Top 4

[moni]

Do you think will make the top 4?

 

[natlovestheswans]

I hope so. It would seem pretty likely. Of course we need to win our next two games, then we'd need either Melbourne or Fremantle to drop one of their games. Melbourne play Geelong at Skilled this week, whilst Freo play Eagles. Personally i think Eagles will win. Then next week Freo have an easier game againest Port, but Melbourne have Adelaide at AAMI so you'd think they'd lose that.

So yeah, i think we can make it.

 

[Tuco]

Barring a shock loss by the Swans I'd say we're a better than even chance of coming 4th. Freo are fighting a lot of history needing to come up with 9 wins (I think?) in a row to hold us out - especially with the Derby this week. And Melb will be travelling to Adel in the last round.

 

[CharlieG]

Barring a shock loss by the Swans I'd say we're a better than even chance of coming 4th. Freo are fighting a lot of history needing to come up with 9 wins (I think?) in a row to hold us out - especially with the Derby this week. And Melb will be travelling to Adel in the last round.

Freo only need to win two games in a row to keep us out, and both of them are at home.

 

[Tuco]

Freo only need to win two games in a row to keep us out, and both of them are at home.

Yeeeeeeees. And as I said history is against them doing this. They're currently on the longest winning streak in the club's history and play the number one team in the comp and hometown rival with an "AWAY" crowd of 30k plus Eagles fans - who'll be baying for blood after losing to the Dockers earlier this year - this weekend.

I guess I'm saying WC are better than an even chance of beating Freo this round. And thus we too are a better than even chance of making 4th spot.

Even a 51% chance is a better than even chance.

 

[CharlieG]

Yeeeeeeees. And as I said history is against them doing this. They're currently on the longest winning streak in the club's history

This has nothing to do with it.

If you toss an evenly-weighted coin ten times and come up 'tails' ten times, what are the odds of the next coin toss coming up 'tails'? It is the same as all the others - 50%.

and play the number one team in the comp and hometown rival with an "AWAY" crowd of 30k plus Eagles fans - who'll be baying for blood after losing to the Dockers earlier this year - this weekend.

I guess I'm saying WC are better than an even chance of beating Freo this round. And thus we too are a better than even chance of making 4th spot.

Even a 51% chance is a better than even chance.

Now this is an entirely different argument - and why I believe we'll finish higher than Freo.

 

[natlovestheswans]

Freo only need to win two games in a row to keep us out, and both of them are at home.

But Melbourne need to win both of their games aswell to keep us out. I don't think either of the teams will win both of their games and i'm positive that atleast one of the two will lose of their next 2 matches.

 

[robbieando]

Melbourne have won once in Geelong in something like 15 years so they are fighting history this week on that front and Freo have NEVER beaten West Coast in game that was regarded as a West Coast "home" match for the purpose of memberships and the like. So if we win both our matches and history does its thing we "should" finish 3rd and cop a trip to Adelaide in week one of the finals. If not I still think regardless we'll get fourth, because of the fact Melbourne have to go to Adelaide next week to face the Crows.

 

[Tuco]

This has nothing to do with it.

If you toss an evenly-weighted coin ten times and come up 'tails' ten times, what are the odds of the next coin toss coming up 'tails'? It is the same as all the others - 50%.

While this is correct, it simply does not apply here.

You are suggesting that Freo and WC are as evenly matched as two sides of a coin. And that the only determining factor in the win loss record is the mere fact that they turn up and play each other. This is fallacious. We're not dealing with a purely mathematical equation here. There are myriad differences in personel, fitness, mental preparation, injury lists, experience, list development, coaching, funding, sponsorship, home and away records, stability of home life of each individual player etc etc ad infintum.

While I don't fully subscribe to losses being "due" - it is simply a fact that in this competition it is rare for teams to go beyond 6 games without a lapse of some kind. And while most teams will have runs like that, the fact that Freo has failed to do so since joining the League is a small but relevant statistic.

Now this is an entirely different argument - and why I believe we'll finish higher than Freo.

Okay. So why have a dig at me for making a statement you actually agree with?

 

[natlovestheswans]

Not looking so good atm. Freo are looking pretty good and like they could beat the Eagles today.. Adelaide are still playing dodgy so who knows what could happen next week when they play Melb?

Argh, i hate this.

 

[nicky]

Not looking so good atm. Freo are looking pretty good and like they could beat the Eagles today.. Adelaide are still playing dodgy so who knows what could happen next week when they play Melb?

Argh, i hate this.

f****** freo. The chance of a top 4 spot aint looking good at all

 

[is2SWaNz]

oh dear! They defeated WEagles by like 51 points? or was it 57? anyways, the top 4 for the Swans is looking very very slim. This is sooo bad!!! We must win next week, and hope freo AND Melbourne lose, to make it 3rd. Or Melbourne/Freo to drop a game and will just scrape into 4th! this is frustrating!

 

[natlovestheswans]

Adelaide also suffered some bad injuries in their game againest Port. Damn, this really isn't looking good.

PLEASEE either Freo get a little too far ahead of themselves and Port win, or/and Adelaide win. PLEASE! Oh and Sydney win to ofcourse!

 

[is2SWaNz]

Adelaide also suffered some bad injuries in their game againest Port. Damn, this really isn't looking good.

PLEASEE either Freo get a little too far ahead of themselves and Port win, or/and Adelaide win. PLEASE! Oh and Sydney win to ofcourse!

Oh..i thought you were goin to forget about Sydney!

Adelaide isn't playing too well...i'm having doubts about the top 4!

 

[natlovestheswans]

Why couldn't have Melbourne just lost this week!? So god damn close.

 

[Tuco]

Wow. That Freo performance was right off the scale. And with those injuries to Adel i'm gonna have to revise my assessment. We're no longer better than an even chance to make the four, we'd be less than an even chance now.

Our one hope is that Melb are still playing some terrible footy at the moment.

Go Crows!!!! And not wanting to spoil the "occasion" but here's hoping the tribunal gives Fev an early mark for the season!!!

Otherwise it appears our finals campaign will be

wk 1 home to the Dogs
wk 2 away to WC or Melb (prob WC)
wk 3 away to Adel or Freo (most likely)
wk 4 - seriously if we get this far who the **** cares who we play!!

 

[Sid]

I dont think we'll get top 4 but we should comfortably beat the dogs at home.

 

[bigswan]

If Adelaide are 100% sreious surely thay can beat Melbourne at AAMI. Melbourne haven't played a full game out for the last 4 games. But I'm vstill worried.

 

[Tuco]

Well how big is the Richmond vs WC game in Melb now? Rich are in excellent form averaging 20+ goals a week playing exactly the running style that Freo exposed the Eagles with this week.

It's a must win for the Coasters in a way. They can't become minor premiers without it. But they'll badly want to get that title. Because if Richmond win, and Adel pulls the finger out and gets victory against the Demons, we'll be having another brutal Derby week 1 of the finals!!! Ouch. (I'm making the guess that Freo won't drop the game against Port at home - despite Port's wonderful team effort on the weekend.)

This ^^^ scenario will also mean (assuming a win against Carlton, of course) that we travel to Adel week 1 as underdogs, but against a team on the wobbles with form and injury concerns.

 

[music_2000]

Now I really doubt that we can make the 4 even if we beat Carlton but you have to look back at the past and remember it can be done. Adelaide won from 5th in 1998 to get their second premiership but they were down 4 goals with 5 mins left in their semi final game and only barely made it in

 

[Tuco]

Now I really doubt that we can make the 4 even if we beat Carlton but you have to look back at the past and remember it can be done. Adelaide won from 5th in 1998 to get their second premiership but they were down 4 goals with 5 mins left in their semi final game and only barely made it in

It all comes down to Adel vs Melb.

Pretty fantastic end to the year really. Nothing known until Syd and Coll finish 5pm on Sun!!!

 

[is2SWaNz]

Pretty fantastic end to the year really. Nothing known until Syd and Coll finish 5pm on Sun!!!

And hope the results go our way... =[

seriously, i'm having doubts. Adelaide are very wobbly at the moment, and against Port on Sunday they shut off in the last quarter. Can they beat the Demons? They can but not very certain.

We shouldn't worry much about 3rd spot, it's freo's. I know for certain they'll defeat Port. After how they played against WC....

 

[natlovestheswans]

God Adelaide have some really bad injuries. Roo, McLeod, Hart, Hentschell, Bassett..

Not looking good at all.

 

[is2SWaNz]

all of a sudden everything looks bad for the swans, only have after a few weeks ago we thought we had more of an even chance. ohh the possibilities and unpredictable things of AFL. I hate it!