwood

= 48 points (possible 60)

Brisbane 46 107.6%

Bulldogs
Port W - Port don't travel well
Sydney - Swans will be gone but at the SCG Swans are tough.

= 50 points (possible 58)

Carlton 44 110.2%

Port
Melbourne
Adelaide

= 48 points (possible 56)

Adelaide 44 109%

Hawthorn
West Coast W
Carlton

= 48 points (possible 56 points)

Port Adelaide 36 92.4%

Carlton
Lions L
North W

= 40 points (possible 48 points)

Essendon 34 99.3%

St Kilda (depends on Saints outs)
Fremantle W
Hawthorn

= 38 points (possible 46)

Hawthorn and Sydney can mathematically make the 8 but can not touch Carlton without us losing every game and a massive amount of percentage.

A Carlton win or an Essendon loss would have Essendon not being able to touch us.

Port should lose to the Lions, even if they beat us, if we beat Melbourne Port can't touch us.

We are virtually guaranteed of at least 7th position.

To get up one position and earn a home final, we have to pass the Dogs or Lions or Crows.

To pass the Lions
Lions will beat the Power and should beat the Swans. To pass the Lions we need to win all 3 of our games and hope they lose to the Dogs next week. If Brisbane beat the Dogs, we barrack for Port in R21 or Sydney in R22.

To pass the Dogs

We win all 3 and Dogs win 1 (Brisbane ideally)

To pass the Crows

We win all 3 including them. We could lose to them if they lose to Hawks next week and still beat them just on percentage.

Conclusion - who to barrack for

To get up to 5th/6th and home elimination final. Win all 3 and we are certain to get that home final. We can lose one and barrack for:

Hawthorn to beat Adelaide - Round 20; or
Dogs to beat Brisbane - Round 20 AND Sydney to beat Brisbane - Round 22.

To get that 4th spot

Win all 3 and barrack for:

Dogs to beat Brisbane - Round 20.
Geelong to beat Dogs - Round 21.
Collingwood to beat Dogs - Round 22.

The Brisbane draw tonight has stuffed us up really.

 

[Warsaw]

I suppose it's safe for WB to beat Brisbane next week, as long as they lose the next two against Cats, and Pies which is very probable.

Way I see, as long as we win our next 3, then our shot of making the 4 is very promising.

Either way, we finish 4th and play St Kilda, or 5th and play Port Adelaide and I'm a very very happy supertrooper.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Spent all that time doing that and someone summed it up a lot more succinctly while I was doing it. Ah well, the more the merrier.

 

[thylacine60]

ODN, what's the outcome if you run that through a pre-decimal currency model? Same result?

 

[Jimthegreat]

Would've been a help if Essendon had held on. We would've been 5th with only one side above us to "worry" about instead of 2. Reckon we'll still get a top 4 if we win all 3, which we'd have to do. Be nice to into the finals winning 8 from 9.

Anyway, worry about next week first nd if we get over that we can really think about it. Even so, it would be bonus, which is the way I'm looking at it.

Still, a home elimination final would be nice consolation!!!!!!!!

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Oh ummm ... carry the one, divide the remainder .. uh oh .... BANG!! sizzle sizzle sizzle POP! THUD!

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Whatever happens, Brisbane and Carlton are in position to take that fourth spot and carry on the tradition of a bottom 8 club making the top 4 the next year, and Port are in position to carry on the tradition of a bottom 4 club making the 8 the next year. Didn't look possible a few weeks back.

 

[celtic_pride]

Very happy if we finish 5th or 6th which would mean a home final, the odds are stacked against Carlton to finish in the top 4 ...

 

[Stig O'Hara]

Point is, we should take 4 at best.

6 at worst.

Will take that.

 

[davis_756]

There was a thread about whether we deserve to be playing finals. I think we do but deserving a double chance I'm not so sure of. Take it but.

It could be a cruel twist of fate if the cards fall the right way.

Fevola to take the Coleman medal

Judd winning the Brownlow

Carlton sneaking into the top 4 and meeting St Kilda who have finished the season 22-0

Carlton upset the Saints ending a 12 game 8 year losing streak and inflicting St Kilda's 1st loss for the year.

Home final against either collingwood, bulldogs, brisbane, adelaide, port to make the grand final

-------------------

Dreams can come true can't they?