Top Tasmanian Draft Prospects for 2012

[Tazwegian]

Some guy over on fanfooty compiled a list of highest dream team scorers for the Championships, with Jackson Thurlow coming second. Sure, Dream Team scores aren't the be and end all, but I decided to add my own spin on his list and add Chris25's respected draft predictions for each of these players on the list.

Top 10 Dream Team scores for the Championships:

1. Ben Kennedy - 486 - South Australia (Pick #20)
2. Jackson Thurlow - 474 - Tasmania (Pick #65)
3. Brodie Grundy - 464 - South Australia (Pick #2)
4. Matthew McDonough - 458 - South Australia (Pick #28)
5. Nathan Hrovat - 448 - Vic Metro (Pick #33)
6. Jackson Macrae - 445 - Vic Metro (Pick #11)
7. Jed Anderson - 412 - Northern Territory (NT Zone)
8. Matthew Scharenberg - 410 - South Australia (Ineligible)
9. Isaac Conway - 409 - Queensland (Ineligible)
10. Jack Martin - 407 - Western Australia (Mini Draft)

Is Jackson Thurlow the most underrated prospective draft pick? Three of the six guys eligible for the draft on this list are first round selections. Thurlow is 32 picks away from the next eligible player on the list and that player is Hrovat, who many have going within the first round and Chris25 himself is conflicted about putting him so low.

On a side note, Jesse Lonergan scored 236 points, which is the highest out of all the players who played three games. If you multiply his score out to account for the two missed games, he gets a total of 391, which puts him just outside the top 10. Not bad considering it was his first games after a major injury.

Links:

Noz at fanfooty provided the DT scores:

http://www.fanfooty.com.au/forum/index.php?topic=69078.0

Chris25's phantom draft thread:

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/young-talent-time-a-2012-mock-draft.956131/page-10

 

[keen_eye_]

http://www.themercury.com.au/article/2012/11/06/365428_afl.html

seems the old blokes getting a bit of interest

 

[Tazwegian]

http://www.themercury.com.au/article/2012/11/06/365428_afl.html

seems the old blokes getting a bit of interest

Yeah, good find. I should really add him to the OP. His video is pretty impressive. Could be a Tim Mohr mk II.

 

[gotassieboys]

Hi Tazwegian

I would be very interested in the type/size players that appear to have had their AFL careers ended.

On the surface it appears the smaller midfields have taken the brunt of the axings.

Obviously Collingwood moved on Brown & Ceglar(?), but on the surface not that many rucks or KPP moved on.

Looking forward to your thoughts.

 

[Tazwegian]

Hi Tazwegian

I would be very interested in the type/size players that appear to have had their AFL careers ended.

This is not something that I have put much thought into, sorry. I imagine, intuitively, that smaller players are given less time to develop their games at AFL level to a high standard, and there would be more pressure for them to continue to perform. I think this is mainly because they are less versatile, and therefore there is less room for them in a team. Players around 190cms can fill a variety of roles, from midfield, to forward, to third man up type roles in defense. Guys around 175cms can really only play as inside mid, or small forward, with perhaps a back pocket role on your Milne types, but they are definitely not ideal for that role, or really for any role unless they are exceptionally good. So you would expect guys around 175cm to have far more pressure on their spot than similarly skilled players that are around 185-190cms.

It would take way too much time to do a statistical analysis of their retention at AFL level. You might be interested in my latest post in Chris25's thread. Size gets mentioned a couple of times (particularly Boston and Hrovat's sizes), as I look at where under 18s AA players are ranked by phantom drafters.

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/young-talent-time-a-2012-mock-draft.956131/page-35

 

[gotassieboys]

This is not something that I have put much thought into, sorry. I imagine, intuitively, that smaller players are given less time to develop their games at AFL level to a high standard, and there would be more pressure for them to continue to perform. I think this is mainly because they are less versatile, and therefore there is less room for them in a team. Players around 190cms can fill a variety of roles, from midfield, to forward, to third man up type roles in defense. Guys around 175cms can really only play as inside mid, or small forward, with perhaps a back pocket role on your Milne types, but they are definitely not ideal for that role, or really for any role unless they are exceptionally good. So you would expect guys around 175cm to have far more pressure on their spot than similarly skilled players that are around 185-190cms.

It would take way too much time to do a statistical analysis of their retention at AFL level. You might be interested in my latest post in Chris25's thread. Size gets mentioned a couple of times (particularly Boston and Hrovat's sizes), as I look at where under 18s AA players are ranked by phantom drafters.

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/young-talent-time-a-2012-mock-draft.956131/page-35

Thanks Tazwegian your thoughts are very much appreciated.

 

[The Big H]

I've heard (from pretty reliable sources) that Collingwood are frequently in contact with Jesse and have said they will try and pick him up with one of their first round draft picks (18,19,21).

They have also expressed interest in Nankervis, who I would suggest is a better chance than most think to get picked up. Have you seen the size of the kid? Gigantic and good skills and very few ruckman were invited to the draft. The potential for him to beome a genuine ruckman is there for any interested club.

I've been talking to an extremely reliabe source that quite a few clubs have expressed a lot of interest! But the main two have been Collingwood and Richmond.

 

[Tazwegian]

I've been talking to an extremely reliabe source that quite a few clubs have expressed a lot of interest! But the main two have been Collingwood and Richmond.

Richmond have nine and thirty four. Doubt he will slip to 34, but will they take him at 9? Seems a bit of a stretch, but Jesse has massive upside and I doubt it would prove to be the worst pick #9 in history. I think Collingwood are the most likely, which would be nice. Be good to have a couple of Tassies at Collingwood. Tired of them all going to the expansion teams.

 

[madmug]

I heard from a basketball watching mate of mine that their may yet be another Tasmanian Basketballer picked up as a rookie in the draft. He wouldnt say who because he 'accidentaly' heard it so said it wouldnt be fair to put a name to it yet, but their cant be too many about that would fit the criteria, ie at least 200cm. He wouldnt say if he was at the AIS, in the US college system. here at the Chargers or Thunder or somewhere else playing. I guess we will hear if it happens. Maybe the best way to get recruited from Tassie is via Basketball!!!

 

[Big Pun]

Richmond have nine and thirty four. Doubt he will slip to 34, but will they take him at 9? Seems a bit of a stretch, but Jesse has massive upside and I doubt it would prove to be the worst pick #9 in history. I think Collingwood are the most likely, which would be nice. Be good to have a couple of Tassies at Collingwood. Tired of them all going to the expansion teams.

If Rocket Eade is still at the magpies i doubt he will go there. Makes you wonder though, if big Jesse didnt fit the AFLTas criteria to play in the state game, how on earth can he make it to the big league

 

[keen_eye_]

If Rocket Eade is still at the magpies i doubt he will go there. Makes you wonder though, if big Jesse didnt fit the AFLTas criteria to play in the state game, how on earth can he make it to the big league

yeah because AFL Tas did such a great job in selecting the state team........

 

[Tazwegian]

Makes you wonder though, if big Jesse didnt fit the AFLTas criteria to play in the state game, how on earth can he make it to the big league

None of the draft aged kids played. But I think that was because, from memory, it was on around the same time as the champs. Jesse was injured anyway at that stage.

 

[pirateboy]

None of the draft aged kids played. But I think that was because, from memory, it was on around the same time as the champs. Jesse was injured anyway at that stage.

Sorry, but which Jesse are we talking about??? Jesse Lonergan will go and high. But I thought some one brought up Jesse Wells. I remember up here on the coast a former coach of his, who shall remain nameless, reminded many that Jesse was said to be the worst draft pick by the western Bulldogs... ever. It was a comment that apparently the people of the doggies said. Now this is harsh, however, I wouldn't have thought Wells was much of a mature age recruit. I wouldn't have him in my best team in Tas, let alone as the best bigman or even top 3 bigmen.

Laycock,Cassidy, Reynolds, Lee, Drury and so on... these are all versitile too. Wells probably didnt get put in the state team because he simply wasn't good enough. Although that selection was a debacle

 

[Tazwegian]

Sorry, but which Jesse are we talking about??? Jesse Lonergan will go and high. But I thought some one brought up Jesse Wells. I remember up here on the coast a former coach of his, who shall remain nameless, reminded many that Jesse was said to be the worst draft pick by the western Bulldogs... ever. It was a comment that apparently the people of the doggies said. Now this is harsh, however, I wouldn't have thought Wells was much of a mature age recruit. I wouldn't have him in my best team in Tas, let alone as the best bigman or even top 3 bigmen.

Laycock,Cassidy, Reynolds, Lee, Drury and so on... these are all versitile too. Wells probably didnt get put in the state team because he simply wasn't good enough. Although that selection was a debacle

My bad, I was talking about Lonergan, but you're right. I reread Big Pun's post and I think he was talking about Wells on second glance. Pretty sure BoxBrigade was talking about Lonergan also earlier, because I doubt that Collingwood would be using a first rounder on Wells I'll just call them by their last names from now on.

 

[pirateboy]

My bad, I was talking about Lonergan, but you're right. I reread Big Pun's post and I think he was talking about Wells on second glance. Pretty sure BoxBrigade was talking about Lonergan also earlier, because I doubt that Collingwood would be using a first rounder on Wells I'll just call them by their last names from now on.

All good, yeah I was getting a little worried seeing Wells at #9! I might have to make a come back to TSL!

That dream team thing doesn't really say much though. Jackson Thurlow has 45 touches and 17 marks or something one game- that game alone would hav scored him 240 pts. The only 0 Thurlow scored in the states that day was opponents. Played loose... Do think the guy can play and will go (45-70) range (big range)

 

[Tazwegian]

That dream team thing doesn't really say much though. Jackson Thurlow has 45 touches and 17 marks or something one game- that game alone would hav scored him 240 pts. The only 0 Thurlow scored in the states that day was opponents. Played loose... Do think the guy can play and will go (45-70) range (big range)

It got him 160 points. Even if you remove that game, he still averaged 80. But, like others have said, Thurlow was also played forward and through the middle in that 160 point game. He was moved around even to more extent in the subsequent games, he probably would have scored a lot more if he was simply played down back flank like a Birchall role all champs. He scored 114, 69, 81, and 46 in the other games, so hardly a poor effort for a utility type and since his 160 came against very strong opposition, it should still absolutely be counted. It should be noted too that Thurlow's 46 DT point game came in an extremely low DT scoring game, Lonergan's 89 was the highest on the day, and nobody got 20+ touches, so it was hardly a poor game by Thurlow. In fact, his 14 touches were actually the third most by any Tassie player, which shows what a low possession game it was.

In the games that I saw, he was very hard to beat 1 v 1 in the air or on the ground. Good disposal too.

But, I have discussed it at leeeeeeength over on Chris25's thread called 'Young Talent Time' on the phantom drafts board. Check it out if you like, I have answered a bunch of objections over there and did another analysis where I showed all the under 18s AA squad and their predicted draft order. It was interesting that every eligible AA from this year was tipped to go in the top 33, except for Thurlow and Boston. They are the only two eligible div 2 teams, and they were both 60+ selections.

 

[Hobartcityholligans]

Wells not good enough? I know when he first came to Hobart i was a bit worried, but he is a totally different player than 3 seasons ago! i believe that Reynolds is now a backman cause everytime Wells played on him he couldnt get a kick. He started playing back everytime north played Glenorchy! he looked out of place and slow in the state game. So did the Tasmanian captain he had 3 kicks off the top of my head. I have also seen him take Cassidy to the cleaners a couple of times! i rate Mitch Hills above the lot i have mentioned. I didnt know till the other night that Wells missed 3 games and still one norths b and f. i remember when north played lauderdale he played back all day and was switched forward i think he kicked 5 in the last and nearly pinched the game. Not many of those players could do that! Laycock the acception!

 

[Tazwegian]

Stoked that Shifter has picked Thurlow in his top 30. Jesse's selection was no surprise, but over the moon that Shifter has recognised Thurlow's talent as well. Gives me a lot of hope and confidence that he will be picked up as he ought to be.

This is Shifter's write up on Thurlow:

Jackson Thurlow

AFL Profile:

Medium defender who reads the play exceptionally well cutting off opposition forward moves and
providing a running option on the way out. Averaged 24.6 disposals and 6.6 marks winning All
Australian honours in the 2012 NAB AFL Under 18 Championships.

NAB AFL Combine Results: Running Vertical Jump Left – 86cm (Top 11%)

X-factor: “Terrific decision maker including knowing when to attack and when to defend.
Executes superbly by foot.”

Q&A with Jackson Thurlow:

What type of player are you?

I’m athletic, good under pressure, ball user, competitive and strong overhead,

What are your strengths as a footballer?

My strengths are kicking and ball use, decision making under pressure, marking, being able to play
all over the ground, appetite for contest.

What parts of your game would you like to improve?

I would like to improve my strength in general, tackling, contested marking.

Which AFL player do you feel you resemble and why?

Brendan Goddard – he plays all over the ground and uses the ball well. He kicks with penetration
and is also very competitive.

 

[BoxBrigade]

Good to see both Jesse and Jackson in Shifters top 30.

Noticed this one on the AFL site - top 30 count down. Currently at 14 and no Jesse nor Jackson surprisingly.

http://www.afl.com.au/Offseason/Draft/DraftCountdown/tabid/19852/Default.aspx

 

[Tazwegian]

Good to see both Jesse and Jackson in Shifters top 30.

Noticed this one on the AFL site - top 30 count down. Currently at 14 and no Jesse nor Jackson surprisingly.

http://www.afl.com.au/Offseason/Draft/DraftCountdown/tabid/19852/Default.aspx

Yeah, I have been waiting for Lonergan or Thurlow to make an appearance. Trying to see which of the Silhouettes resembles either. There are a couple that look a bit like Lonergan. 8 and 3 maybe. Pretty hard to tell though lol.

 

[Tazwegian]

Don't know if you guys have checked this out yet, but it's a pretty awesome tool. I did some testing and it seems that it is ranking players correctly as per their attributes. Thurlow dominates the tall defender rankings in overall attributes. 1st in possession winning and spring and power. 2nd in kicking. 3rd in agility. 4th in marking. 5th in endurance (just below Siggins). 11th in handball awareness, and around 15th or so in pace. If you choose all categories at once, he comes up second overall. Just behind Clurey, who is widely tipped as a top 20 pick.

Josh Woolley features pretty well on this also. Siggins not so much, but he is a KPD, and he features in the categories that should count for that position, like Power and Spring and Endurance. Possession winning is obviously not his thing. But would have liked to see him rank in pace and agility.

http://draftmachine.afl.com.au/

 

[gotassieboys]

Don't know if you guys have checked this out yet, but it's a pretty awesome tool. I did some testing and it seems that it is ranking players correctly as per their attributes. Thurlow dominates the tall defender rankings in overall attributes. 1st in possession winning and spring and power. 2nd in kicking. 3rd in agility. 4th in marking. 5th in endurance (just below Siggins). 11th in handball awareness, and around 15th or so in pace. If you choose all categories at once, he comes up second overall. Just behind Clurey, who is widely tipped as a top 20 pick.

Josh Woolley features pretty well on this also. Siggins not so much, but he is a KPD, and he features in the categories that should count for that position, like Power and Spring and Endurance. Possession winning is obviously not his thing. But would have liked to see him rank in pace and agility.

http://draftmachine.afl.com.au/

Hi Tazwegian
It is time to put my neck on the line and make some predictions for the upcoming draft.

1. Lonergan is logically the first pick out of Tassie and could possibly play seniors next year depending on the club that takes him.

2. Siggins is my smokey to be the next Tassie boy taken. My reasoning is he has the attributes that clubs look for in a KPP. People get caught up in the "now" factor and forget that quality KPD/KPF are very rare and take time to mature. Although he missed Carnival games, recruiters would have enough data on him to realise his upside.

3. Thurlow is my final U/18 kid to be drafted. He is competing against a lot of similar type players from the big island. However his ability to run lines and hit targets makes him an attractive proposition.

My long, long, long shots in no particular order are:

1.Wells: He might just have enough "what if" factor that a club may give him a go. The critical shortage of tall/strong defenders goes in his favour.

2. Nankervis: A big lad who came in late into the Mariners (similar to Philips-GWS). Although he is green, he might fit the term project nicely.

3. Van den Berg: Adelaide via Hamish McIntosh may just think that this kid could be worth a chance.

4. Hibberd: This kid suffered from the lack of exposure that kids in Victoria (don't start me on McKenzie!!) do not have to deal with in their attempt to be noticed. Sure he is not flashy, but his KPI's are as good as they go, particularly against the so called "certain draftees" he played against in the Carnival.

5. Musicka: No doubting his football ability. It is whether he blew his chances with his attitude in 2011. His performance against the VFL Representative side may have just re-ignited his chances.

6. Bowden: Not much more this kid can do to be drafted. Once again I am thinking Adelaide FC might have serious look at him. Otherwise he is apparently considering the SANFL as a last ditch.

The above guys are more likely rookie material as the clubs can cut their losses if it doesn't work out.

I also think the "Go Home Factor" is seriously a big positive for our boys. Clubs must seriously be annoyed when a kid (aka Gunston) opts to return to their home state.

I am trying not to get caught up in the hype of draft time and analyse what recruiters look for in a player.

Heck I am probably wrong but at least it makes for interesting discussion!

 

[Tazwegian]

Hi Tazwegian

It is time to put my neck on the line and make some predictions for the upcoming draft.

I like your predictions, and pretty much agree with them. I have altered mine a little recently.

I have Lonergan top 25.

Thurlow at #38 (as the middle of a + or - 10 draft range).

Siggins as a possible third rounder.

Mitch Van den Berg may go late.

I don't really like Nankervis's chances, but you can't rule him out completely. Maybe a a late pick.

I am starting to like Woolley as our best rookie hope. Mainly because of age, but also he has all the right attributes to play AFL. He's a bit of a long shot, but I am backing him in. Then in order: Jones, Bowden, and Wells.

I am not actually worried about Thurlow's position. Because he is a utility, he can be played forward or back. He is actually one of the better utilities in the draft. I rate him pretty highly, and he has absolutely everything going for him. People may look back at where he was taken in this draft and consider him one of the bargains in five years time. But, I could be wrong too.

 

[Tazwegian]

I heard from a basketball watching mate of mine that their may yet be another Tasmanian Basketballer picked up as a rookie in the draft. He wouldnt say who because he 'accidentaly' heard it so said it wouldnt be fair to put a name to it yet, but their cant be too many about that would fit the criteria, ie at least 200cm.

This is correct also. Read it in the Mercury. Adelaide recruited a guy called Jack Osborn, who is a 205cm! basketballer from Tassie. Absolutely massive unit. Should be interesting to see if he can develop into a player.

That's two Tasmanians drafted, and it's still two weeks from draft day Good start.

 

[gotassieboys]

I like your predictions, and pretty much agree with them. I have altered mine a little recently.

I have Lonergan top 25.

Thurlow at #38 (as the middle of a + or - 10 draft range).

Siggins as a possible third rounder.

Mitch Van den Berg may go late.

I don't really like Nankervis's chances, but you can't rule him out completely. Maybe a a late pick.

I am starting to like Woolley as our best rookie hope. Mainly because of age, but also he has all the right attributes to play AFL. He's a bit of a long shot, but I am backing him in. Then in order: Jones, Bowden, and Wells.

I am not actually worried about Thurlow's position. Because he is a utility, he can be played forward or back. He is actually one of the better utilities in the draft. I rate him pretty highly, and he has absolutely everything going for him. People may look back at where he was taken in this draft and consider him one of the bargains in five years time. But, I could be wrong too.

I like your predictions, and pretty much agree with them. I have altered mine a little recently.

I have Lonergan top 25.

Thurlow at #38 (as the middle of a + or - 10 draft range).

Siggins as a possible third rounder.

Mitch Van den Berg may go late.

I don't really like Nankervis's chances, but you can't rule him out completely. Maybe a a late pick.

I am starting to like Woolley as our best rookie hope. Mainly because of age, but also he has all the right attributes to play AFL. He's a bit of a long shot, but I am backing him in. Then in order: Jones, Bowden, and Wells.

I am not actually worried about Thurlow's position. Because he is a utility, he can be played forward or back. He is actually one of the better utilities in the draft. I rate him pretty highly, and he has absolutely everything going for him. People may look back at where he was taken in this draft and consider him one of the bargains in five years time. But, I could be wrong too.

Hi Tazwegian

I have to agree with your thoughts on the boys. I have attempted to determine the thoughts of a recruiter, particularly after the 2011 draft. It certainly is a fine line between being drafted or passed up.

I probably weight the upside more than most and hence my thoughts on Sam Siggins due to his height of 194cm, athleticism and obviously his football ability.

From memory he had very good 3km times and beep tests. I have heard that he has talked to 17 of the AFL clubs. I wonder who did not talk to him!

Sam Siggins displays similar attributes that Henry Schade (drafted 2011 first round @ 24 to GCS) displays. Although I would probably say that Siggins is better aerobically and can play back or forward. I think he is more of a forward and he is a very good judge of the overhead mark.

He has certain attributes to Cameron of GWS, who by the way is going to be a beauty.

If a club is prepared to invest in Siggins with weight training and exposure in the AFL system than this kid could be a major KPP in the AFL in 3-4 years.

It would also being interesting to critique all the Tassie boys on AFL lists once the silly season (drafts) are over. Obviously Tassie have been savaged with the recent delistings and it would be an interesting exercise to see where they sit in the overall pecking order of clubs and AFL.