Racing VRC Derby 2025

[Optimistic Dog]

Is the Derby all over. You would think so, with Observer bred to run the ground and Attica being spelled. I have Deal Done Fast going in a good sized multi but only rough chance, think he will stay the ground. The only saving grace is only 5 of last 37 Vase winners have gone on to win the derby.

 

[HeathySure]

Besides Observer you can completely wipe any Victorian horse. Most will struggle to win a BM58 when they hit open class. Every time they go around they finish in a bunch in very slow times.

The 2 behind Observer were Sydney horses. Providence looked the better run but on closer inspection O'Shaemus should have run 2nd, It was held up at a crucial moment and actually hit the line really well under no pressure

I think the rankings are
Observer



O'Shamues
Providence

Meiwa best of the Vics

the rest are hopeless

If another Sydney stayer did come down that ran yesterday would be a place chance

 

[miracleman]

I think Deal Done Fast is a chance at odds, held up two starts back and didnt get around Caulfield last start, hopefully gets the trip and will be there abouts

 

[Jugada]

Really like Deal Done Fast too. That Flemington run at just his second start screamed Derby

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Besides Observer you can completely wipe any Victorian horse. Most will struggle to win a BM58 when they hit open class. Every time they go around they finish in a bunch in very slow times.

The 2 behind Observer were Sydney horses. Providence looked the better run but on closer inspection O'Shaemus should have run 2nd, It was held up at a crucial moment and actually hit the line really well under no pressure

I think the rankings are
Observer



O'Shamues
Providence

Meiwa best of the Vics

the rest are hopeless

If another Sydney stayer did come down that ran yesterday would be a place chance

Autumn Mystery has done nothing wrong it is not without a winning chance

 

[quicksmart]

The VRC Derby for 2025 is set for Saturday, 1 November at Flemington, kicking off the Melbourne Cup Carnival. It’s a 2500m staying test for three-year-olds under set weights, with $2 million in prize money and $1.2 million to the winner. This race is always a highlight for punters and fans alike.


The key contenders this year include Observer, the Moonee Valley Vase winner and current favorite at $5, and Options, the Vase runner-up and Godolphin stablemate at $9. Other strong chances are Miewa at $5, Engine of War at $5.50, and Arabian Prince at $6. For those looking for value, Autumn Mystery sits at $9 and could be a smoky for exotics.


Looking at the speed map, expect a genuine tempo early. Engine of War and Arabian Prince are likely to push forward from mid barriers, while Observer and Options should settle just behind the leaders to conserve energy for the long Flemington straight. Miewa and Autumn Mystery will probably slot into midfield positions, aiming for a late surge, while any roughies drawn wide will drop back and hope for a tempo collapse.


Barrier draws are crucial in this race. Historically, inside gates (1–7) have produced more winners, thanks to the shorter run to the first turn and easier cover. If Observer draws inside five, it strengthens its case as the top pick. Wide gates (14+) are a tough ask unless the horse has tactical speed, as they risk burning energy early. Arabian Prince will need a mid barrier for its best chance too wide could ruin its tempo.


For betting strategies, Observer looks the standout based on form and potential barrier advantage. Include Options, Miewa, and Engine of War in exotics, and consider Autumn Mystery for trifectas and first fours as a value play.


What do you think? Who handles the 2500m best? Does Observer dominate, or will a value runner surprise? Share your speed map predictions and barrier draw reactions below!

 

[HeathySure]

Autumn Mystery has done nothing wrong it is not without a winning chance

It finished in a pack with Options who got destroyed by Observer That form is irrelevant, The fillies went faster and they are terrible too

 

[blackspider]

I thought Options didn't have a whole lot of luck at the valley. Might give it another shot in the Derby, better suited to Flemington.

 

[Jugada]

$41 about DDF seems crazy

 

[Optimistic Dog]

$41 about DDF seems crazy

Agree outside Observer and maybe Providence his runs are as good as any other horse in the race and think he will run a strong 2,500 metres. Outstanding value for the place and some winning chance.]

 

[Optimistic Dog]

Watched all the derby replays since 2005 on 78 last night. Nearly all of the races were run at a genuine speed. Possibly because of a large field sizes and the starting position.

This means it is likely this edition will run at a good tempo, with the increase in distance and most of the lead up races being a jog and a sprint home this race is a different ball game.

The $64 question does this suit the favourite. I guess the short answer is no because if it was a jog he would have to much brilliance and class and wins for sure. At least if it is staying test, we do not know his ability to get the trip although breeding wise you would think he would get the 2,500m. So, is $2.20 too short to find out?

 

[badusername]

I know nothing about this race but FYI Bet365 are offering a free hit ($30 bonus back if your bet loses).

 

[PieBeast]

Just some mail I got from a couple of different sources

Today
Ascot r4 - 5 Astro World
Flemington r2 - 9 Teine Aulelei
Flemington r7 - 5 Options E/W
Morphetville - r8 - 7 Capitalex

Wednesday
Kyneton r8 - Legio Ten E/W

Very keen on Idle Flyer in Empire Rose myself

Options and Deal Done Fast are nice collects for me in the Derby

Gamble responsibly

 

[manicpie]

Just some mail I got from a couple of different sources

Today
Ascot r4 - 5 Astro World
Flemington r2 - 9 Teine Aulelei
Flemington r7 - 5 Options E/W
Morphetville - r8 - 7 Capitalex

Wednesday
Kyneton r8 - Legio Ten E/W

Very keen on Idle Flyer in Empire Rose myself

Options and Deal Done Fast are nice collects for me in the Derby

Gamble responsibly

Melbourne Cup. Valiant King as long as it doesn't rain too much

 

[chunkylover]

Channel 9 race coverage unbearable. Drone shot, inside rail shot, back to drone shot, finally get the traditional angle 300m to go. Why do these 4 race meetings a year ****wits think they can improve the coverage over broadcasters that have been doing it for years. Channel 78 racing.com grainy footage more preferable. Rant over

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

**** me, when did Ariana Tithead retire and focus on her media career because she can’t be ****ed swimming anymore?

This has everything to do with horse racing Channel 9

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

The we go to Jelena Dojoc for fashions on the field, probably the least glamorous person on the planet.

 

[Peter Doherty]

That guy was wearing a dress?

 

[Joker91]

That guy was wearing a dress?

The new norm for the woke society

Disgusting

 

[Peter Doherty]

The new norm for the woke society

Disgusting

Bloody woke agenda.

 

[Veer Right]

We all got to be cashed up after the first 4 races. Let's hope it continues!

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Enxuto been butchered twice in a row now. Dumb jockeys.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Betr have these specials if anyone’s interested

 

[Veer Right]

Flemington Quaddie

1,10
1,9
1,2,6
2,3,5,8,13,15
69%

 

[spike101]

Flemington Quaddie

1,10
1,9
1,2,6
2,3,5,8,13,15
69%

You are out, 3 was a certainty. I can’t watch because of the ghastly McGuire but I saw him and Francesca sitting miles apart,
; is Covid back or does he smell?